This is for you CP, another gem from John Hollinger:
Spoiler [+]
They're too big, right?
That's the question being asked heading into the Western Conference finals between the Suns and Lakers, and it's a convenient storyline, given the juxtaposition of Phoenix's tissue-soft rep and L.A.'s towering size advantage. Most prognosticators expect the Lakers to prevail, and I get the sense most Angelenos view this series as a mere speed bump en route to the NBA Finals.
As one of the longer-tenured residents of a fairly lonely Suns bandwagon, I don't subscribe to that point of view.
For starters, you'd have a tough time proving that L.A. is the better team. The Suns had a better scoring margin in the regular season (a superior predictor of future success) and were better in the second half of the season; since the All-Star break, the Suns are 31-8 and the Lakers are 24-14, including the playoffs. (In a related story, if L.A. and Boston meet in the NBA Finals, no announcer should be allowed to play the "You can't just turn it on" card ever again.)
Focus only on the playoffs, and you get a similar breakdown. Both teams are 8-2 against opposition of similar quality, but the Suns have a far superior scoring margin (plus-89 for Phoenix, plus-39 for L.A.). Each team played one round against a team at full strength and one against a squad with key players injured, so that part is a wash, too.
Of course, this is the playoffs, and, as we all know, playoff series aren't necessarily won by the better team as much as the team that matches up the best. L.A., in particular, presents some serious matchup troubles for most opponents.
Phoenix could be one of them. The Lakers won the regular-season series 3-1, and both games at Staples Center were blowouts -- including one without Pau Gasol. However, the Lakers also caught Phoenix at a good time. They only played the "new" Suns -- the team since the All-Star break -- once, and Phoenix was without key reserves Channing Frye and Leandro Barbosa for that game, a 102-96 Laker win at U.S. Airways Center.
Which takes us back to the size issue. Indeed, few teams can match the Lakers' impressive combination of 7-footers Andrew Bynum and Gasol. But among the hopefuls, the Suns seem to line up as well as anyone. Phoenix will start a 7-footer of its own, most likely, as center Robin Lopez is expected to return to action in Monday's Game 1 after missing almost two months with a back injury.
[+] EnlargeJennifer Stewart/US Presswire
Robin Lopez's return could give the Suns the size they need to match up down low with the Lakers.
The Suns aren't exactly midgets across the rest of the front line, either. Power forward Amare Stoudemire stands 6-10, and Frye, the third big man in their rotation, stands 6-11. Phoenix also might turn to 6-11 defensive specialist Jarron Collins if fouls are a problem. The only Suns big man who faces a major size disadvantage against L.A. is 6-9 energizer Louis Amundson.
That's a contrast to the last round, when the Lakers spent most of the series versus the Jazz working against 6-8 Paul Millsap and 6-9 Carlos Boozer. Additionally, Bynum's knee injury might force the Lakers to go smaller (6-10 Lamar Odom and 6-9 Josh Powell) or deeper (7-0 D.J. Mbenga, which would provide his publicist with billable hours for the first time in months) more frequently than they would like.
That's the equation when the Suns are on defense, but here's the other part everyone forgets: Phoenix isn't the only side facing some matchup difficulties in the frontcourt. Although Gasol is likely to have an advantage working against Frye or Stoudemire in the post, he and Bynum will have major challenges defending Phoenix's big men on the perimeter. Frye is a deadly 3-point shooter, and Stoudemire combines 20-foot range with a lightning-quick first step to his right. Checking either will send L.A.'s big men into terra incognita.
That's a major reason the Suns are such a force offensively, and why they were among the best offensive teams in history in the regular season. In spite of replacing Lopez with offensively inert Collins, Phoenix posted similar numbers in the first two rounds of the playoffs.
And although you won't hear much about Phoenix's "length," this is a big team that uses its size very effectively. In addition to the frontcourt, the Suns play 6-6 Jason Richardson, 6-8 Grant Hill and 6-7 Jared Dudley on the wings. As a result, any smaller player caught on a switch immediately finds himself defending the post, and point guard Steve Nash is an expert at threading passes over fronting defenders.
