- 24,717
- 436
- Joined
- Mar 3, 2006
I really hate these Carmelo rumors that just stoke the fire. Ain't no way dude comes to Dallas.
Follow along with the video below to see how to install our site as a web app on your home screen.
Note: this_feature_currently_requires_accessing_site_using_safari
[/h3][h3]Houston a player for Mayo?[/h3]
2:20PM ET
[h5]O.J. Mayo | Grizzlies [/h5]
Memphis' O.J. Mayo has come up as a possible trade chip for the team.
And according to Ken Berger of CBS Sports, some around the league believe the Rockets could be a potential suitor.
"Some of the Grizzlies' focus remains on trying to move Mayo for a more traditional two-guard; some execs believe the Rockets' Courtney Lee would make sense, with the wild card being how highly Houston GM Daryl Morey regards Mayo. The Grizzlies have indicated that they don't want to give up Mayo without getting back a player who can help them down the stretch this season and an asset that can help them in the future."
The Bulls have also been linked to Mayo, but it's likely they'd be unwilling to give up the assets the Grizzlies would be seeking in return.
The Lakers have also been tossed out as a possible suitor, as Mayo's scoring punch could lighten the load for Kobe Bryant in the regular season as he ages.
-- Ryan Corazza
[h5]ESPN's Marc Stein[/h5]
Lakers have interest in Mayo
"Lakers do want Mayo, but lack means to get him."
"Ford plays selfishly but he'd be an upgrade talent-wise and he could get them running, where they're lethal. Pacers wouldn't want much in return, either, but getting contract money to match could be an issue."
"The Rockets remain on the fringes of the Western Conference playoff chase, but their interest in Anthony is for the long term. As a result, his reluctance to ink an extension has to weight heavily on any potential offer they would make. If Houston really wants to, it could bowl Denver over with a great offer -- centered, ironically, on a draft pick they're owed by the Knicks. Yao Ming's insured, expiring contract would also be in the deal, as would a couple of younger assets (likely Budinger and impressive rookie Patrick Patterson). But that's a hefty price to pay if Anthony will leave anyway after the season, and it's likely given the Rockets enough pause to move on to other alternatives."
"Although they've tried hard to trade Hamilton, there isn't a huge market for him -- if they can get some cap relief for him, they'll be happy."
"Latest Detroit rumble [from Feb. 2]: Pistons still trying to move Rip with no success."
[/h3][h3]Houston a player for Mayo?[/h3]
2:20PM ET
[h5]O.J. Mayo | Grizzlies [/h5]
Memphis' O.J. Mayo has come up as a possible trade chip for the team.
And according to Ken Berger of CBS Sports, some around the league believe the Rockets could be a potential suitor.
"Some of the Grizzlies' focus remains on trying to move Mayo for a more traditional two-guard; some execs believe the Rockets' Courtney Lee would make sense, with the wild card being how highly Houston GM Daryl Morey regards Mayo. The Grizzlies have indicated that they don't want to give up Mayo without getting back a player who can help them down the stretch this season and an asset that can help them in the future."
The Bulls have also been linked to Mayo, but it's likely they'd be unwilling to give up the assets the Grizzlies would be seeking in return.
The Lakers have also been tossed out as a possible suitor, as Mayo's scoring punch could lighten the load for Kobe Bryant in the regular season as he ages.
-- Ryan Corazza
[h5]ESPN's Marc Stein[/h5]
Lakers have interest in Mayo
"Lakers do want Mayo, but lack means to get him."
"Ford plays selfishly but he'd be an upgrade talent-wise and he could get them running, where they're lethal. Pacers wouldn't want much in return, either, but getting contract money to match could be an issue."
"The Rockets remain on the fringes of the Western Conference playoff chase, but their interest in Anthony is for the long term. As a result, his reluctance to ink an extension has to weight heavily on any potential offer they would make. If Houston really wants to, it could bowl Denver over with a great offer -- centered, ironically, on a draft pick they're owed by the Knicks. Yao Ming's insured, expiring contract would also be in the deal, as would a couple of younger assets (likely Budinger and impressive rookie Patrick Patterson). But that's a hefty price to pay if Anthony will leave anyway after the season, and it's likely given the Rockets enough pause to move on to other alternatives."
"Although they've tried hard to trade Hamilton, there isn't a huge market for him -- if they can get some cap relief for him, they'll be happy."
"Latest Detroit rumble [from Feb. 2]: Pistons still trying to move Rip with no success."
Just eight shopping days left, everyone.
The NBA trade deadline is next Thursday, which means the season-long drama of "Where Will Melo Go?" finally will conclude ... we think. After all, it's possible the Nuggets keep him at the trade deadline and this whole debate reignites before the draft.
In the meantime, it's getting awfully difficult to separate truth from fiction, as various parties to the Melo Sweepstakes leak their own versions of reality to the media. All that's clear is Melo's desired endgame -- to land a maximum contract extension, and to land it as a member of the Knicks. Nobody is sure which of the two priorities ranks higher, and that's the most important domino. Certainly, it's a tricky game he's playing. We've never seen a player issue a trade demand before and then exclude all but one team from his list of approved destinations.
[h4]Melo Slot Machine[/h4]
Where will Carmelo Anthony end up?
Melo Slot Machine
To assess where things stand, we took a straw poll among our writers and developed a "Carmelo slot machine" for folks to roll the dice on where he lands. You'll notice that each spin essentially plays the sweepstakes eight times, saving you the trouble of hitting the button over and over until your team gets Melo. (Well, unless you're a Wolves fan. Then you might be here awhile.)
For posterity's sake, I'll relate that my first spin landed four Knicks and four Nuggets, which is a fairly likely outcome for this tool. Our writers gave Melo nearly a 50-50 chance of landing in New York, and nearly 1-in-3 odds of remaining in Denver. Five other teams remain in the race, however tangentially.
