MVP
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- Feb 28, 2008
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Who's "we"?
**LA LAKERS THREAD** Sitting on 17! 2023-2024 offseason begins
- Thread in 'Sports & Training' Thread starter Started by licensed to ball,
- Start date
- Dec 17, 2005
- 23,933
- 5,933
Barneys :x
- Dec 8, 2004
- 2,453
- 403
Say the Lakers make a deal like this
View media item 2311648
Lakers get an established PG like Rubio who can play with Russell and really help Russell do what he's good at, or at least should be good at, spot up shooting, posting up, and moving without the ball.
You give up Williams, who I love but is somewhat redundant with Clarkson, Williams goes over to the Wolves and helps a team trying to win now.
Muhammed is a good player, 1 year left so we can free up the money, and Tarik is great but maybe its time to put Zubac in that role and let him learn.
Would you guys rather do this or go all out on the Tank?
My thinking is you know what you get with Rubio, good defender, great passer, and a team first guy, with the draft you might get a stud, but you never know either, and we don't even know if we get the pick.
Slow day at work...trade machine has been my friend today.
View media item 2311648
Lakers get an established PG like Rubio who can play with Russell and really help Russell do what he's good at, or at least should be good at, spot up shooting, posting up, and moving without the ball.
You give up Williams, who I love but is somewhat redundant with Clarkson, Williams goes over to the Wolves and helps a team trying to win now.
Muhammed is a good player, 1 year left so we can free up the money, and Tarik is great but maybe its time to put Zubac in that role and let him learn.
Would you guys rather do this or go all out on the Tank?
My thinking is you know what you get with Rubio, good defender, great passer, and a team first guy, with the draft you might get a stud, but you never know either, and we don't even know if we get the pick.
Slow day at work...trade machine has been my friend today.
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MVP
Supporter
- Feb 28, 2008
- 83,040
- 85,631
Acquiring Rubio will only expedite tank cause it'll free up more minutes for the young guys. I say do it, but no way that package gets it done.
- Dec 8, 2004
- 2,453
- 403
I mean i'd throw in Moz or Deng in there but i'm assuming the Wolves aren't that dumb.
Lou and Tarik are good contracts and are not that long.
MVP
Supporter
- Feb 28, 2008
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They can get a lot more than Lou for Rubio and Shabazz. And why would they take Deng or Mosgov? They aren't in any dire cap straits, especially with Pek retiring at the end of the season.
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- Nov 1, 2011
- 2,433
- 1,128
Nick Young to Houston makes sense.
He played well under MDA, lots of LA guys on that team and Corey Brewer has been terrible.
He played well under MDA, lots of LA guys on that team and Corey Brewer has been terrible.
MVP
Supporter
- Feb 28, 2008
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This is great tanking strategy.
- Sep 5, 2010
- 92,865
- 129,184
Kevin Pelton:
How far away are the Lakers from winning?
How far away are the Lakers from winning?
The Lakers reached rock bottom in a 49-point loss on Sunday, the anniversary of Kobe Bryant's 81-point game against the Toronto Raptors.
L.A. managed just 73 points against the Mavericks, taking them down to 6-22 since the start of December. Only the 4-22 Brooklyn Nets have been worse in that span.
With the excitement of the Lakers' 10-10 start now a distant memory, it's worth checking in on their young core to see how far away the Lakers are from competing in the Western Conference -- and whether this group will be intact when they get there.
Randle and Russell have slumped since strong starts
The Lakers' unexpectedly strong start was built primarily on offense. Even when they were .500, they ranked 27th in the league in defensive rating, according to NBA.com/Stats.
View media item 2311689
Since then, the Lakers' defense has only gotten worse while their offense has cratered. They've dropped to 25th in the NBA in offensive rating after ranking in the top half of the league through November. (That's a better indication of their decline than the raw numbers because leaguewide offensive performance has trended upward.)
In part, that can be blamed on injuries to starting guards D'Angelo Russell (currently out 1-2 weeks with a sprained MCL and a strained calf muscle) and Nick Young. According to NBA.com/Stats, the Lakers have managed less than a point per possession with injury replacements Jose Calderon and Marcelo Huertas on the court this season.
