OKLAHOMA CITY -- The narratives couldn't be more opposite.
Yet, once again, the career paths of Russell Westbrook and Derrick Rose couldn't be more similar.
Big picture, these are two of the most unique players in history -- big, athletic, score-first point guards with shaky jump shots but spectacular finishing skills -- and I have a feeling we're going to be watching them in May and June for much of the next decade. Chicago and Oklahoma City were first and second in the Future Power Rankings that colleague Chad Ford and I compiled in March, and it seems inevitable that at some point these two forces of nature will collide in the Finals.
Statistically, they couldn't be more alike, either. They were second and third in the league in usage rate (after Kobe Bryant) and finished within one-hundredth of a point of each other in PER. Rose was first team All-NBA, Westbrook was second. Each is 6-foot-3, was born in late 1988 and was drafted in 2008.
It's somewhat jarring, then, that the narratives about their respective games are so opposed -- suffice it to say that commentators are not pondering trade scenarios for Rose. In fact, Rose's high-usage, middling-efficiency game is viewed as heroic on a Bulls team that surprisingly posted the best record in the league, earning him the MVP award as a result. But on a team with Kevin Durant, Westbrook's similar approach is seen as at best imperfect and at worst downright counterproductive.
Their situations are more similar than you think, however. Westbrook has better weapons alongside him, without question, but those weapons have a curious inability to get themselves open, which often leaves Westbrook in the exact same situation as Rose: holding the bag as the shot clock ticks down. Westbrook is also the more extreme of the two in playing this style -- he takes a higher proportion of his shots at the basket, draws more fouls, shoots worse from outside and makes more questionable decisions.
Yet Rose isn't known as the Human Assist either -- his assist ratio this season, believe it or not, was worse than Westbrook's. This is one of many reasons why I wonder, and will continue to wonder, if we'd see each in the exact opposite light if they switched teams.
Putting aside that conjecture, let's snap back to the present, where we see another great parallel between Rose and Westbrook: Both are shooting blanks in the conference finals, and as a result the Bulls and Thunder have their backs against the wall. Rose is shooting 25-of-64 (39.1 percent) in three games against Miami, while Westbrook is 25-of-72 (34.7 percent) in four games against Dallas.
Once again, each is creating a multitude of shots: They're first and second in playoff usage rate.
Converting shots? Not so much. Rose's postseason true shooting percentage is 51.7 despite his facing some pretty light opposition in the first two rounds, while Westbrook has labored to a 50.1 true shooting percentage.
Additionally, Westbrook has provided more fodder for criticism with a spiking turnover rate -- in the playoffs, he is averaging 5.3 miscues per game and has more turnovers than assists. While it's easy to pile up turnovers with seven games against Memphis' handsy defense, this is still unacceptable.
But to me, the shooting story is the one that really gets interesting. For Westbrook, it's amazing how badly his jump shot has gone off the rails in the postseason. He isn't a good shooter in normal circumstances, but he isn't this awful. In the regular season he was about a 1-in-3 proposition from beyond 15 feet, making 36.0 percent of his shots from 16-23 feet and 33 percent of his 3s.
But in his past 12 playoff games, Westbrook has made only 15 of 56 jump shots (26.8 percent) in the 16-23 foot range, and just 8 of 32 3-pointers. These have nearly all been wide-open shots, too, as opponents continually go under screens and dare him to shoot from outside. Yet since the first two games against Denver, he has been unable to take advantage. As a result, he is shooting a ghastly 34.7 percent for the playoffs. Only his tremendous ability to draw fouls -- he is averaging 11 free throw attempts a game in the postseason -- salvages his stat line.
As for Rose, his floater game has deserted him. As our Tom Haberstroh noted on Twitter, Rose made 57.5 percent of his shots from 3-9 feet in 2009-10, but only 39.7 percent this season and just 32 percent in the playoffs.
And that improved long-range jumper he flashed in the regular season? Not sure where that went. Rose is shooting 26.2 percent on 3s in the playoffs on six attempts a game; even if you subtracted out some 70-foot end-of-the-quarter heaves, it's still a big step back from the regular season.
Rose has made his midrange J against Miami (9-of-19), but as with Westbrook this is the shot opponents want him to take; he made only 38.0 percent from 16-23 feet in the regular season. (Westbrook made 36.0 percent.)
For both, it's the shots at the rim that have been harder to come by and harder to convert. The Miami series has been a steady series of Rose's drives to the rim being snuffed by extra Miami defenders, a theme that will sound familiar to anyone watching the Thunder the past few weeks. Each player shot 60 percent at the rim in the regular season while drawing piles of fouls, but opponents are taking this away and inducing jump shots.
In addition to the cold shooting, both Rose and Westbrook are facing another opponent for the first time: scrutiny. Rose evaded it all year with the Bulls' surprise ascent, but I saw a couple of commentators compare him to Westbrook (in unflattering terms, of course) after some wild shot attempts in Game 3.
Meanwhile, many fans and observers are getting their first extended look at Westbrook and wondering why so many "plays" consist of 15 seconds of dribbling and a missed jump shot. Having taken in heavy doses of OKC the past few weeks, I can tell you that Durant's and James Harden's faltering efforts to move off the ball explain a decent chunk of this, but it's also fair to describe Westbrook's decision-making as badly needing improvement.
So get your shots in now, everyone -- it's only going to get harder from here. Both players are 22, both are ferocious competitors and both are still learning on the fly. Right now Rose is the golden boy and Westbrook is the metaphorical redheaded stepchild, but in the big picture they're birds of a feather. In time, once they figure out what teams are doing to them and come back with better tactics and better jump shots, they're going to be impossible to contain.
Even for each other when they meet head-to-head in the Finals. Which, despite their hiccups in these conference finals and their diametrically opposite narratives, remains a very strong possibility in the near future.
