Official NBA 2012-2013 Season Thread

[big j 33]

Complain about the thread being terrible this year but proceed to go back and forth with a known raging homer who hasn't had a smart post in seven years about a playoff series from two years ago. Makes perfect sense.

Seriously.

Don't engage with ACBoyz, it's not worth it.

 

[antidope]

Proof that the Spurs have gotten better defensively

I could understand wanting to guide Favors and Kanter into more playing time instead of just throwing them into the fire. Make them learn a role from two good players, then let them have at it.

These Spurs Aren't The Same

Last season’s San Antonio Spurs had the best record in the Western Conference at 50-16. This season’s Spurs have the best record in the Western Conference at 52-16. It’s basically the same roster with almost the same exact record.

But it’s not the same team, really. And this Spurs team is better suited to win a championship.

Earlier this month at the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference, Spurs general manager R.C. Buford was asked about how open-minded Spurs coach Gregg Popovich is in regard to analytics. Buford noted how Popovich liked how the numbers often confirmed his basketball beliefs, like the importance of corner 3-pointers. And then Buford talked about how the Spurs dug into the numbers in the offseason to see how they can get better defensively.

“This summer, we looked at our defensive efficiency, which for years had been very high. And last year, we went in the 10-15 range. And I think we were valuing some things that weren’t nearly as important as the data showed us. We learned from the Celtics.

“While they were really high in defensive efficiency, they weren’t very high in defensive rebounding. And that was a big part of where our emphasis was, and it made us question is that really where we should be paying attention. And those were discussions that were then brought to Pop from our coaches and from our analytics team. And some great discussions came from that, that ended up having us reevaluate what was important to us.”

The Spurs ranked 11th defensively, allowing 100.6 points per 100 possessions, last season. But that wasn’t just a single step backward for the their defense. When you compare their defensive efficiency with the league average, they had actually regressed each of the last eight years.

Spurs defense, previous nine seasons



DefRtg = Points allowed per 100 possessions

Now, the 2003-04 Spurs were one of the best defensive teams in NBA history, allowing 8.5 points per 100 possessions fewer than the league average. So there was nowhere to go but down. And San Antonio continued to rank in the top three on that end for four more seasons, winning championships in 2005 and 2007.

But continuous regression over the years led them to eventually drop out of the top 10 defensively, which is not where you want to be if you want to contend for a championship. Of the last 22 teams to make The Finals, only one – the 2005-06 Mavs – wasn’t a top 10 defensive team in the regular season. Six of the 22 ranked outside of the top 10 offensively.

The Spurs’ identity changed quite a bit over the years. And while they certainly became more enjoyable to watch as they improved offensively – they ranked No. 1 in offensive efficiency last season – they became less qualified to win a championship. So a change was needed to stop their downward defensive trend.
Better to be good at the right things than great at the wrong things

Better to be good at the right things than great at the wrong things

There are four factors that effect efficiency on either side of the ball: Shooting, rebounding, turnovers and free throws. Last year, both the Celtics and Spurs were top five in two of those four categories defensively, but Boston was a much better defensive team overall, allowing over five points per 100 possessions fewer than San Antonio.

Celtics and Spurs defense, 2011-12



OppeFG% = Opponent effective field goal percentage = (FGM + (0.5 * 3PM)) / FGA
DREB% = Percentage of available defensive rebounds obtained
OppTmTOV% = Opponent turnovers per 100 possessions
OppFTA Rate = FTA/FGA

The Spurs were an excellent defensive rebounding team and did a great job of keeping their opponents off the free-throw line. But there’s a much stronger correlation between DefRtg and OppeFG% than there is between DefRtg and any of the other three factors. The most important thing you can do defensively is make your opponent miss shots from the field. And the Spurs just didn’t do that well enough.

So, using the Celtics for comparison, Popovich and crew went back to the drawing board, knowing they needed to adjust their defensive priorities. Contesting shots became the new focus, even if it meant more fouls or fewer rebounds.

