***Official Political Discussion Thread***

[trappedintime]

The broken leg problem

Our model is pessimistic for Biden. But the reality is probably worse.

www.natesilver.net

28% chance of winning (and probably worse than that according to Silver), but it’s the media and his stutter? Democrats just love making excuses for failed candidacies.

“Joe Biden is the equivalent of OG Anunoby in Game 7 — except, obviously, it’s a much higher-stakes problem for the country. Even though Biden’s chances have fallen considerably in our forecast — to 28 percent now from 35 percent before the debate — it’s still probably too optimistic. He likely isn’t capable of providing the sort of performance he needs to fully realize his chances of a comeback.”

 

[rexanglorum]

she's high on the list of "people you shouldn't listen to"

She's dumb. Not dumb in the sense of "I disagree with here ideologically so she must be dumb," but more of the genuinely dull, intellectually uncurious, and lacking in any imagination. Her entire political project is that New York City Commercial Real estate must never take a loss and congested streets in Manhattan are great (especially if they are filled with residents from New Jersey).

In much of the US, mass transit is nowhere near developed enough to justify congestion taxes and very expensive public parking. It would be, in practice, a massive regressive tax on the lowest paid workers who increasingly commute from far away.

But if you think that Manhattan isn't one of the few places for financial incentives designed to entice suburbanites to use transit, then no where is. And that means that Gov. Hochul is deeply car brained and therefore has a room temp IQ.

NYTimes is in bed with Wall Street (Private Equity/Hedge Funds Etc.)...simple as that.
Trump is good for Wall Street.

It's always so funny how ordinary people in red States act like ending the EC and the Senate would mean that city folk would run rough shot over them. The reality is that rich people in tech and financial, who live in big coastal cities, love the fact that red State Senators can be bought off so cheaply.

Let's talk about denial:

An empty White House is better than this, but the White House can't stay empty, and third party candidates don't have a mathematical chance to occupy it.

I hate ever saying anything nice or exculpatory for "moderate" conservatives, but I'm going to right now.

This is not the agenda of a reasonable center right party. This is just a slew of grievance and nihilism. The popular support for it comes from boomers who want to relieve their youth/an imagined past and young men who think all of this will increase their chances of getting a girlfriend (and helping them force them into to being their wife, servant, and broodmare for their 20 Chad sons). Cruel, mad, and unserious all at once.

 

[aepps20]

I remember how my satire really impacted Ninja in a negative way. Once his “da” moniker became mine he would post da Sean Michaels gif and Meth would warn him. I knew you had to fight fire with a flamethrower. I had beef with him for years and Trump gave me the avenue to attack.

 

[aepps20]

The broken leg problem

Our model is pessimistic for Biden. But the reality is probably worse.

www.natesilver.net

28% chance of winning (and probably worse than that according to Silver), but it’s the media and his stutter? Democrats just love making excuses for failed candidacies.

“Joe Biden is the equivalent of OG Anunoby in Game 7 — except, obviously, it’s a much higher-stakes problem for the country. Even though Biden’s chances have fallen considerably in our forecast — to 28 percent now from 35 percent before the debate — it’s still probably too optimistic. He likely isn’t capable of providing the sort of performance he needs to fully realize his chances of a comeback.”

I will say that as helpful as these models are they are very dynamic. If the election were today we probably lose but July isn’t November and whether it’s Joe or anyone else I think when people truly lock in around September the race will tighten significantly. Joe and Hillary had pretty substantial leads over Trump but the closer we got to the election the polarization like rexanglorum mentioned took hold and the election came down to GOTV efforts. I will also mention that Nate’s model predicted the bad guys would pick up the senate and have a +23 seat minimum advantage in the house during the midterms only for us to keep the senate and only lose the house by 4 seats. His model also indicated that we wouldn’t win the Wisconsin Supreme Court race but that happened. Trends in politics are super important and being willing to adjust is extremely helpful and our side’s ability to adjust to Joe whether he stays or leaves will be important but I think Nate Silver and others have turned politics into a sporting event where you have innings, quarters, periods, sets and halves which isn’t true. Polls and models are useful but not as predictive as some might think especially this far out.

