It's hard to imagine a coach enjoying a more important week than the one Oregon State first-year head man
Craig Robinson just had.
His Beavers, an 0-18 laughingstock in the Pac-10 last year, pulled off consecutive road upsets at Cal and Stanford for their second and third league wins,with 10 conference games left. Oh, and on Tuesday, Robinson attended the inauguration of his brother-in-law,
Barack Obama.
Apparently, both on and off the court, yes, he can.
Why is this relevant to the Bubble Watch? Because upsets like these are happening every day, changing the texture of the NCAA tournament. Despite whatgridiron enthusiasts claim, every game in college basketball
does matter. Teams like Oregon State won't be in this year's NCAA tournament, butthey will play a huge role in determining who will, and how favorable their seedings will be.
In the interim, for other long-suffering basketball towns, Robinson's impact in Corvallis proves you just need the right coach at the right time toinspire basketball change you can believe in.
(Records listed are Division I only, per NCAA tournament selection guidelines. All RPI and SOS data are from Sunday's
collegerpi.com RPIreport.)
[h3]ACC[/h3]
Locks: Duke, Wake Forest, North Carolina, Clemson
Nothing's changed in this category despite Clemson's blowout loss at UNC last week. No team in the country would have survived thatsecond-half Heels surge. Anyone looking forward to Duke-Wake Wednesday night?
SHOULD BE IN
Florida State (16-4, 3-2; RPI: 18; SOS: 32) still looks to be next in line after splitting road games at Miami and Virginia. The Noles have ahuge chance on Wednesday against UNC to get the marquee win they lack.
IN THE MIX
Virginia Tech (14-5, 4-1; RPI: 38; SOS: 53) is coming off a huge week after winning at Wake Forest and Miami. Imagine how well situated theHokies would be if they had slightly better luck. Their first four losses were by a total of eight points, including a half-court buzzer-beater by Xavier.Unfortunately, Tech has nothing out-of-league to fall back on. Next up: Clemson at home Thursday night.
Miami (13-5, 3-3; RPI: 29; SOS: 21)followed an important win over Florida State with a loss to Virginia Tech. Now the Canes must take care of road business at N.C. State and Maryland, becausethe next three after that (Wake, at Duke, UNC) are brutal.
Boston College (15-6, 3-3; RPI: 56; SOS: 5
ended its four-game skid by toppling league minnows Georgia Tech and N.C. State. The Eagleswill need more to go with the road upset of UNC, but the next three games are winnable.
Maryland (13-6, 2-3; RPI: 65; SOS: 90) has two virtualmust-wins at home this week. The Terps didn't look like an NCAA-caliber team at Cameron.
[h3]Big 12[/h3]
Locks: Oklahoma
The gap is widening between Oklahoma and the rest of this conference as the teams below the Sooners continue to pick each other off. The separation will begood for OU's push for a No. 1 seed.
SHOULD BE IN
Texas (14-4, 3-1; RPI: 27; SOS: 4 is still next in the Big 12 pecking order after rallying past Texas A&M at home. Nonleague wins over UCLA,Villanova and at Wisconsin are losing some luster but remain solid.
IN THE MIX
After the Horns, it's close, but
Baylor (14-4, 3-2; RPI: 35; SOS: 49), which hosts Texas on Tuesday, is coming on strong. The Bears have athree-game stretch that includes at Missouri and home to Kansas, so things could change quickly. You also could make arguments for those two teams, both ofwhom swept two league games and have taken advantage of fairly favorable league schedules.
Kansas (15-4, 4-0; RPI: 34; SOS: 59) arguably hasbetter nonleague wins than Baylor but also has worse losses.
Missouri (16-3, 4-1; RPI: 31; SOS: 76) has a less impressive nonleague slate buthas a solid two-point win at
Oklahoma State (13-5, 2-2; RPI: 26; SOS: 11), which also has lost at Baylor. The Pokes continue to have adeceptively good computer profile with relatively little in it. Their best nonconference win remains fellow computer-monster Siena.
Texas A&M(14-5, 1-4; RPI: 50; SOS: 75) is hurt by a brutal conference schedule and might not survive long enough to get to the softer final five gamesintact.
[h3]Big East[/h3]
Locks: Pitt, Connecticut, Louisville, Marquette, Syracuse
Early Sunday, it looked like the Big East would have six in this category, but Georgetown took a step back by losing at Seton Hall. Syracuse can stay, for now,and Marquette jumps up, too.