However, it also reflects recent lottery picks Russell and Julius Randle fading after strong starts. At the end of November, Randle's true shooting percentage was an impressive .572, a dramatic improvement from the .482 mark he posted in his first full season. Since then, it has dropped to .525. Meanwhile, Russell's true shooting percentage has dropped from .534 to .489, worse than his .507 mark as a rookie.
Randle's development is a fascinating case study. According to NBAwowy.com, when playing power forward alongside one of the team's traditional centers (Timofey Mozgov, Tarik Black and Ivica Zubac), he has shot about the same dismal percentage on 2-point attempts (43.6 percent) as he did in 2015-16 (43.5 percent). Randle's improvement, then, can largely be traced to playing in smaller lineups with better floor spacing. When he's the lone big man on the court, Randle shoots an incredible 65.8 percent on 2-point attempts.
Lineups with Randle as the lone big man have scored 113.1 points per 100 possessions, a mark bettered this season only by the Golden State Warriors (113.6). Unfortunately, the Lakers have given up 116.2 points per 100 possessions, as Randle doesn't have the ability to anchor a defense as a center. His improved playmaking (Randle has doubled his assist rate this season) is encouraging, but Randle can only become a plus contributor if he scores efficiently as a power forward.
The same is true for Russell, who has proved more capable of creating shots than hitting them thus far in his NBA career. Because Russell rarely gets to the basket off the dribble and doesn't finish well there (he's shooting only 57.1 percent inside 3 feet this season, per Basketball-Reference.com), that will likely require improving his average 3-point shooting (34.9 percent career).
Russell has actually shot well (43.0 percent) on catch-and-shoot 3s, according to SportVU tracking on NBA.com/Stats. It's pull-up 3s that have been an issue: Russell is making them at a 27.7 percent clip, and because most of those come when opponents go under screens, Russell is averaging just 0.65 points on pick-and-roll plays, second worst among players with at least 100 such attempts, via Synergy Sports charting.
Do the Lakers have a star on the roster?
After years of neglecting the draft and the back end of the roster, the Lakers have done a better job of adding supporting talent in recent seasons. Larry Nance Jr., a late 2015 first-round pick, looks like a valuable role player (whose 16-game absence due to a bone contusion in his left knee also factored into the Lakers' swoon), while Black, a waiver pickup two seasons ago, has provided good minutes off the bench. And 2016 second-round pick Zubac shows the promise to join this group.
Still, the Lakers' years in the lottery will prove worth it only if they can develop a star from their lottery picks. Randle and Russell haven't yet shown that potential on a consistent basis, though they could certainly get there. And while it's entirely premature to render a verdict on 2016 No. 2 overall pick Brandon Ingram, who's still 19, the early returns have not been encouraging.
Ingram's hot college shooting (he shot 41.0 percent on 3s in his lone year at Duke) hasn't held up; he's making just 29.7 percent from 3-point range, seventh worst among players with at least 100 attempts, according to Basketball-Reference.com. Worse yet, Ingram is also making less than 40 percent of his 2-point attempts (39.8 percent), which would make him the 25th player in NBA history to pull off that particular double.
The inaccurate shooting has outweighed the promise Ingram has shown as a playmaker and defender. His 2.8 wins below replacement level by my WARP metric are worst in the league, as is his minus-5.4 rating in ESPN's real plus-minus (RPM).
Naturally, that's partially because Ingram has played more than the typical 19-year-old rookie, but it's hard to find players who have started so poorly and become anything more than capable reserves.
Can the Lakers find a star?
So if the Lakers don't yet have a budding star on the roster, how can they find one? This year's draft might be their last, best chance. The Lakers' first-round pick is again top-three protected, and the upside of their swoon is reducing the chances they send the Philadelphia 76ers a lottery pick this year. (The pick is unprotected next year.)
