2012 Official NFL Fantasy Football Thread

[venom lyrix]

Benson worth a draft? Starks is .

no, why draft an RB in a system that doesn't focus or care about running the rock?

Rodgers, the best fantasy QB the last 3 years running with targets of Nelson, Jennings, Finley, Cobb and more gets his pts throwing, not handing off the rock

 

[jj1223]

Sneak, you just talked me right out of taking Stafford with any non-top 3 first round pick and right into the Matt Ryan camp. You'd better not let me down.

 

[venom lyrix]

Quick Trade Advice: In a Yahoo standard scoring league, would you trade away Darren McFadden to receive Darren Sproles and Aaron Hernandez?
For more background, I currently have Jared Cook at TE. RBs are Ray Rice, McFadden, Gore, and Fred Jackson. Yes, I stacked and hoarded.

He's arguably worth a (late) 2nd rounder in a 14-teamer. He's THAT good. The fact that people can't see that he not Roddy is the guy to own for the Falcons now just helps further his value considering the fact that he's going after Roddy.
Consider this,
coupled with this....
So is an all-world talent worth a 3rd rounder? YES, HELL ******G YES. You guys don't want Julio? Pass him over here. .

in a heart beat

 

[champcruthik]

Thanks for the feedback, guys. Thought it was a good offer but hesitated because of the standard Yahoo scoring (non-PPR). Decreases Sproles' value significantly. Everyone on NT knows McFadden is my dude since the Arkansas days, but it seems he can't stay healthy in the NFL whereas "Little Tank" Sproles plays almost every game with significant durability and versatility in multiple packages. I still believe NO and Brees will have a down year without Payton, but I suppose upgrading at TE with Hernandez over Cook is icing on the cake.

 

[Clyde Frog]

Found out I got the third pick in my 10 team start 2 QB and 2 DEF league, drafting next Monday.
Taking Brees, Brady or Rodgers.

Its seems as if theres some who are against taking a QB in the first but i disagree. There's a small risk involved but the people who destroyed last year were the ones who had the QB/WR tandems. If you can get it. Brady/Gronk, Brees/Graham, Rodgers/Jennings/Jordy, Stafford/Calvin are all unstoppable. If you can make this happen you got a huge edge imo. You should still be able to get an above average RB like Gore, Bush, Turner, Lynch in the third. By the 4th you can maybe can get someone like Green-Ellis who could be money this year. Later on you could get a third RB to find a sleeper like Redman, Helu, Ryan Williams, or Spiller.

 

[SneakerProSr.]

Which brings me to my next point,
nobody expected Cam to be a top fantasy option last season (he broke records, first player in NFL HISTORY to have 4000+ yards passing, 10 + rush TD's in a single season, first player in NFL history to have 4,000+ yards passing and 500+ rushing yards in a single season). Oh yeah he also recorded the greatest rookie QB season ever in NFL history....
nobody expected Stafford to be a top fantasy option last season (he broke records, ended the season with 5,038 passing yards, good for 5th most all-time and 41 TDs, good for 7th most all-time). He's also the first QB in NFL history to throw for 1500 yards and 14 TDs over a 4-game span. He did that between weeks 14-17 (fantasy playoff time).
nobody expect Eli to be a top fantasy option last season (he broke records, ended the season with 4,933 passing yards, good for 6th most all-time). He also continued putting up stellar yardage by shattering the record for most yards thrown in a single post-season. That's just a couple of the records he broke last season....

See a pattern? Ready for some De Ja Vu?
Nobody expects Matt Ryan to be a top fantasy option this season, he can very well throw for ~5,000 yards, 30+ TDs this season.
Nobody expects Tony Romo to be a top fantasy option this season, he can very well throw for ~5,000 yards, 30+ TDs this season.
Nobody STILL expects Eli lol , dudes not going to convinced until Eli **** around and start breaking his brother's records, he already threw for more passing yards than Peyton EVER did in a single-season) to be a top fantasy option this season, he can very well throw for ~5,000 yards, 30+ TDs this season.
Get the point? This is turning into a pass-heavy league. These gaudy numbers are no longer going to be the exception, they'll soon be the norm. Soon as in, like right now.....Why take Drew Brees early when you can get similar production 3 rounds later?