SHOULD BE IN
Being a schedule monster only takes you so far. If you're
Georgetown (12-6, 3-4; RPI: 9; SOS: 1), it takes you as far as an inexcusableloss Sunday at Seton Hall. On the tails of getting destroyed at home by West Virginia, the Hoyas drop a category this week. They have beaten Memphis, UConn andSyracuse, so they're definitely capable, but the Hoyas have now lost five of seven. Next up is a test at Cincinnati on Wednesday before visiting Marquettenext weekend.
West Virginia (14-5, 3-3; RPI: 15; SOS: 24) had a pretty solid week, throttling Georgetown before playing Pitt tough beforelosing at home. The Georgetown win aids a profile that should get some injury credit, too. The Mountaineers still have road games at Louisville and Syracusecoming up.
IN THE MIX
Villanova (15-4, 3-3; RPI: 28; SOS: 54) remains the Oklahoma State of the Big East, with solid computer numbers masking a veryhollow profile. The Cats played UConn tough and won at USF, but at some point, they need to beat someone in the league that's actually threatening to makethe NCAAs.
Would that include
Notre Dame (11-6, 3-4; RPI: 69; SOS: 110)? There's no shame in losing at Louisville or Syracuse, or at home toUConn. That said, ND's profile is terrible right now. The Irish have an abysmal nonconference SOS and are 2-5 against the RPI Top 100. Monday night'shome date with Marquette looks crucial with a three-game trip to Pitt, feisty Cincy and UCLA up next before Louisville visits South Bend.
Providence (13-6, 5-2; RPI: 67; SOS: 73) is 5-2 in league play, with all the wins against the bottom of the conference and nothing innonleague play to fall back on. The next four (Syracuse, at UConn, Villanova, at WVU) are crucial.
Cincinnati (12-7, 3-4, RPI: 59; SOS: 29)hangs on at the periphery, having been swept by Providence. With Georgetown twice, Notre Dame and Villanova in their next four, it's make-or-break time forthe Bearcats.
[h3]Big Ten[/h3]
Locks: Michigan State
The Spartans showed their experience and poise in rallying from a double-digit deficit to win going away at Ohio State, recovering nicely fromthe shocking home loss to Northwestern. They're still the best team in this league, but may have to settle for a 2-seed.
SHOULD BE IN
Illinois (17-3, 5-2; RPI: 16; SOS: 50) now looks like the second-best team in the league after downing Ohio State and Wisconsin at home. It's awonder what maturing talent and just
average luck can do for a team compared to
a year ago (scroll all the way down).
IN THE MIX
Right on the edge of this cutline,
Minnesota (16-3, 5-3, RPI: 33; SOS: 66) held off Indiana to end its two-game skid. The Gophers hostIllinois on Thursday night in an important game ahead of a road trip to Michigan State and Ohio State. The Gophers are one of a few teams riding the "Webeat Louisville" gravy train at the moment, but they'll need to stay strong in the league.
Ohio State (13-5, 3-4; RPI: 17; SOS: 25)let Michigan State off the hook on Sunday after getting smacked at Illinois, and now they're under .500 in the league. The Buckeyes have beaten Miami,Notre Dame and Butler in nonleague play, which is a nice fallback, but they need more. Are they still ahead of
Purdue (15-4, 4-2; RPI: 39; SOS:72)? Their schedule has been much tougher both in and out of league. The Boilers grabbed a nice win at Minnesota ahead of upcoming trips to Wisconsin,Ohio State and Illinois.
That W gave the Boilermakers four straight in league play, which is the exact opposite of its next opponent,
Wisconsin (11-7, 3-4; RPI: 23;SOS: 2). The Badgers' skid extends a season-long theme where they have lost to virtually every good team they have played. Tuesday'smeeting in Madison with Purdue is very important for Wisconsin as the Boilers already beat them in West Lafayette. Would Wisconsin even be ahead of
Michigan (13-6, 4-4; RPI: 42; SOS: 20)? Likely no, given league standing. Michigan has wins over UCLA and Duke and a split with Illinois. TheWolverines also did something Michigan State couldn't do: beat Northwestern at home. They now travel to Ohio State and Purdue, with a trip to UConn loomingin early February.
Wait,
Penn State (16-5, 5-3; RPI: 75; SOS: 183) is in fourth place? Three straight wins have the Nittany Lions in the Watch, but theschedule really stiffens now, with a two-game swing through Michigan kicking off five road games in their next seven, all against NCAA-caliber foes.
Northwestern (10-7, 2-5; RPI: 41; SOS: 10) really could have used a win at Michigan to back its upset of Michigan State. That said, six of thenext seven (including a nonleague game) are at home, so the Cats could make a push.
PAC 10
Locks: Arizona State
The Sun Devils survived a trip to Tucson and continue to look well positioned, even though their overall schedule isn't great. They get theWashington schools at home and then travel to the Oregon schools, so they have a solid chance to solidify they position.
