- Jul 20, 2009
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Trump won Ohio by 8 points. It's probably out of reach for any Dem not named Sherod Brown.I'm not going to say that Bernie will have a Rooseveltian landslid but I will say that he is able to change the electorate. He will change it at the margins but that's enough because that's how elections are decided.
Bernie will poach some of Trump's most marginal voters, he will have more students voting, he will have more voters making less than 40k, he will bring in more naturalized citizens who don't speak English. Despite all the stereotyping and mystification up on the debate stages, the midwest has lots of those hitherto unactivated voters. As does the South, for that matter.
It also seems like Dems are too pessimistic about the 2020 election. Dems were too optimistic about their chances in 2016, bouyed by the narrative about "demographics as destiny" and wins in 2008 and 2012, Dems were gut punched in 2016 and act like numerous States, which Obama won in 2012, are unwinnable.
Trump won Florida, Ohio, Pensylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan by some fairly small margins. Trump could get beaten pretty badly in the electoral college with the right mobilization game.
Florida's voter suppression gonna be kicked up to max level. And from my understanding Trump's approval ratings are not in the tank there like they are in other swing States. So I would not bet on it.
Zona and NC, especially AZ, seem like better prospects.
And I agree that Dems are too pessimistic about Bernie's chances. I don't have the faith that his name being on the ticket will drive that much extra turnout. I think Bernie supporters overestimate the power of his candidacy. I think the thing people are not considering is negative partisanship. Left wing voters of all kinds ******* hate Trump, and will show up to vote Trump out, regardless of who runs.