And being more aggressive in challenging shots is logical, because league-wide free throw rate has dropped each of the last seven seasons and is now at its lowest mark (0.271) since the 1973-74 season. Whether it’s because teams are taking more threes or because fouls are being called differently the last few years, there’s less risk in contesting shots than there was 10 years ago.

More contested shots = better defense

The Spurs’ plan has worked. While they’ve regressed a little in both defensive rebounding percentage and opponent free throw rate, they’ve jumped from 11th to third in defensive efficiency, because they’ve defended shots better and forced more turnovers.

Spurs defense, last two seasons



What’s interesting is that the Spurs’ defense isn’t forcing less efficient shots. Their opponents are actually taking a greater percentage of their shots from the restricted area and the corners (the most efficient shots on the floor) than they did last season.

But San Antonio is defending most areas of the floor better than they did last year. In particular, they’re defending the paint much better.

Spurs’ opponent FG%, by area, last two seasons



The key ingredient comes from Brazil

A big key has been the improvement from Tiago Splitter, who has been the full-time starter next to Tim Duncan since mid-December, and whose minutes have increased about 5 1/2 minutes per game from last season.

With Duncan and Splitter on the floor together, Spurs opponents have shot just 43.7 percent in the paint. That’s the lowest mark for any two-man combination that has defended at least 500 paint shots all season.

Lowest opponent FG% in the paint, two-man combinations



Minimum 500 FGA

The Spurs’ defense has allowed a measly 91.9 points per 100 possessions in the 648 minutes that Duncan and Splitter have shared the floor this season and just 87.4 in 477 minutes with Duncan, Splitter and Kawhi Leonard on the floor. That’s a ridiculously good defensive trio.

Opponents have scored 95.3 in Splitter’s 1,662 minutes total. Only five players who have logged at least 1,000 minutes (two for Memphis, two for Indiana and the Clippers’ Lamar Odom) have a lower on-court DefRtg.

It may all come down to defending OKC

Overall, this season’s San Antonio defense is 4.2 points per 100 possessions better than the league average. So they’ve finally reversed their eight-year, downward trend and are playing their best defense in five seasons.

Allowing 1.9 fewer points per 100 possessions than last season, the Spurs are the sixth most improved defensive team in the league. And while five other teams have made bigger jumps, the Spurs’ improvement could ultimately be the most important, because they already had a championship-caliber offense and it was on the defensive end of the floor where they lost the final four games of last year’s Western Conference finals.

In the regular season last year, 15 teams defended the Oklahoma City Thunder better than the Spurs, who allowed OKC to score 105.9 points per 100 possessions in their three regular season meetings and 110.4 in the playoffs. This year, only one team has defended the Thunder better.

Best defense vs. Oklahoma City, 2012-13



OffRtg = Points scored per 100 possessions
NetRtg = Point differential per 100 possessions

Oklahoma City has an effective field goal percentage of just 45 percent against the Spurs this season, down from 52 percent in last season’s nine total meetings. In particular, Russell Westbrook and Thabo Sefolosha have shot much worse against the Spurs than they did last season. Westbrook has shot just 5-for-16 in the paint with Splitter on the floor this season.

Splitter played just 53 minutes in last year’s conference finals, 10th most on the Spurs and 94 fewer than Boris Diaw. But he played 34 minutes in the Spurs’ 105-93 victory over the Thunder on March 11, and was a plus-24. OKC scored 41 points in his 14 minutes on the bench, but just 52 in his 34 minutes on the floor.

The Spurs’ defense against quality opponents goes far beyond their three games against the Thunder. In games played between current Western Conference playoff teams, San Antonio has been much better defensively than any of the other seven, including the Grizzlies, who rank second in defensive efficiency overall.

Best defense, games played between current West playoff teams



Tony Parker could return from his sprained ankle on Friday, when the Spurs host the Jazz. With Manu Ginobili playing more consistently of late, San Antonio looks to be at full strength in control of the No. 1 seed in the West once again. And more important than what they’re doing offensively is how well they’ve defended this season.

So dismiss the Spurs as a regular season team at your own peril. They may seem like the same team on the surface, but the numbers tell a much different story.

