- Nov 18, 2010
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Don't be ridiculous. Walsh is smart enough not to overpay, but given the opportunity, he will pony up to secure Anthony's services before the deadline and the end of the current CBA.
Further breakdown:
http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/insider/columns/story?columnist=ford_chad&page=MeloMyths-110118
Further breakdown:
http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/insider/columns/story?columnist=ford_chad&page=MeloMyths-110118
Myth 3: If the Nuggets and Knicks can't reach a deal, Melo will just hold out and sign a max contract with the Knicks this summer via free agency.
He does have that option, but there are two big reasons that Knicks fans shouldn't count on this happening.
First, he's never indicated he's willing to take the risk involved in refusing to sign the extension that's on the table. In fact, I haven't spoken to one source in the league that thinks he would.
Why? If Melo becomes a free agent this year, he is suddenly risking more than $80 million -- a guaranteed $18.5 million next year plus almost $65 million in a three-year extension, which averages out to better than $20 million per season for four seasons, carrying him to age 31, when he could presumably get another big contract.
He could make some of that money back in free agency (barring health issues). But with the NBA's collective bargaining agreement set to expire on July 1, there is a great deal of uncertainty about the rules under which Anthony would sign his next contract if he decides to become a free agent.
Owners want to shorten the maximum length and dollar amount of contracts, lower the salary cap and install a hard salary cap. While it's unlikely the owners will get everything they want, they'll probably get some of it, which means it's almost certain that the best deal Anthony can get is between now and Feb. 24. That explains why the CBA is on his mind, as he confirmed in an ESPN interview last week.
Second, the Knicks don't have the cap space to sign Anthony to a max contract this summer.
Even if the team were to renounce key players Chandler and Shawne Williams, along with Curry, Kelenna Azubuike and Roger Mason, they would have only $12.5 million or so in cap space (assuming no changes in the league's salary cap). With Melo set to earn $18.5 million next year, that would be a huge pay cut.
If the Knicks were to trade Randolph for an expiring contract before the trade deadline, they would get another $2.9 million with which to work. After that, they'd likely try to move either Ronny Turiaf or Timofey Mozgov to clear the rest of the cap space they would need. Turiaf has an expiring contract and Mozgov's contract is only partially guaranteed that year, and both would have some value on the market. But knowing that the Knicks were desperate, teams would try to take advantage of them the same way Houston did at the trade deadline in 2009, when the Knicks were trying to get Jared Jeffries off their books.
It gets even more complicated. All of that assumes that the league has the same salary cap (about $58 million) that it did last year. But no one I have talked to believes that the salary cap will be as high when the new collective bargaining agreement takes effect. In that case, the Knicks would have to clear even more cap space.
So while it's not impossible for the Knicks to hand Anthony a max contract in free agency, it's not a slam dunk, and the Knicks are likely to lose several talented players in the process.