OFFICIAL STOCK MARKET & ECONOMY THREAD VOL. SCHOOL'S OUT

[nicefro]

upup

 

[scarface2k1]

so as we all know, rates in Us will not stay low forever.

so if you are trading the USD against any other major currency, would it be a smart play to long USD, or not?
would you be locked into the rate the USD is paying when you buy it, kind of like when a bond is issued, and rates go up/down, you then have reinvestment risk.
just wondering, haven't studied FX as much as equities/fixed income/options.

cause if that is the case, you would assume alot of money would flow to the safe investment in USD even though investors risk appetite is growing, you would think it would be a solid easy trade to profit when USD does rate rates.

please elaborate, not a student of FX but very interested.

 

[kicksfiend]

Originally Posted by Scarface2k1

so as we all know, rates in Us will not stay low forever.

so if you are trading the USD against any other major currency, would it be a smart play to long USD, or not?
would you be locked into the rate the USD is paying when you buy it, kind of like when a bond is issued, and rates go up/down, you then have reinvestment risk.
just wondering, haven't studied FX as much as equities/fixed income/options.

cause if that is the case, you would assume alot of money would flow to the safe investment in USD even though investors risk appetite is growing, you would think it would be a solid easy trade to profit when USD does rate rates.

please elaborate, not a student of FX but very interested.

Unless the US never raises rates, similar to what Japan did with their lost decade. They kept hinting at the rates going higher but refused to raise them. Also, you're confusing investing based on fundamentals for trading, two very different things. Fundamentals take time to affect the price. BTW, it you're doing anything involved in the financial industry, IMO, you need to know about ALL parts. Meaning step your FX game up.

Anyone take my advice to watch the Euro? EUR/USD down , USD up, Equities down today.

 

[cruthik3]

SDS Sept 36 call holding that one

Spy March 110 Call

looking to get into TBT and DRV

Made 110% on my faz april 18 call too bad i sold already.  Profits are profits.

 

[kicksfiend]

Originally Posted by CruThik3

SDS Sept 36 call holding that one

Spy March 110 Call

looking to get into TBT and DRV

Made 110% on my faz april 18 call too bad i sold already.  Profits are profits.

You still holding onto the SPY 110 Calls? SDS is a good look. I don't see SPY up above 1116 or so it needs to be above by March for you to profit. IMO, SPY is headed down, there's too much supply above. I'm looking into TBT as well. I'll either post later tonight or tomorrow the reasoning behind it.

 

[nicefro]

a bit unrelated but wth.
anyone know where i can find good sources relating to how the wall street crash of 1929 led to the rise of hitler?
thanks

 

[kicksfiend]

Originally Posted by nicefro

a bit unrelated but wth.
anyone know where i can find good sources relating to how the wall street crash of 1929 led to the rise of hitler?
thanks

I don't know of anything relating the two directly. However, I've read a lot about Hjalmar Schacht who was probably the greatest Central Banker to live IMO. He helped stabilize the German mark during a period of hyperinflation by tying the value of the mark to the value of the mortgage of all properties in Germany. He brought Germany from hyperinflation to the powerhouse that enabled Hitler to do the things that he did. Nobody gives him credit because he was a "Nazi" but he was against nationalism as well as persecution of the Jews. He was even accused of being involved in a plot to kill Hitler.

Check out Lords of Finance if you're interested. It's a book about Benjamin Strong of the Federal Reserve, Montagu Norman of the Bank of England, Hjalmar Schacht of the Reichsbank and John Maynard Keynes.

 

[nicefro]

mainly that american loans put in place by the dawes plan of 1924 were recalled and the fact that the negative situation in the united states just made things worse for germany
man $%@@ this @#$+

 

[lilchico4life]

JOEZ doing really well.

 

[nicefro]

bet we see <10k before EOD tmrw

 

[lilchico4life]

We're going much lower if we break 1065 on S&P.

 

[lilchico4life]

Originally Posted by nicefro

bet we see <10k before EOD tmrw

We could see that today into the close.

 

[nicefro]

1064.80
<10k is def. looking possible
FAZ on firee, still holding from $228.00 though

 

[lilchico4life]

Originally Posted by nicefro

1064.80
<10k is def. looking possible
FAZ on firee, still holding from $228.00 though

Please don't hold 3x leveraged etfs. They're not meant to be held overnight. I cannot stress this enough.

 

[lilchico4life]

Unbelievable.

 

[nicefro]

since march 30. waiting for $22.80.

9999 10,002 huh
guess the party's over

chico, think we'll bounce a bit early tmrw??

 

[cruthik3]

January payrolls mixed with confusion everywhere will be interesting.

 

[lilchico4life]

60 minute is oversold. Daily still has some room left to go further south. It all depends how employment numbers are tomorrow morning.

 

[cruthik3]

 GS says -25,000 in non farm payrolls increase to 10.1%% form 10% God talks to GS so I assume it will be close.

 

[runningfishy]

Originally Posted by kicksfiend

Originally Posted by Scarface2k1

so as we all know, rates in Us will not stay low forever.

so if you are trading the USD against any other major currency, would it be a smart play to long USD, or not?
would you be locked into the rate the USD is paying when you buy it, kind of like when a bond is issued, and rates go up/down, you then have reinvestment risk.
just wondering, haven't studied FX as much as equities/fixed income/options.

cause if that is the case, you would assume alot of money would flow to the safe investment in USD even though investors risk appetite is growing, you would think it would be a solid easy trade to profit when USD does rate rates.

please elaborate, not a student of FX but very interested.

Unless the US never raises rates, similar to what Japan did with their lost decade. They kept hinting at the rates going higher but refused to raise them. Also, you're confusing investing based on fundamentals for trading, two very different things. Fundamentals take time to affect the price. BTW, it you're doing anything involved in the financial industry, IMO, you need to know about ALL parts. Meaning step your FX game up.

Anyone take my advice to watch the Euro? EUR/USD down , USD up, Equities down today.

LOL Your too smart.  You dont' need credit !!  hahaha

In my previous posts, I had said that BIG BOYS swung into the USD already.  The impediing movement has shown the breakout on your charts, too late though.  Those breakouts were retailers.

I have not capitalized on this as much as I would have liked to, simply because I could not watch and my stops got ran.  I am net short though and on margin, carrying into tomorrow.  Regardless, I have my stops.

Billy bob thorton, the unemployed guy, and even ben bernarke see that support.  But that's suspensed in the air, because I believe we will bleed tomorrow.

lines aren't as easy as you think.. heheh.

 

[finnns2003]

Yikes, DOLE is killing me.

 

[runningfishy]

Originally Posted by nicefro

since march 30. waiting for $22.80.

9999 10,002 huh
guess the party's over

chico, think we'll bounce a bit early tmrw??

Any bounce will be short lived IMHO.  We will slide further at least 1-2 more days.  This has nothing to do w/ the dollar though, although you can go back a few and see what I mean.

 

[andycrazn]

longing faz

 

[jackiechizzan]

somebody wanna school me on emerging markets funds? currently got all my retirement money (which isnt very much at all) in DFEMX:

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=DFEMX

it's been tanking as of late, but i guess everything else is as well.

 

[andycrazn]

well i finally got margin....... it sucks cause my prediction for aig was dead on and i couldnt even short it!