Official Carmelo Anthony Trade Rumors Thread (Carmelo is Officially a Knick)

[dmv is rnb]

DoubleJ's.... everytime Melo's name even comes up, your speech comes off so salty

 

[pmatic]

Why the Knicks should wait on Melo

The trade deadline is Feb. 24, and that means the clock is ticking for the Denver Nuggets and New York Knicks to work out a deal to put Carmelo Anthony in Madison Square Garden. But this is one deadline the Knicks should blow. Here’s why:

1. The 2010-11 Knicks are going nowhere
The New York Knicks are the sixth-best team in the Eastern Conference.

If they acquire Carmelo Anthony, they’ll probably still be the sixth-best team in the Eastern Conference.

Acquiring Anthony now probably wouldn’t help them a lot this season. They are four-and-a-half games behind the Orlando Magic and five behind the Atlanta Hawks in the standings, which are massive gaps at this point of the season. Furthermore, the Hollinger Playoff Odds project them to finish eight games behind the Hawks for fifth in the East.

If they were to somehow pass the Hawks, they might match up with Chicago, and one would have to give them a chance to pull off a first-round upset, given how they’ve handled the Bulls.

But how likely would they really be to get out of sixth place?

According to Win Shares, an advanced stat developed by Justin Kubatko of Basketball Reference, Melo has been worth about seven wins a season. Estimated Wins Added, a metric calculated by John Hollinger, is a little more Melo-friendly and puts him at about a dozen wins per year.

So split the difference and give Melo and the Knicks the benefit of the doubt here and say he’s worth about 10 wins per season, and say that they make the trade right away, giving them half the season on which to capitalize. That’s five more wins, still three short of Atlanta’s projected record. (And for the moment, the Hawks hold the home-court advantage over the Knicks, though that could change.)

2. The cost in assets is too high
Of course, none of that takes into account what the Knicks have to give up to get Anthony -- probably key players like Danilo Gallinari and Landry Fields, not to mention Bill Walker and assets like Anthony Randolph, the expiring contract of Eddy Curry and a first-round draft pick or two.

If we take the trade that Chris Sheridan suggested Wednesday night, then we find that the Knicks add only two wins (click this link to see why) -- again, well short of the Hawks.

Furthermore, team chemistry is an issue. The current Knicks have had time to adjust to one another, righting the ship for the most part after a choppy 3-8 start. Even the most upbeat analysis of Melo’s talents (such as this one) suggests that his fit with the Knicks is questionable, and certainly there’s a good chance that he won’t mesh immediately. To expect otherwise is wishful thinking.

3. The cost in dollars is too high
If the Knicks trade for him now, they are almost certainly paying him the max over the next four seasons, which works out to more than $20 million per season.

If you add that to the $20 million per season that Amare Stoudemire is getting for the next four seasons, then you can see that the vast majority of their cap space will be tied up in two players, severely constricting their flexibility going forward.

(The current salary cap is about $58 million. The best estimates say that the new salary cap will be closer to $50 million, and it might be much firmer, preventing the Knicks from going over the cap to the extent they’ve done before.)

4. If they wait, several good things can happen
A quick list:

• First, the Knicks don’t overpay now in terms of players, assets and salary. That’s no small thing.
• Second, they might have the whole dilemma removed, allowing them to move on. If they aren’t sure how much he will help them this season (and subsequently), this might be the best solution. We’ve seen repeatedly how uncertainty can weigh on a team when trade talk is in the air.
• Third, if Anthony decides to go into free agency, that means he is likely willing to forgo millions of dollars and has eyes for only the Knicks, which puts the team in an incredibly strong bargaining position. Then, if the Knicks do decide they want him, they can say, “Your pals LeBron and Dwyane took less to help the Heat build out their roster, and we want you to do the same.

 

[pmatic]

Why the Knicks should wait on Melo

The trade deadline is Feb. 24, and that means the clock is ticking for the Denver Nuggets and New York Knicks to work out a deal to put Carmelo Anthony in Madison Square Garden. But this is one deadline the Knicks should blow. Here’s why:

1. The 2010-11 Knicks are going nowhere
The New York Knicks are the sixth-best team in the Eastern Conference.

If they acquire Carmelo Anthony, they’ll probably still be the sixth-best team in the Eastern Conference.

Acquiring Anthony now probably wouldn’t help them a lot this season. They are four-and-a-half games behind the Orlando Magic and five behind the Atlanta Hawks in the standings, which are massive gaps at this point of the season. Furthermore, the Hollinger Playoff Odds project them to finish eight games behind the Hawks for fifth in the East.

If they were to somehow pass the Hawks, they might match up with Chicago, and one would have to give them a chance to pull off a first-round upset, given how they’ve handled the Bulls.

But how likely would they really be to get out of sixth place?

According to Win Shares, an advanced stat developed by Justin Kubatko of Basketball Reference, Melo has been worth about seven wins a season. Estimated Wins Added, a metric calculated by John Hollinger, is a little more Melo-friendly and puts him at about a dozen wins per year.

