1) The Way Miami defended D Green in games 6 & 7 last year is how they'll defend him for most of the series. I can't fathom how he goes absurd this year from deep against them. Spo and co. already figured out how to shut him out completely. Also Gary Neal was going stupid too, and while they still have capable shooters, I don't think any of them will be going that ballistic and be that prolific from downtown like Gary was last year in the finals. Whatever D Green and the others do from deep I think Battier, Allen, Chalmers, Cole, and Lewis will be able to replicate. Lewis confidence is at an all time high right now, that's a good thing for Miami
2) Miami defense is the best it's been all season. While the Heat's defense hasn't been what it was the last two years, the last two, three games of that Indy series they were swarming. Straight flying around the court. Have to like the fact that they are peaking defensively at the right time. Rotations are crisp and hard, people aren't getting beat and if they are the help and recovery is swift and quick. I just loved what I saw defensively from them to end this series.
3) The Big 3 for Miami is peaking at the right time as well. The Big 3 have played their finest the last three games of that series. Wade was really good throughout, and Bosh has found his confidence in his game again. Both were not nearly this good going into the finals last year. Bosh is a confident shooter going into the finals which makes him a legit threat offensively from deep and opens the floor more than it was in the series last summer.
4) Bron and Wade both have played a grueling 7 game series against the Spurs already. This is important to me because they now know what the spurs are going to do, and how they are going to play them. As a basketball player, they know what they did that was successful against them and I feel like that experience of playing against the spurs on defense will allow them to come into this series confident and prepared for what they are going to see. Thus, i expect both to be better against them
5) The Lebron James factor. The best player in not only the series, but the league. If he catches fire from the 3 or just from a overall scoring perspective, it's lights out because when he's scoring well, great things happen for Miami due to his ability to create open shots for their shooters.
For the aforementioned, that's why I originally had the Heat in 5 but I changed that to Heat in 6 because I think they'll split at home instead of stealing the first two which I originally thought.
Also, if I'm wrong on this....it won't be because they are "tired" The Big 3 are in great shape right now from a health and age perspective, and haven't had to extend themselves this season and postseason thus far.