Official NBA 2012-2013 Season Thread

[CP1708]

Simmons is a Celtic homer, and a Laker hater certified, but he LOVES the NBA and does know his stuff. He homers a bit much, but that's no different than having Magic up there. So they balance each other out.

I'm cool with the Simmons for the most part, I just tend to ignore most of his Celtic/Laker thoughts. I got really tired of hearing about Bias and Lewis every other discussion about 5 years ago, but he still keeps coming back with them. While back he talked about MJ not havin 6 if Lewis or Bias had survived.

 

[addict4sneakers]

Thunder need to develop Lamb so they can play small ball when appropriate. Kendrick Perkins is a liability on the offensive end. he has no business being on the floor when teams go small.

steve nash makes all the difference in the world. i wonder if him being a laker will make fans appreciate the two MVPs he deserved

 

[antidope]

Thunder need to develop Lamb so they can play small ball when appropriate. Kendrick Perkins is a liability on the offensive end. he has no business being on the floor when teams go small.

steve nash makes all the difference in the world. i wonder if him being a laker will make fans appreciate the two MVPs he deserved

They just need to give Collison more minutes. The stat that DatzNasty posted says it all.

Its crazy how this Laker team is like night and day with and without Nash. I still have not seen enough Nash praise in the Laker thread.

 

[bhzmafia14]

So, about everyone wanting James White in the dunk contest...

If he's pretty much going to do the same free throw line dunks, why does everyone want to see it? Unless he has some new tricks up his sleeve.

 

[al3xis]

Heat just are not a good match up for OKC. You either beat Miami by pounding them on the inside or whipping the ball around and getting open looks. Thunder do neither, and Miami's A player is still worth about a handful of possessions more than OKC's A player.

 

[CP1708]

steve nash makes all the difference in the world. i wonder if him being a laker will make fans appreciate the two MVPs he deserved

Stop baiting me.

Seriously, the best thing he does for our team so far is set screens. His IQ at that dirty little Stockton crap is unreal.

In terms of spacing, he was always gonna do that for us, I believe everyone thought we would play Duhon for the whole season, hence them cackling like hyienas the past 6 weeks. Duhon should firmly be sat in the 13th man's chair real soon, and that will be good for us, to say the least.

I still don't like him, or his bogus MVP's, but it's certainly noticeable going to him, from a decade of Derek Fisher. I forgot what PG's can do.

 

[pmatic]

It's going to be awkward as hell when Nash is hoisting up his third MVP.

Spoiler

 

[IATT]

I'm like 5 hrs late with this but we're still arguing it on about board and this gem of a stat came up
We've played the Heat 8 times in last 8 months and the stats with Perkins are just becoming painfully obvious. In the 8 games, the Thunder are 2-6 but only -15 points total.
In these 8 games Versus the Heat:

Thunder with Perkins oncourt is -32
Thunder with Perkins offcourt is +15

Thunder with Collison oncourt is +26
Thunder with Collison offcourt is -41

we all know perkins only serves a real purpose against certain teams.. everyone except brooks seems to know this

i would start out most games with ibaka and collison.. then you can give durant mins at the 4 with either ibaka or collison

i mean hell, it took brooks until game 6 of the mavs series 2 years ago (the final game of the series) to try westbrook and maynor together (this was before maynor tore his ACL and he was shooting 40+ from 3)

then as soon as we picked up fisher, brooks played westbrook and fisher together all the damn time

 

[CP1708]

It's going to be awkward as hell when Nash is hoisting up his third MVP.

Spoiler

*ignored*

 

[CP1708]

 

[proshares]

It's going to be awkward as hell when Nash is hoisting up his third MVP.

Spoiler

That would be awesome

 

[proshares]

Austin Rivers: Worst season ever?

Spoiler: Warning: Spoiler!

Thanks to the Chris Paul trade, the New Orleans Hornets joined the Portland Trail Blazers as one of two teams with a pair of picks in the lottery of last June's NBA draft. After taking Kentucky forward Anthony Davis No. 1 overall, the Hornets were also able to add another top one-and-done prospect, Duke guard Austin Rivers, with the 10th pick.

While Davis and Rivers were once considered perhaps the top two prospects in the country coming out of high school, they have had very different professional debuts. When healthy, Davis has lived up to the hype he generated as a National Player of the Year and national champion during his lone college season; he leads all rookies in PER. By contrast, Rivers has struggled with the transition to the NBA, in several ways -- that includes making only 34.6 percent of his shot attempts inside the 3-point line.

