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Dirk torches Thunder in Game 1 victory[/h1]
In case you missed Tuesday night’s shootathon in Dallas, here are some of the biggest storylines to come out of the Mavericks’ 121-112 series-opening victory over the Thunder, and what to look forward to in Thursday’s Game 2:
• Dirk Nowitzki’s individual performance was obviously brilliant (48 points on 12-for-15 shooting from the field and 24-of-24 from the free-throw line), but the level to which he is lifting the Mavs’ overall offense is extraordinary. Dallas is
averaging 115.9 points per 100 possessions in the postseason. No team in the history of the league has scored so efficiently over a full season,
according to Basketball-Reference’s database, and only six have cracked the 115 barrier. Four of those teams featured Michael Jordan, Larry Bird or Magic Johnson.
The Thunder rank second in the playoffs with an average of 110.2 points per 100 possessions. That gap of 5.7 points per 100 possessions between Dallas and Oklahoma City is about the same as the gap between the league’s top-ranked offense in the regular season and the 18th-ranked offense.
It’s crazy to see such a wide margin. It’s even crazier that Dallas is managing this in the playoffs, when scoring generally dips; the league is averaging about 1.2 fewer points per possession in the postseason.
• To put Dirk’s performance in perspective,
here is the complete list of players who have scored 45 or more points on 16 or fewer field-goal attempts in a regular-season game since the start of the 1985-86 season.
• What was interesting about Game 1 was the degree to which Dallas worked from simple post-up sets. The Mavs finished 23 percent of their possessions in the post, up from 9.8 percent in the regular season,
according to the stat-tracking service Synergy Sports. That’s massive, and it’s mostly a function of the Thunder’s total inability to defend Nowitzki there. As badly as Nowitzki torched Serge Ibaka and Nick Collison, I wonder if Oklahoma City coach Scott Brooks regrets all the experimenting he did with Thabo Sefolosha and James Harden guarding the Dallas forward. Those guys had no chance, and the points Dallas piled up via those mismatches turned out to be more important than it appeared they would be, since the Thunder rallied late.
• Thing to watch going forward: The Thunder had Ibaka jump out hard on ball-handlers when the Mavs ran pick-and-rolls with Nowitzki as the screener. That surprised me because playing it that way gives Nowitzki space to roll to the rim or pop out for jumpers.
But the Mavs didn’t really hurt the Thunder for this approach — with a few exceptions. Ibaka played the passing lanes pretty well as he recovered to Nowitzki, and the Thunder guard defending the ball-handler did a nice job of bumping Dirk or lingering near him just long enough to throw off Dallas’ timing.
And when that failed, Russell Westbrook helped liberally off Jason Kidd. Watch for this in the next game. A great example: At the 5:40 mark of the first quarter, Jason Terry and Nowitzki ran a pick-and-pop on the right sideline. Ibaka left Nowitzki to trap Terry, allowing Dirk to pop free near the top of the circle. This was a nightmare scenario for the Thunder, as Dirk had the choice of a wide-open jumper or driving through the lane. But as Nowitzki readied to make the catch, Westbrook was on his back, ready to swipe at the ball. And where was Kidd? Totally unguarded, on the other side of the floor.
Different versions of this happened throughout the game. Even when it was Kendrick Perkins who left his man to take Nowitzki, he did so with the knowledge that Westbrook would leave Kidd and crash down on Dallas’ center.
Kidd was just 1-of-3 from the floor, but he did notch 11 assists, largely by making easy passes to open players as the Thunder recovered from overloading on Nowitzki. But Oklahoma City, in Game 1 at least, designated Kidd as someone it could leave open.
• For whatever reason, the Thunder abandoned the hard-hedging strategy against the Nowitzki/J.J. Barea pick-and-roll in the second half. As Barea dribbled around the Nowitzki pick, Ibaka either stayed attached to Nowitzki or gave a token reach toward Barea while keeping his other arm on Dirk’s waist. This was how the Lakers defended this play in the second round, and Barea again took advantage by getting into the lane and creating problems.
A note of encouragement for the Thunder: They managed this play better when Westbrook re-entered the game in the fourth quarter. Westbrook did what Lakers fans were screaming for their guys to do — go under the pick and dare Barea to shoot mid-range jumpers. Of course, Barea hit both a three-pointer and a mid-range shot against this strategy, but you have to concede those.
• Thunder guard Nate Robinson was awful, and we may not see him again for a while. He had no clue how to negotiate those Barea pick-and-rolls, nearly running into Ibaka at least twice as Barea pranced into the paint. And the one time Robinson successfully cut off Barea, the Mavs reset, and Barea just blew by a flat-footed Robinson in isolation.
• Kevin Durant said after the game that he bet his house on Westbrook not shooting 3-of-15 again, and he’s probably right. But the Thunder have now played Dallas four times this season, and Westbrook is 17-of-59 (29 percent). He has gotten to the line a ton, but it’s very hard to come out a net positive if you’re shooting 30 percent from the floor.
Dallas has found a way, in both zone and man defenses, to force Westbrook into tricky mid-range shots — and to contest those shots at least mildly. And when Westbrook gets to the rim, the combined length of Nowitzki and Tyson Chandler is bothering him. We all gush over the length of the Lakers’ frontcourt, but as Dean Oliver and Pete Newmann
pointed out at ESPN.com recently, Dallas can nearly match the Lakers in that sense. That has been an underrated thing for the Mavs all year.
• On the bright side for the Thunder: Shawn Marion cannot guard Durant. The scoring champ is too quick for Marion off the dribble and running around screens, and Dallas is going to have a tough time even limiting Durant in man-to-man situations. It was only one game, but Chandler was not as aggressive as Marc Gasol in jumping off his man and blitzing Durant on those Ray Allen-style baseline screen plays, when Durant pops out toward the foul line area. That’s one adjustment the Mavs might be able to make in Game 2.
• There was a telling possession at the 4:30 mark of the fourth quarter, when Nowitzki set up on the right block with Marion behind the three-point line on the right wing. Durant basically ignored Marion and stood in front of Nowitzki, denying the entry pass. This is going to be an issue all series, and perhaps the Thunder will sag off Marion even more dramatically in the future. This should be a bonus of having Durant on your team, after all; the Mavs need Marion on the floor a lot (foul trouble aside), and tighter spacing is the punishment for that.
• Another possible good harbinger for the Thunder: Dallas’ offense was a mess when Nowitzki sat, especially during the first quarter, when it devolved into a series of going-nowhere pick-and-rolls, hot-potato passes around the perimeter and one Terry airball. The Mavs were minus-3 in the seven minutes Dirk sat.
• You could tell the difference in quickness between the Thunder and Lakers, couldn’t you? The close-outs were better, and there were many more instances of a Dallas spot-up guy starting his shooting motion only to close it down at the last second as his defender recovered. Some of the threes Dallas made were tough looks, at least compared to the gimmies it got against Los Angeles.