Let's break it down and see the how and why of Melo's potential post-deadline landing spots:
[h3]New York (48 percent)[/h3]
Still the leader in the clubhouse, as the Knicks seem confident that Melo will refuse to sign an extension anyplace else. Thus, New York has been reluctant to include many good assets in a trade with the Nuggets.
Under the current cap rules, the Knicks are in position to sign Anthony over the summer, but that's a risk -- depending on the new salary cap regime, they might not be able to easily do so. That's especially true if the owners add a "franchise tag" to the new agreement. As a result, the Knicks have an incentive to get a deal done sooner rather than later.
They still hold most of the cards, however, unless Anthony relents on extending with another team. Eddy Curry's expiring contract would be the salary-cap ballast, but the assets Denver wants are young players and picks -- say, any two among Danilo Gallinari, Landry Fields and Wilson Chandler, and whatever first-rounder New York can get for Anthony Randolph.
New York papers also report the possibility of Chauncey Billups being lumped into the deal and Raymond Felton going to Denver as part of the trade. It makes sense, but semantics could get in the way: Gallinari, Felton and Curry for Billups and Anthony doesn't work under the cap. The Knicks would have to include Timofey Mozgov, Ronny Turiaf or Kelenna Azubuike, or add both Wilson Chandler and Roger Mason to the deal.
From my perspective, adding Chandler to the deal is far more palatable for New York than dealing Gallinari, as Chandler plays the same position as Anthony and New York wouldn't be able to re-sign him this summer if it wanted to clear enough cap space to sign Melo. (Again, this assumes current cap rules carry over.)
In the end, it's New York's patience that has caused this affair to drag on so long. Putting two and two together, one suspects a lot of the leaks we've heard thus far are efforts by Anthony's camp to force New York's hand.
[h3]Denver (30 percent)[/h3]
Might the Nuggets hang on to Melo? I've argued for a while that this is their best alternative, but their play of late has to give pause. Denver is just a half-game ahead of Memphis, which sits in ninth position in the Western Conference -- that means the nightmare scenario looms in which the Nuggets keep Anthony, miss the playoffs anyway and still lose him in the offseason. If they keep him they'll probably make it (especially if Rudy Gay's shoulder injury Tuesday night turns out to be serious), but it's a risk.
The really interesting part is that the Melo madness appears to be affecting the rest of the Nuggets far more than Melo himself. Watching Houston rout Denver on Monday provided a good example -- virtually all Houston's points came on the opposite side of the court form Anthony, and the Nuggets' bench was blown off the floor.
Believe it or not, the three Nuggets with the best adjusted plus-minus this season are Anthony, Nene and J.R. Smith -- the three free-agents-to-be you'd expect to be most checked-out in the current situation. (Nene, I should mention, did treat himself to several birds-eye views of Houston buckets, most notably an inexcusable Chase Budinger romp down main street for a video-game dunk. Defensively, this was not his finest hour.)
Nonetheless, today's Playoff Odds give the current edition of the Nuggets just a 74 percent chance of making the playoffs -- which isn't good enough to justify the risk of having those three players bolt after the season.
In other words, Denver would need an information advantage to justify this strategy -- if they knew for a fact that Anthony values an extension more than a trade, for instance, this would be the route to go. At the very least, if the Nuggets knew Nene would stay no matter what they'd be more secure taking this path, but we haven't heard any indication that's the case.
[h3]New Jersey (10 percent)[/h3]
This may seem high since the Nets announced to the world they were no longer pursuing an Anthony trade, but the suspicion lurks that New Jersey is ready to dive back in once the Nuggets stop vacillating and play ball. New Jersey still has by far the best package to offer Denver -- rookie Derrick Favors, multiple first-round picks and the expiring contract of Troy Murphy -- but it's never been clear if Anthony considers a year on the good side of the Hudson, followed by a move to Brooklyn, reasonably "New York" enough to sign an extension.
Ultimately, however, the reason to give the Nets a puncher's chance is a simple one -- if they're interested in winning the bidding, they definitely have the best offer.
[h3]L.A. Lakers (6 percent)[/h3]
One presumes Anthony would agree to an extension with the Lakers, even if it put him even farther from home than Denver. An added two hours of flying time appears to be a small price for joining a championship-caliber core and regaling in the spotlight of the league's most popular team.
Whether L.A. would agree to send Andrew Bynum to Denver in a trade is an item for much heavier debate. The Lakers have said emphatically that they wouldn't, but that was before this week's disastrous trip through Orlando and Charlotte. If L.A. somehow loses to Cleveland on Wednesday, look for the fires of Bynum-Anthony rumors to flare up again.
[h3]Houston (3 percent)[/h3]
The Rockets remain on the fringes of the Western Conference playoff chase, but their interest in Anthony is for the long term. As a result, his reluctance to ink an extension has to weight heavily on any potential offer they would make.
If Houston really wants to, it could bowl Denver over with a great offer -- centered, ironically, on a draft pick they're owed by the Knicks. Yao Ming's insured, expiring contract would also be in the deal, as would a couple of younger assets (likely Budinger and impressive rookie Patrick Patterson). But that's a hefty price to pay if Anthony will leave anyway after the season, and it's likely given the Rockets enough pause to move on to other alternatives.
[h3]Dallas (2 percent)[/h3]
Unlike Houston, Dallas would happily roll the dice on renting Anthony and hoping he could provide the missing link in their decade-long quest to get Dirk Nowitzki a ring.