Link

I also echoed similar sentiments earlier in this thread: http://niketalk.com/t/507195/official-nba-2012-2013-season-thread/34830#post_17288990

You watch them play and you can see that theyre better defensively, but its nice to have the stats too.

 

[trynafeelmink]

We shall see considering the playoffs are coming up soon... but i just can't have complete faith in that squad in the playoffs if they are depending on ROLE players to have big series in order to win. Against OKC they have no answers for Durant or Westbrook, and that's not going to change. Westbrook on the other hand can and will slow down TP

 

[va757va]

i got laughed at when i said rodman > bosh...

mark jackson on the dan patrick show just told dan it was unfair to compare bosh to rodman...

beep beep...

 

[T0INE]

Complain about the thread being terrible this year but proceed to go back and forth with a known raging homer who hasn't had a smart post in seven years about a playoff series from two years ago. Makes perfect sense.

Preach.

The dudes who constantly get roped into these pointless, never ending arguments are just as bad as the people who instigate them.

 

[markangelo]

It's crazy how one first round exit just totally changes people's perception of what a contender is. Using stuff more than half a decade old to build a case for what's going on presently when the make up of the team and the coaching style is completely different is simply asinine. Not to mention this team just went to the WCF last year.


The team that went to the WCF last year and only got better us somehow fools gold, yet the other team that went and then got worse isn't. I see...

Good game by the warriors last night though that's really impressive.

Don't want to be that dude but i thought warriors was and is the better TEAM of the two, regardless of individual players accolades, titles, percentages, capabilities, etc. So I think that the win was coming...Hmm, utah, dallas, and lakers.. lakers/spurs... lakers in 6 come at me 

 

[trynafeelmink]

i got laughed at when i said rodman > bosh...

mark jackson on the dan patrick show just told dan it was unfair to compare bosh to rodman...




beep beep...

I think people get confused when it goes to skillsets & actual impact... Bosh has a much better skill set but Rodman was probablt the best rebounder ever and one of the greatest defenders ever his IMPACT> BOSH

IMO once 2014 roles around Bosh is easily the one getting replaced because his impact on the team can easily be replaced by someone of a smaller stature.

 

[quik1987]

So were not gonna talk about how Kobe was 11/27, and 2/10 from 3?

 

[markangelo]

i got laughed at when i said rodman > bosh...

mark jackson on the dan patrick show just told dan it was unfair to compare bosh to rodman...

beep beep...

Offense

Bosh>Rodman

Defense

Rodman>Bosh

x-factor

TIE

 

[antidope]

We shall see considering the playoffs are coming up soon... but i just can't have complete faith in that squad in the playoffs if they are depending on ROLE players to have big series in order to win. Against OKC they have no answers for Durant or Westbrook, and that's not going to change. Westbrook on the other hand can and will slow down TP

Last time we played them we locked down Russell. We have two good wing defenders (Parker and Leonard) to slow Russell and KD down, not to mention they both have obvious tells so it wont be hard to predict what theyre going to do and send the appropriate help. Harden was the catalyst and now that hes gone I dont see OKC having much of a chance.

It's crazy how one first round exit just totally changes people's perception of what a contender is. Using stuff more than half a decade old to build a case for what's going on presently when the make up of the team and the coaching style is completely different is simply asinine. Not to mention this team just went to the WCF last year.


The team that went to the WCF last year and only got better us somehow fools gold, yet the other team that went and then got worse isn't. I see...

Good game by the warriors last night though that's really impressive.

Don't want to be that dude but i thought warriors was and is the better TEAM of the two, regardless of individual players accolades, titles, percentages, capabilities, etc. So I think that the win was coming...Hmm, utah, dallas, and lakers.. lakers/spurs... lakers in 6 come at me 

I agree, the Warriors are definitely better than the Lakers. I was more impressed with the way that they won. It was an absolute beatdown

 

[markangelo]

I think people get confused when it goes to skillsets & actual impact... Bosh has a much better skill set but Rodman was probablt the best rebounder ever and one of the greatest defenders ever his IMPACT> BOSH

IMO once 2014 roles around Bosh is easily the one getting replaced because his impact on the team can easily be replaced by someone of a smaller stature.