Phoenix also might go small by playing Dudley, Hill and Richardson at the same time, a look it used often in fourth quarters of the first two rounds. This probably makes more sense if Bynum is off the floor, but the Suns could try to force the matchup and see whether their spacing and speed offset the Lakers' size.
Regardless, the one defensive area most likely to vex the Suns isn't up front but rather on the wing against Kobe Bryant. Although Bryant's physical condition remains a question -- the L.A. Times reported that he recently had fluid drained from his sore knee -- few players are better at competing effectively when less than 100 percent physically.
Additionally, Bryant's presence threatens to take Barbosa out of the series. The Suns' dynamic backup guard stands only 6-3 and could play only if either Bryant or Ron Artest is resting, lest he be savaged on the blocks.
Instead, Hill, Richardson and Dudley should all get turns checking Bryant, with Hill likely getting the first crack. Although in theory this should work out well -- putting size on Bryant is usually the best alternative because it takes away his post game -- Kobe ripped Phoenix to shreds in four regular-season meetings. The Gasol-Bynum combo didn't overly trouble the Suns, but Bryant went off against them, averaging 27.5 points per game on 54.4 percent shooting. The Suns need to keep him under control to win.
Fortunately for the Suns, they don't need to play great D to win the series; an average performance probably will get the job done. For all the talk about how Phoenix learned how to play defense, it was only 19th in defensive efficiency in the regular season, which was worse than Mike D'Antoni's maligned teams. (Everyone forgets this, but those Suns once had tough-as-nails Raja Bell at shooting guard and one of the league's most versatile defenders in Shawn Marion.)
Although Phoenix's defensive numbers improved sharply in the second half of the season, it's still the insanely efficient offense that wins games for the Suns. L.A.'s airtight defense is likely to make life a bit more difficult for Phoenix on that front, especially if veteran Derek Fisher can use his Jedi tricks to keep Nash under control.
Nonetheless, the prevailing story from this series will be the Suns' dizzying array of offensive weapons and how difficult it is for opponents to plug every hole in the dike against such formidable skill. It should be a tough series and might hinge on two shots bouncing in or out … but at the end of it, I still think the Suns will be the ones left standing.
That's the question being asked heading into the Western Conference finals between the Suns and Lakers, and it's a convenient storyline, given the juxtaposition of Phoenix's tissue-soft rep and L.A.'s towering size advantage. Most prognosticators expect the Lakers to prevail, and I get the sense most Angelenos view this series as a mere speed bump en route to the NBA Finals.
As one of the longer-tenured residents of a fairly lonely Suns bandwagon, I don't subscribe to that point of view.
For starters, you'd have a tough time proving that L.A. is the better team. The Suns had a better scoring margin in the regular season (a superior predictor of future success) and were better in the second half of the season; since the All-Star break, the Suns are 31-8 and the Lakers are 24-14, including the playoffs. (In a related story, if L.A. and Boston meet in the NBA Finals, no announcer should be allowed to play the "You can't just turn it on" card ever again.)
Focus only on the playoffs, and you get a similar breakdown. Both teams are 8-2 against opposition of similar quality, but the Suns have a far superior scoring margin (plus-89 for Phoenix, plus-39 for L.A.). Each team played one round against a team at full strength and one against a squad with key players injured, so that part is a wash, too.
Of course, this is the playoffs, and, as we all know, playoff series aren't necessarily won by the better team as much as the team that matches up the best. L.A., in particular, presents some serious matchup troubles for most opponents.
Phoenix could be one of them. The Lakers won the regular-season series 3-1, and both games at Staples Center were blowouts -- including one without Pau Gasol. However, the Lakers also caught Phoenix at a good time. They only played the "new" Suns -- the team since the All-Star break -- once, and Phoenix was without key reserves Channing Frye and Leandro Barbosa for that game, a 102-96 Laker win at U.S. Airways Center.
Which takes us back to the size issue. Indeed, few teams can match the Lakers' impressive combination of 7-footers Andrew Bynum and Gasol. But among the hopefuls, the Suns seem to line up as well as anyone. Phoenix will start a 7-footer of its own, most likely, as center Robin Lopez is expected to return to action in Monday's Game 1 after missing almost two months with a back injury.