The problem here is one of assets. Dallas is basically offering Rodrigue Beaubois, Caron Butler's expiring contract and whatever other scraps they can pull into a deal (Dominique Jones? A future first-rounder? Mark Cuban's seat on the basketball analytics panel at the Sloan Sports Conference?), a hand that is unlikely to trump what's on the table from New York and the other suitors listed above. In fact, Denver would probably turn down that offer even if none of the other offers existed. Somehow, the Mavs need to find a way to sweeten the pot to have a realistic shot
[h3]Chicago (1 percent)[/h3]
A Chicago-Denver trade doesn't seem very likely, even though Anthony would probably agree to an extension in Chicago, simply because the only plausible alternative -- Joakim Noah to the Nuggets -- has already been rejected out of hand by the Bulls. Denver won't take on Luol Deng's contract and the Bulls don't have any other deals on their books sizable enough to match up with Melo's contract.
Unless, that is, they were willing to put Carlos Boozer into a straight-up trade for Anthony. Just a thought. But not much of one, probably -- Melo would have to play as undersized 4 because he and Deng play the same position. No matter how you work it, in other words, this doesn't look workable.
As we head into the All-Star break, it seems an appropriate time to take a step back and evaluate the new talent that has entered the league in the past two seasons. No one can deny that each class, taken on its own merits, has been short on top-tier talent. But what about when we look at them combined?
When we consider that no fewer than nine different players are considered the likely faces of their team's future and another five play either pivotal or starting roles for playoff teams, we begin to see that the NBA has added plenty of strong players the last two summers.
Let's stack them up and rank them, not based on future performances or what they did last year, but strictly on how they have done so far this season.
Griffin
1. Blake Griffin, Clippers
Did you expect to see anyone else here? We'd have to go back to the 2008 draft to find anyone who can compete with Griffin for the top spot. If we did, he'd be notched just below Derrick Rose, Russell Westbrook and probably Kevin Love as the fourth-best player to enter the NBA in the past three years.
No one in the past two drafts comes close to matching the productivity or star power of Griffin.
Curry
2. Stephen Curry, Warriors
To my eye, he's the best player on an improving Golden State team. He can beat you with his long-range shooting, his passing and his ability to generate buckets against good defense. And none of those things are his best gift, which is his intelligence.
He was terrific last season and has been even better this season, improving in almost every metric we keep track of. His defense isn't as bad you think either. Besides, Steve Nash, who isn't known for his defense, won two MVPs. This guy is Nash all over again.
Blair
3. DeJuan Blair, Spurs
The best college rebounder to enter the NBA in years continues to pound the boards and the teams who passed on him in the 2009 draft (he went 37th overall). He's a solid starter on the league's best team and, after a rough start to the season, playing the best ball of his short career.
His great hands are not just good for rebounding in traffic, but also for stripping ball handlers and shooters attacking the rim -- he leads all bigs in steals per 48 minutes. And in a bit of irony, no player in his draft class has appeared in more games.
Ibaka
4. Serge Ibaka, Thunder
If you want to see how a player can impact a team without putting up double-doubles or huge scoring numbers, study Ibaka. Everyone sees what he does on defense (he leads all rookies and sophs in blocks), but the Thunder are also a much better offensive team when he's on the floor. He finishes over 70 percent of his shots in the paint and makes 45 percent of his pick-and-pops.
In short, he's the third-best player on one of the top 10 teams in the NBA.
Holiday
5. Jrue Holiday, 76ers
A case can be made that Philly is the league's most improved team and Holiday, who leads the Sixers in minutes played, just might be its most valuable player. He sets the stage for the team on offense and defense, ranking second in assists and fourth in steals among all first- and second-year players.
He has also proved to be a much better shooter from distance, coming up huge in the scoring department in multiple games this season. Most recently, he poured in 27 of his team's 77 points in an upset of the Spurs. A change in Philly's offense might signal less production from Holiday, however, which would likely move him down this list.
Collison
6. Darren Collison, Pacers
Collison is quietly coming on as a high-level point guard. Solid for the first half of the season, he has been terrific since the coaching change in Indiana. The Pacers have won eight of their past 10, and Collison is the steady hand at the wheel of this run.
7. Ty Lawson, Nuggets
Lawson made an impressive debut last season, and although some people thought he'd be headed for a down year as teams adjusted to his speed, he was my preseason pick to win the MIP award. While it's unlikely he'll actually win the award, he has slightly improved upon his overall production from last season and leads one of the league's best bench units.
Lawson has one of the top field goal percentages among all point guards in the NBA, thanks to good shooting and better decision-making.
Matthews
8. Wesley Matthews, Trail Blazers
After struggling from deep in November, Matthews has been hot from beyond the arc for three straight months (better than 42 percent) and more than adequate as a replacement for All-Star Brandon Roy.
One of the top stories of the season has been Portland's ability to stay in the playoff chase despite devastating injuries to two of its star players. Matthews' play has been a big part of this effort.
Wall
9. John Wall, Wizards
Has he been as good as advertised? Probably not, but it's closer than you think. Without Griffin in this class we'd be talking about Washington's speed demon a lot more.
Although the Wizards have been struggling, Wall has given them something of an identity. He is a joy to play with and has been competing on defense more than highly regarded rookies normally do.
10. DeMarcus Cousins, Kings
He still has a lot of growing up to do, but he's the biggest beast of these two classes after Griffin. Try these numbers on for size: He averaged 21.7 ppg and 11.5 rpg in a recent string of games against the Lakers, Celtics, Jazz, Mavs, Hornets and Thunder. That's a lot of lottery picks and All-Stars he battled against. And he made 50 of his 101 shots in that stretch, too.
Evans
11. Tyreke Evans, Kings
Evans has been on a tear lately, but there is no way to ignore his horrible start and his inability to help the Kings win. The Kings are 24-78 since Jan. 1, 2010, and only Cleveland's Mo Williams has a usage rate of 25 or more and has lost more games than Evans this season.
Evans still scores in bunches and he's a much improved defender, but among starting point guards he ranks in the bottom five in true shooting percentage and is dead last in assist rate. His talent is undeniable, but he hasn't figured out how to use it within a team concept yet.
