- May 19, 2005
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can someone look at the 1 year chart for ba? is that the elliot wave?
OFFICIAL STOCK MARKET & ECONOMY THREAD VOL. SCHOOL'S OUT
- Thread in 'General' Thread starter Started by dey know yayo,
- Start date
- Apr 27, 2005
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r u saying gold is forming some sort of triangle and it will break out for the worse? u r worrying me lol
runningfishy
Banned
- Sep 25, 2005
- 2,874
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gold is in support for obvious reasons.. because there are going to be a lot of shet w/ the dollar carry trade.
as equities sell off harder than u rub ur wang, gold is another area of investment.
anyhow SOMEONE ANSWER ME on the AH/PRE MARKET trades, which broker fosters 24/7 !
as equities sell off harder than u rub ur wang, gold is another area of investment.
anyhow SOMEONE ANSWER ME on the AH/PRE MARKET trades, which broker fosters 24/7 !
- Apr 27, 2005
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^i'm sorry, i don't comprehend. i'm assuming you are saying the price of the US dollar will be going up which is causing commodity prices to decline
but with your 2nd comment about equity sell off, ppl would go to safe-havens (gold) ..would that not increase gold prices?
but with your 2nd comment about equity sell off, ppl would go to safe-havens (gold) ..would that not increase gold prices?
runningfishy
Banned
- Sep 25, 2005
- 2,874
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This has always been a US dollar carry trade. The relationships are there.
However, as you can tell, the USD is getting stronger, but it has not destroyed GOLD. This is a divergence and it is a tell-truth (not tale) sign of what's really out there. Here you have NT cats posting how they have masters, PHDs and even degrees in Engineering and Accounting; but they have no jobs.
The recent strengthening of the dollar has indeed affected commodity prices.
Investors that seek safety will flock to the dollar and GOLD. This is where the 'market' will tell the truth. If indeed you see parallel strength in GOLD and USD, then this is what will happen. I don't call stuff, like 99.9% do because 99.9% people lose money trading like that. This isn't poker where you bluff the market. This is a game of probabilities and analysis. DONT EVER LISTEN to what SOMEONE SAYS.
Pull up a chart in GOLD, you'll realize that it has gone no where but up. GOLD will retrace only when the CURRENCY TRADE/EQUITY/ECONOMY strengthens. More so, when was the last time SPOT GOLD was under 4 digits. LOL
- Feb 24, 2005
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This has always been a US dollar carry trade. The relationships are there.
However, as you can tell, the USD isgettingstronger, but it has not destroyed GOLD. This is a divergence and it is a tell-truth (not tale) sign of what's really out there. Here you have NTcats posting how they have masters, PHDs and even degrees in Engineering and Accounting; but they have no jobs.
The recent strengthening of the dollar has indeed affected commodity prices.
Investors that seek safety will flock to the dollar and GOLD. This is where the 'market' will tell the truth. If indeed you see parallel strength in GOLD and USD, then this is what will happen. I don't call stuff, like 99.9% do because 99.9% people lose money trading like that. This isn't poker where you bluff the market. This is a game of probabilities and analysis. DONT EVER LISTEN to what SOMEONE SAYS.
Pull up a chart in GOLD, you'll realize that it has gone no where but up. GOLD will retrace only when the CURRENCY TRADE/EQUITY/ECONOMY strengthens. More so, when was the last time SPOT GOLD was under 4 digits. LOL
Here are some videos I came across:
- Mar 27, 2005
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Thanks for the videos, kicksfiend. Will definitely check them out later today.
- Mar 27, 2005
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Couple financials I'm playing on earnings are ETFC and SNV. ETFC reports today after markets close and SNV tomorrow. Have tight stops set in case things don't go as planned.
- Apr 27, 2005
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any commodity players in here? oil/gold? and more specifically your outlook on the US dollar?
Feds kept the rates same today, so the dollar rally might stop and go back down. US economy is weak and they are printing endless amounts of monies at a basically 0 rate.
the dollar isn't gonna go to high up imho, so i'd imagine the gold should go up as it's near it's BB low
if there is a big 'correction', then everyone would rush to gold anyway, which would drive prices high
am i wrong for assuming gold is gold? no pun intended
i'm losing out on oil right now @ 73/ barrel...damn dollar!
Feds kept the rates same today, so the dollar rally might stop and go back down. US economy is weak and they are printing endless amounts of monies at a basically 0 rate.
the dollar isn't gonna go to high up imho, so i'd imagine the gold should go up as it's near it's BB low
if there is a big 'correction', then everyone would rush to gold anyway, which would drive prices high
am i wrong for assuming gold is gold? no pun intended
i'm losing out on oil right now @ 73/ barrel...damn dollar!
runningfishy
Banned
- Sep 25, 2005
- 2,874
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You trade futures? WOW ?!