So split the difference and give Melo and the Knicks the benefit of the doubt here and say he’s worth about 10 wins per season, and say that they make the trade right away, giving them half the season on which to capitalize. That’s five more wins, still three short of Atlanta’s projected record. (And for the moment, the Hawks hold the home-court advantage over the Knicks, though that could change.)

2. The cost in assets is too high
Of course, none of that takes into account what the Knicks have to give up to get Anthony -- probably key players like Danilo Gallinari and Landry Fields, not to mention Bill Walker and assets like Anthony Randolph, the expiring contract of Eddy Curry and a first-round draft pick or two.

If we take the trade that Chris Sheridan suggested Wednesday night, then we find that the Knicks add only two wins (click this link to see why) -- again, well short of the Hawks.

Furthermore, team chemistry is an issue. The current Knicks have had time to adjust to one another, righting the ship for the most part after a choppy 3-8 start. Even the most upbeat analysis of Melo’s talents (such as this one) suggests that his fit with the Knicks is questionable, and certainly there’s a good chance that he won’t mesh immediately. To expect otherwise is wishful thinking.

3. The cost in dollars is too high
If the Knicks trade for him now, they are almost certainly paying him the max over the next four seasons, which works out to more than $20 million per season.

If you add that to the $20 million per season that Amare Stoudemire is getting for the next four seasons, then you can see that the vast majority of their cap space will be tied up in two players, severely constricting their flexibility going forward.

(The current salary cap is about $58 million. The best estimates say that the new salary cap will be closer to $50 million, and it might be much firmer, preventing the Knicks from going over the cap to the extent they’ve done before.)

4. If they wait, several good things can happen
A quick list:

• First, the Knicks don’t overpay now in terms of players, assets and salary. That’s no small thing.
• Second, they might have the whole dilemma removed, allowing them to move on. If they aren’t sure how much he will help them this season (and subsequently), this might be the best solution. We’ve seen repeatedly how uncertainty can weigh on a team when trade talk is in the air.
• Third, if Anthony decides to go into free agency, that means he is likely willing to forgo millions of dollars and has eyes for only the Knicks, which puts the team in an incredibly strong bargaining position. Then, if the Knicks do decide they want him, they can say, “Your pals LeBron and Dwyane took less to help the Heat build out their roster, and we want you to do the same.

 

[kapstone]

Nuggets should just keep him for the rest of the year - unless the knicks will take harrington's contract, nothing they have to offer seems like it would help rebuild, only strap the nuggets with more contracts they dont need...

 

[kapstone]

Nuggets should just keep him for the rest of the year - unless the knicks will take harrington's contract, nothing they have to offer seems like it would help rebuild, only strap the nuggets with more contracts they dont need...

 

[trynafeelmink]

Originally Posted by DoubleJs07

Dallas, Houston, Portland, Philly, Indy, etc...

teams that are either 7/8 seeds or fighting to get in the playoffs and believe that Melo is the missing piece to the puzzle for their push.

None of these teams are anywhere near a contender with melo he knows this and they know this... why would any of these teams gamble their future for a early playoff exit it makes 0 sense. The only team who would benifit from a rental is dallas and they have nobody to give denver
  

 

[trynafeelmink]

Originally Posted by DoubleJs07

Dallas, Houston, Portland, Philly, Indy, etc...

teams that are either 7/8 seeds or fighting to get in the playoffs and believe that Melo is the missing piece to the puzzle for their push.

None of these teams are anywhere near a contender with melo he knows this and they know this... why would any of these teams gamble their future for a early playoff exit it makes 0 sense. The only team who would benifit from a rental is dallas and they have nobody to give denver
  

 

[krazy88s]

Denver has to make a move. I'm sure they don't wanna get Toronto Raptored or Cleveland Cavaliered.

 

[krazy88s]

Denver has to make a move. I'm sure they don't wanna get Toronto Raptored or Cleveland Cavaliered.

 

[mronegative]

I'm greedy and hungry as hell. Kinda wanted a center for the MLE we won't have if we sign Melo outright.

 

[mronegative]

I'm greedy and hungry as hell. Kinda wanted a center for the MLE we won't have if we sign Melo outright.

 

[deuce king]

Originally Posted by krazy88s

Denver has to make a move. I'm sure they don't wanna get Toronto Raptored or Cleveland Cavaliered.

At this point in time it looks like thats is what is going to happen to Denver regardless.  No team wants to just rent Melo for half a season be it for a playoff push or not by giving up some of their draft picks and current roster members.  There's nothing Denver can really do particularly because EVERYBODY knows that Melo wants to play for the Knicks.  That is what was so different from what went down this summer with the 3 that play in Miami.  They all kept that "secret" to themselves and nobody in the media knew about it really until it was too late.  With Melo on the otherhand it's kinda well known that he wants to play for New York so no other team in their "right mind" would try or should try to pursue him.  Denver is in a lose/lose situation and there's nothing they can do about it.
  

 

[deuce king]

Originally Posted by krazy88s

Denver has to make a move. I'm sure they don't wanna get Toronto Raptored or Cleveland Cavaliered.