DeRozan
12. DeMar DeRozan, Raptors
As a starting 2-guard in the NBA, DeRozan still needs to improve in a lot of areas -- namely the 3-ball -- but watching the Raptors lately is basically watching the DeMar DeRozan Show. He is their most dynamic young player and, since December, has been their most productive and consistent scorer after Andrea Bargnani.
DeRozan has become lethal as a shooter off curls and is attacking the rim more when closely guarded on the perimeter. He pairs nicely with Ed Davis in Toronto as consecutive first-round picks who look like core guys going forward.
Fields
13. Landry Fields, Knicks
As New York has struggled to keep up its momentum from earlier in the season, the love affair with Fields has faded into the background, even though he's doing what he's done since Day 1.
Simply put, his combination of 3-point shooting and rebounding at the wing spot might be the best in the league. He competes all over the floor and plays with a swagger that belies his years.
Monroe
14. Greg Monroe, Pistons
Anchoring the middle as a rookie starter is difficult, but Monroe has stepped up and is looking like the team's center of the future. He has shown the potential to average a double-double as early as next season, which is impressive considering that only seven bigs will likely accomplish that this season. And while he's not a shot-blocker, he's large and agile enough to be a basket protector.
His top two skills coming into the league -- passing and perimeter shooting -- have not taken root yet, but if they do and he learns to compete with more edge and passion consistently, Monroe can jump into the top five of this list next season.
Harden
15. James Harden, Thunder
Consistent, poised, smart and focused. Those qualities are what made Harden the No. 3 pick in the 2009 draft and he's using them to help the Thunder win a lot of games.
He still has to improve as a finisher inside 10 feet and could use his athletic ability more, but his feel and talent make him an excellent complement to Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook. If he ever took over the starting 2-guard spot in OKC, it might help him raise his game to another level, which I believe exists.
Gibson
16. Taj Gibson, Bulls
Gibson has proved he can help the team win whether he's starting or coming off the bench with energy and defense.
He's not shooting as well as he did last season, which could be the result of fewer minutes and touches, but he's one of the top defenders on the Bulls, who are contenders because of the way they defend. Gibson will play a crucial role in the playoffs.
Neal
17. Gary Neal, Spurs
His consistent shooting threat -- he's connecting on 40 percent of his 3s -- is making a big difference in San Antonio. It seems that every shot he takes is the perfect shot, which is a big part of why the Spurs have the league's second-best offense. His worst month from 3-point land was January, when he shot a strong 37.9 percent.
Guys who make 40 percent of their 3-point shots don't knock down two of five every game. There will obviously be some 3-for-4 performances and 0-for-6 nights mixed in, too. But great shooters try to avoid long slumps by focusing on taking nothing but good shots as opposed to chasing shots that might start a hot streak. Neal has been doing that for the Spurs.
Jennings
18. Brandon Jennings, Bucks
Jennings would be higher on this list if he hadn't missed so many games due to injury. Although he hasn't been the same shooter since his hot rookie start, he still manages the game and is always a threat to knife into the lane to create easy shots for a teammate.
He's become a much better finisher at the rim, too, and now needs to find his midrange game to take the next step towards being a top-tier point guard.
Williams
19. Reggie Williams, Warriors
He hasn't been able to get to the rim as often this season, where he's a spectacular finisher despite being an average athlete, but Williams is still one of the most efficient shooters in basketball.
He has made 53 of his last 116 3s (46 percent) and is one of the most reliable ball handlers among designated shooters in the NBA. On a team packed with skill, the Warriors' offense is at its best when he's in the game.
George
20. Paul George, Pacers
Now playing significant minutes for one of the league's hottest teams, George uses his length and feel to make him perhaps the Pacers' most important perimeter defender. He uses those same tools, plus a skilled dribble-drive game, to be their best finishing slasher, too.
He's got a chance to be one of the best rookies in this class over the last two months of the season.
[h3]Five guys to watch[/h3]
Sam Young, Grizzlies: He's my pick for most underrated player in the NBA. Better off the dribble than you'd think, and just as strong as you'd expect.
Wesley Johnson, Timberwolves: He has all the tools to be very good, plus a great head on his shoulders. Now he just needs to figure it out.
Evan Turner, 76ers: I doubt he'll ever live up to his billing as a No. 2 pick, but he can still be a very productive player.
Derrick Favors, Nets: I'd guess that by this time next year, he'll figure prominently in the top 10.
Marcus Thornton, Hornets: He was one of the best rookies last season, but started out on the wrong foot with his new coach this season. Lately, though, he seems to be back in the mix. We know he has the offensive game to punch up some impressive numbers.
Just eight shopping days left, everyone.
The NBA trade deadline is next Thursday, which means the season-long drama of "Where Will Melo Go?" finally will conclude ... we think. After all, it's possible the Nuggets keep him at the trade deadline and this whole debate reignites before the draft.
In the meantime, it's getting awfully difficult to separate truth from fiction, as various parties to the Melo Sweepstakes leak their own versions of reality to the media. All that's clear is Melo's desired endgame -- to land a maximum contract extension, and to land it as a member of the Knicks. Nobody is sure which of the two priorities ranks higher, and that's the most important domino. Certainly, it's a tricky game he's playing. We've never seen a player issue a trade demand before and then exclude all but one team from his list of approved destinations.
[h4]Melo Slot Machine[/h4]
Where will Carmelo Anthony end up?
Melo Slot Machine
To assess where things stand, we took a straw poll among our writers and developed a "Carmelo slot machine" for folks to roll the dice on where he lands. You'll notice that each spin essentially plays the sweepstakes eight times, saving you the trouble of hitting the button over and over until your team gets Melo. (Well, unless you're a Wolves fan. Then you might be here awhile.)
For posterity's sake, I'll relate that my first spin landed four Knicks and four Nuggets, which is a fairly likely outcome for this tool. Our writers gave Melo nearly a 50-50 chance of landing in New York, and nearly 1-in-3 odds of remaining in Denver. Five other teams remain in the race, however tangentially.
