- Mar 27, 2005
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I'm watching F closely. Almost near my bid.
OFFICIAL STOCK MARKET & ECONOMY THREAD VOL. SCHOOL'S OUT
- Thread in 'General' Thread starter Started by dey know yayo,
- Start date
- Apr 27, 2005
- 341
- 10
excerpt from an article
Housing is falling. . . Interest rates have nowhere to go but up. . . Higher taxes are a given. . . and there is no brewing innovation with the same power that tech had to lift us out of our doldrums.
What's worse, Americans have more than triple the debt they had in 1982 and less than half the savings. On top of that, a bigger share of them has no home equity, leaving them one pink slip away from financial ruin.
These are tough balls to juggle in an economy that relies on consumers for 70% of the total spend. These are the cold, hard realties that the government just can't fix.
i'd agree in that feds won't raise rates until later this year, which would probably raise the value of a dollar (as more countries invest in USD)...but for now, i can't imagine this dollar rally last much longer?
would anyone agree? which would drive commodity prices back up?
also, i don't see much movement in oil for the next few months, i might sell out of it ...even the growth in GDP news couldn't stop oil from falling...
Housing is falling. . . Interest rates have nowhere to go but up. . . Higher taxes are a given. . . and there is no brewing innovation with the same power that tech had to lift us out of our doldrums.
What's worse, Americans have more than triple the debt they had in 1982 and less than half the savings. On top of that, a bigger share of them has no home equity, leaving them one pink slip away from financial ruin.
These are tough balls to juggle in an economy that relies on consumers for 70% of the total spend. These are the cold, hard realties that the government just can't fix.
i'd agree in that feds won't raise rates until later this year, which would probably raise the value of a dollar (as more countries invest in USD)...but for now, i can't imagine this dollar rally last much longer?
would anyone agree? which would drive commodity prices back up?
also, i don't see much movement in oil for the next few months, i might sell out of it ...even the growth in GDP news couldn't stop oil from falling...
- Apr 27, 2005
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Originally Posted by RunningFishy
Originally Posted by kicksfiend
Currency carry trades are when you borrow money in one currency and invests it into another. With a low interest rate in the United States, it's virtually free to borrow USD. You can borrow USD and invest it into another security (usually stocks/commodities). With the current situation in the market, people have shorted dollars/longed stocks. Today, /DX rose forcing people to cover their shorts. It's not surprising money flowed out of the stock market as this occured.
IMO, the correlation at this point is going to be imperfect to say the least. I feel like the correlation is going to break down if the market experiences further downside. For the past few weeks, /DX and /ES have been moving seperately and not in lock step like it did in the past. When RunningFishy said "we're in another correlation of the dollar carry trade", I guess he means the correlation is back on for now, which today seems true.
/DX is the dollar index futures. /ES is the S&P 500 futures.
^^ You my friend are too smart !
TEDDY
Remember when dollar tanked and it jacked OIL up to $100+ with it? It was because the DOLLAR was so heavily correlated.
Now look and see the 'swings' of the dollar. If it continues to swing, do you really think OIL will correlate back into the sub $60, $50 barrell? I don't think so. This is what the market is trying to do now. It is seeking to find correlation between the dollar carry trade. That is, the ratio between USD, COMMODITIES and etc., will find that inverse relationship again.
--
Shorted:
AMD
INTC
I will keep it light until I find strength, but I am going to go into gambling mode and roll a bit into overnight weekend plays.
i get what your saying...the markets are trying to determine the correlation between the US dollar and commodity prices. I'm prediciting that the relationship won't be as "correlated" as it once was, as you're right, oil wouldn't go down to 50/b if the dollar was to go up to 1.15.
thanks
- Apr 27, 2005
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i hear BRK-B will go on S&P 500 soon..and that buffet wouldn't issue additional shares
this would be crazy for existing holders!
this would be crazy for existing holders!
- Feb 24, 2005
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Wedge forming, possible downside break out. Won't tell you what to do but there are some more promising charts out there. IMO, I'd wait for more information to make a move on it.
Source?
- Mar 27, 2005
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Exactly my thoughts. Inverted cup and handle formation (bearish) with 10.40 being neckline.
- Mar 27, 2005
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That would be nice, but what drove most investors away is that there is no dividend. Well not that there was any to being with.
- Apr 27, 2005
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also, thinking about it..how valid is the whole dollar trade? where else would investors be putting their money in...the classic USD/JPY example is no longer really the case
runningfishy
Banned
- Sep 25, 2005
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I don't really like F and the whole automobile stocks right now. You can make a case for anything though.
I am hedged both ways going into next week, but I want to really see the financial sector and indices bounce back on Monday.
I am hedged both ways going into next week, but I want to really see the financial sector and indices bounce back on Monday.
runningfishy
Banned
- Sep 25, 2005
- 2,874
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What are you talking about ?!
You do realize that the USD is the 'world reserve' currency right?