Matt Ryan doesn't have the arm that or the crappy defense that players like Stafford and Cam had.

The Lions defense still sucks and so does the Panthers.

 

[champcruthik]

Significant mid-to-late round RB value: Donald Brown, C.J. Spiller, Evan Royster, and Ryan Williams.

 

[HEATHEN]

Matt Ryan doesn't have the arm that or the crappy defense that players like Stafford and Cam had.
The Lions defense still sucks and so does the Panthers.

Regarding Matt Ryan's effectiveness and just how valuable he is to that Falcons offense...

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/qb

Behind Matt Stafford....


Regarding the Lions defense....

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamdef

Top-10 and almost identical to none other than.....The Falcons.



Ummmm......What was that you were saying again?


The Falcons are transitioning to a pass-heavy offense. Even their ground-game will more reliant on the aerial attack with Jacquizz Rodgers looking to inherit a 3rd down Sproles type role this season. Ryan will have ample opportunity to eclipse his career bests. He put up career bests in spite of a shortened training-camp, an injured/limited Julio and a slow-starting Roddy White. Oh yeah and their O-line last season? Atrocious in pass-blocking.

If you don't think he'll eclipse his career bests with a healthy Julio (who he has further built rapport with) and a full training camp then I don't know what to tell you.

 

[SneakerProSr.]

Regarding Matt Ryan's effectiveness and just how valuable he is to that Falcons offense...
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/qb
Behind Matt Stafford....
Regarding the Lions defense....
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamdef
Top-10 and almost identical to none other than.....The Falcons.
Ummmm......What was that you were saying again?

You can post whatever the hell you want to.

The Lions defense sucked last year after Louis Delmas got hurt and he's hurt again.

Its not cool to brag about fantasy football prowess BUT I won both my leagues last year and scored the most points by far in by in both of them.

The Lions secondary will continue to concede a ton of points and they still don't have a solid running game.

You keep doing you homie and I'll keep getting this bread.

Draft situations much as players.

 

[HEATHEN]

Regarding Matt Ryan's effectiveness and just how valuable he is to that Falcons offense...
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/qb
Behind Matt Stafford....
Regarding the Lions defense....
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamdef
Top-10 and almost identical to none other than.....The Falcons.
Ummmm......What was that you were saying again?
The Falcons are transitioning to a pass-heavy offense. Even their ground-game will more reliant on the aerial attack with Jacquizz Rodgers looking to inherit a 3rd down Sproles type role this season. Ryan will have ample opportunity to eclipse his season. He put up career bests in spite of a shortened training-camp, an injured/limited Julio and a slow-starting Roddy White. Oh yeah and their O-line last season? Atrocious in pass-blocking.
If you don't think he'll eclipse his career bests with a healthy Julio (who he has further built rapport with) and a full training camp then I don't know what to tell you.

edited, take another look if you want further explanation.


Listen you don't have to take the advice, but you can't ignore facts. The numbers don't lie. Ryan eclipsed career bests in-spite of nearly everything working against him early on. He got exponentially better as the season went on and Roddy got his groove back and his rapport with Julio grew. Everyone is much better acclimated this season, he's going to have an even better season this year.

 

[onna]

:x

 

[HEATHEN]

You can post whatever the hell you want to.
The Lions defense sucked last year after Louis Delmas got hurt and he's hurt again.
Its not cool to brag about fantasy football prowess BUT I won both my leagues last year and scored the most points by far in by in both of them.
The Lions secondary will continue to concede a ton of points and they still don't have a solid running game.
You keep doing you homie and I'll keep getting this bread.
Draft situations much as players.

This debate went from you under-mining Ryan's upside this season to talking about the potency of the Lion's defense. Keep your train of thought on its tracks.

Guess what? Everyone won their league last season too . Doesn't make anyone an expert.


Again, men lie, women lie, the numbers don't. The real question is why the salt? Coming off a bit hostile there sparky, chill out son....