Let's break it down and see the how and why of Melo's potential post-deadline landing spots:
[h3]New York (48 percent)[/h3]
Still the leader in the clubhouse, as the Knicks seem confident that Melo will refuse to sign an extension anyplace else. Thus, New York has been reluctant to include many good assets in a trade with the Nuggets.
Under the current cap rules, the Knicks are in position to sign Anthony over the summer, but that's a risk -- depending on the new salary cap regime, they might not be able to easily do so. That's especially true if the owners add a "franchise tag" to the new agreement. As a result, the Knicks have an incentive to get a deal done sooner rather than later.
They still hold most of the cards, however, unless Anthony relents on extending with another team. Eddy Curry's expiring contract would be the salary-cap ballast, but the assets Denver wants are young players and picks -- say, any two among Danilo Gallinari, Landry Fields and Wilson Chandler, and whatever first-rounder New York can get for Anthony Randolph.
New York papers also report the possibility of Chauncey Billups being lumped into the deal and Raymond Felton going to Denver as part of the trade. It makes sense, but semantics could get in the way: Gallinari, Felton and Curry for Billups and Anthony doesn't work under the cap. The Knicks would have to include Timofey Mozgov, Ronny Turiaf or Kelenna Azubuike, or add both Wilson Chandler and Roger Mason to the deal.
From my perspective, adding Chandler to the deal is far more palatable for New York than dealing Gallinari, as Chandler plays the same position as Anthony and New York wouldn't be able to re-sign him this summer if it wanted to clear enough cap space to sign Melo. (Again, this assumes current cap rules carry over.)
In the end, it's New York's patience that has caused this affair to drag on so long. Putting two and two together, one suspects a lot of the leaks we've heard thus far are efforts by Anthony's camp to force New York's hand.
[h3]Denver (30 percent)[/h3]
Might the Nuggets hang on to Melo? I've argued for a while that this is their best alternative, but their play of late has to give pause. Denver is just a half-game ahead of Memphis, which sits in ninth position in the Western Conference -- that means the nightmare scenario looms in which the Nuggets keep Anthony, miss the playoffs anyway and still lose him in the offseason. If they keep him they'll probably make it (especially if Rudy Gay's shoulder injury Tuesday night turns out to be serious), but it's a risk.
The really interesting part is that the Melo madness appears to be affecting the rest of the Nuggets far more than Melo himself. Watching Houston rout Denver on Monday provided a good example -- virtually all Houston's points came on the opposite side of the court form Anthony, and the Nuggets' bench was blown off the floor.
Believe it or not, the three Nuggets with the best adjusted plus-minus this season are Anthony, Nene and J.R. Smith -- the three free-agents-to-be you'd expect to be most checked-out in the current situation. (Nene, I should mention, did treat himself to several birds-eye views of Houston buckets, most notably an inexcusable Chase Budinger romp down main street for a video-game dunk. Defensively, this was not his finest hour.)
Nonetheless, today's Playoff Odds give the current edition of the Nuggets just a 74 percent chance of making the playoffs -- which isn't good enough to justify the risk of having those three players bolt after the season.
In other words, Denver would need an information advantage to justify this strategy -- if they knew for a fact that Anthony values an extension more than a trade, for instance, this would be the route to go. At the very least, if the Nuggets knew Nene would stay no matter what they'd be more secure taking this path, but we haven't heard any indication that's the case.
[h3]New Jersey (10 percent)[/h3]
This may seem high since the Nets announced to the world they were no longer pursuing an Anthony trade, but the suspicion lurks that New Jersey is ready to dive back in once the Nuggets stop vacillating and play ball. New Jersey still has by far the best package to offer Denver -- rookie Derrick Favors, multiple first-round picks and the expiring contract of Troy Murphy -- but it's never been clear if Anthony considers a year on the good side of the Hudson, followed by a move to Brooklyn, reasonably "New York" enough to sign an extension.
Ultimately, however, the reason to give the Nets a puncher's chance is a simple one -- if they're interested in winning the bidding, they definitely have the best offer.
[h3]L.A. Lakers (6 percent)[/h3]
One presumes Anthony would agree to an extension with the Lakers, even if it put him even farther from home than Denver. An added two hours of flying time appears to be a small price for joining a championship-caliber core and regaling in the spotlight of the league's most popular team.
Whether L.A. would agree to send Andrew Bynum to Denver in a trade is an item for much heavier debate. The Lakers have said emphatically that they wouldn't, but that was before this week's disastrous trip through Orlando and Charlotte. If L.A. somehow loses to Cleveland on Wednesday, look for the fires of Bynum-Anthony rumors to flare up again.
[h3]Houston (3 percent)[/h3]
The Rockets remain on the fringes of the Western Conference playoff chase, but their interest in Anthony is for the long term. As a result, his reluctance to ink an extension has to weight heavily on any potential offer they would make.
If Houston really wants to, it could bowl Denver over with a great offer -- centered, ironically, on a draft pick they're owed by the Knicks. Yao Ming's insured, expiring contract would also be in the deal, as would a couple of younger assets (likely Budinger and impressive rookie Patrick Patterson). But that's a hefty price to pay if Anthony will leave anyway after the season, and it's likely given the Rockets enough pause to move on to other alternatives.
[h3]Dallas (2 percent)[/h3]
Unlike Houston, Dallas would happily roll the dice on renting Anthony and hoping he could provide the missing link in their decade-long quest to get Dirk Nowitzki a ring.
