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Egypt REVOLUTION! Military Coup = Succuessful. U.S. paid military now in power.
[h1][/h1]
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It does not make sense to me that the U.S. would be behind this revolt. Mubarak is one of their strongest allies in the Middle East. He continued Sadat's policies of alligning with the West and Israel and gets funded and supported by the U.S. government. This uprising is also very worrisome for Israel. Unless the U.S. has a hand in the transitioned government in making sure it gets replaced by a Western-backed leader, then that would make it easier for them. But, an uprising like this is a destabilizing factor in the interests of the U.S. in that region and it brings extreme high levels of uncertainty.
This uprising was unprecedented and it came out of nowhere and gained momentum due to the inspiration of the Tunisian uprising against Ben Ali's government which was also unpredicted. But, Egypt always had a popular underground social movement. All it needed was to mobilize the population on a larger scale and gain momentum, and when the people of Egypt saw what happened in Tunisia, that's all it took to get the ball rolling.
This uprising was unprecedented and it came out of nowhere and gained momentum due to the inspiration of the Tunisian uprising against Ben Ali's government which was also unpredicted. But, Egypt always had a popular underground social movement. All it needed was to mobilize the population on a larger scale and gain momentum, and when the people of Egypt saw what happened in Tunisia, that's all it took to get the ball rolling.
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@Carlos
Again, I'm going to refrain from celebrating any of these changes until I see what actually replaces it. Sure, it was a rapidly developing and highly covered series of protests, but we have no guarantee yet that the changes will be beyond skin deep. As previously mentioned, most likely replacements including elbaradei will not have the balls to put Egyptian policy (especially foreign) on the proper path. I don't know how legitimate the claims the US was behind this are (see posts in this thread) but if this is true, it only further legitimizes my concerns that this is no "real" change at all. I was born in Egypt myself, so I give massive props to the protesters and all but I remain very skeptical. As far as the Cairo population/protesters, the official numbers might be around 16-18 but having been to Egypt dozens of times, I know for a fact there is a massive unregistered population as well as poor migrant workers that "live" in rural areas, but actually spend their time working/looking for work in Cairo; so I believe the official numbers are underreported. As far as the number of protesters, the ~20k figure might be from the initial day or two, I'm sure now that people see Mubarak showing signs of weakness thousands more will join in. My point was that relative to the population, the outpour was not exactly overwhelming at first. For example, my relatives in Heliopolis (on Friday) reported to me that there were barely any people on the streets in that city (class schism ?)
You forget Israel isn't going anywhere
Iran already is the new superpower in the Middle East. The last step in the process would be to acquire nuclear arms capacity and this isinevitable. Look at the wikipedia cables. Iran has not only Israel, but it's own Arab neighbors shook to the point of begging the US to take military action. So much so that Saudi Arabia approved the Israeli Air Force to use its airspace to bomb Iran!
The Iraq war was one of the best things to happen to the country in decades, completing the Shia crescent, and giving the Iranians the gift of being able to smuggle weapons on two bordering fronts (Iraq + Afghanistan) to kill Americans while keeping their hands clean publicly. The '06 Hezbollah proxy conflictembarrassedIsraeli ground forces and even further strengthened Iran. With Ben Ali down, Egypt on the verge of collapse (assuming it wasn't staged) Israel loses another puppet ally in the region. It's clear that with all these events, Iran is continuously getting stronger and becoming a check to Israeli power (a good thing, but not that Iran in itself is a good country). Which goes back to my first post questioning what role Iran will play in Egypt. We already know they fund the MB and other elements that aid Gaza (despite the Shia/Sunni rift) in attempts at weakening Mubarak. If you ask me, a strong voice like Iran is necessary to put Egypt on the proper path because it appears to be the only country in the region with a set of balls.