In fact, Rivers is on track to make dubious history during his rookie campaign. Two months into the season, Rivers projects to rate nearly seven wins worse than a replacement-level player by my player metric, which would be the worst WARP score in the 34 seasons on record, starting with 1979-80, the first NBA season with the 3-point line.


WORST WARP SCORES
Player Season Team Win % MPG WARP
Austin Rivers (projected) 2012-13 NOH .271 28.2 -6.9
Jason Collins 2006-07 NJN .250 23.1 -6.5
Adam Morrison 2006-07 CHA .300 29.9 -5.8
Michael Curry 2001-02 DET .273 23.3 -5.7
Desmond Mason 2006-07 NOH .313 34.3 -5.7
Desmond Mason 2005-06 NOH .292 30.1 -5.6
Trenton Hassell 2002-03 CHI .288 24.4 -5.3
Calbert Cheaney 2002-03 UTA .309 29.0 -5.3
Charlie Scott 1979-80 DEN .287 27.0 -5.2
Juwan Howard 1999-00 WAS .333 35.5 -5.2
Dickey Simpkins 1999-00 CHI .268 23.9 -5.2

WARP stands for Wins Above Replacement Player, because normally it is measuring a player's positive impact. But in the case of Rivers, it is measuring a player's negative impact on his team's efforts.

Like its baseball cousins, the various types of "WAR" that figured so prominently in this year's AL MVP debate, WARP is a value statistic that includes two components -- per-minute performance (measured by player win percentage) and minutes played. For players who rate better than replacement, more minutes translate into more value. That relationship flips for ineffective players such as Rivers, who play worse than the type of player a team could invite to training camp or call up from the D-League.

So a "replacement player" is what, exactly? It's the type of player who is easy to find when a team needs a replacement. To find a good example, look no further than Hornets guard Brian Roberts, who went undrafted out of Dayton before starring overseas and signing with the Hornets after a successful stint in summer league. Roberts has been far more effective than Rivers as both a scorer and distributor while making the NBA's minimum salary.

Of course, to build a historically negative WARP rating, a player has to be on the court in the first place. Most of the leaderboard is made up of defensive specialists whose value is not reflected by their individual statistics. Collins, for example, is one of the players most underrated by advanced box score stats.

Beyond that, the list is filled out by players who were overexposed on terrible teams and rookies whose potential demanded playing time that their performance did not yet justify. Rivers qualifies on both counts. With Eric Gordon out of the lineup, the 5-22 Hornets have few good alternatives in the backcourt despite Roberts' surprising performance. Backup wing Xavier Henry has been nearly as ineffective. The situation will change when Gordon returns to action after being cleared to practice over the weekend.

Still, Monty Williams will surely find regular playing time for Rivers, who appears to be a major part of New Orleans' future by virtue of the high pick the team used to draft him. Williams indicated as much to the New Orleans Times-Picayune earlier this month, saying, "I'm going to play him through his mistakes and it's going to help our program two or three years from now."

Because this Hornets season is going nowhere, the more important question is what Rivers' slow start says about his long-term development. Despite the cautionary example of Adam Morrison (see chart), the only rookie currently in the WARP bottom 10, a poor first season isn't necessarily a death knell for a player's career. Allan Houston, Chris Kaman and Glen Rice all developed into All-Stars after rating at least three wins below replacement as rookies. And none of those players was anywhere near as young or inexperienced as Rivers at the time.

Still, the more common outcome is that even those ineffective rookies who go on to long careers tend to never rate well statistically. Jeff Green, who had -4.1 WARP during his first season with the Seattle SuperSonics, is a good example. As much as young players tend to improve, the shape of their performance usually doesn't change, and Rivers' volume shooting has always played better among scouts than by the numbers.

Furthermore, the troubling aspect of Rivers' play this season is that it can't really be called a fluke. In fact, his per-minute win percentage (.271) is nearly exactly what his translated college stat line indicated (.274). Frankly, there is no track record of Rivers playing an efficient brand of basketball against high-level competition. He was one of the least valuable NBA players during the preseason, and even shot just 4-of-19 from the field in two summer-league games before suffering an ankle injury.