- Apr 27, 2005
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i'm talking about the premise of carry trading (borrowing money of a currency with low rates and investing it in another currency) ..int rates are low not just in the US, but in Europe, etc
runningfishy
Banned
- Sep 25, 2005
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I still don't understand what your trying to say. I D K what you mean by valid. For me to repeat the 'USD' trade is just a broken record to traders that understand. But I am not trying to condescend you. However, if fundamentals and typical ideas are not understood, it makes trading difficult !
You would call that 'arbitrage'. Business has no 'dumb' money. Of course the interest rates globally are supressed. If not, you would have already seen a big reaction of this. Forex is another thing of its own. I too am learning and trying to formulate my views. Don't be afraid of learning, it's a lifelong process. What you should be afraid of is gambling in hopes you can strike it big over 1 night.
This is now a very complex economic system. There is no real answer, not even the best professors, scholars can figure everything out.
- Feb 24, 2005
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Carry trades, minus any black swan occurrences, are easy profit. Think about what you're doing: borrowing money of a currency with low rate and investing in another with higher rate. It's like borrowing money with an interest rate of 5% and making 10% return on that money. It's low risk and profitable. The USD carry trade while still a valid carry trade is somewhat different than most, investors shorted USD and longed US equities and commodities. When the USD fell and stocks/commodities witnessed the greatest bear market rally in history, those investors caked off (think of it in bond terms with the spread between stocks and USD being the profit, the spread widened considerably. The dollar strength we see, in my opinion, is the unwinding of these trades. As people cover shorts, they must close out positions in equities, which causes the reverse, stocks fall and dollar rises. However, when the USD was falling and stocks were rising, it was easy for the correlation to stand because everyone was basically on the same page. Now that the market is turning around (IMO), the correlation isn't as strong simply because there are many different dollar bears and bulls. No one group controls the market.
That's about the simplest I can explain it.
runningfishy
Banned
- Sep 25, 2005
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Quoted for simplicity.
You should charge people w/ that kind of analysis.
- Feb 24, 2005
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I should charge for that analysis. I actually plan to. NT gets it for free though...
for now.
for now.
runningfishy
Banned
- Sep 25, 2005
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LOL..
I mean, corrupted capitalism is one thing. We can't beat um like that. So help fellow people, but then again, if there weren't suckers, there won't be winners. Just saying..
Alan fisherman's 1 month robbery, Lloyd's gang bang is just too painful to take it out on fellow NTers. LOL
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=) Have a good one.
- Apr 27, 2005
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i'd like to think that i'm not a "sucker" , just learning something new everyday
- Feb 24, 2005
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RunningFish didn't mean you were a sucker. He meant it's wise to educate other as to what's going on but there's a point at which it wouldn't make sense. Whenever you buy hoping a security goes up, someone sells to you (hoping it doesn't go up and invalidate their reason for selling). Without sellers, there'd be no buying and vice versa. The financial markets need suckers so others can profit. Someones loss is anothers gain.
At the end of the day, everyones in the same boat. Being a trader means your education will never end. As long as the financial markets are changing, there's new things to learn and old things that don't no longer matter. I like it though. I never want to feel secure and confident that I know exactly where the markets gonna close the next day. I want it to be a challenge and I want the feeling of accomplishment that comes with owning something at a price everyone else regrets not getting in at.
At the end of the day, everyones in the same boat. Being a trader means your education will never end. As long as the financial markets are changing, there's new things to learn and old things that don't no longer matter. I like it though. I never want to feel secure and confident that I know exactly where the markets gonna close the next day. I want it to be a challenge and I want the feeling of accomplishment that comes with owning something at a price everyone else regrets not getting in at.
Majorbread
formerly 40inchboost
- Jul 16, 2009
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What is the best site for screeners/charts and level II's?
- Apr 27, 2005
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lets keep the greenback falling
big day for gold/oil
big day for gold/oil
- Jun 24, 2007
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prophetcharts by thinkorswim are pretty good as far as charts go
- May 19, 2005
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averaging down worked! lol
- Feb 24, 2005
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Anyone watching the dollar for it's commodity/equities correlation needs to pay attention to Greece. Sovereign credit spreads on Greece tightened today but going forward, any weakness in Greece will cause the Euro to fall and money to be pushed into the USD (as a flight to security).
Just something to note.
Just something to note.
- Apr 27, 2005
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^yea that is true... need to balance the dollar/speculation when comparing it to commodity prices
runningfishy
Banned
- Sep 25, 2005
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You are the man. That correlation is what most are watching. There is no way "anticipated" sell off of the dollar will bring oil below $70. If that were the case, it would be 2008 all over again. I myself see the trend reversal in the USD.
REASONS:
Breakout
FOMC can't keep rates low forever ! Smart money moved in preparation already for increased rates and a shakeup of the market equilibrium.
Tuesday: Going 75% Short. (w/ tight stop loss)
Greece won't default IMHO.