Anyway:
Again, I'm going to refrain from celebrating any of these changes until I see what actually replaces it. Sure, it was a rapidly developing and highly covered series of protests, but we have no guarantee yet that the changes will be beyond skin deep. As previously mentioned, most likely replacements including elbaradei will not have the balls to put Egyptian policy (especially foreign) on the proper path. I don't know how legitimate the claims the US was behind this are (see posts in this thread) but if this is true, it only further legitimizes my concerns that this is no "real" change at all. I was born in Egypt myself, so I give massive props to the protesters and all but I remain very skeptical. As far as the Cairo population/protesters, the official numbers might be around 16-18 but having been to Egypt dozens of times, I know for a fact there is a massive unregistered population as well as poor migrant workers that "live" in rural areas, but actually spend their time working/looking for work in Cairo; so I believe the official numbers are underreported. As far as the number of protesters, the ~20k figure might be from the initial day or two, I'm sure now that people see Mubarak showing signs of weakness thousands more will join in. My point was that relative to the population, the outpour was not exactly overwhelming at first. For example, my relatives in Heliopolis (on Friday) reported to me that there were barely any people on the streets in that city (class schism ?)
You forget Israel isn't going anywhere
Iran already is the new superpower in the Middle East. The last step in the process would be to acquire nuclear arms capacity and this isinevitable. Look at the wikipedia cables. Iran has not only Israel, but it's own Arab neighbors shook to the point of begging the US to take military action. So much so that Saudi Arabia approved the Israeli Air Force to use its airspace to bomb Iran!
Anyway:
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This ain't no damn Revolution, this is a fraud.
conspiracy brother... Im with you... on this one
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Stuff this will never happen in the United States. People in this country are too comfortable with their own lives to give a @$!@ about anyone else. The sheep in this country outnumber the truly educated ones 20-1.
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Egypt is not comparable to the US, period. Maybe youll see "things like this" in the US once democracy has been brushed aside for decades and overcome with corruption to the point where people are dying on the streets for food.
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wow I never knew how much NTers talked out of their !%# until this post. Guys I am Egyptian, I go twice or so every year. I have friends family over there.
THIS IS A REVOLUTION. Just becuase people have been silent for 30 years you think they should always be that way? This not a conspiracy i have very close friends on the floor with the people since jan 25. Its real.
THIS IS A REVOLUTION. Just becuase people have been silent for 30 years you think they should always be that way? This not a conspiracy i have very close friends on the floor with the people since jan 25. Its real.
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Couldn't the US being involved be an attempt to salvage relations with the rest of the Middle East? Take down one ally, but make a few others.
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Your nationality ain't got nothing to do with it. I have many friends in Egypt too, I have been to Cairo twice. It doesn't influence my opinion in any way. Of course the people are genuinely angry. I have witnessed the living conditions there and it is no secret that the people are pissed. This was a powder keg waiting to explode. But you have to consider that this anger can be exploited and re-directed towards a certain goal or agenda to benefit a third party. You gotta ask...who is leading this movement, how did it start etc. The duly advent of that El Baradei dude is ....well here:
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I wish the US would show support for the Egyptians revolution.
It would be a HUGE step in repairing Americas image with Muslims from all over.
Unfortunately it won't happen. The groundbreaking speech by Obama in Cairo a few years ago was really just lip service.
It would be a HUGE step in repairing Americas image with Muslims from all over.
Unfortunately it won't happen. The groundbreaking speech by Obama in Cairo a few years ago was really just lip service.
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I'm really not sure where you see El-Baradei proclaiming himself the leader of the protests. He wasn't even in the country when they started, and every time I've seen him speak he's mentioned how it was the Egyptian people who started this and how the Egyptian people will not allow things to go back to the way they were. If anything, he's attempting to start a campaign for the Presidency early to counter act the Muslim Brotherhood, who are no doubt salivating at the power vacuum that could be created if Mubarak does in fact do the right thing and steps down.
A lot of you guys don't know what you're talking about and, as usual, run straight to a conspiracy theory to explain everything. It's hilarious really.
Whats even better is that Mubarak would have been able to carry out any agenda the United States or the West wanted him to BECAUSE he was a dictator. He had nothing to worry about as long as the mass of the country had food on the table and could feed their families. Bringing him down makes no sense whatsoever, because instead of having a stable, dictatorial regime in place that can do what it pleases now we'll have (hopefully, in time) a functioning Democracy that we have no control over really.