Projections using ESPN's Basketball Power Index now have the Lakers landing a top-three pick 43.7 percent of the time. At the same time, there's only so much the Lakers can do to improve their chances further. Even if they finish with the league's worst record (a long shot with the Brooklyn Nets seven games behind in the win column), the Lakers would still lose their pick more than a third of the time (with a 64.3 percent chance of keeping it).
This year's draft seems even more important for the Lakers in the context of their past seven months. First, the Lakers spent lavishly in last summer's free-agency period in a misguided effort to win now. Their four-year, $64 million deal for Mozgov looked irrationally exuberant at the time, and already the Lakers have been much better with Mozgov on the bench this season.
Meanwhile, Luol Deng has predictably struggled at small forward after revitalizing his career as an undersized 4 last season with the Miami Heat. Because Deng is 31 and Mozgov 30, those contracts only figure to get worse as both players age.
Despite overpaying Deng and Mozgov, the Lakers could still clear $20-plus million in cap space this summer by waiving Black, whose $6.7 million salary is non-guaranteed. However, the addition of the designated player rule in the new NBA collective bargaining agreement makes it less likely the league's best players change teams in free agency. Unless the Lakers can persuade Blake Griffin to change locker rooms at Staples Center (and clear the remaining necessary space to get him), they're likely going to be bidding on second-tier free agents such as Gordon Hayward of the Utah Jazz for the foreseeable future.
Adding such a player in free agency can still help fill out a contending roster, but the Lakers aren't anywhere close to having one right now. And unless they keep this year's draft pick and land a superstar, they might not get there without more time in the lottery.
L.A. managed just 73 points against the Mavericks, taking them down to 6-22 since the start of December. Only the 4-22 Brooklyn Nets have been worse in that span.
With the excitement of the Lakers' 10-10 start now a distant memory, it's worth checking in on their young core to see how far away the Lakers are from competing in the Western Conference -- and whether this group will be intact when they get there.
Randle and Russell have slumped since strong starts
The Lakers' unexpectedly strong start was built primarily on offense. Even when they were .500, they ranked 27th in the league in defensive rating, according to NBA.com/Stats.
View media item 2311689
Since then, the Lakers' defense has only gotten worse while their offense has cratered. They've dropped to 25th in the NBA in offensive rating after ranking in the top half of the league through November. (That's a better indication of their decline than the raw numbers because leaguewide offensive performance has trended upward.)
In part, that can be blamed on injuries to starting guards D'Angelo Russell (currently out 1-2 weeks with a sprained MCL and a strained calf muscle) and Nick Young. According to NBA.com/Stats, the Lakers have managed less than a point per possession with injury replacements Jose Calderon and Marcelo Huertas on the court this season.
However, it also reflects recent lottery picks Russell and Julius Randle fading after strong starts. At the end of November, Randle's true shooting percentage was an impressive .572, a dramatic improvement from the .482 mark he posted in his first full season. Since then, it has dropped to .525. Meanwhile, Russell's true shooting percentage has dropped from .534 to .489, worse than his .507 mark as a rookie.
Randle's development is a fascinating case study. According to NBAwowy.com, when playing power forward alongside one of the team's traditional centers (Timofey Mozgov, Tarik Black and Ivica Zubac), he has shot about the same dismal percentage on 2-point attempts (43.6 percent) as he did in 2015-16 (43.5 percent). Randle's improvement, then, can largely be traced to playing in smaller lineups with better floor spacing. When he's the lone big man on the court, Randle shoots an incredible 65.8 percent on 2-point attempts.
Lineups with Randle as the lone big man have scored 113.1 points per 100 possessions, a mark bettered this season only by the Golden State Warriors (113.6). Unfortunately, the Lakers have given up 116.2 points per 100 possessions, as Randle doesn't have the ability to anchor a defense as a center. His improved playmaking (Randle has doubled his assist rate this season) is encouraging, but Randle can only become a plus contributor if he scores efficiently as a power forward.
The same is true for Russell, who has proved more capable of creating shots than hitting them thus far in his NBA career. Because Russell rarely gets to the basket off the dribble and doesn't finish well there (he's shooting only 57.1 percent inside 3 feet this season, per Basketball-Reference.com), that will likely require improving his average 3-point shooting (34.9 percent career).