I'm here to help people (and gain some perspective from others), if people take exception to my thoughts, that's fine by me. Just do it in a manner that is productive and helpful to others is all I ask. Aren't we all in this thread to help one another?

Opinions are like ********, everyone has one. Keep your personal feelings in check.

 

[SneakerProSr.]

edited, take another look if you want further explanation.
Listen you don't have to take the advice, but you can't ignore facts. The numbers don't lie. Ryan eclipsed career bests in-spite of nearly everything working against him early on. He got exponentially better as the season went on and Roddy got his groove back and his rapport with Julio grew. Everyone is much better acclimated this season, he's going to have an even better season this year.

They don't and in my league Stafford outscored Matt Ryan by 8 points a game in one league and 7 points a game in the other.

In comparison the variance between in scoring between say the 4 highest scoring RB and the 8th was 4 points a week in one and 3.5 in the other.

For my early round picks I need dominance. I need a players to single handedly win weeks.

The difference between the top 5 QBs and a player like say a Matt Ryan is that drastic.

The two years I have prioritized getting an elite QB I dominated both my leagues.

 

[SneakerProSr.]

Bro the numbers you linked to are the equivalent of plus/minus numbers in the NBA. That's cool if you are trying to vote for MVP of the league but this is Fantasy where raw numbers matter most.

I'm sorry but I totally disagree with you on the drafting a QB early thing

 

[HEATHEN]

They don't and in my league Stafford outscored Matt Ryan by 8 points a game in one league and 7 points a game in the other.
In comparison the variance between in scoring between say the 4 highest scoring RB and the 8th was 4 points a week in one and 3.5 in the other.
For my early round picks I need dominance. I need a players to single handedly win weeks.
The difference between the top 5 QBs and a player like say a Matt Ryan is that drastic.
The two years I have prioritized getting an elite QB I dominated both my leagues.

Yet Stafford wasn't a top-5 QB going into last season, was he? He wasn't being drafted as a QB1 in most leagues.

You're not making any sense...


The whole point I'm making is that Ryan is in a better situation this season, he started off slow and really started blowing up in the latter-half of the season. Which is also where he closed the gap between he and the top-tier guys. I don't care what league you were in, he finished top-10 in scoring amongst all players in '11 in >99% of leagues.

He's going to be even better this season. He's a value pick at his ADP, just like Stafford was a value at his ADP last season (correction, he was a downright STEAL). You don't win championships by drafting guys at their peak ADP. Guess what? People took Vick in the first last season and it bit 'em in the ***, if Stafford bombs this season expect the same fate for his owners...Why? Because you took him with a first-round pick.

You're mitigating the risk by waiting on a QB that offers similar upside. How many RBs are left that offer RB1 upside in rounds 3-5??? After round 5?

 

[HEATHEN]

Bro the numbers you linked to are the equivalent of plus/minus numbers in the NBA. That's cool if you are trying to vote for MVP of the league but this is Fantasy where raw numbers matter most.
I'm sorry but I totally disagree with you on the drafting a QB early thing

Yes because people were taking Cam, Stafford, and Eli in the first round.


Yet all three rivaled the "big three".

Also, not so sure you're grasping those numbers very well. It's about efficiency, value per play, and overall value.

 

[headorchest]

I really don't think you have a true RB #2... I couldn't justify drafting any TE in the first 2 rounds. RB's are too important and are very thin. I like Jackson but with his age and mileage it kind of scares me

 

[SneakerProSr.]

Yet Stafford wasn't a top-5 QB going into last season, was he? He wasn't being drafted as a QB1 in most leagues.
You're not making any sense...
The whole point I'm making is that Ryan is in a better situation this season, he started off slow and really started blowing up in the latter-half of the season. Which is also where he closed the gap between he and the top-tier guys. I don't care what league you were in, he finished top-10 in scoring amongst all players in '11 in >99% of leagues.
He's going to be even better this season. He's a value pick at his ADP, just like Stafford was a value at his ADP last season (correction, he was a downright STEAL). You don't win championships by drafting guys at their peak ADP. Guess what? People took Vick in the first last season and it bit 'em in the ***, if Stafford bombs this season expect the same fate for his owners...
You're mitigating the risk by waiting on a QB that offers similar upside.

