It's hard to argue that the perception of Carter has really been wrong. His effort level did fall off when he wanted out of Toronto, even as he collected giant paychecks. He flopped in Phoenix, and those two missed free throws against Boston are only the most glaring lowlights in his career postseason underperformance. He has shot 40.2 percent or worse from the field in five of his seven trips to the playoffs, though he was productive in the other two — especially during a masterful 2005-06 run with the Nets. His playoff issues have given rise to the opinion around the league, including among his peers, that Carter is "too nice" to win, and that he was perhaps pressing in his quest to bring a title to the Magic.
Is all of it — the Toronto disgrace, the postseason flops, etc. — enough to keep him out of the Hall of Fame? It looked like it a year or so ago, when Carter appeared on his way out with career numbers that were very nice, but that did not quite confer Springfield lock status upon him. But he's averaging 13 per game now, shooting 42 percent from deep, and playing legitimately solid defense. He'll at least approach 22,000 career points this season, and with a guaranteed deal for next season, he has a shot to reach 23,000 if he stays healthy.
Only 13 players in NBA/ABA history have eclipsed 22,000 points, 5,000 rebounds, and 4,000 assists; Carter, Ray Allen, and Paul Pierce will make it 16 shortly, and a few others — Clyde Drexler, Gary Payton, Larry Bird — barely missed. Eleven of those 13 players are in the Hall of Fame, and the other two are Kevin Garnett and Kobe Bryant. There is obviously some major cherry-picking involved in selecting those numbers; Carter will barely make the rebound and assist totals, while several players, including Dirk Nowitzki, Hakeem Olajuwon, and Patrick Ewing, have blown away the 22,000/5,000 feat by a wide margin while falling short on the dimes. Still, the numbers are impressive, and if you like plus/minus stuff, Carter's teams have usually scored much more efficiently with him on the floor — and defended at about the same level with him on the floor as on the bench.
Numbers aren't everything; that's why Antawn Jamison, a horrid defender for much of his career, is unlikely to get in. Carter has long had the counting stats and regular-season numbers. It was the other stuff that had fans, players, and media members justifiably holding their noses when it came to Carter's Hall candidacy.
And that's fair. Carter has earned that skepticism. But that shouldn't blind us to a fun little late-career evolution happening in Dallas — the kind of evolution a lot of players never figure out. Only 21 of the 87 first-rounders in Carter's draft class and the subsequent two are even active in the league. Carter is still surprising us.