Why do teams punt the ball on 4th down?

[sonunox34]

I coach junior high football and we never punt... but that's junior high. It's funny though, if it's more than 4th and 10 we just throw up a30-yard interception... better than some kid shanking a 10-yard boot.

As far as the NFL, I think it's more a matter of playing it safe. No one wants to be the coach that lost the lead because he didn't punt. When it comesto multi-millions of dollars at stake, you better play it safe unless you're extremely confident.

 

[niketalker23]

Originally Posted by sonunox34

I coach junior high football and we never punt... but that's junior high. It's funny though, if it's more than 4th and 10 we just throw up a 30-yard interception... better than some kid shanking a 10-yard boot.

As far as the NFL, I think it's more a matter of playing it safe. No one wants to be the coach that lost the lead because he didn't punt. When it comes to multi-millions of dollars at stake, you better play it safe unless you're extremely confident.

Im sorry but that's horrible coaching.

 

[crftz333]

Originally Posted by NikeTalker23

Originally Posted by sonunox34

I coach junior high football and we never punt... but that's junior high. It's funny though, if it's more than 4th and 10 we just throw up a 30-yard interception... better than some kid shanking a 10-yard boot.

As far as the NFL, I think it's more a matter of playing it safe. No one wants to be the coach that lost the lead because he didn't punt. When it comes to multi-millions of dollars at stake, you better play it safe unless you're extremely confident.

Im sorry but that's horrible coaching.

why? because it's not what other teams do? Sorry,but that's horrible logic.

This is very similar to the article I posted about onside kicks about a month ago. The stats show that it pays to be aggressive in these situations, and ifyou have a losing team you might as well try SOMETHING different... playing "the right way" according to fans and experts will get you just as manylosses in most cases.

Like was said in the onside kick thread though - there's so much pressure on coaches now, they will never try this stuff because it's better to losethe conventional way than to try something different.

 

[mez 0ne]

Originally Posted by PlatinumFunk

Originally Posted by DeadsetAce

Originally Posted by Mez 0ne

So say your pinned back on your 15-20 yard line, you want to go for it on 4th down because the percentages are in your favor?

In the NFL you will regret that decision.

seriously. you're basically giving the opponent at least a FG. unless the plan is that all teams just never punt or kick fgs

On the other hand, if you punt, chances are they'll start at about the 50... and that's about 20 and change yards away from a field goal anyway. Also, the benefits completely outweigh the negatives. I agree with OP, people are just dismissive of anything radically opposite to what they have been led to believe. I'll get flamed for using this example... but if you play this way (albeit cheap) on Madden, you're going to win a lot of the time. Just going for it on fourth... and running a lot of clock

You give yourself a worse chance doing that though.

If your backed up at the 15 yard line on 4th down, why risk going for it and turning the ball over? If you punt the ball back to their 40-45 yard line you canstill trust your defense to stop them and get the ball back for you (they would need a couple of first downs to get in FG rnage). If you turn the ball overinstead, regardless if you play good defense or not, your going to give up 3 points because they'll kick a chip shot FG on 4th down.

The negatives heavily outweigh the positives.

If your driving down the field and in rhythm go for it on fourth if your mid field or in their territory, but backed up? Nah man, I don't care what bogusstats you throw my way, that is NOT good strategy.

 

[bangdak]

Originally Posted by Crftz333

Originally Posted by NikeTalker23

Originally Posted by sonunox34

I coach junior high football and we never punt... but that's junior high. It's funny though, if it's more than 4th and 10 we just throw up a 30-yard interception... better than some kid shanking a 10-yard boot.

As far as the NFL, I think it's more a matter of playing it safe. No one wants to be the coach that lost the lead because he didn't punt. When it comes to multi-millions of dollars at stake, you better play it safe unless you're extremely confident.

Im sorry but that's horrible coaching.

i think hes talking about that.
i think its pretty bad coaching too. whats the point in that..? just to throw it up in the air and hope some kid catches it?
im not a huge football fan, but i always wondered why they never just ran a play on 4th down instead of punting when i first started watching.
its always better safe then sorry though.

