Official Warriors Off Season Thread

[acidicality]

yea i'm being serious, I've seen Ibaka's name being thrown around the RealGM Warriors board like crazy.

and oh yea: Chase Budinger:

Best Case: Ray Allen

Worst Case: Kelenna Azubuike

 

[enlightened thought]

nah i kid with you Air, and yes i was being sarcastic.

but aside from games with dallas, i don't think we ever talk badly about dallas.

 

[daprescription]

Maybe thats a good thing

 

[mjdalegend]

I don't know about the dude, but when I see "work in progress", eh, we have gotten those alot before.

But then again, some scouting reports are a joke.

 

[japanair21]

Damn that from DraftExpress? or where? Dude's stay hating on the Dubs.

 

[acidicality]

Originally Posted by daprescription

Maybe thats a good thing

my point was they haven't watched azubuike enough....Budinger isn't that great at all. At his worst, he'd be much worse thanKelenna. Chase just stays shootin J's all day and rarely takes it to the rim.

 

[mjdalegend]

[h2]Ellis, Biedrins salary FAQ: Max Warriors offer for either would be 6 years, $98.5M (or slightly more)[/h2]By Tim Kawakami
* IMPORTANT NOTE: They won't get the max. Obviously. But the parameters are always crucial to know, at least for me. These are the parameters.

If I had to guess, I'd say Monta Ellis' value is something like 6 years, $58M. Biedrins might be 6 years and $50M. Now we'll see.

This one had me scratching my head, I'll be honest. It took me hitting the books, calling around, meditating at the foot of a David Stern portrait, and using every ounce of mathematical sense that had not dissipated from my brain years ago.

Question: What's the maximum the Warriors can offer their valuable young restricted free agents, Monta Ellis and Andris Biedrins?

After coming up with several wrong answers off the top of my head and several more wrong ones after some CBA research and then getting a voila moment that reminded me of a college statistics final I almost bombed-but saved at the end… here's my answer:

* The maximum the Warriors can offer Ellis and Biedrins is the same: 6 years, $98.5M. (Based on a salary cap of $54M. It could go higher.)

* The maximum any team other than the Warriors can offer Ellis and Biedrins: 5 years, $75.2M.

Now I'm not saying either player will receive anything close to those figures, though Ellis might come close enough to $75M that nobody will be weeping in the Ellis household.

The point is, the Warriors have large built-in advantages with both players. The NBA's CBA is built to encourage re-signing with a player's existing team and the Warriors carry all of those advantages, plus the right to match any offers, with Biedrins and Ellis.

Chris Mullin is playing it right, too, by declaring that he'll match any offer for either. That doesn't ruin his leverage-actually, it'll probably help leverage the Ellis and Biedrins deals down in value. (MORE ON THAT LATER.)

First, let's clarify some things and again, I pray I have it right but I'm pretty sure I do:

-Along with everybody else, I'd assumed that longest deal from the Warriors that Ellis and Biedrins could receive would be for 5 years. That's wrong.

They can both get 6 years from the Warriors and I'd bet they both get 6 years. Book it.

Last year, along with the rest of his 2004 1st-round draft class, Biedrins only could've received a 5-year deal (because he still had this year's contract in place and you can only be under contract for a total of 6 years at any time).

That's how it gets confusing. Dwight Howard got 5 years, $84M. Kevin Martin got 5 years, $55M. Why not 6 years? It's because they signed last summer, not this summer.

This summer, neither Biedrins nor Ellis (who was a 2nd-rounder in 2005, so he 3 years on his rookie deal) are under contract, so they can sign for 6 years from the Warriors.

Also, the Warriors get the added edge of being able to offer both players 10.5% raises each year-other teams can only offer 8% raises. That really, really adds up. (Just check the difference in the Warriors/opponents max offers listed above.)

-Since they both have "Bird rights," the Warriors can re-sign either player above and beyond salary-cap restrictions, up to the maximum salary for their time of service.

The CBA says either $9M or 25% of the cap, whichever's larger. 25% of $54M is larger, so…

Biedrins and Ellis can both receive a 2008-2009 salary of $13M (exact figure pending NBA cap adjustments).

Again, neither will start that high (Dwight Howard and Al Jefferson did last summer, and their extensions kick in this July 1), but that's just to give you an idea of how high it could go.

-The Warriors could shut down all discussions for either player by offering what is termed, nicely, a "maximum qualifying offer," and, as I've explained, that would be 6 years, $98.5M for both. Any MQO for a restricted F/A gives the home team major rights, but again, very MQOs are unlikely in these two cases.

But let's put it this way: If Mullin makes an offer anywhere near those numbers to either player, this game is over. There will be no other offers from other teams.

-If Ellis and Biedrins find a team far enough under the cap to offer them something more or better than the Warriors do, the Warriors would have seven days to match the offer or let the player go.

-Repeat: Mullin's stance that he will under every circumstance keep Ellis and Biedrins is a smart tactical move.

It doesn't mean it's an absolute blood-on-contract guarantee.

For instance, Memphis and Philly right now are the only two teams with enough cap space to make a bold free agent play. If one of those teams offers Biedrins or Ellis 5 years, $65M, I'd say there's a 50-50 shot that Mullin does not match.

