Debate over No. 1 pick continues
The debate over the No. 1 pick in the 2014 NBA draft got even more complicated last weekend.
In something of a surprise move, all three of the top candidates for the No. 1 pick worked out in Southern California. Kansas' Joel Embiid and Duke's Jabari Parker worked out in Santa Monica in front of more than 100 NBA scouts and executives on Friday. On Sunday, Kansas' Andrew Wiggins worked out privately for me in Santa Barbara with trainer Drew Hanlen.
All three workouts were impressive, muddying the waters even further over whom the Cleveland Cavaliers should select with the first pick in the draft.
Workouts themselves are only a sliver of a much larger draft process. A player's performance on the court in real games obviously carries more weight. However, the workouts do matter. Teams look at what shape the players are in, how hard they go and whether they have worked on any of their deficiencies since the season ended.
They especially become important when teams are struggling to decide between players. They have, in the past, been the tiebreakers in close calls. In a draft that has three, maybe four, players worthy of the top pick, they are going to matter.
Here's what I learned in the workouts this weekend for all three players.
Consistency is key for Wiggins
Wiggins did not disappoint in the private workout I saw of him on Sunday. He's in the best shape of the three prospects right now and showed off terrific athleticism, and improved shooting and ballhandling mechanics in the 45-minute workout with Hanlen. (He's been working with Hanlen for just under a month, as well as with the folks at P3 in Santa Barbara.)
Hanlen has been working with Wiggins on correcting several weaknesses that have been holding back his game. They have tweaked Wiggins' jump shot, primarily by working with him on his follow-through, to get a more consistent jumper from both midrange and from behind the 3-point line. While Wiggins was a solid shooter this season for Kansas (34 percent from 3), everyone knows he needs to get better to open up the floor. That process already began in the second half of the season. Once Kansas began Big 12 play, Wiggins' 3-point shooting improved. While there's still more work to do, Wiggins showed off a more consistent jumper from everywhere on the floor in the workout I saw. He was particularly good from each corner, shooting 14-for-16 on 3s he took there.
Wiggins has also been working on his ballhandling. While Wiggins has a solid handle, he plays very upright which gives him an unusually high dribble that's easy to pick off. Hanlen and the folks at P3 have been working on his hip flexibility to get him playing lower to the ground. At his size (he measured 6-foot-8.75 in shoes, with a 7-foot wingspan and an 8-foot-11 standing reach at P3), he's going to have to get lower to the floor to be able to attack the basket the way he did for KU during the second half of the season. The training seems to be taking, as Wiggins was playing much less upright in the workouts here, improving his quickness and explosiveness on both ends of the court.
Finally, Hanlen has been doing a lot of game film breakdown with Wiggins, trying to add some NBA moves to his already elite athletic talent. Hanlen has been showing Wiggins video of Michael Jordan, Kobe Bryant, Tracy McGrady and Paul George and then taking several signature moves of each player and working with Wiggins on building those into his game. Wiggins looked especially lethal on a new step-back move he's been working on. He's so quick and so long, he gets incredible separation from his defender on the move. It will be close to impossible to guard if he can get it down.
"I normally never pull Jordan or Kobe video for players because, truthfully, they just can't do what Jordan or Kobe could do athletically," Hanlen said. "Wiggins is the first player I've trained who has that capability, athletically, to do some of the things those two have done. It's just a learning process for him now. He's gotten by on his athleticism his whole life. Now it's about really learning what makes players like that special from a skills standpoint and a mentality standpoint. He was hesitant at Kansas and as he improves his skills, I'm starting to see him develop confidence and a killer mentality that will be necessary at the next level. He's been like a sponge. The improvement over the past few weeks has been incredible. I think in a few more weeks he's going to blow people away in workouts."
Will Wiggins impress the Cavaliers enough for a No. 1 selection?