 

[JD617]

I saw a kid punt in NFL Blitz once. He was never allowed to play again.

 

[senatorjeffsmith]

Why not bring back sneak punts on third down?

If I'm not mistaken Randall Cunningham used to do this but then again he could do this:

 

[doctorshoes]

What if your offense sucks but your defense is great? Wouldn't it make sense to punt and try to get better field position to get a better chance at scoringinstead of trusting a bad offense to convert on 4th down?

 

[crftz333]

Originally Posted by Mez 0ne

Originally Posted by PlatinumFunk

Originally Posted by DeadsetAce

Originally Posted by Mez 0ne

So say your pinned back on your 15-20 yard line, you want to go for it on 4th down because the percentages are in your favor?

In the NFL you will regret that decision.

seriously. you're basically giving the opponent at least a FG. unless the plan is that all teams just never punt or kick fgs

On the other hand, if you punt, chances are they'll start at about the 50... and that's about 20 and change yards away from a field goal anyway. Also, the benefits completely outweigh the negatives. I agree with OP, people are just dismissive of anything radically opposite to what they have been led to believe. I'll get flamed for using this example... but if you play this way (albeit cheap) on Madden, you're going to win a lot of the time. Just going for it on fourth... and running a lot of clock

You give yourself a worse chance doing that though.

If your backed up at the 15 yard line on 4th down, why risk going for it and turning the ball over? If you punt the ball back to their 40-45 yard line you can still trust your defense to stop them and get the ball back for you (they would need a couple of first downs to get in FG rnage). If you turn the ball over instead, regardless if you play good defense or not, your going to give up 3 points because they'll kick a chip shot FG on 4th down.

The negatives heavily outweigh the positives.

If your driving down the field and in rhythm go for it on fourth if your mid field or in their territory, but backed up? Nah man, I don't care what bogus stats you throw my way, that is NOT good strategy.

What you're saying sounds fine, but according to these articles the numbers just don't back up this conventional thought you'representing.

For one - you guys are acting like all teams have good punters, good punt coverage, etc... and then assuming that other teams take great care of the ball andnever miss scoring chances. It just doesn't work that way. Teams blow opportunities all the time.

Not to mention - not all 4th down situations are equal. if you're beyond your own 40 and you have a 4th down and less then 5... i don't think it seemsall that risky even to those of you acting like this is absurd.

I just think people really are kind of afraid to play aggressive now, mostly because they give their opponents too much credit and their own team not enough.

 

[krazy88s]

No way in hell would give the good passing offense the ball on my own 35 after a failed 4th and 2.

 

[ag 47]

You know how many games have been WON off field position and special teams alone???

 

[ap27]

Originally Posted by PlatinumFunk

Originally Posted by DeadsetAce

Originally Posted by Mez 0ne

So say your pinned back on your 15-20 yard line, you want to go for it on 4th down because the percentages are in your favor?

In the NFL you will regret that decision.

seriously. you're basically giving the opponent at least a FG. unless the plan is that all teams just never punt or kick fgs

On the other hand, if you punt, chances are they'll start at about the 50... and that's about 20 and change yards away from a field goal anyway. Also, the benefits completely outweigh the negatives. I agree with OP, people are just dismissive of anything radically opposite to what they have been led to believe. I'll get flamed for using this example... but if you play this way (albeit cheap) on Madden, you're going to win a lot of the time. Just going for it on fourth... and running a lot of clock

I don't think you can just say something like that without any justification, and it's really simple math...But I think if you just compare theexpected values, the benefit does not outweight the negative at all...

Expected value when GOING on 4th Down (assuming 50% 4th down conversion rate):

(3*(p(scoring fg when starting at 15 yd line)) + 7*(p(scoring TD when starting at 15 yd line)))*p(converting on 4th down) -

(3*(p(other team scores fg when starting at 15 yd line)) + 7*(p(other team scores TD when starting at 15 yd line)))*(1- p(converting on 4th down))

I googled it and it said 4th down conversion rate last year was 53%, which we can round to 50% to make the math very easy...

