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Yep numbers are so incredibly made up. But sure let’s make long term policy and economic decisions on them.
 
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tay1 said:
California Coronavirus Update

As of now, there are 1037 positive cases with 14 deaths. I expected a spike as tests become more available. Now it’s just to see where the peak will be and how high the positive cases go
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They were saying Cali has processed something like 90k tests but they have another 50k still waiting to be processed.

That's not even counting all the people who haven't been swabbed yet.

af1 1982 said:
This is what I’ve been trying to say. The daily numbers mean next to nothing because there’s no baseline to compare to. And this thing is a moving target with people getting better and people getting newly infected.

No idea how the government can use the data to determine whether or not to start opening things again. It will literally be a guess at that point
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True. It requires making some assumptions and using some models. You try to estimate the fraction of infections that require hospitalization and the fraction of those that require a ventilator and the fraction of those that lead to death. If you get fancy you incorporate the demographics of the population and the lags in each step, etc.

I take everything with a grain of salt but an easy way to look at things is the number of days it took to double. 3-4 days is largely consistent with the unmitigated spread of the virus, >5 days means interventions are helping (but takes 2 weeks to see an effect on the numbers). But again, many factors go into it, the most obvious being that rapid expansion in testing capabilities will artificially increase the numbers rapidly.
 
walkingBred said:
Since it was tested under laboratory conditions, does that mean it only remains in the air indoors? I would think the virus wouldn't be stable outdoors, but does anyone know or have a source that talks about the virus in outdoor air?
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Hmm. I'd assume it's more stable in indoor air than outdoor air. I have no proof of that though.

I'd still like to see proof that it can even get airborne outside of the medical setting.
 
For those saying we shouldn't use the numbers... well, the problem is, if we wait for things to get bad, it's actually 10-50x worse than what we're currently seeing, because for every patient in the ICU now, there will be 10-50 patients who are sitting at home already infected and in 2 weeks will end up in the ICU.

So as a governor or public health official, you are screwed if you just wait for things to get bad.

Conversely, the effects of lockdowns won't be seen for 2-3 weeks for similar reasons, which is why we have to pad the lockdown times to make sure we actually see a decline in the numbers before opening things back up.

Don't worry, the people who are studying these things are aware of all the issues.
 
whywesteppin said:
For those saying we shouldn't use the numbers... well, the problem is, if we wait for things to get bad, it's actually 10-50x worse than what we're currently seeing, because for every patient in the ICU now, there will be 10-50 patients who are sitting at home already infected and in 2 weeks will end up in the ICU.

So as a governor or public health official, you are screwed if you just wait for things to get bad.

Conversely, the effects of lockdowns won't be seen for 2-3 weeks for similar reasons, which is why we have to pad the lockdown times to make sure we actually see a decline in the numbers before opening things back up.

Don't worry, the people who are studying these things are aware of all the issues.
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I agree. Numbers may tell an incomplete story, but it's all they got and they got to act based on what they do know instead of worrying about what they don't know.
 
whywesteppin said:
For those saying we shouldn't use the numbers... well, the problem is, if we wait for things to get bad, it's actually 10-50x worse than what we're currently seeing, because for every patient in the ICU now, there will be 10-50 patients who are sitting at home already infected and in 2 weeks will end up in the ICU.

So as a governor or public health official, you are screwed if you just wait for things to get bad.

Conversely, the effects of lockdowns won't be seen for 2-3 weeks for similar reasons, which is why we have to pad the lockdown times to make sure we actually see a decline in the numbers before opening things back up.

Don't worry, the people who are studying these things are aware of all the issues.
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Which was going to be my next point. You bring up very good points about the assumptions that are being taken (almost every single statistical model requires some sort of assumptions). They are usually worst case scenario so that’s why a lot of these predictions that we’ve seen regarding the numbers most likely won’t be true. At least in my opinion
 
Its fair to be skeptical of numbers; to think about the politics of numbers and how numbers can be used towards various ends.

But what’s your investment in the skepticism? And to what ends? If the numbers are being used to mobilize people towards greater concern for others then isn’t that a good thing? If the exponential increase in cases since March is being used to get more people to practice social distancing then isn’t that a good thing?

Sure, there are a ton of assumptions at work. But death is not an abstraction. The loss of life is not an abstraction. Isn’t that all that needs to be said?
 
af1 1982 said:
Which was going to be my next point. You bring up very good points about the assumptions that are being taken (almost every single statistical model requires some sort of assumptions). They are usually worst case scenario so that’s why a lot of these predictions that we’ve seen regarding the numbers most likely won’t be true. At least in my opinion
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I agree. And it gets tricky. Do you make decisions based on the average predictions from these models? Or do you use the worst case scenario?

We also don't have much of a template. The numbers from China helped, but who knows how much they made up. The numbers from S Korea are ok, but they controlled things rapidly. We're beyond that point.

Italy is a good model to see how things will go, but they're still going through the worst of it. If anything, Seattle is the best case study right now.
 
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The unemployment is crazy to me. What do they expect broke people to do? Mf's got no choice but to steal food. I wouldn't be surprised if straight up anarchy breaks out by this time next month. Looting grocery stores and such.
 
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