The problem here is one of assets. Dallas is basically offering Rodrigue Beaubois, Caron Butler's expiring contract and whatever other scraps they can pull into a deal (Dominique Jones? A future first-rounder? Mark Cuban's seat on the basketball analytics panel at the Sloan Sports Conference?), a hand that is unlikely to trump what's on the table from New York and the other suitors listed above. In fact, Denver would probably turn down that offer even if none of the other offers existed. Somehow, the Mavs need to find a way to sweeten the pot to have a realistic shot
[h3]Chicago (1 percent)[/h3]
A Chicago-Denver trade doesn't seem very likely, even though Anthony would probably agree to an extension in Chicago, simply because the only plausible alternative -- Joakim Noah to the Nuggets -- has already been rejected out of hand by the Bulls. Denver won't take on Luol Deng's contract and the Bulls don't have any other deals on their books sizable enough to match up with Melo's contract.
Unless, that is, they were willing to put Carlos Boozer into a straight-up trade for Anthony. Just a thought. But not much of one, probably -- Melo would have to play as undersized 4 because he and Deng play the same position. No matter how you work it, in other words, this doesn't look workable.
As we head into the All-Star break, it seems an appropriate time to take a step back and evaluate the new talent that has entered the league in the past two seasons. No one can deny that each class, taken on its own merits, has been short on top-tier talent. But what about when we look at them combined?
When we consider that no fewer than nine different players are considered the likely faces of their team's future and another five play either pivotal or starting roles for playoff teams, we begin to see that the NBA has added plenty of strong players the last two summers.
Let's stack them up and rank them, not based on future performances or what they did last year, but strictly on how they have done so far this season.
Griffin
1. Blake Griffin, Clippers
Did you expect to see anyone else here? We'd have to go back to the 2008 draft to find anyone who can compete with Griffin for the top spot. If we did, he'd be notched just below Derrick Rose, Russell Westbrook and probably Kevin Love as the fourth-best player to enter the NBA in the past three years.
No one in the past two drafts comes close to matching the productivity or star power of Griffin.
Curry
2. Stephen Curry, Warriors
To my eye, he's the best player on an improving Golden State team. He can beat you with his long-range shooting, his passing and his ability to generate buckets against good defense. And none of those things are his best gift, which is his intelligence.
He was terrific last season and has been even better this season, improving in almost every metric we keep track of. His defense isn't as bad you think either. Besides, Steve Nash, who isn't known for his defense, won two MVPs. This guy is Nash all over again.
Blair
3. DeJuan Blair, Spurs
The best college rebounder to enter the NBA in years continues to pound the boards and the teams who passed on him in the 2009 draft (he went 37th overall). He's a solid starter on the league's best team and, after a rough start to the season, playing the best ball of his short career.
His great hands are not just good for rebounding in traffic, but also for stripping ball handlers and shooters attacking the rim -- he leads all bigs in steals per 48 minutes. And in a bit of irony, no player in his draft class has appeared in more games.
Ibaka
4. Serge Ibaka, Thunder
If you want to see how a player can impact a team without putting up double-doubles or huge scoring numbers, study Ibaka. Everyone sees what he does on defense (he leads all rookies and sophs in blocks), but the Thunder are also a much better offensive team when he's on the floor. He finishes over 70 percent of his shots in the paint and makes 45 percent of his pick-and-pops.
In short, he's the third-best player on one of the top 10 teams in the NBA.
Holiday
5. Jrue Holiday, 76ers
A case can be made that Philly is the league's most improved team and Holiday, who leads the Sixers in minutes played, just might be its most valuable player. He sets the stage for the team on offense and defense, ranking second in assists and fourth in steals among all first- and second-year players.
He has also proved to be a much better shooter from distance, coming up huge in the scoring department in multiple games this season. Most recently, he poured in 27 of his team's 77 points in an upset of the Spurs. A change in Philly's offense might signal less production from Holiday, however, which would likely move him down this list.
Collison
6. Darren Collison, Pacers
Collison is quietly coming on as a high-level point guard. Solid for the first half of the season, he has been terrific since the coaching change in Indiana. The Pacers have won eight of their past 10, and Collison is the steady hand at the wheel of this run.
7. Ty Lawson, Nuggets
Lawson made an impressive debut last season, and although some people thought he'd be headed for a down year as teams adjusted to his speed, he was my preseason pick to win the MIP award. While it's unlikely he'll actually win the award, he has slightly improved upon his overall production from last season and leads one of the league's best bench units.
Lawson has one of the top field goal percentages among all point guards in the NBA, thanks to good shooting and better decision-making.
Matthews
8. Wesley Matthews, Trail Blazers
After struggling from deep in November, Matthews has been hot from beyond the arc for three straight months (better than 42 percent) and more than adequate as a replacement for All-Star Brandon Roy.
One of the top stories of the season has been Portland's ability to stay in the playoff chase despite devastating injuries to two of its star players. Matthews' play has been a big part of this effort.
Wall
9. John Wall, Wizards
Has he been as good as advertised? Probably not, but it's closer than you think. Without Griffin in this class we'd be talking about Washington's speed demon a lot more.
Although the Wizards have been struggling, Wall has given them something of an identity. He is a joy to play with and has been competing on defense more than highly regarded rookies normally do.
10. DeMarcus Cousins, Kings
He still has a lot of growing up to do, but he's the biggest beast of these two classes after Griffin. Try these numbers on for size: He averaged 21.7 ppg and 11.5 rpg in a recent string of games against the Lakers, Celtics, Jazz, Mavs, Hornets and Thunder. That's a lot of lottery picks and All-Stars he battled against. And he made 50 of his 101 shots in that stretch, too.
Evans
11. Tyreke Evans, Kings
Evans has been on a tear lately, but there is no way to ignore his horrible start and his inability to help the Kings win. The Kings are 24-78 since Jan. 1, 2010, and only Cleveland's Mo Williams has a usage rate of 25 or more and has lost more games than Evans this season.
Evans still scores in bunches and he's a much improved defender, but among starting point guards he ranks in the bottom five in true shooting percentage and is dead last in assist rate. His talent is undeniable, but he hasn't figured out how to use it within a team concept yet.