But 2 things for Memphis or Philly in such a scenario:

1) Why would you be willing to give up all of your hard-earned cap room for either player? You'd have to think on that one.

2) Even if you're willing to go that high, why would you freeze yourself during the July player movement hurly-burly, sit and wait a week for Mullin's decision (with the offer sheet terms sitting on your cap), when he's semi-likely to match anything you toss out there, anyway?

It's basically the same stance Mullin took with Mickael Pietrus during his restricted F/A summer last year-I'll match anything and I won't do a sign-and-trade (for teams over the cap) unless I'm totally happy with the package I get back.

End result: No deal, Pietrus returns for his qualifying offer.

That won't happen with Ellis and Biedrins, because Mullin obviously wants both very badly to stay Warriors. They'll get plenty from the Warriors, whether or not they have an offer sheet waiting or teams hoping for a sign-and-trade.

-Other notes: Outside offers have to be for at least two years or more. Basically, you can't draw the Warriors into matching a one-year deal which would make Ellis and Biedrins unrestricted F/As next summer.

-If the Warriors chose to just retain their rights with a regular qualifying offer (125% raise for Ellis, $3.6M for Biedrins), either player could take that and play out next season to become unrestricted next summer.

That's very unlikely. They both want to stay in Oakland. They both could get large money for the long-term. Why risk a short-term deal when you already have what you like?

 

[paul is on tilt]

^ That's a good thing. No other team can offer more the the Warriors for these two young players. I just hope we don't overpay them. I mean they'regood, but let's offer them something that's worth what they are. Remember, Cohan wants to be under the cap so Mullin better do his job.

 

[acidicality]

I can see Memphis making a serious run at Monta, but I think he understands he's in a much better situation in Golden St., where he's in a system wherehe can thrive.

 

[japanair21]

Originally Posted by acidicality

I can see Memphis making a serious run at Monta, but I think he understands he's in a much better situation in Golden St., where he's in a system where he can thrive.

I agree to an extent, but Memphis has a lot of flexibility this off-season, they could pull some strings, unload some more money, and sign a few FA's,get a good draft pick, then Memphis could look a lot more interesting.

 

[acidicality]

i think memphis could compete again very soon-well hell it wouldn't be out of the question if EVERY team in the West became competitive. Seattle hasrebuilt in a nice way, Memphis isn't too far behind, and Minnesota is a few players away. The Clippers are a contender when healthy; the Kings have niceplayers and only need a couple more pieces to be in the playoff hunt

In the 09-10 season, I don't think that's out of the question that all teams will be competitive...barring any major injuries/setbacks.

But if Monta doesn't re-sign with the Warriors, I'll stop posting on NT.*



*JA EXCEPTION ACTIVATED

 

[japanair21]

Originally Posted by acidicality

i think memphis could compete again very soon-well hell it wouldn't be out of the question if EVERY team in the West became competitive. Seattle has rebuilt in a nice way, Memphis isn't too far behind, and Minnesota is a few players away. The Clippers are a contender when healthy; the Kings have nice players and only need a couple more pieces to be in the playoff hunt

In the 09-10 season, I don't think that's out of the question that all teams will be competitive...barring any major injuries/setbacks.

But if Monta doesn't re-sign with the Warriors, I'll stop posting on NT.*



*JA EXCEPTION ACTIVATED

I like how I have my own exception, like a trade exception,


Cats took that deep to their hearts.

 

[acidicality]

naw, it's an exception that allows u to be a coward

 

[japanair21]

Originally Posted by acidicality

naw, it's an exception that allows u to be a coward

, at least you're stooping down to my level.

 

[in the line for viis]

Warriors faithful, does anyone know around what month single-game tickets usually go on sale?

 

[vietsta4o8]

please do not draft kevin love

 

[daprescription]

RISE UP
. . . . . . & BELIEVE!

 

[lazyj10]

Originally Posted by In The Line For VIIs

Warriors faithful, does anyone know around what month single-game tickets usually go on sale?

Isn't it October?
That's what I think I remember...may be wrong, but I'd imagine a safe window is Sept - Oct.

 

[andrew630]

how about javelle mcgee....nba comparisons, patrick o bryant, andrew bynum

 

[sohi 23]

Originally Posted by Andrew630

javelle mcgee....nba comparisons, patrick o bryant

 

[acidicality]

from biedrins' blog on warriors.com

I really like it here in Golden State, having been here already four years. I really have everything set-up here, not only basketball things but, you know, life. I love the area and the city and everything, so I would like to stay here for as long as I can.

 

[daddychill]

^beans.

a keeper for sure.

 

[dont be a menace]

Originally Posted by daprescription

RISE UP
. . . . . . & BELIEVE!

word, i just saw it too when i turned it on.

SMH at it being yellow too

 

[paul is on tilt]

Originally Posted by acidicality

from biedrins' blog on warriors.com

I really like it here in Golden State, having been here already four years. I really have everything set-up here, not only basketball things but, you know, life. I love the area and the city and everything, so I would like to stay here for as long as I can.

Andris sounds sincere.

 

[nothingtol0se]

is anyone else rooting for the jazz? I really like how they're built. They're disciplined and they play smart.



but uhmm....i'll still dislike their fans