Supporters will point to Rivers' shot selection as the culprit for his poor percentages, but Hoopdata.com shows that the larger issue has been his inability to finish at the rim, where Rivers is making just 42.9 percent of his attempts (the league average is 63.9 percent). Though this will improve as Rivers learns to navigate rangy NBA shot-blockers, finishing is typically a skill players bring with them to the league. Bradley Beal, another one-and-done guard who has struggled at times during his rookie season, is shooting 61.0 percent at the rim.

Moreover, Rivers has yet to show the kind of dynamic playmaking the Hornets hoped would allow him to transition to point guard in the NBA. His assist rate is only slightly better than average for a shooting guard, let alone a lead ball handler. If Rivers is unable to handle the point, it will be difficult for him to coexist with a healthy Gordon in the New Orleans backcourt.

At age 20, Rivers has plenty of time to develop a more efficient game, possibly focused around the best skill he has shown so far -- 36.7 percent shooting from beyond the arc. If he gets there, his eventual style of play will bear little resemblance to his ineffective brand of basketball thus far.

 

[bigmike23]

Simmons is a Celtic homer, and a Laker hater certified, but he LOVES the NBA and does know his stuff. He homers a bit much, but that's no different than having Magic up there. So they balance each other out.
I'm cool with the Simmons for the most part, I just tend to ignore most of his Celtic/Laker thoughts. I got really tired of hearing about Bias and Lewis every other discussion about 5 years ago, but he still keeps coming back with them. While back he talked about MJ not havin 6 if Lewis or Bias had survived.

i agree with this. and him and jalen bring up facts and magic and wilbon try to blow both off because they are vets in watching bball

simmons knows his stuff tho.

 

[addict4sneakers]

steve nash makes all the difference in the world. i wonder if him being a laker will make fans appreciate the two MVPs he deserved

Stop baiting me.

 

[Chester McFloppy]

It's going to be awkward as hell when Nash is hoisting up his third MVP.

Spoiler

 

[Bert.]

Thunder need to develop Lamb so they can play small ball when appropriate. Kendrick Perkins is a liability on the offensive end. he has no business being on the floor when teams go small.


steve nash makes all the difference in the world. i wonder if him being a laker will make fans appreciate the two MVPs he deserved

They just need to give Collison more minutes. The stat that DatzNasty posted says it all.

Its crazy how this Laker team is like night and day with and without Nash. I still have not seen enough Nash praise in the Laker thread.

its only been two games, lets see how they play til all-star break.

hope it works out for them, i love nash.

 

[mronegative]

Kyrie's quickly becoming my favorite player.

 

[essential1]

its only been two games, lets see how they play til all-star break.

hope it works out for them, i love nash.

Lakers are much better than their record shows...

The stats back it up.

What has cost them was 3 games where they couldn't hit a Free Throw to save their life. And two games that were decided in the last 30 seconds..

Are they as good as they are supposed to be? No.

Are they a top 2 seed with their play? No.

But are they as bad as 14-14? No.

Again that could all be wiped out by an injury.

 

[Deleted member 38182]

Kyrie's quickly becoming my favorite player.

one on the left is just and average white guy.

One on the right could get it tho.

 

[dman14]

simmons knows his stuff, but he is not for tv. his podcasts and articles are great, but he just doesnt fit well in the studio. half the time magic doesnt even understand him

 

[CHAOSE57]

one on the left is just and average white guy.

One on the right could get it tho.

 

[mgrand15]

honestly, the whole panel is just so awkward, they all end up looking bad. magic is terrible on TV and most of the problems start with him. they don't really argue or interact with each other much - whether its by design or because they dont want to step on each others toes (none of them seem friendly towards each other) - i'm not sure. but it feels like they each just make a random point. it's like Magic is gonna talk about Lebron having 19 points REGARDLESS of what the question is or what anyone else says. its just odd.

i wonder how long it'll take simmons or jalen to complain about this awkward dynamic - they're both pretty outspoken but ESPN would NOT be happy with it.

 

[pmatic]

The ESPN panel needs someone that can direct the show the way Ernie does on TNT.

 

[Deleted member 38182]

The ESPN panel needs someone that can direct the show the way Ernie does on TNT.

I thought that was BS was there to do. But naw they got Jalen Rose trying to lead the way 

 

[ripc]

@vuhjynasaurus