DeRozan
12. DeMar DeRozan, Raptors
As a starting 2-guard in the NBA, DeRozan still needs to improve in a lot of areas -- namely the 3-ball -- but watching the Raptors lately is basically watching the DeMar DeRozan Show. He is their most dynamic young player and, since December, has been their most productive and consistent scorer after Andrea Bargnani.
DeRozan has become lethal as a shooter off curls and is attacking the rim more when closely guarded on the perimeter. He pairs nicely with Ed Davis in Toronto as consecutive first-round picks who look like core guys going forward.
Fields
13. Landry Fields, Knicks
As New York has struggled to keep up its momentum from earlier in the season, the love affair with Fields has faded into the background, even though he's doing what he's done since Day 1.
Simply put, his combination of 3-point shooting and rebounding at the wing spot might be the best in the league. He competes all over the floor and plays with a swagger that belies his years.
Monroe
14. Greg Monroe, Pistons
Anchoring the middle as a rookie starter is difficult, but Monroe has stepped up and is looking like the team's center of the future. He has shown the potential to average a double-double as early as next season, which is impressive considering that only seven bigs will likely accomplish that this season. And while he's not a shot-blocker, he's large and agile enough to be a basket protector.
His top two skills coming into the league -- passing and perimeter shooting -- have not taken root yet, but if they do and he learns to compete with more edge and passion consistently, Monroe can jump into the top five of this list next season.
Harden
15. James Harden, Thunder
Consistent, poised, smart and focused. Those qualities are what made Harden the No. 3 pick in the 2009 draft and he's using them to help the Thunder win a lot of games.
He still has to improve as a finisher inside 10 feet and could use his athletic ability more, but his feel and talent make him an excellent complement to Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook. If he ever took over the starting 2-guard spot in OKC, it might help him raise his game to another level, which I believe exists.
Gibson
16. Taj Gibson, Bulls
Gibson has proved he can help the team win whether he's starting or coming off the bench with energy and defense.
He's not shooting as well as he did last season, which could be the result of fewer minutes and touches, but he's one of the top defenders on the Bulls, who are contenders because of the way they defend. Gibson will play a crucial role in the playoffs.
Neal
17. Gary Neal, Spurs
His consistent shooting threat -- he's connecting on 40 percent of his 3s -- is making a big difference in San Antonio. It seems that every shot he takes is the perfect shot, which is a big part of why the Spurs have the league's second-best offense. His worst month from 3-point land was January, when he shot a strong 37.9 percent.
Guys who make 40 percent of their 3-point shots don't knock down two of five every game. There will obviously be some 3-for-4 performances and 0-for-6 nights mixed in, too. But great shooters try to avoid long slumps by focusing on taking nothing but good shots as opposed to chasing shots that might start a hot streak. Neal has been doing that for the Spurs.
Jennings
18. Brandon Jennings, Bucks
Jennings would be higher on this list if he hadn't missed so many games due to injury. Although he hasn't been the same shooter since his hot rookie start, he still manages the game and is always a threat to knife into the lane to create easy shots for a teammate.
He's become a much better finisher at the rim, too, and now needs to find his midrange game to take the next step towards being a top-tier point guard.
Williams
19. Reggie Williams, Warriors
He hasn't been able to get to the rim as often this season, where he's a spectacular finisher despite being an average athlete, but Williams is still one of the most efficient shooters in basketball.
He has made 53 of his last 116 3s (46 percent) and is one of the most reliable ball handlers among designated shooters in the NBA. On a team packed with skill, the Warriors' offense is at its best when he's in the game.
George
20. Paul George, Pacers
Now playing significant minutes for one of the league's hottest teams, George uses his length and feel to make him perhaps the Pacers' most important perimeter defender. He uses those same tools, plus a skilled dribble-drive game, to be their best finishing slasher, too.
He's got a chance to be one of the best rookies in this class over the last two months of the season.
[h3]Five guys to watch[/h3]
Sam Young, Grizzlies: He's my pick for most underrated player in the NBA. Better off the dribble than you'd think, and just as strong as you'd expect.
Wesley Johnson, Timberwolves: He has all the tools to be very good, plus a great head on his shoulders. Now he just needs to figure it out.
Evan Turner, 76ers: I doubt he'll ever live up to his billing as a No. 2 pick, but he can still be a very productive player.
Derrick Favors, Nets: I'd guess that by this time next year, he'll figure prominently in the top 10.
Marcus Thornton, Hornets: He was one of the best rookies last season, but started out on the wrong foot with his new coach this season. Lately, though, he seems to be back in the mix. We know he has the offensive game to punch up some impressive numbers.
Butler wants to stay with Mavs
10:29AM ET
Caron Butler | Mavericks
Caron Butler began phase two of his rehab from right patellar tendon surgery on Tuesday and is confident that he'll return to the Mavs lineup during the playoffs.
Butler is very aware that he could be traded due to his expiring contract and the ability of the Mavs to lower their luxury tax bill. His preference is to stay with the team because of its strong locker room and legitimate chance to make the NBA Finals.
"Anything can happen, I understand the business," Butler told the Fort Worth Star-Telegram. "I'll be a free agent this summer and obviously I would love to come back here and play, and play many a years because I feel like the window for winning titles has definitely come for this organization. So we'll see what happens."
Butler has good chance of coming back to Dallas this season even if he's traded because he could agree to a buyout with the team that acquires him. He couldn't re-sign with the Mavs for 30 days, but that's fine because he won't return from the injury until late in the playoffs anyway.
-- Nick Borges
That's VERY surprising. I wouldn't think Butler would do that, but hey more power to us if he does come back, I'd love to have him back.