On the night of the draft lottery, a Cavs source told me that while Parker had been at the top of their board all year and that they are in love with Embiid's potential and long-term fit, he felt that at the end of the day Wiggins would be the Cavs' guy. Wiggins offers the Cavs both the upside of Embiid plus some of the NBA readiness of Parker. While Parker might be better offensively right now, Wiggins' defensive abilities are NBA-ready, and if the Cavs are going to make the jump to the playoffs next season, the improvement will primarily have to come on the defensive end.
"I think he has the most star potential of anyone in the draft," one veteran NBA scout told me on Friday, "and I think he goes and helps a team right away. He'll get on the floor for significant minutes right away because he can defend multiple positions. And when his offense catches up to his defense, I just don't see any way that this kid can fail. How do you pass on that if you are Cleveland? It's really the best of both worlds."
But not everyone agrees, and this is where things get confusing. There's a lot of misinformation floating around right now. Since putting up my mock draft, I've heard conflicting reports from sources outside the Cavs about Wiggins. One good source told me that the Cavs have already told Wiggins' camp he's the front-runner. However, another trusted source with close access to the Cavs' front office told me that he believes that Wiggins isn't even in the discussion in Cleveland -- that it's already been narrowed down to Embiid or Parker.
And if Wiggins doesn't go No. 1? I don't think he's in the top two on the Milwaukee Bucks' board right now, which means he would fall to the Philadelphia 76ers -- a team that has had Wiggins as its top target all season.
Embiid may have the ultimate say
No one was a bigger attraction than Embiid this weekend. Teams haven't seen him play since he injured his back late in his freshman season. Embiid's decision to skip the combine caused a fair amount of consternation among NBA teams. Without seeing him in the athletic testing, and without a full physical from NBA doctors, the paranoia over Embiid's health reached a fever pitch in Chicago last weekend.
Embiid went a long way toward easing those doubts and reasserting himself as a legit contender, maybe even the favorite, to be the top pick in the draft.
Embiid went through a roughly 30-minute workout alongside former NBA center Will Perdue. While it was clear that Embiid was still working himself into shape after nearly eight weeks of rest for his back (he got very winded about 15 minutes into the workout and started to struggle to finish his dunks and shots), he still looked quick and made the 10-foot basket look like a Nerf hoop.
He was dunking everything, showing off his quickness in the paint and his impressive shooting touch with a series of midrange shots and step-backs. While NBA teams won't draft him to shoot jumpers, there's very little question that he has NBA shooting range.
Embiid's measurements, taken by his agency, the Wasserman Group, helped, as well. Embiid measured 7-foot-1 in shoes, with a 7-foot-5.75 wingspan and a crazy 9-foot-5.5 standing reach. That makes him the biggest player in the draft, and furthers the appeal for teams looking for a legit center.
Embiid told me that he gained roughly 20 pounds the past two months, though he had lost five in the past three weeks since he began working out again. In his case, that's a good thing. Teams were worried that Embiid, at 250, was a little too light to play the post. The extra 15 pounds seems to have mostly gone to his butt and thighs, exactly were teams want it to go to help him create space and hold his position in the post.
Embiid also told me that his back was "100 percent" and that he was feeling no effects from his injury in March. That was confirmed by several sources who have been working with him in the gym the past few weeks.
"If anything, I think they were overcautious with him," one source said. "He could've played in the next round of the NCAA tournament had Kansas advanced. They were just making sure that the issue would completely go away. He's fine."
If that's true, then I think it will be very hard for the Cavs to pass on him. Players like Embiid don't come along very often and if he continues to impress, he has the chance to be the best center in the NBA someday. For a team that has a need at the 5 (Anderson Varejao is 32 and in the last year of his contract), he gives them both low-post offense and the rim protection that the Cavs have desperately lacked in the past.
However, there are still two major question marks that need to be answered.
First, will Embiid's agent, Arn Tellem, send him to Cleveland for a workout and allow the Cavs' doctors to give his back a full examination? The Cavs aren't going to just take Embiid's word on this. Their doctors will have to be comfortable with him. As of this weekend, Tellem was still in discussions with the Cavs on sending Embiid to Cleveland. Both sides expect to work out something that allows the Cavs to get to see Embiid.