SHOULD BE IN
It's hard to separate the next three teams at this point. The nation cast a wary eye on
California (16-4, 5-2; RPI: 35; SOS: 64) after theBears lost at home to Oregon State. Cal handled Oregon, but its lack of defense in the past three league games is a concern. You can't make threes forever,even though Cal seems to try. Are the Bears ahead of surging
Washington (15-4, 6-1; RPI: 30; SOS: 26)? Maybe not, even though Cal beat theHuskies in overtime in Seattle. The Huskies, who have beaten Oklahoma State, looked good in handling
UCLA (15-4, 5-2; RPI: 40; SOS: 106). TheBruins were a missed Wazzu three away from a damaging washout of a weekend. Still, 5-2 in the league is OK and they now have four straight at home (Cal,Stanford, USC, Notre Dame) to improve their credentials.
IN THE MIX
Like Cal,
Stanford (13-4, 3-4; RPI: 64; SOS: 174) felt the SOS impact of playing the Oregon schools, and the RPI impact oflosing to Oregon State at home. Beating Cal remains their best win, so the Cardinal wasted an important chance to get above .500 in league play. They'relikely now behind teams like
USC (13-6, 4-3; RPI: 54; SOS: 62), which lost at Washington and won at Washington State. Beating Houston inovertime doesn't make up for
Arizona (12-8, 2-5; RPI: 73; SOS: 60) having wasted a chance to beat Arizona State at home. Beating Kansasand Gonzaga will only go so far.
[h3]SEC[/h3]
Locks: None
It's become harder to separate the league's top three teams, and it's a virtual certainty that the league will get at least three teams into anyNCAA tournament, so let's address them together this week.
SHOULD BE IN
A last-second vapor lock at South Carolina cost
Florida (17-3, 4-1; RPI: 32; SOS: 99) its perfect SEC mark, but the Gators rebounded well,hammering Vandy on the road on Sunday. Their profile seems similar to but
slightly better than Kentucky's at this point, mostly due to the lack ofa VMI-type loss. Florida's nonleague losses are to Syracuse and Florida State.
Memphis avenged last season's home loss to
Tennessee (12-6, 3-1; RPI: 19; SOS: 3) by winning by two in Knoxville. The Vols have lostthree of their last four at home, which usually is RPI poison, but Tennessee's schedule is so strong, it's offsetting a lot of the harm. Are the Vols,with wins over Georgetown and Marquette, still ahead of
Kentucky (16-4, 5-0; RPI: 48; SOS: 103)? That's a tough question. TheWildcats' lone nonleague helper is beating West Virginia and four of their five SEC wins are against the bottom of the league, albeit with three on theroad. That said, they're playing better basketball right now and the one "up win" in SEC play was
Jodie Meeks' destructionof the Vols in Knoxville. One game does not a profile make, but that's certainly a plus for the Cats. Speaking of one game, the truth is, if Kentuckydidn't lose at home to VMI, the Wildcats' RPI would be in the low 30s. Tennessee probably would still be seeded ahead of Kentucky at this point, butit's close.
IN THE MIX
After that, this league is a complete mess. It was worth listing all of these teams this week just to paint a proper picture.
Mississippi State (13-6, 4-1; RPI: 80; SOS: 7 is the leader in the SEC West, but the Bulldogs did virtually nothing out of conference andtheir one league loss is by 24 at
LSU (15-4, 3-1; RPI: 81; SOS: 180). How about those Tigers? They lost at home to Xavier on Saturday, failingto add anything to an empty nonconference profile that includes a 30-point loss at Utah.
South Carolina (14-4, 3-2; RPI: 62; RPI: 170) beatFlorida and lost by three at Tennessee, but didn't do anything in nonconference play besides earn a solid win at Baylor. The Gamecocks still barely missedthe bracket this week. South Carolina is the anti-
Arkansas (12-5, 0-4; RPI: 86; SOS: 109), which has wins over Oklahoma and Texas, and now is0-4 in SEC play after getting destroyed at home by Auburn.
Mississippi (10-9, 1-4; RPI: 77; SOS: 15) is done without point guard
ChrisWarren.
You'd think someone would emerge from this to at least give the league four teams into the NCAAs, but who knows.
[h3]Atlantic 10[/h3]
Locks: Xavier
The Musketeers keep rolling after winning at LSU on Saturday. The only question with them, like last year, is how high a seed can they land.
