Notice that a variety of indicators are used to confirm that the trend has changed. As a trader, you may choose how many confirmation indicators you wish to use. The fewer confirmation indicators used, the higher the risk and the higher the reward (in the sense that, the longer you wait for confirmation, the less potential gain there will be for you to capture), and vice versa.
The rules to using the ESM are as follows:
- The stock price must first rapidly decline on high volume.
- A volume spike will occur, creating a new low, and appear to reverse the trend. Look for candlestick patterns showing a struggle between buyers and sellers here (i.e. cross patterns or engulfings).
- A higher low wave must occur.
- A break of the predominant downward trendline must occur.
- The 40 and/or 50-day moving averages must be broken.
- The 40 and/or 50-day moving average must then be retested and hold.
Note that you may use other moving averages - ideally, ones that connects highs or lows. Typically, a break of a larger moving average is more indicative of a trend break than smaller moving averages.
As you can see, the ESM combines several techniques to ensure that the trend has changed for the long term.