A week into the NBA's conference semifinals, it's already clear the second round won't be able to match the drama the first round of this season's playoffs provided.
Depending on the results of Monday's Game 4 between the Brooklyn Nets and Miami Heat, it's possible that the team with home-court advantage will lead three of the four series through four games, leaving the Los Angeles Clippers and Oklahoma City Thunder (tied 2-2 after an improbable comeback by the Clippers in Sunday's Game 4) as our best hope of a seven-game series.
Let's take a look at where each series stands, using past NBA best-of-seven results from WhoWins.com to estimate the favorite's chance of winning.
San Antonio Spurs vs. Portland Trail Blazers
Spurs' chances of winning: 100 percent
No team in NBA history has ever come back from a 3-0 deficit. In fact, across the three major American pro sports that use the best-of-seven format, just five teams have done so (most recently this season's L.A. Kings) in 319 attempts (1.6 percent). Eventually, an NBA team is bound to pull off the unprecedented comeback. At Sunday's light workout, the Blazers were willing to embrace the mentality that they should be the ones to do it.
"It's not easy by any stretch of the imagination," guard Wesley Matthews said. "We know the stats, we know it's never happened before, but sports are unpredictable. As soon as the ball tips up, there's a 50-50 chance of winning that game."
If and when the 3-0 comeback happens, however, it will probably be achieved by a team that loses three closely fought games to start the series. That doesn't describe Portland, which has been outscored by an average of 18.7 points per game. According to WhoWins.com, the Spurs are the fourth team in NBA history to win the first three games of a playoff series by 15-plus points. Two of the other three swept; the 2000 Utah Jazz were able to win Game 4 (against the Blazers) before losing the series in five games.
Indiana Pacers vs. Washington Wizards
Pacers' chances of winning: 98.6 percent
Overall, the odds are heavily stacked against a team down 3-1 in a series. Such teams are 8-219 (.037) in NBA history, but that actually understates the magnitude of the task the Wizards face. Teams with home-court advantage down 3-1 are 6-74 (.081), as compared to 2-145 (.014) for lower seeds like Washington. The Wizards must win twice at Bankers Life Fieldhouse and hold serve at home -- something they were unable to do this weekend -- in order to advance.
Though Washington has lost two close games (Games 2 and 4), the Pacers' starting five appears to be getting stronger as this series goes on. In Game 4, Indiana was plus-16 in the 35 minutes its starters played together. After getting outscored by eight points in 12 minutes in Game 1, the starting five is a combined plus-45 in 87 minutes over the past three games.
Sunday's outcome was only close because the Pacers struggled so badly with their bench in the game. They were outscored by an incredible 18 points in Luis Scola's eight minutes of play, and 15 points in C.J. Watson's 11 minutes. Frank Vogel adjusted by tightening his rotation and riding his starters down the stretch, something he may be able to get away with since Indiana will get an extended rest if it can close out the series on Tuesday.
Miami Heat vs. Brooklyn Nets
Heat's chances of winning: 89.3 percent
Ray Allen, Dwyane Wade, LeBron James
Issac Baldizon/NBAE/Getty Images
After getting extra rest between series after sweeping the Bobcats, the Heat may not have the fresher legs versus their next opponent, should they beat the Nets.
Despite losing Saturday, the Heat still hold a comfortable edge in this series. A win Monday night in Brooklyn would effectively end the series, putting Miami in the same position as Indiana (up 3-1 heading home), while even if the Nets win they would still have to win either Game 5 or Game 7 on the road to pull off the huge upset. Brooklyn is unlikely to see a repeat of its 15-of-25 3-point shooting from Game 3, giving the Heat a better chance to steal a road win on Monday.
That said, Miami's position no longer looks nearly as enviable as it did a week ago. Suddenly, it appears possible -- even likely -- that both the Pacers and the Spurs will close out their series ahead of the Heat, mitigating some of the rest advantage they earned by sweeping the Charlotte Bobcats in the first round. Also, if both series play to form, Miami will have to go on the road in both the Eastern Conference finals and the NBA Finals, should the Heat get that far.
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Los Angeles Clippers
Thunder's chances of winning: 77.7 percent
Based on past results, the closest of the four semifinal series still isn't that close -- though the Clippers have a far, far better chance of pulling off the upset than they would have had if not for their fourth-quarter comeback on Sunday, in which case they would have been in the same position as the Wizards.
Historically, a series tied 2-2 has overwhelmingly favored the team with home-court advantage. Why? The lower-seeded team has to steal a game on the road, and since home teams win Game 7 79.8 percent of the time, splitting the next two usually isn't enough. That makes Tuesday's Game 5 crucial for the Clippers.
The chances are better for a lower-seeded team that has outscored its opponent, as the Clippers have by two points over four games. However, that edge is almost entirely due to Game 1 (plus-17) and the fourth quarter of Game 4 (plus-14). In the other 11 quarters of the series, Oklahoma City has a 29-point edge. That makes it challenging to figure out where this series is headed next.
The Clippers had no answer for Kevin Durant until putting Chris Paul on the MVP and double-teaming him in their fourth-quarter comeback. Asking Paul to defend Durant for a full game isn't realistic, and the Thunder will probably be better prepared to deal with the Durant-Paul matchup come Game 5. One possible answer is avoiding it altogether in favor of attacking the Russell Westbrook-Darren Collison matchup that might actually be more favorable for Oklahoma City.
At the same time, Doc Rivers could still be better off going small because of the advantages it provides on offense. For all the hand-wringing about the Thunder's stagnant offense down the stretch on Sunday, they scored a respectable 24 points on 25 possessions in the fourth quarter, or a point per possession before Westbrook's desperation 3 at the buzzer. The problem was the Clippers' offense putting up 38 points on 63.6 percent shooting in the fourth. L.A.'s three-guard lineup was able to generate steals that led to layups at the other end and provided enough spacing for Blake Griffin to score out of pick-and-rolls.