JRS: It's a bit of a too little, too late scenario. If we were going to actually care about the suffering of the Egyptian people, we shouldn't have given Mubarak the means to stay in power for such a ridiculous amount of time. Also, the majority of our allies in the region are dictators, so we'd POSSIBLY, by a long shot, make amends with the Egyptian people, but we'd have Saudi Arabia and other countries worried about their relationships with us because they might be next.
A lot of you guys don't know what you're talking about and, as usual, run straight to a conspiracy theory to explain everything. It's hilarious really.
Whats even better is that Mubarak would have been able to carry out any agenda the United States or the West wanted him to BECAUSE he was a dictator. He had nothing to worry about as long as the mass of the country had food on the table and could feed their families. Bringing him down makes no sense whatsoever, because instead of having a stable, dictatorial regime in place that can do what it pleases now we'll have (hopefully, in time) a functioning Democracy that we have no control over really.
JRS: It's a bit of a too little, too late scenario. If we were going to actually care about the suffering of the Egyptian people, we shouldn't have given Mubarak the means to stay in power for such a ridiculous amount of time. Also, the majority of our allies in the region are dictators, so we'd POSSIBLY, by a long shot, make amends with the Egyptian people, but we'd have Saudi Arabia and other countries worried about their relationships with us because they might be next.
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But if reports coming out are saying the US might be involved, wouldn't that show that Obama's speech may have been genuine? I've got a good feeling about this actually, this could be Obama's way of not being a one term worthless president.
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That's being orchestrated by the U.S.?
That ain't a revolution.
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It's really disappointing too, this place has so many morons it becomes unbearable at times
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Originally Posted by TeamJordan79
Kirghistan, Ukraine, Georgia, Tunisia, the entire Central American region, Thailand etc.
I still am not buying into that ONE reported Wikileaks and conspiracy.
This was unprecedented and it gained momemtum due to the influence of the Tunisian uprising. The underground social movement in Egypt has been going on for decades. All it needed was a lift and for the population on a larger scale to be mobilized and it sparked it all. This is the same as it happened in Europe in the 80s during the fall of the iron curtain and with uprisings popping up due to a domino effect. Why is it surprising to some that it gained such momentum in such a small amount of time? For those asking why a revolution now, well for how long do you expect people to be silenced? This is NOT the first revolution in Egypt either. How many years did it take them to take down the Egyptian royal monarchy until the 1952 revolution which was led by the army and backed by the people?
The Egyptian revolt even surprised the leaders of Mubarak's opposition who then joined and participated in the protests. They did not expect these protests to take on a large scale like we have seen in the past couple of days. This is definitely a people's revolution. They were spontaneous protests fed by public anger, disenchanted youth, and the Tunisian example. You add that with the role of Twitter and Facebook, as well as the media that showed vigorously what happened in Tunisia and it gave Egyptians and other Arabs hope that if they get together united and stand up, they can overcome or at least defy the power of their regime and its security forces.
Someone please tell me what the U.S. has to gain from Mubarak gone? If they had anything to substantial to gain from this, I would maybe buy it. Did you not hear Biden claim that he does not see Mubarak as a dictator? Did you not hear how Obama did not demand for Mubarak to step down but told him to do reforms? Mubarak has been complacent in many of the U.S. and Israel iforeign policies, which is why he gets billions in U.S. aid.
It is a HUGE destabilizing factor. Even if they put a Western backed leader after Mubarak, you think that this leader would be as strong or powerful as Mubarak was with his influence in the region ruling for 30 years? This messes up the axis of allies in the region and in return it will strengthen Iran and other anti-Western factions in the region. Israel has a lot to lose from Mubarak being gone.