[+] EnlargeJennifer Stewart/US Presswire
Robin Lopez's return could give the Suns the size they need to match up down low with the Lakers.
The Suns aren't exactly midgets across the rest of the front line, either. Power forward Amare Stoudemire stands 6-10, and Frye, the third big man in their rotation, stands 6-11. Phoenix also might turn to 6-11 defensive specialist Jarron Collins if fouls are a problem. The only Suns big man who faces a major size disadvantage against L.A. is 6-9 energizer Louis Amundson.
That's a contrast to the last round, when the Lakers spent most of the series versus the Jazz working against 6-8 Paul Millsap and 6-9 Carlos Boozer. Additionally, Bynum's knee injury might force the Lakers to go smaller (6-10 Lamar Odom and 6-9 Josh Powell) or deeper (7-0 D.J. Mbenga, which would provide his publicist with billable hours for the first time in months) more frequently than they would like.
That's the equation when the Suns are on defense, but here's the other part everyone forgets: Phoenix isn't the only side facing some matchup difficulties in the frontcourt. Although Gasol is likely to have an advantage working against Frye or Stoudemire in the post, he and Bynum will have major challenges defending Phoenix's big men on the perimeter. Frye is a deadly 3-point shooter, and Stoudemire combines 20-foot range with a lightning-quick first step to his right. Checking either will send L.A.'s big men into terra incognita.
That's a major reason the Suns are such a force offensively, and why they were among the best offensive teams in history in the regular season. In spite of replacing Lopez with offensively inert Collins, Phoenix posted similar numbers in the first two rounds of the playoffs.
And although you won't hear much about Phoenix's "length," this is a big team that uses its size very effectively. In addition to the frontcourt, the Suns play 6-6 Jason Richardson, 6-8 Grant Hill and 6-7 Jared Dudley on the wings. As a result, any smaller player caught on a switch immediately finds himself defending the post, and point guard Steve Nash is an expert at threading passes over fronting defenders.
Phoenix also might go small by playing Dudley, Hill and Richardson at the same time, a look it used often in fourth quarters of the first two rounds. This probably makes more sense if Bynum is off the floor, but the Suns could try to force the matchup and see whether their spacing and speed offset the Lakers' size.
Regardless, the one defensive area most likely to vex the Suns isn't up front but rather on the wing against Kobe Bryant. Although Bryant's physical condition remains a question -- the L.A. Times reported that he recently had fluid drained from his sore knee -- few players are better at competing effectively when less than 100 percent physically.
Additionally, Bryant's presence threatens to take Barbosa out of the series. The Suns' dynamic backup guard stands only 6-3 and could play only if either Bryant or Ron Artest is resting, lest he be savaged on the blocks.
Instead, Hill, Richardson and Dudley should all get turns checking Bryant, with Hill likely getting the first crack. Although in theory this should work out well -- putting size on Bryant is usually the best alternative because it takes away his post game -- Kobe ripped Phoenix to shreds in four regular-season meetings. The Gasol-Bynum combo didn't overly trouble the Suns, but Bryant went off against them, averaging 27.5 points per game on 54.4 percent shooting. The Suns need to keep him under control to win.
Fortunately for the Suns, they don't need to play great D to win the series; an average performance probably will get the job done. For all the talk about how Phoenix learned how to play defense, it was only 19th in defensive efficiency in the regular season, which was worse than Mike D'Antoni's maligned teams. (Everyone forgets this, but those Suns once had tough-as-nails Raja Bell at shooting guard and one of the league's most versatile defenders in Shawn Marion.)
Although Phoenix's defensive numbers improved sharply in the second half of the season, it's still the insanely efficient offense that wins games for the Suns. L.A.'s airtight defense is likely to make life a bit more difficult for Phoenix on that front, especially if veteran Derek Fisher can use his Jedi tricks to keep Nash under control.
Nonetheless, the prevailing story from this series will be the Suns' dizzying array of offensive weapons and how difficult it is for opponents to plug every hole in the dike against such formidable skill. It should be a tough series and might hinge on two shots bouncing in or out … but at the end of it, I still think the Suns will be the ones left standing.