3*(p(score fg starting at 15 yd line)-p(other team scores starting at 15 yd line) + 7*(p(score td starting at 15 yd line)-p(other team scores td starting at15 yd line))

So you're basically just comparing the E[pts starting from own 15] and E[pts opposition starts on opposing team's 15]

Expected value when Punting on 4th down (assuming a net 35 yard punt):

- (3*(p(other team scores fg when starting at 50 yd line)) + 7*(p(other team scores TD when starting at 50 yd line)) = e[other team scores frommidfield]

Although I don't actually have the probabilities, this is a simple/dumbed down way of looking at it:

Would you rather start from your own 15 AND allow the opposing team to start at your 15 and add together the score, or just let the opposition startfrom midfield? I would guess that given equal teams, you are much more likely to lose by going for it. This simple comparison does assume noturnovers, a net 35 yd punt, and most importantly, a 50% 4th down conversion rate (the 75% conversion rate on 4th and 1s helps, it would change the comparisonto: have the ball at the 15 3 times and give the team the other ball at your own 15 once, but expected value of scoring from your own 15 i would guess are notvery high, while scoring from the other 15 is very high).

I'm not saying there aren't situations in which you can consider it, and it could probably bring up a pretty interesting and easy to designsimulation, but I would guess that if you were asked the above question^, you'd punt.

 

[N41D]

I think there's certain parts of the field that this kind of strategy would make sense...

You just have to weigh the percentages of converting vs. the percentages of giving your opponent great field position...

 

[carlos tevez]

Never punting worked for me in Madden 97

 

[mdterps4]

Forget percentages.

Percentages are in your favor in a classic game of Russian roulette, but would you risk it? Chances are you wouldn't because the risk clearly outweighs thereward. It's the same with punting the ball. If you're in your own territory, why risk giving easy points to the opponent when you can put their backsagainst the wall and go play defense? It just doesn't make sense...

 

[dyyhard]

Originally Posted by SenatorJeffSmith

Why not bring back sneak punts on third down?

If I'm not mistaken Randall Cunningham used to do this but then again he could do this:

http://www.youtube.com/v/OQKHOMHKT00&hl=en&fs=1& http://www.youtube.com/v/OQKHOMHKT00&hl=en&fs=1&

i'm pretty sure Mitch Mustain knows how to do that now too.

+ in the NFL how many coaches would be on the hot seat. it's a sure way to get fired. not sure how many franchises, management would allow for it tohappen.

 

[djaman]

My $.02: I completely understand that paradigm in high school football.

 

[lilstarz07]

what people fail to realize is, if everyone in the league did it, the data will drastically change ...

 

[38690]

a

 

[moe200069]

sucks to be a punter on that HS football team.

 

[38690]

a

 

[lilstarz07]

Originally Posted by jerseymizzle

based on what? i'm not saying it wouldn't but the only way to draw a conclusion in this argument is to test it out, and because too many people have the thoughts from the last 2 pages it never will.

everything in the numbers says to go for it. the only problem is if somebody started doing it, it would have to produce good results at first because people wouldn't wait for averages to play out.

listen, the data they use takes into account things like the success rate the other team scores when teams go for it on fourth downs and fail ... ... ... thatINCLUDES instances at the end of games when the team who eventually gets the ball kneels or kills the clock ... there was an article disputing the data usedbut i really dont feel like looking for it cuz its pointless ...

people dream #@+@ like this up all the time ... they think its amazingly innovative and in reality its just a temporary gimmick ... you start giving nfl teamsthe ball at the opponents 35 and in and see where that gets you ...


edit ... also, if you want to check out the academys record against teams that actually have a decent football program, they get WAXED ...

 

[Deleted member 38182]

Originally Posted by SenatorJeffSmith

Why not bring back sneak punts on third down?

If I'm not mistaken Randall Cunningham used to do this but then again he could do this:

In high school the coach called for the sneak punt on a 3rd down in a Section Title game

 

[jch3]

I agree with this premise for the most part.

I would punt if I was deep in my own zone. But 4th and 2 from midfield, gotta go for it.

 

[alan garner]

interesting read.