Russell has actually shot well (43.0 percent) on catch-and-shoot 3s, according to SportVU tracking on NBA.com/Stats. It's pull-up 3s that have been an issue: Russell is making them at a 27.7 percent clip, and because most of those come when opponents go under screens, Russell is averaging just 0.65 points on pick-and-roll plays, second worst among players with at least 100 such attempts, via Synergy Sports charting.
Do the Lakers have a star on the roster?
After years of neglecting the draft and the back end of the roster, the Lakers have done a better job of adding supporting talent in recent seasons. Larry Nance Jr., a late 2015 first-round pick, looks like a valuable role player (whose 16-game absence due to a bone contusion in his left knee also factored into the Lakers' swoon), while Black, a waiver pickup two seasons ago, has provided good minutes off the bench. And 2016 second-round pick Zubac shows the promise to join this group.
Still, the Lakers' years in the lottery will prove worth it only if they can develop a star from their lottery picks. Randle and Russell haven't yet shown that potential on a consistent basis, though they could certainly get there. And while it's entirely premature to render a verdict on 2016 No. 2 overall pick Brandon Ingram, who's still 19, the early returns have not been encouraging.
Ingram's hot college shooting (he shot 41.0 percent on 3s in his lone year at Duke) hasn't held up; he's making just 29.7 percent from 3-point range, seventh worst among players with at least 100 attempts, according to Basketball-Reference.com. Worse yet, Ingram is also making less than 40 percent of his 2-point attempts (39.8 percent), which would make him the 25th player in NBA history to pull off that particular double.
The inaccurate shooting has outweighed the promise Ingram has shown as a playmaker and defender. His 2.8 wins below replacement level by my WARP metric are worst in the league, as is his minus-5.4 rating in ESPN's real plus-minus (RPM).
Naturally, that's partially because Ingram has played more than the typical 19-year-old rookie, but it's hard to find players who have started so poorly and become anything more than capable reserves.
Can the Lakers find a star?
So if the Lakers don't yet have a budding star on the roster, how can they find one? This year's draft might be their last, best chance. The Lakers' first-round pick is again top-three protected, and the upside of their swoon is reducing the chances they send the Philadelphia 76ers a lottery pick this year. (The pick is unprotected next year.)
Projections using ESPN's Basketball Power Index now have the Lakers landing a top-three pick 43.7 percent of the time. At the same time, there's only so much the Lakers can do to improve their chances further. Even if they finish with the league's worst record (a long shot with the Brooklyn Nets seven games behind in the win column), the Lakers would still lose their pick more than a third of the time (with a 64.3 percent chance of keeping it).
This year's draft seems even more important for the Lakers in the context of their past seven months. First, the Lakers spent lavishly in last summer's free-agency period in a misguided effort to win now. Their four-year, $64 million deal for Mozgov looked irrationally exuberant at the time, and already the Lakers have been much better with Mozgov on the bench this season.
Meanwhile, Luol Deng has predictably struggled at small forward after revitalizing his career as an undersized 4 last season with the Miami Heat. Because Deng is 31 and Mozgov 30, those contracts only figure to get worse as both players age.
Despite overpaying Deng and Mozgov, the Lakers could still clear $20-plus million in cap space this summer by waiving Black, whose $6.7 million salary is non-guaranteed. However, the addition of the designated player rule in the new NBA collective bargaining agreement makes it less likely the league's best players change teams in free agency. Unless the Lakers can persuade Blake Griffin to change locker rooms at Staples Center (and clear the remaining necessary space to get him), they're likely going to be bidding on second-tier free agents such as Gordon Hayward of the Utah Jazz for the foreseeable future.
Adding such a player in free agency can still help fill out a contending roster, but the Lakers aren't anywhere close to having one right now. And unless they keep this year's draft pick and land a superstar, they might not get there without more time in the lottery.
- Sep 5, 2010
- 92,865
- 129,184
Russell and Ingram selected to the Rising Stars Challenge.
I wish Nance didn't get hurt.
No way Kaminsky or Chriss would've made it if Nance was healthy.