I think Bill Russell is the greatest rebounder ever, that's just me tho.. i think he got like over .500 rebs/minute in his career or something.. 

 

[suberzat1]

So were not gonna talk about how Kobe was 11/27, and 2/10 from 3?

Nope! let's keep the thread moving

 

[mister friendly]

I think people get confused when it goes to skillsets & actual impact... Bosh has a much better skill set but Rodman was probablt the best rebounder ever and one of the greatest defenders ever his IMPACT> BOSH

IMO once 2014 roles around Bosh is easily the one getting replaced because his impact on the team can easily be replaced by someone of a smaller stature.

That's just a dumb statement

Yeah you're gonna find a big who has a great mid range game, can post and run the pick and roll. And somebody who can play good to great defense too.

Do you actually watch the games or do you just skim thru box scores?!?

 

[solarius49]

I think people get confused when it goes to skillsets

I think Bill Russell is the greatest rebounder ever, that's just me tho.. i think he got like over .500 rebs/minute in his career or something.. 

so much this

 

[mister friendly]

So were not gonna talk about how Kobe was 11/27, and 2/10 from 3?

Nobodys talking about it because about 4 of those shots were desperation shots.

He really just had an average night shooting the ball. It's like saying Curry had a bad shooting night when if you actually watched the game, you'd know he had a great night

 

[jesusshuttlesworth34]

Ray had foresight to leave that sinking ship!

You mad KG????




Yeah, you mad.

 

[T0INE]

i got laughed at when i said rodman > bosh...

mark jackson on the dan patrick show just told dan it was unfair to compare bosh to rodman...




beep beep...

I think people get confused when it goes to skillsets & actual impact... Bosh has a much better skill set but Rodman was probablt the best rebounder ever and one of the greatest defenders ever his IMPACT> BOSH

IMO once 2014 roles around Bosh is easily the one getting replaced because his impact on the team can easily be replaced by someone of a smaller stature.

How exactly is a PF that is a very good mid-range shooter, and can occasionally knock down 3s, who also helps create driving lanes for LeBron and D-Wade because the man defending him is forced to go out on the perimeter to guard him easily replaceable by a smaller player?

 

[licensed to ball]

So were not gonna talk about how Kobe was 11/27, and 2/10 from 3?

Nope! let's keep the thread moving

my new favorite NT'er

 

[denni5themenace]

that kid wall cooked last night

 

[markangelo]

told ya, CP3 level 

 

[mronegative]

Do you even understand what CP3 level is?

 

[mgrand15]

We shall see considering the playoffs are coming up soon... but i just can't have complete faith in that squad in the playoffs if they are depending on ROLE players to have big series in order to win. Against OKC they have no answers for Durant or Westbrook, and that's not going to change. Westbrook on the other hand can and will slow down TP

Well, without Harden, OKC is going to have to depend on role players as well. You can't win with just two guys. With Harden, they literally could carry the scoring load but now, someone else has to step up.

Yeah, Russ and KD are important but Fisher, Perkins, Martin, Thabo and Collison will play a huge part too. Fisher and Perk playing too many minutes can definitely be the difference when playing a stacked squad like the Spurs.

 

[markangelo]

Do you even understand what CP3 level is?

again, I'm kidding lol

 

[va757va]

How exactly is a PF that is a very good mid-range shooter, and can occasionally knock down 3s, who also helps create driving lanes for LeBron and D-Wade because the man defending him is forced to go out on the perimeter to guard him easily replaceable by a smaller player?

it can easily be replaced by the endless number of 'stretch bigs' in the league...alot of big men can average 16 and 7...ESPECIALLY on that heat team...

you cant replace 16 boards a game, very good d, and endless hustle plays...

i think ty put it perfectly, something i said myself last week....rodmans IMPACT to the 3peat>>>> Bosh impact right now...

 

[jumpmanfromdabay]

Andrew Bogut playing like he's 100%