 

[IATT]

I will say that as helpful as these models are they are very dynamic. If the election were today we probably lose but July isn’t November and whether it’s Joe or anyone else I think when people truly lock in around September the race will tighten significantly. Joe and Hillary had pretty substantial leads over Trump but the closer we got to the election the polarization like rexanglorum mentioned took hold and the election came down to GOTV efforts. I will also mention that Nate’s model predicted the bad guys would pick up the senate and have a +23 seat minimum advantage in the house during the midterms only for us to keep the senate and only lose the house by 4 seats. His model also indicated that we wouldn’t win the Wisconsin Supreme Court race but that happened. Trends in politics are super important and being willing to adjust is extremely helpful and our side’s ability to adjust to Joe whether he stays or leaves will be important but I think Nate Silver and others have turned politics into a sporting event where you have innings, quarters, periods, sets and halves which isn’t true. Polls and models are useful but not as predictive as some might think especially this far out.

For all the theatrics and the media BS.. as you mentioned, you still have the actual results since 2016

And while things have obviously been bad.. I have zero actual clue what trump has actually done to mend things with Nikki Haley primary voters and independents

Even in battle ground states, trump’s team isn’t doing the actual groundwork.. and we see how poorly attended his rallies are when actual pictures are shown, plus the lackluster responses outside his criminal trial

And it’s pretty easy to contrast their actual records

Sooooo outside of the media doing everything in their power to make things as interesting as possible.. the only actual strategy I can think of is trump’s team making things a mess and hoping Supreme Court could get involved (like bush v gore but on a grand scale)

 

[IATT]

These are the polls we never hear about

 

[IATT]

 

[IATT]

 

[rexanglorum]

I think that whatever the Democrats do should be guided by polling and focus groups, and not by what DC pundits and the chronically online have to say. If you base your political ideology and principles on polling and focus groups, shame on you. but if we're just narrowly talking about winning the next election, see what less engaged, ideologically non committed voters have to say.

That said, my gut tells me that the Dems best three choices, in order are

1.) Stay with Biden
2.) Have Kamala Harris run as an incumbent
3.) Have a mini, nation wide second primary and let the delegates hash things out and pick someone who did run in the primary in 2020.

I've already made the case for Biden and for option 3. So let me make a case for Kamala Harris.

1.) She ends this age question for good. She could shift the conversation from herself to what Trump said and is saying. The mainstream press will never facilitate a truly substantative conversation but it will start asking questions about Trump's cognitive decline. Ideology aside, someone saying totally unmoored to reality stuff, clearly and confidently, are usually crazier than people who speak general truths while tripping up on certain details.

2.) Kamala has not been a spectacular VP, lets not sugarcoat that. But she's brilliant (according to most lawyers I know, UC Berkeley's law school is far more meritocratic than any Ivy League school of law) and brilliant people often times become sloppy, undisciplined, and prone to bad habits when they aren't being challenged and the VP office is generally pretty unchallenging for any non George W headed administration. I think she'd respond well to pressure.

3.) Her law enforcement background is an overall asset. Us leftists will probably forever call her "Copmala," but that's because we have our doubts about anyone who has played any role in enforcing hierarchy, be they cops, prosecutors, hall monitors, or HOA officials, etc.. But overall, her experience as prosecutor will likely assuage some center leaning voters and her ability to make a case against Trump's agenda could be very useful and could open the eyes of a lot of normie voters.

4.) Speaking of the left, she's a Democrat so she'll get at least 70% of our vote. There's some on the left who will never vote for the Democratic Party. But there's still a small but geographically significant set of left swing voters out there. Their choice is Dems vs. 3rd party, stay home, and leaving presidential slot blank. I think that Kamala can win many of them over. If she were president, we would have, at the very minimum, the most knowledgeable President about Marxism in US history.

Biden probably thinks that socialism=Everyone gets paid the same, even brain surgeons. Trump probably thinks it means='when no food, lol."

Kamala was raised by Marxist, academic parents. even her goofy *** coconut tree remarks where about Historical Materialism. If I got to talk with her privately, we'd probably agree on the great questions of economics, class, and the extent to which class and caste conflicts drive History. She has been on the inside, she's seen how the system works, and she knows that the best one can do, from with in the system, is to restrain it and fundamental change will be won in the field by organizers. That is, ironically, the most leftists and Marxist of all takes on US politics. So she could throw us a few cultural bones and she's get like 85% of our vote.

(Just to be charitable to her haters, I'm not even going to mention the fact that she's to Biden's left on Palestine)

5.) Identity politics aren't the only thing; in fact, in electoral politics they only move the needle a little bit. But that little bit could decide things. People are looking at her and saying that Hillary was a women and she lost. But Hillary, despite carrying a lot of bad luck and baggage from Bill's neoliberalism, still won the popular vote by a lot in 2016. She lost in the EC and one might say that the same could happen to Kamala. But...