I wish Nance didn't get hurt.
No way Kaminsky or Chriss would've made it if Nance was healthy.
whiplashtw03
Banned
- Oct 16, 2015
- 4,934
- 2,215
For the first time this season, BOTH Jeannie and Jim Buss will be attending the road trip with the team. This strongly suggests certain players on the roster are up for serious evaluation and are on the trade block.
Hmmm........
Lakers don't ever want to give the impression they're in tank mode. At the end of the day, it's still all about making moves to improve the roster in order to build a playoff contender SOONER rather than later.
My money says Jeannie and Jim aren't about tanking and aren't about stockpiling assets and HOPING these young assets turn out to be superstars. Some of these assets will be dealt.
We are NOT the Golden State Warriors.
Julius ain't Draymond and won't ever be.
Jordan will NEVER be Klay
And DLo sure as hell won't ever be nothing close to Steph.
The best we can hope for is for Ingram to turn into a poor man's KD.
Lakers showing all the signs we are going to pull off a trade. And I doubt it's a trade where we simply dump two of our best scorers (Young, Lou) for nothing just so we acquire scrubs and improve our tank position.
Hmmm........
Lakers don't ever want to give the impression they're in tank mode. At the end of the day, it's still all about making moves to improve the roster in order to build a playoff contender SOONER rather than later.
My money says Jeannie and Jim aren't about tanking and aren't about stockpiling assets and HOPING these young assets turn out to be superstars. Some of these assets will be dealt.
We are NOT the Golden State Warriors.
Julius ain't Draymond and won't ever be.
Jordan will NEVER be Klay
And DLo sure as hell won't ever be nothing close to Steph.
The best we can hope for is for Ingram to turn into a poor man's KD.
Lakers showing all the signs we are going to pull off a trade. And I doubt it's a trade where we simply dump two of our best scorers (Young, Lou) for nothing just so we acquire scrubs and improve our tank position.
MVP
Supporter
- Feb 28, 2008
- 83,040
- 85,631
Who are your barbershop sources with insight on the Buss family?
whiplashtw03
Banned
- Oct 16, 2015
- 4,934
- 2,215
Lol...wait til the game starts tonight and you'll see
MVP
Supporter
- Feb 28, 2008
- 83,040
- 85,631
What exactly will I be looking for as we get washed in Portland? Camera shots of Jeanie and Jim?
whiplashtw03
Banned
- Oct 16, 2015
- 4,934
- 2,215
ESPN is televising the game and their crew might give some speculation about Jeannie and Jim sitting together at the game and what that might implicate.
- May 17, 2007
- 25,150
- 23,975
Pelton was spot on with his analysis of Russell, Randle & Ingram (as usual). Things don't look good right now but all it takes is 1 player to make the leap.
MVP
Supporter
- Feb 28, 2008
- 83,040
- 85,631
1 isn't going to do it, especially in the West.
- Jan 4, 2012
- 11,410
- 12,654
- Nov 1, 2011
- 2,433
- 1,128
If true, this actually could be significant.
- Jan 5, 2011
- 67,793
- 78,979
whats been the longest stretch of mediocrity to trash that this team has gone through so far? Are we in it? The Great Depression?
Were the 90s still worse, in terms of longevity, til we got kobe and shaq? Were they still making the playoffs? Still competitive? I was in grade school lol
Were the 90s still worse, in terms of longevity, til we got kobe and shaq? Were they still making the playoffs? Still competitive? I was in grade school lol
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whiplashtw03
Banned
- Oct 16, 2015
- 4,934
- 2,215
Oh best believe, Kupchak, Jim, and Jeannie are all on this trip.
- Feb 5, 2013
- 39,384
- 40,874
unlikely, hoping for a pau/kwame deal netting us something good. ....sigh
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MVP
Supporter
- Feb 28, 2008
- 83,040
- 85,631
Went to the Finals in 91' Magic retired cause of the package. 96' we got Shaq. 12-17 after this season. With no end in immediate sight. We've never experienced being consistently THIS bad since the Buss family took over.
- Feb 5, 2013
- 39,384
- 40,874