IN THE MIX
Dayton (17-2, 3-1; RPI: 45; SOS: 221) keeps winning against so-so competition and pays for it in sliding computer numbers. Theschedule improves soon, but the Flyers need to make sure they keep tailing Xavier. Routing Saint Louis and Charlotte at home did nothing for the computers, butit does keep
Temple (11-7, 3-1; RPI: 49; SOS: 45) in the mix. The Owls did beat Tennessee and Penn State but, like last year, have a series ofquestionable losses.
Saint Joseph's (11-7, 4-0; RPI: 68; SOS: 5 is perfect in the league but way too imperfect outside it.
[h3]Mountain West[/h3]
Locks: None
Crazy. This league effectively has six teams tied for first with two losses apiece. What looked a couple of weeks ago to be heading toward amulti-bid year has devolved into a parity-driven mess. Unless a couple of teams can separate, there might not be an at-large if the regular-season champ alsowins the automatic bid.
IN THE MIX
The concern after the beating at New Mexico may have been warranted for
BYU (14-4, 3-2; RPI: 36; SOS: 39), which followed thatby losing at home to UNLV. The Cougars did come back to beat San Diego State, but without any real nonconference heft, they need to do better.
UNLV(16-4, 4-2; RPI: 46; SOS: 100) is next in the pecking order. The Rebels' win at Louisville keeps looking better and they look like they havebounced back from early league losses at TCU and Colorado State.
Utah (12-5, 3-2; RPI: 25; SOS: 14) lost its only game of the week, but itsTeflon computer profile stayed mostly intact due to its nonconference schedule which included wins over Gonzaga and LSU (along with a couple of terriblelosses).
San Diego State (11-5, 3-2; RPI: 58; SOS: 61) almost certainly needs to win the league to have an at-large chance.
[h3]Others[/h3]
Locks: Memphis, Butler
Memphis (by outlasting Tennessee) and Butler (by waxing its two closest Horizon challengers) consolidated their positions. Beyond that, there arethree teams that are solidly positioned and a whole mess behind them. Forced to choose at this point, the odds are that no other league besides Conference USA,the Horizon, WCC and the SoCon have a chance for multiple bids -- and three of those four are contingent upon the heavy favorite losing in the conferencetourney.
SHOULD BE IN
Gonzaga (13-4, 5-0; RPI: 51; SOS: 129) rolled past terrible Pepperdine and Loyola Marymount teams and saw their RPI drop 14 spots. Gonzaga has solidnonconference wins, including Oklahoma State, Tennessee and Washington State. A home loss to Portland State hurts.
Davidson (15-3, 9-0; RPI: 37; SOS:121) also won twice last week and saw their profile weaken. That's what happens when you play in the SoCon, where nine of the 12 teams haveoverall records of .500 or worse. The automatic bid is still the safest route for the Wildcats, who have beaten West Virginia. Looking for something to doThursday night? Settle in for the first of two meetings between Gonzaga and WCC co-leader
Saint Mary's (16-1, 5-0; RPI: 52; SOS: 286). TheGaels probably need the regular-season crown more, since their OK-at-first-glance schedule gets battered by the computers.
IN THE MIX
Two things are working for
Siena (15-5, 9-0; RPI: 20; SOS: 23) at the moment. The Saints are sweeping through a decent MAAC and theirnonconference opponents (Tennessee, Pitt, Oklahoma State, Kansas ... even Boise State and Cornell) are also doing quite well. Remember, though, Missouri Statewas left out of the NCAAs with an RPI of 21 in 2006, and deservedly so, since their profile was empty, much like Siena's. On the contrary,
UtahState (18-1, 7-0; RPI: 44; SOS: 231) is being held back by its schedule. The Aggies should continue rolling in the WAC, but similar to Kent State lastseason, they really need a desirable matchup in BracketBusters to give themselves a shot at a late-season win that resonates. (More on this later thisweek.)
ON THE PERIPHERY
Losing
John Vaughan to a concussion late in a one-point loss at Northeastern clearly didn't help
George Mason (14-5, 7-2; RPI: 53;SOS: 122) against
VCU (15-5, 8-1, RPI: 57; SOS: 137), either. The Rams are now the conference co- leader along with
Northeastern (13-6, 8-1; RPI: 60; SOS: 111), but none of the three looks to be in great shape for an at-large. Neither does
IllinoisState (17-3 (6-3), RPI: 55; SOS: 247), which had a very weak nonconference schedule and continues to drop games in the balanced Missouri Valley.
UAB (13-7, 3-2; RPI: 47; SOS: 3 won three times last week, but the Blazers' at-large hopes probably went up in smoke in four days afterChristmas when they lost to Louisville and Butler. They also have already lost at Memphis, so the return game is the only regular-season game of value left.
Miami, Ohio (10-7, 3-2; RPI: 41; SOS: 19) has a solid list of opponents and not much else.