...I'd push back by saying that A.) Kamala has a clean slate compared to Clinton B.) Kamala could get those addition 100k votes in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania which lost Hillary Clinton the 2016 Election. In 2017, I was looking at the numbers and all of her bad luck aside, Hillary Clinton essentially lost the election in urban precincts in and around Detroit, Milwaukee, and Philadelphia. Harris' mere presence as a Black person in the race could change the make up the electorate enough to squeeze enough additional votes out of those places where Obama romped. She only has to partially recreate that energy and she's POTUS.



Of course, it's all risky and it looks like Biden will stay in it and I think he'll win but Dems should take a rare sigh of relief knowing that they have a strong substitute on deck.

 

[Belgium]

Biden’s mental capacity is obviously a massive issue imo but it’s infuriating to see how many potential voters or abstainers can’t see that Trump in peak condition might as well have been lobotomised.

For his entire career, virtually everything coming out of Trump’s mouth has been beyond ignorant, delusional, incoherent and increasingly unhinged.

But because he set the bar at the very bottom and generally looks/sounds pretty lively and energetic, some people are too blind to see past that veneer.

Somehow the endless void of mental deficiency in Trump’s brain is working in his favor.

Boris Johnson took great advantage of a similar situation. Boris’ image of being a dumb goofball helped him avoid tons of scrutiny, but unlike Trump he was actually an intelligent cunning piece of garbage who played up his goofy persona precisely for that political advantage.

 

[gry60]

This is not the agenda of a reasonable center right party.

Was there ever a reasonable center-right party in this country? The SC decision abolishing segregation broke their brains, and it's been 60+ years of trying to put the integration genie back in its lamp. One could argue that they've mostly been polite (until the black guy was elected), but policywise, they've always been exclusionary.

 

[dmbrhs]

Was there ever a reasonable center-right party in this country? The SC decision abolishing segregation broke their brains, and it's been 60+ years of trying to put the integration genie back in its lamp. One could argue that they've mostly been polite (until the black guy was elected), but policywise, they've always been exclusionary.

Could you imagine if someone introduced the Americans with Disabilities Act today? It passed almost unanimously in both chambers and signed into law by Bush in 1990. Today's GOP wouldn't even consider it.

 

[atlsfinest]

As many of us have said in this thread, this falls on the leadership within the Democratic party. Dean Phillips is goofy but he called this out months ago (and there are interviews where he is talking about Biden's cognitive decline almost a year ago). Democrats absolutely destroyed Phillips for even inferring that Biden might be declining.

The DNC made it exceedingly difficult for primary challengers to get funding, they made it difficult for them to get on ballots and Biden wasn't willing to debate against Democratic challengers (which makes sense for most incumbent candidates but if we had seen Biden debate a year ago, we might have been able to figure this out back then).

 

[Nike Jordan]

Dean Phillips didn't predict anything. Nobody cleared the field for Biden.

Serious primary challenges don't happen in presidential races because they are never successful and it would division within the party.

 

[atlsfinest]

Biden’s mental capacity is obviously a massive issue imo but it’s infuriating to see how many potential voters or abstainers can’t see that Trump in peak condition might as well have been lobotomised.

For his entire career, virtually everything coming out of Trump’s mouth has been beyond ignorant, delusional, incoherent and increasingly unhinged.

But because he set the bar at the very bottom and generally looks/sounds pretty lively and energetic, some people are too blind to see past that veneer.

Somehow the endless void of mental deficiency in Trump’s brain is working in his favor.

Boris Johnson took great advantage of a similar situation. Boris’ image of being a dumb goofball helped him avoid tons of scrutiny, but unlike Trump he was actually an intelligent cunning piece of garbage who played up his goofy persona precisely for that political advantage.

I totally agree and it is infuriating. When Biden has a verbal miscue his cognitive ability is questioned but when Trump rambles on incoherently it's chalked up to "well that's Trump being Trump, what do you expect?"

We saw something similar in the 2016 election cycle. Hillary's fewer, minor issues were highlighted constantly but Trump did equally stupid things on a literally daily basis during the entire campaign and it was ignored.

That being said, I think Biden should drop out because now there is a narrative forming around his cognitive ability (and worst of all there is some truth to it). From now until the election literally every step Joe takes will be scrutinized. Is he moving fast enough? Does he know what direction he's going? Lord forbid he trips on the sidewalk or something.

Every word of speech or public engagement will be put under a microscope. It's inescapable now and it will only get worse.