I probably should state my argument clearer.

I would never draft a player like Vick or even Cam with a first round pick. I guess I shouldn't say you HAVE to get QB with your early round pick but if an elite one is on the board I think you should take one him no matter what. What I mean by drafting situations is because I'm a Lions fan I know that Detroit's entire offense is going to go threw Stafford's arm. Whether they are up, down or tied. The Lions probably have the worst talent at DB in the entire NFL which means a ton of shoot outs. The Lions defense also got appreciably worse as the season progressed and IMO they haven't addressed it at all in the offseason.

I typed all that to say players like Brees, Rodgers, Brady and IMO Stafford are all the focal points of their teams. None of them have legit running games and they have elite talents. If one of them is on the board I think you should take them no matter what because they are going to outscore comparable players at that position by a wider margin than lets say a QB you get in the 4th or 5th round versus a running back situation you get in the 4th or 5th round.

I got Fred Jackson in the 6th round last year and Spiller off the waiver wire to handcuff, that situation was highly effective for me because I took Aaron Rodgers with the 4th overall pick and I would have taken him 1st if I had the pick.

 

[SneakerProSr.]

One more thing.

I'm Lions fan so I felt that Stafford was going to cook. He was first quarterback I took in my work league because I had the last pick in the first round and the "elite QBs" were gone.

I got him in the 9th round in one league and 11th in the other(he backed up Rodgers).

The only player I see this year in a comparable situation of Stafford last year in Josh Freeman.

If you have a mid round pick that you think is going produce top 5 production at QB then wait but I wouldn't unless you are fully invested in said player.

 

[HEATHEN]

I probably should state my argument clearer.
I would never draft a player like Vick or even Cam with a first round pick. I guess I shouldn't say you HAVE to get QB with your early round pick but if an elite one is on the board I think you should take one him no matter what. What I mean by drafting situations is because I'm a Lions fan I know that Detroit's entire offense is going to go threw Stafford's arm. Whether they are up, down or tied. The Lions probably have the worst talent at DB in the entire NFL which means a ton of shoot outs. The Lions defense also got appreciably worse as the season progressed and IMO they haven't addressed it at all in the offseason.
I typed all that to say players like Brees, Rodgers, Brady and IMO Stafford are all the focal points of their teams. None of them have legit running games and they have elite talents. If one of them is on the board I think you should take them no matter what because they are going to outscore comparable players at that position by a wider margin than lets say a QB you get in the 4th or 5th round versus a running back situation you get in the 4th or 5th round.
I got Fred Jackson in the 6th round last year and Spiller off the waiver wire to handcuff, that situation was highly effective for me because I took Aaron Rodgers with the 4th overall pick and I would have taken him 1st if I had the pick.

1. The Saints had the 6th best running attack in the NFL last season. 7th in rushing TDs.

2. The Patriots were 4th in rushing TDs last season.

Both teams rely heavily on their ground-game, and as I stated earlier, Rodgers is the exception. Stafford is the exception now too since Jahvid/LeShoure are both hurt.

3. Handcuffs like CJ Spiller aren't going to be just chilling on the waiver-wire this season. Cuffs like David Wilson, Daniel Thomas, Isaiah Pead, Ronnie Hillman etc, are all being drafted in standard 10-12 teamers. So it's a safe assumption they're highly coveted in even larger leagues.

4. Finding a legit QB1 late in drafts is a lot easier than finding a legit RB1 later, especially this season where RBs are already dropping like flies. People are savvier than ever and everyone is already looking at tape trying to find the next DeMarco Murray or Michael Bush (or Spiller to emerge). However in my leagues last season, I had zero prayer at landing any one of the three as they were already owned.

I'm not going to play the waiver-wire roulette, you go 'head. Chances are higher than ever that stud RB waiver-gem is already owned.


Again, the only guy I see being the pure exception is Rodgers, and now that I think of it maybe Stafford. Thanks for that though, you just helped me further nail-down Stafford's value this season.