Second, if Embiid is allowed to visit Cleveland and if the Cavs' doctors give him a clean bill of health, will new GM David Griffin and owner Dan Gilbert take him No. 1? A number of sources close to the Cavs confirm that they really like Embiid and in a vacuum, would likely take him No. 1. But the Cavs aren't in a vacuum. Gilbert has been adamant that he's tired of missing the playoffs and expects the team to make a playoff run this season. While Embiid may have the highest upside of any player in the draft, he also is the least NBA-ready of the three top prospects. Can Griffin afford to take, and will Gilbert sign off on taking, a player who is unlikely to make a major impact next season? Especially when the other two players on the board also have elite talent, and could make a more immediate impact?
Parker comes away with the most impressive workout
Parker reminded us all on Friday that he also is still in this mix to be the top pick. In fact, I thought Parker's workout was the most impressive of the three that I saw. Here's why: Parker is the most skilled of the top three players in the draft and he attacked that workout like it was a national championship game. Not only did he go harder than Wiggins or Embiid, he went harder than anyone else I've seen in a workout this year. It reminded me, a little, of the great workout Damian Lillard did in Oakland a few years ago. Aggressiveness and competitiveness show in things like this, and Parker passed those tests with flying colors.
And Parker did it without being in elite shape. About 20 or so minutes into the workout he got very winded and even, for a brief second, leaned on a garbage can close to where I was sitting. But he fought through the moment of fatigue and finished the workout strong with a series of impressive dunks alongside Jerami Grant.
A source in Parker's camp revealed to me on Friday that Parker had only been working out there in Santa Monica a few weeks. "He's in good shape now," the source said. "The reports that he was 20 pounds overweight weren't true. But I'm not going to say he was in great shape, either. Guys take some time off after the season to let their bodies rest. I think he's already back to as good of shape as he was at Duke, if not better. It's not a big deal. But I'm not worried about what shape he's in in May. It's how he looks when he goes into workouts in mid-June. Parker's been working his butt off here. He's going to be in great shape when he needs to be."
Parker's skilled game shined at the workout. His jump shot was falling from everywhere on the court, he showed great quickness with the ball and he had that step-back working as well as I've ever seen it. He's incredibly skilled for a player his age and size -- all of that will translate to the NBA right away.
We didn't get to see Parker play any defense -- the area that teams are most concerned about. However, his measurements also gave some teams hope that perhaps he could defend NBA 4s. He measured 6-foot-9 in shoes with a 6-foot-11.5 wingspan and an 8-foot-11.5 standing reach. Those numbers are on par with Julius Randle and Aaron Gordon -- both projected as NBA power forwards. While teams worry that Parker may not have the lateral quickness to guard NBA 3s, perhaps he's strong enough and big enough to guard 4s. Several GMs I spoke with over the weekend think it's a possibility.
"I think offensively he's an NBA 3 all the way," one GM said. "But we really rate position by who you can guard defensively and I think Jabari might have both the strength and size to guard most 4s in the league. If he can, I think it helps his stock tremendously."
Nevertheless, Parker's perceived lack of upside, along with his questionable defensive abilities, has raised questions in Cleveland and Milwaukee. It's conceivable that he could slide to the Sixers or Orlando Magic on draft night.
But there's also the chance he could wind up as the No. 1 overall pick. The Cavs, under GM Chris Grant, have had him at the top of their Big Board all season. Parker is the most NBA-ready of the group, and with the likelihood of Luol Deng leaving via free agency, he fills a need for Cleveland. If the Cavs are looking for an impact player with high character and competitiveness, Parker seems like the perfect fit.
In the end, the Cavs are going to have a very tough decision to make. All three players are worthy of the No. 1 pick in the draft. All three have distinct strengths and weaknesses.
And as for the Bucks and Sixers -- it seems there will be no losers on draft night. This is shaping up to be a terrific draft.