At this point in time it looks like thats is what is going to happen to Denver regardless.  No team wants to just rent Melo for half a season be it for a playoff push or not by giving up some of their draft picks and current roster members.  There's nothing Denver can really do particularly because EVERYBODY knows that Melo wants to play for the Knicks.  That is what was so different from what went down this summer with the 3 that play in Miami.  They all kept that "secret" to themselves and nobody in the media knew about it really until it was too late.  With Melo on the otherhand it's kinda well known that he wants to play for New York so no other team in their "right mind" would try or should try to pursue him.  Denver is in a lose/lose situation and there's nothing they can do about it.
  

 

[franchise3]

Originally Posted by tyisny

Originally Posted by DoubleJs07

Dallas, Houston, Portland, Philly, Indy, etc...

teams that are either 7/8 seeds or fighting to get in the playoffs and believe that Melo is the missing piece to the puzzle for their push.

None of these teams are anywhere near a contender with melo he knows this and they know this... why would any of these teams gamble their future for a early playoff exit it makes 0 sense. The only team who would benifit from a rental is dallas and they have nobody to give denver
  

Basically to call Melo's bluff at the end of the year.

If he really wants to go to NY, he'd have to opt out of 18M, and then sign with the Knicks, and it won't be close to the 65M that he has in front of him, either.

Also, some believe that when the new CBA is in place I read, the NBA could very well have a 'franchise tag' like the NFL.

In reality also, a team like Houston, ain't really giving up much to rent Melo.

Yao is done, all he is an expiring contract, NYK's 2012 draft pick, Hill, etc, etc.

Too bad I don't see it happening though.

 

[franchise3]

Originally Posted by tyisny

Originally Posted by DoubleJs07

Dallas, Houston, Portland, Philly, Indy, etc...

teams that are either 7/8 seeds or fighting to get in the playoffs and believe that Melo is the missing piece to the puzzle for their push.

None of these teams are anywhere near a contender with melo he knows this and they know this... why would any of these teams gamble their future for a early playoff exit it makes 0 sense. The only team who would benifit from a rental is dallas and they have nobody to give denver
  

Basically to call Melo's bluff at the end of the year.

If he really wants to go to NY, he'd have to opt out of 18M, and then sign with the Knicks, and it won't be close to the 65M that he has in front of him, either.

Also, some believe that when the new CBA is in place I read, the NBA could very well have a 'franchise tag' like the NFL.

In reality also, a team like Houston, ain't really giving up much to rent Melo.

Yao is done, all he is an expiring contract, NYK's 2012 draft pick, Hill, etc, etc.

Too bad I don't see it happening though.

 

[prostaffer]

Originally Posted by BangDak

Same logic with the Bulls, who can they give up?



They've been trying to get rid of Deng for years, who you trying to play?

Not sure how valid it was, but the rumor was the bulls offered deng, gibson, james johnson and 2 first rounders.

JJ is a bum, but gibson is a strong player and deng is a nice piece, just over paid.

What are the knicks offering? Plus I'm sure Denver is weary of players coming from NY since we all know D'Antoni player tend to have inflated stats in his system.

 

[prostaffer]

Originally Posted by BangDak

Same logic with the Bulls, who can they give up?



They've been trying to get rid of Deng for years, who you trying to play?

Not sure how valid it was, but the rumor was the bulls offered deng, gibson, james johnson and 2 first rounders.

JJ is a bum, but gibson is a strong player and deng is a nice piece, just over paid.

What are the knicks offering? Plus I'm sure Denver is weary of players coming from NY since we all know D'Antoni player tend to have inflated stats in his system.

 

[debso]

he'll make all the money he'd lose back in ny IMO. no way he doesn't make that money back in this market.

 

[debso]

he'll make all the money he'd lose back in ny IMO. no way he doesn't make that money back in this market.

 

[franchise3]

What I can't believe is how Walsh can still get a 1st rounder for Anthony Randolph, to use in the Melo sweepstakes.

AR is a bum

 

[franchise3]

What I can't believe is how Walsh can still get a 1st rounder for Anthony Randolph, to use in the Melo sweepstakes.

AR is a bum

 

[cosmiccanon]

Originally Posted by Crumbs

Denver better accept a lowball from the Knicks before they lose him for 0

this

 

[cosmiccanon]

Originally Posted by Crumbs

Denver better accept a lowball from the Knicks before they lose him for 0

this

 

[assyrianplaya]

Originally Posted by BangDak

Same logic with the Bulls, who can they give up?



They've been trying to get rid of Deng for years, who you trying to play?

Statistically Deng has been better than Melo....please know what you are talking about if you are going to diss Deng. i threw in another player to show what a comparable sf would like.

 

[assyrianplaya]

Originally Posted by BangDak

Same logic with the Bulls, who can they give up?



They've been trying to get rid of Deng for years, who you trying to play?

Statistically Deng has been better than Melo....please know what you are talking about if you are going to diss Deng. i threw in another player to show what a comparable sf would like.