Still wouldn't go QB in the first, but if i had to I'd consider Rodgers...and perhaps Stafford if he fell to the 2nd round. Waiver-wire roulette sounds eerily similar to russian-roulette, that's not a game I want to be playing with an already volatile position (running-back). Your best bet is to go with an RB1 early if you want to mitigate risk.

 

[HEATHEN]

One more thing.
I'm Lions fan so I felt that Stafford was going to cook. He was first quarterback I took in my work league because I had the last pick in the first round and the "elite QBs" were gone.
I got him in the 9th round in one league and 11th in the other(he backed up Rodgers).
The only player I see this year in a comparable situation of Stafford last year in Josh Freeman.
If you have a mid round pick that you think is going produce top 5 production at QB then wait but I wouldn't unless you are fully invested in said player.

This season or last?


Josh Freeman? .....


I'm done. Yes Freeman is a better bet at 5000/30 than Romo, Ryan, and Eli.


I don't even know where to....yeah I'm done.

 

[SneakerProSr.]

1. The Saints had the 6th best running attack in the NFL last season. 7th in rushing TDs.
2. The Patriots were 4th in rushing TDs last season.
Both teams rely heavily on their ground-game, and as I stated earlier, Rodgers is the exception. Stafford is the exception now too since Jahvid/LeShoure are both hurt.
3. Handcuffs like CJ Spiller aren't going to be just chilling on the waiver-wire this season. Cuffs like David Wilson, Daniel Thomas, Isaiah Pead, Ronnie Hillman etc, are all being drafted in standard 10-12 teamers. So it's a safe assumption they're highly coveted in even larger leagues.
4. Finding a legit QB1 late in drafts is a lot easier than finding a legit RB1 later, especially this season where RBs are already dropping like flies. People are savvier than ever and everyone is already looking at tape trying to find the next DeMarco Murray or Michael Bush (or Spiller to emerge). However in my leagues last season, I had zero prayer at landing any one of the three as they were already owned.
I'm not going to play the waiver-wire roulette, you go 'head. Chances are higher than ever that stud RB waiver-gem is already owned.
Again, the only guy I see being the pure exception is Rodgers, and now that I think of it maybe Stafford. Thanks for that though, you just helped me further nail-down Stafford's value this season.
Still wouldn't go QB in the first, but if i had to I'd consider Rodgers...and perhaps Stafford if he fell to the 2nd round. Waiver-wire roulette sounds eerily similar to russian-roulette, that's not a game I want to be playing with an already volatile position (running-back). Your best bet is to go with an RB1 early if you want to mitigate risk.

I guess its all personal experience. RB's are so fragile I just can't ever see me drafting one in the first again unless its Ray Rice or Shady McCoy

 

[SneakerProSr.]

Bro Freeman will go in the 9-10th round which is where Stafford went last year.

He is the only QB going that low that I think can give top 5-10 at position results.

Yes Eli will be better and cost 4-5th round pick.

So if you are sold on Freeman(I'm not)but the talent is there. I say take go all in and take him and start him.

 

[buc em]

Dumpoffs to Doug Martin, bombs to V-Jax, checkdowns to Dallas Clark, working the middle of the field with Mike Williams, the addition or Carl Nicks and the subtraction of Jeff Faine from the offense line (you don't understand how awful Faine was), the addition of a disciplinarian in Schiano and the subtraction of the player's BFF Raheem and Freeman dropping 20 pounds and getting into the best shape of his life. That offense could be really, really good this year. But with the year Freeman had last year and people not really even paying attention to the Bucs I'm sure he won't be getting drafted until the late rounds this year. He'll be a HUGE steal for anyone who grabs him late in the draft, I guarantee it. And for the record, Blount IS the Bucs starting RB right now. He's getting severely undervalued. Doug Martin is awesome, but Blount is pretty damn good as well. It's going to be a 50/50 type of timeshare and Blount has really turned around the way he approaches the game this summer since Schiano came to town. Completely changed the way he holds the ball when he runs and is showing that he can pass block and catch passes. Unless something goes ridiculously wrong out of the blue I expect him to continue as the starter.

 

[Bert.]

rate my team

dont make fun of me, im a newb