I expect the Democrats to roll with Biden but at this stage unless some external factor in the country changes, he will lose and he will likely drag some down ballot Democrats with him. Oh well.

I'm still riding with Joe. The scary part for Democrats is that they don't have a platform to run on other than "we can't let Trump win, our democracy isn't stake".

 

[Platinum State]

We shouldnt trust polls too much. Asking 1500 people doesnt paint the whole picture. You can ask 1500 more and a get a very different result

 

[osh kosh bosh]

Also when has Osh Kosh ever been right politically?

The pro Joe Biden arguments are so bad,
the supporters of this idea almost never make an affirmative case for how a Joe Biden is going to make a comeback.

they either piss down their legs at the thought of making a difficult decision.

or they resort to whataboutism, or amatuer media criticism.


everything I've said is factual. you can disagree with my conclusions if you want to, but at least make a substantive case for your course of action.

Joe Biden is currently losing.

you can sit around and complain about the New York times cover page decisions or you can actually do something.

 

[osh kosh bosh]

If you think Joe Biden should stay in the race.
fine, it's a tough call.

but you should make the case,
how is he going to comeback and win?

He is losing,

how does he stage a comeback when he can't do a normal campaign?

 

[atlsfinest]

If you think Joe Biden should stay in the race.
fine, it's a tough call.

but you should make the case,
how is he going to comeback and win?

He is losing,

how does he stage a comeback when he can't do a normal campaign?

Joe isn't dropping out. They can't force him out either.

Joe won't win but also the Democrats are still going to lose if they get another candidate (unless it is someone like Michelle Obama who has already indicated that she has no desire to run). They're going to lose regardless at this point.

It's a tough pill to swallow because the stakes are so high and Trump is still a historically unpopular candidate who (under normal circumstances) would be easy to defeat but the Democrats have bungled the entire situation.

I'm 36 and this is the first time that I really feel like Democrats are out of it with no real path to victory. The only other time I felt it would be a real uphill battle was 2004.

I'm still going to vote for Joe but I have no expectation that he will win

 

[earldagoat]

Call to the bullpen

 

[atlsfinest]

Call to the bullpen

Yeah, seeing the difference between Joe 4 years ago and him now is stark. Even if you think Joe is "OK" most of the time (which I generally agree with) you have to agree that he's not the same person he was 4 years ago. I can't even imagine the state he will be in 4 years from now if he survives that long.

My grandmother was in so much situation, she was sharp until her early '70s but when she started to deteriorate from Alzheimer's, it hit quick and she was unrecognizable.

 

[Wargames]

Yeah, seeing the difference between Joe 4 years ago and him now is stark. Even if you think Joe is "OK" most of the time (which I generally agree with) you have to agree that he's not the same person he was 4 years ago. I can't even imagine the state he will be in 4 years from now if he survives that long.

My grandmother was in so much situation, she was sharp until her early '70s but when she started to deteriorate from Alzheimer's, it hit quick and she was unrecognizable.

Yes Biden is physically old, and Biden has always had speaking issues due to his stutter. He’s had verbal slip up his whole career. However, now it’s just being weaponized with his age to say he’s mentally incapable for the job.

My question is always the same, and open to everyone, show me where from the last four years of his presidency where his age led to an incident or decision when you would question his cognitive function as a president?

When describing the debate there is also a trend to go into ageism where his bad debate is compared to actual cognitive diseases older people are susceptible to. However, there is no proof Biden has these diseases, people are just jumping to that conclusion because of a bad debate. It’s a perpetual logical fallacy. It’s unfortunate what happened to your grandmother but Biden being public speaking issues can just be attributed to his age and stutter, not his cognitive ability.

 

[Armada]

Again it frustrates me to no end that the left is able to have this discussion about what Biden should do and what would be best because ultimately their is standards there.

Meanwhile the “middle” never takes trump to task and we know the right has no standards.

It is CRAZY to me one side is so reasonable about standards and protecting democracy we can have a discussion about if he’s too old to run a few months away from voting day meanwhile a sexist racist felon is skating and there is nowhere near as much talk on if he should drop out from that side or the “middle”

This is just a cartoon at this point.

 

[osh kosh bosh]

"ageism"

??
cmon what are we doing here guys

 

[osh kosh bosh]

I find it extremely annoying to be on the same side as leftist grifters who I hate.

I've been saying for months now they want Joe Biden to lose, and many of them can barely contain their glee as they work to push Biden overboard.


but


I can't ignore the obvious reality of the situation.