A perspective of the Dwight saga from Kobe about Free Agency:
“You have to look at it from a business perspective as well as from your career’s point of view with what team you’ll have the most success with and win championships,” Bryant said. “It’s hard because a lot of times those two things don’t align. That’s where you have to make split decisions and wind up splitting hairs some of the time. But you have to put your business hat on too. I know it’s not a very popular thing for athletes to do at times. But you have to.”
So when you get to thinking about the two sides of it:
Championship Side:
Think about 2013, a Dwight Howard Lakers team, and a Dwight Howard Rockets team. Neither are favorites to contend, and I'll even go as far to say the Lakers would have a better shot strictly based off the razor thin team the Rockets would have.
Then you think about 2014-2017 season. Lakers have missed the playoffs 4 times in 53 seasons (since moving to LA). Rockets have 3 since the last time the Lakers have missed the playoffs the last time. Lakers looked in peril in mid-90s (boom Land Shaq), look in trouble in mid 00s (boom land Pau). Everyone expects Lakers to not make any moves 12 months ago (land Nash & Howard for nothing and become favorites to win).
He gets an unrestricted roster, in which he gets to be the center piece that is built around. It's his franchise. He's the man.
Do the Rockets have a significantly better chance of winning a title than the Lakers this upcoming year? Absolutely not.
Is it a significantly better chance that Rockets win in next 5 years and Lakers don't? Not really.
But because there is uncertainty in what the Lakers look like in 3 years, you give the edge to Houston. If it's 100% chance. 55-45 Rockets only because there is no idea of what the Lakers put together in 2014.
Business Side:
Overwhelmingly in the Lakers favor. Everyone you ask, even those that say he's leaving know Dwight loves Los Angeles. It is everything he is about, and offers everything he wants to be.
More money, more security, more off-court opportunity, more endorsements, and is the town for his personality.
The word legacy gets thrown around a lot. Dwight cares about his image and legacy. LA is where he repairs himself.
Don't even have to bother putting it in percentage form, it isn't even close. Even with the state tax angle that almost no athlete cares about.