I have no balls nor the brains for that. I simply don't have the flash trading speed to trade w/ the big boys. Nor do I have the moolah. But my guess is you have exposure to oil.
Let me know though..
I am with you regarding the dollar, for I see no other genuine reason other than to say that the market has been manipulated the past few months, ever since this crisis started. However, I am still a bit uncertain w/ the equities and dollar movement correlation. BIG BOYS swung into currency 'ahead' of FOMC today - NO THEY DIDNT SWING TODAY, they swung a while back. THAT IS SMART MONEY MOVING, IMHO. THATS PRICING IN. Simply saying a stock priced earnings a day before earnings is not PRICING it in. They were hoping to see rates get back up, but they didn't. NOW WATCH and see if smart money moves out of currencies and into equities again to engorge another bull run.
FYI: I am BULL OIL (today), but with a very tight stops.
I don't think everyone will flock to GOLD. You see, GOLD is traded in the USD, heck this is the DOLLAR CARRY TRADE. Therefore, if GOLD does explode higher, it will mean a few things:
A) Currencies are devalued in relation to the USD
B) The USD itself is devalued further
C) Asset class destruction has lead to physical money regression. MEANING, equities are trash, so are bonds, and everything else. Don't forget real estate hahahhaa...
People have to remember fundamentals and common sense, but not CNBC, CRAMER or BULLSHET TV. I use to watch fast money cuz that girl was 'semi' cute, but her teeth reminds me of the horrendous gap ups and downs and I no longer watch it. Plus they have this hajyy look a like guy w/ moouse hair talking about all this sector rotation crap which is obviously a report, not even an analysis.
CRAMER is great, but he's manipulated as well. He basically talks about stocks w/ world events. BUY air line security stocks, etc. Although he's far fetched, his fundamentals are proper in a way, but none the less, it's late to the party material.
Position: Watching for SM to move things into equities again.
lol at this foolio
- Apr 27, 2005
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^ no i don't trade futures, with respect to oil, i trade a 2x leveraged ETF which mimics the future spot price of oil
can u explain a bit more on 'big boys moving into currency before feds decision' today? bit unclear
can u explain a bit more on 'big boys moving into currency before feds decision' today? bit unclear
runningfishy
Banned
- Sep 25, 2005
- 2,874
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If I knew the precise movements, I wouldn't be here talking. The truth is, no one really knows ! The people that know are the 'insiders'.
My point is, smart money move into things way before it really happens. Therefore, the move into the USD took place on the break out and what not. As dumb money like you and I, and smaller money sees this, it continuously drives the price up. Therefore, I seemingly laugh at the caveat when people think that AAPL share price were priced in. In essence they were, but the kicker is that they 'didn't know' when to capitalize on it, and they used their 'excuse' of a longer duration to absorb market risk. Money is made on the swings, and these swings are 'created' amongst the big boys. Fools buy into the news that it was some bullshet tablet, but in reality it wasn't.
Think about it.
Now, like said, go and watch the USD. GS/BIGBOYS/OBARRICKOSAMA and manipulators can no longer allow fiat to collapse. REGARDLESS of what I think, I am going to see what I see and play that way.
ALWAYS use a STOP LOSS.
SCENARIO:
My gut feeling tells me, oil will continue to dip lower a bit and my stops will get run into. Possibly into $70-$71 range. The equilibrium of dollar/oil is finding itself. That is, oil will hover as USD finds strength. But as of now, OIL Is in free fall ! Yeah, how contradicting of me.
- Apr 27, 2005
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ng keeps tanking..
- Mar 27, 2005
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^ Its making its way down to $5.
You should have stops set if you have a position, like 5%-15% below your buy in price. Or you can just average down.
You should have stops set if you have a position, like 5%-15% below your buy in price. Or you can just average down.
- Mar 27, 2005
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SLV is looking good right now. Sitting right at support. I'll probably start a position with a stop.
runningfishy
Banned
- Sep 25, 2005
- 2,874
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i set an alert for silver way way way way back and it finally alerted me of the price. i will consider..
war is in the books
- Sep 27, 2003
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Nice post NT'ers. I am a beginner and the whole market really interests me but I want to get caught up and gain a little more knowledge before going into any investments. Say I have about 3k-10k in cash as of right now, What are some good books/websites to read to gain a bit more knowledge on the market and what to do with that sum?
Thanks
Thanks
runningfishy
Banned
- Sep 25, 2005
- 2,874
- 19
YESTERDAY:
LONG - OIL
I was incorrect in that OIL didn't find it's strength and the whole asset class and group just sold off again. I got stopped out of my oil position.
My bank stock has been good. It didn't get stopped out and I've been adjusting the stops all day.