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I think it's way too early to say this is orchestrated by the US. The US may have wanted to save face and introduce more "democratic" reform while still holding the leash knowing that Mubarak was going to be dead soon. That said, the evidence from the wikileaks cables is pretty weak in terms of how much "support" was given to the so-called reformers, and how much power these so-called reformers had. That said, once the protests truly picked up to the level they are at now, there is no way to say the US is in control behind the crowds and dictating exactly what changes are to come about. No one really knows this. In 5-10 years once we have the benefit of clear hindsight we might be able to analyze whether the changes that came about benefited the US/Israel and how large of a role they played, but right now, it's plain stupid to claim this is some US led propaganda faux revolt. There is also plenty of contradictory evidence, given that the US cut aid to democratic groups just recently this past April, and these revolts are worrying another key US ally: Saudi Arabia.
I know I keep repeating this but, Iran really needs to step in here. If we see Iran benefiting we know beyond a shadow of a doubt the US's plans (assuming this was staged) have completely and utterly backfired
I know I keep repeating this but, Iran really needs to step in here. If we see Iran benefiting we know beyond a shadow of a doubt the US's plans (assuming this was staged) have completely and utterly backfired
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The US may not have created this uprising but you can be damn sure we'll have a hand in shaping it.
Who started it doesn't really matter now. What matters is what will come of it. The US will not let a neutral government come power let alone a potentially anti US government. The Egyptian Army knows where there it's bread and butter comes from; US aid and the US defense industry. Without the Egyptian military, the protesters are toast.
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Without question. It'll be behind the scenes, but I'm sure our government understands the dangers of the Muslim Brotherhood coming to power. Unless they're truly going to respect a democratic government that takes shape. Thats the main worry really. If there are free elections and they come to power, what would prevent them from saying they are not leaving when they are voted out. It could lead to even larger problems in the future.
Also, a lot of you are mentioning that Saudi Arabia and other Gulf States have a lot to worry about. Honestly, they don't. They have the money to basically buy their population off and keep them in check.
Countries like Jordan and Syria? They should worry. Saudi Arabia and Kuwait? Not so much.
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Someone please tell me what the U.S. has to gain from Mubarak gone? If they had anything to substantial to gain from this, I would maybe buy it. Did you not hear Biden claim that he does not see Mubarak as a dictator? Did you not hear how Obama did not demand for Mubarak to step down but told him to do reforms? Mubarak has been complacent in many of the U.S. and Israel iforeign policies, which is why he gets billions in U.S. aid.
How about speeding up elections and propping up a puppet?
How would those two stooges look calling Mubarak a dictator while sending him $1.3 Billion in aid? How do you think that would fly with the public?
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Yes, unfortunately, the U.S. and Israel will have a strong hand in shaping this. They will not accept the regime unless it is a Western backed ally. But my point is that even with this new backed Western ally, it weakens their position in the region from Egypt's side because during the transition, the power, stronghold, and influence Mubarak had will have to be re-shaped to adapt to this new dynamic and who knows how long that will take.
The U.S. already knew that Mubarak's days were numbered and probably were prepared for his son to take over, but I do not think they expected or predicted this at all.
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How about speeding up elections and propping up a puppet?
How would those two stooges look calling Mubarak a dictator while sending him $1.3 Billion in aid? How do you think that would fly with the public?
Mubarak was the puppet we propped up. Your argument makes no sense.
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How about speeding up elections and propping up a puppet?
How would those two stooges look calling Mubarak a dictator while sending him $1.3 Billion in aid? How do you think that would fly with the public?
Mubarak's days were already numbered. The next puppet was going to be his son who already is aligned and would be Western backed ally too. So, what is the point of bringing in another puppet that would lead to uncertainties when they already have a stronghold of a puppet with a cemented agenda? What you are saying makes no sense.
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Anything that can weaken Israel or strengthen Iran worries the Saudis. Not to say a revolution will occur there tomorrow, but losing Mubarak (if not replaced by another puppet) means losing a key ally.
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Originally Posted by tkthafm
Anything that can weaken Israel or strengthen Iran worries the Saudis. Not to say a revolution will occur there tomorrow, but losing Mubarak (if not replaced by another puppet) means losing a key ally.
@ the reaction http://www.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/meast/01/29/egypt.middle.east.reaction/index.html?hpt=T2
It's possible, I'm just referring to the people who seem to think the "domino theory" that seems to be playing out here applies to Saudi Arabia and other oil states. Thats a whole different dynamic.
