Déjà Vu in Chicago, Plus a Trip Through the NBA's Emergency Room
By Zach Lowe on November 25, 2013 10:00 AM ET
http://www.grantland.com/blog/the-t...o-plus-a-trip-through-the-nbas-emergency-room
Some thoughts after a very depressing weekend of NBA basketball has left the league feeling unusually unsettled for this time of season, with scads of injuries and so many (Eastern Conference) teams with high internal expectations floundering horribly:
Derrick Rose's knee injury is yet another reminder, as if we needed one after last season, that all the VERY LOUD SHOUTING about "ringzzzzz" obscures just how much luck and health-related fortune goes into winning even a single championship. How many rings would Michael Jordan own if Scottie Pippen had developed chronic knee issues? Bill Russell went down midway through the 1958 Finals, which the Celtics lost, and injuries both major and minor have tipped the balance of every postseason since. We would do well to remember season-altering issues to contender centerpieces (Russell, Wilt Chamberlain, Willis Reed, Jerry West, Kevin Garnett, Oscar Robertson, Dave DeBusschere, Russell Westbrook, Andrew Bynum, Isiah Thomas, etc.) and sub-stars (Jameer Nelson, Sam Cassell, Lakers-era Karl Malone, Gus Johnson, and on, and on) the next time someone screams about how pathetic and "unclutch" it is that Player X hasn't won a ring. Health plays a giant role in deciding the champion — in literally every season.
For all the attention on the wonky basketball mysteries SportVU tracking cameras might solve, the real holy grail is combining that technology with others that might lead to some tiny slice of enlightenment on injury prediction and prevention. It will never be an exact science — not in our lifetimes, anyway. But any team that learns some small truth about injuries will have gained a valuable edge.
The Bulls find themselves in a very tricky situation. This is a taxed-out team, built around Rose, constructed to win the title now. The timetable for Rose's recovery is a major unknown, and it prevents the Bulls from moving forward with any kind of certainty. Rose tore the medial portion of his meniscus, the piece of cartilage that runs along the inside of a player's knee. That is a small bit of good news. A 2011 study published in the American Journal of Sports Medicine found NBA players were disproportionately likely to tear the lateral meniscus, the portion of cartilage that does a bit more athletic work and carries a longer recovery time.
Rose has avoided that, at least. The Bulls will likely choose to mend the torn portion of Rose's meniscus if they can, though the medial side has weaker blood flow that can make it more challenging to pull off a full stitching, according to several doctors and trainers. A full mending carries a recovery time that can last between three and four months, and often even longer; Westbrook took nearly six months to fully recover from his meniscus tear, and that was before learning he needed a second clean-up operation before this season. Snipping out the damaged portion of the meniscus allows for much quicker recovery, but snipping out too much of it can leave the player vulnerable to long-term bone-on-bone issues.
The specifics of any recovery time are very hard to predict, and the Bulls won't know some of the key variables — the location and severity of the tear, for instance — until they cut into Rose's knee on Monday.
But the three-to-four-month timetable puts Rose right at the point where it might be possible for him to rejoin Chicago toward the end of the regular season and gear up for the playoffs.
And the Bulls will make the playoffs if they wish to do so. The East is a giant pile of flaming basketball dung after Indiana, Miami, Atlanta, and Chicago, and the Bulls proved last season that Tom Thibodeau's defense and some canny ball movement is enough to keep them around .500. And, hell, .500 could get you a damn trophy in the Eastern Conference this season.
It's true that this Chicago team, with Mike Dunleavy and Mike James/Marquis Teague in the places of Nate Robinson and Marco Belinelli, is comparatively lacking in ball handlers. That hurts. James has played nine minutes all season, Dunleavy is mostly a spot-up guy with a bit of one-dribble-and-pass panache, and Teague hasn't resembled an NBA player in his limited time. (He belongs in the D-League, but I'm not sure the Bulls are familiar with the D-League. Just kidding — they are, I swear! But they haven't acted as such.) Deng gets by with crafty movement that generates a teensy bit of separation, and Jimmy Butler hasn't grasped a larger share of the offense to date. And Butler's hurt for now, anyway, leaving Kirk Hinrich far too much responsibility.
Chicago is nearly $8 million over the tax line; adding even one minimum-salaried player to what is already a bare-bones 13-man roster is a very expensive proposition for a team that never even paid a dollar in tax until last season.
But the Bulls are an obvious playoff team, regardless. The question is whether they should maintain this roster in hopes of coalescing late in the season upon Rose's return, or cut bait and begin repurposing the team for its next era — while potentially cutting this season's tax bill in the process.
That begins, and might well end, with Deng's $14 million expiring contract. The Bulls tabled extension talks with Deng before the season, but they've always maintained privately that they'd like to re-sign him as a long-term piece. Thibodeau adores him, almost to the point of physical destruction.
But he's nearly 29, seeking an eight-figure annual salary, with a weird injury history and minute totals in the rearview that make you wince just looking at them. Any team would be justified in feeling queasy about committing four years of big salary to Deng.
Keeping Deng on the books would also kill the (very tenuous) possibility of Chicago carving out max-level/LeBron-level cap space this summer, even if they were to use the amnesty provision on the final season of Carlos Boozer's massive contract. If the Bulls think this era is basically dead, they'd be wise to test the trade market for Deng rather than let him walk for nothing.
The market for expiring contracts has been cool in recent seasons, as teams have learned to properly value first-round picks over a few months of contract-year production from a trade piece. But Deng is a well-regarded Swiss army knife of a player who doesn't require touches and could fit within any system. Chicago might be able to pry a late first-round pick from some borderline contender in exchange for Deng — the desperate Wizards just coughed up a potential lottery pick for Marcin "the towel ripper" Gortat — but even if they can't, the Bulls might net some combination of savings and second-round picks. Potential Deng suitors could include:
Bottom line: Chicago is toast as a contender without Rose, and if the Bulls conclude that the odds are against Rose returning to anything like peak form this season, they should begin exploring trades now. The foundation for the next Bulls team is already here, in Rose, Noah, Butler, the overseas star Nikola Mirotic, and an extra first-round pick the Bobcats still owe Chicago for (gulp) Tyrus Thomas. Butler can guard most small forwards already; it would be worthwhile to test the market for both Deng and Gibson.
But the Bulls aren't there yet, and they won't be until they get the specifics on Rose. Please be well, Derrick.
besides US they have the best shot to put the Heat out