FRIDAY OUTLOOK:
I am net long and I'm expecting a nice bounce back up into the green. In fact, I am not shorting anything. But again, I have very tight stops. Often times, the gaps/volatility have destroyed me in and out, but I cannot stress this enough, stop losses are mandatory.
Judging from today's activity, I am liking that. Those that have the balls to go long, will find it rewarding, but then again, we can continue the down fall. * I will update tonight if people have some discussion. Regardless, it is time for financials to bounce back up, when they do, I hope to see the rally.
LONG - OIL
I was incorrect in that OIL didn't find it's strength and the whole asset class and group just sold off again. I got stopped out of my oil position.
My bank stock has been good. It didn't get stopped out and I've been adjusting the stops all day.
FRIDAY OUTLOOK:
I am net long and I'm expecting a nice bounce back up into the green. In fact, I am not shorting anything. But again, I have very tight stops. Often times, the gaps/volatility have destroyed me in and out, but I cannot stress this enough, stop losses are mandatory.
Judging from today's activity, I am liking that. Those that have the balls to go long, will find it rewarding, but then again, we can continue the down fall. * I will update tonight if people have some discussion. Regardless, it is time for financials to bounce back up, when they do, I hope to see the rally.
runningfishy
Banned
- Sep 25, 2005
- 2,874
- 19
LOL.
No one here?
The bounce off GDP was short lived. My stops were in play. Netted me a profit, and watched the indices dip back down. As of now as I type this we are in another correlation of dollar carry trade. I am not sure what to play, and might not do anything this weekend.
Days before I suggested people look at the dollar as the cue, sure enough.. Like said, 'big boys' swung into the USD way before FOMC.
- Apr 27, 2005
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what do u mean when u say 'we are in another correlation of dollar carry trade'
- Feb 24, 2005
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Currency carry trades are when you borrow money in one currency and invests it into another. With a low interest rate in the United States, it's virtually free to borrow USD. You can borrow USD and invest it into another security (usually stocks/commodities). With the current situation in the market, people have shorted dollars/longed stocks. Today, /DX rose forcing people to cover their shorts. It's not surprising money flowed out of the stock market as this occured.
IMO, the correlation at this point is going to be imperfect to say the least. I feel like the correlation is going to break down if the market experiences further downside. For the past few weeks, /DX and /ES have been moving seperately and not in lock step like it did in the past. When RunningFishy said "we're in another correlation of the dollar carry trade", I guess he means the correlation is back on for now, which today seems true.
/DX is the dollar index futures. /ES is the S&P 500 futures.
- Mar 27, 2005
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Everything looks prime for a short term trade. Break of 1072 and down we go to 1020-1030 on the S&P.
I think I'll wait though. We can see 9,000-9,500 on the DOW soon enough.
I think I'll wait though. We can see 9,000-9,500 on the DOW soon enough.
runningfishy
Banned
- Sep 25, 2005
- 2,874
- 19
Originally Posted by kicksfiend
Currency carry trades are when you borrow money in one currency and invests it into another. With a low interest rate in the United States, it's virtually free to borrow USD. You can borrow USD and invest it into another security (usually stocks/commodities). With the current situation in the market, people have shorted dollars/longed stocks. Today, /DX rose forcing people to cover their shorts. It's not surprising money flowed out of the stock market as this occured.
IMO, the correlation at this point is going to be imperfect to say the least. I feel like the correlation is going to break down if the market experiences further downside. For the past few weeks, /DX and /ES have been moving seperately and not in lock step like it did in the past. When RunningFishy said "we're in another correlation of the dollar carry trade", I guess he means the correlation is back on for now, which today seems true.
/DX is the dollar index futures. /ES is the S&P 500 futures.
^^ You my friend are too smart !
TEDDY
Remember when dollar tanked and it jacked OIL up to $100+ with it? It was because the DOLLAR was so heavily correlated.
Now look and see the 'swings' of the dollar. If it continues to swing, do you really think OIL will correlate back into the sub $60, $50 barrell? I don't think so. This is what the market is trying to do now. It is seeking to find correlation between the dollar carry trade. That is, the ratio between USD, COMMODITIES and etc., will find that inverse relationship again.
--
Shorted:
AMD
INTC
I will keep it light until I find strength, but I am going to go into gambling mode and roll a bit into overnight weekend plays.
- Dec 29, 2004
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Anyone still have Ford (F) in their sights??
I just started an etrade acct?
Anyone familiar with ING Direct Sharebuilder? $50 back w/ atleast a $50 deposit right now..
I just started an etrade acct?
Anyone familiar with ING Direct Sharebuilder? $50 back w/ atleast a $50 deposit right now..
- Sep 17, 2004
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BRK-B...crazzzzzzy!
everything else is dumpin.
everything else is dumpin.