This has been a VERY quiet year for trades. Off-season was quite a shake-up, but we've had very little mid-season trades compared to years past. Mavs traded Ajinca for the rights for some scrub. There was of course the huge Orlando shake-up, Taylor got sent to the Kings, T-Will/Joe Smith/Sasha swap also, but that's it.
4 trades in about 3-4 months.
I don't think there'll be much movement at the trade deadline either.
Butler wants to stay with Mavs
10:29AM ET
Caron Butler | Mavericks
Caron Butler began phase two of his rehab from right patellar tendon surgery on Tuesday and is confident that he'll return to the Mavs lineup during the playoffs.
Butler is very aware that he could be traded due to his expiring contract and the ability of the Mavs to lower their luxury tax bill. His preference is to stay with the team because of its strong locker room and legitimate chance to make the NBA Finals.
"Anything can happen, I understand the business," Butler told the Fort Worth Star-Telegram. "I'll be a free agent this summer and obviously I would love to come back here and play, and play many a years because I feel like the window for winning titles has definitely come for this organization. So we'll see what happens."
Butler has good chance of coming back to Dallas this season even if he's traded because he could agree to a buyout with the team that acquires him. He couldn't re-sign with the Mavs for 30 days, but that's fine because he won't return from the injury until late in the playoffs anyway.
-- Nick Borges
That's VERY surprising. I wouldn't think Butler would do that, but hey more power to us if he does come back, I'd love to have him back.
This has been a VERY quiet year for trades. Off-season was quite a shake-up, but we've had very little mid-season trades compared to years past. Mavs traded Ajinca for the rights for some scrub. There was of course the huge Orlando shake-up, Taylor got sent to the Kings, T-Will/Joe Smith/Sasha swap also, but that's it.
4 trades in about 3-4 months.
I don't think there'll be much movement at the trade deadline either.
Teams don't want to talk about it, but they should always prepare for the twilight years of their franchise stars. Sure, everyone knows the good times won't last forever, but savvy organizations have a plan in place for when their cornerstones ride into the sunset.
If you look at the rosters for this season's All-Star Game, you'll notice that several players are either on the downside of their careers or just about to turn that corner.
With that in mind, which team is best equipped to handle its elder All-Star's inevitable decline?
Let's break it down.
[h3]Team: Houston Rockets
Player: Yao Ming[/h3]
The bones supporting a 7-foot-6, 310-pound athlete have the shelf life of an opened bag of lettuce, and the Rockets have wisely begun collecting assets for Life After Yao. And Houston can actually use its All-Star center to jump-start the process. The 30-year-old is in the final year of the five-year, $75 million extension he signed in 2005, which means the Rockets can tout him as an expiring contract in trade talks.
As the Rockets look to find their next Yao at the trade deadline, the most enticing package they can put together for a rebuilding team would include the expiring contracts of Yao ($13 million) and Jared Jeffries ($7 million), along with youngster Jordan Hill and reigning most improved player Aaron Brooks. That alone likely won't be enough to haul in a big-time player, so the Rockets will have to get creative with multiple teams -- if that's the route they decide to take.
The Rockets find themselves in a precarious position because, although they have considerable trade assets, they don't have a bona fide young star in the fold to build around. Kevin Martin is an elite scorer and one of the more underappreciated players in the game, but his defensive liabilities will always compromise his overall impact. And as outstanding as Luis Scola has been, he's older than Yao. Even with those two players, they're a below-.500 team.
The long-term prospects of the Rockets franchise hinges on the February trade deadline. As it stands, they will free up roughly $20 million worth of cap space, but that assumes the salary cap remains where it is now -- which it almost undoubtedly won't.
[h3]Team: Los Angeles Lakers
Player: Kobe Bryant[/h3]
Yes, believe it or not, there will be a post-Kobe era. At 32, the only area where Bryant has shown signs of slipping is on the defensive end (check out his atrocious defensive on-court/off-court numbers). But even though Bryant works as hard as anyone to maintain form, the mid-30s typically are the kiss of death for elite shooting guards. Nonetheless, the Lakers are on the hook for approximately $84 million through 2013-14, including a whopping $30.5 million in the season when Bryant will turn 35.
It's painfully obvious that the health of the franchise largely rides on the health of Bryant. Should his career head south quickly in his twilight years, the Lakers won't have much spending power to press the reset button. For perspective, the Lakers already have $53 million committed for the 2013-14 season.
With Pau Gasol and 23-year-old Andrew Bynum under team control at least through 2012-13, the Lakers have a strong foundation to bridge the gap between Bryant and the Lakers' next big fish. The franchise is engaged in win-now mode, as its top six players in minutes are north of 30 years old. The Lakers' age won't be a concern in the short term, but they'll need some backcourt help to boost their chances in the long term. Aside from Bynum, Shannon Brown is the organization's only promising young player, and he can bolt after this season.
[h3]Team: Boston Celtics
Players: Ray Allen, Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett[/h3]Thanks to the ascension of Rajon Rondo, the Celtics' Big Three moniker has become a misnomer. The 24-year-old is putting up eye-popping numbers in the assist column (second in assist percentage only to Steve Nash) on the offensive end, and defensively he's causing chaos with his freakishly long arms (he ranks second in steal percentage behind Chris Paul).
Rondo not only brightens the Celtics' horizon; his incredible playmaking abilities will also help to extend the life of his aging counterparts. The five-year extension Celtics GM Danny Ainge inked for Rondo in November 2009 should go down as one of the most underappreciated moves in recent history. It will keep Rondo in green through 2014-15 at an incredible discount -- the Hawks will shell out about twice the dollar amount for Joe Johnson over the same period.
Not unlike the rival Lakers, the Celtics' roster is stocked with 30-somethings well past their primes. Boston will have an interesting summer, as its young guns, Glen Davis and Kendrick Perkins, will both be free agents after this season. And as it stands now, the only other players committed past this season under the age of 30 are Rondo, Nate Robinson, Semih Erden, Luke Harangody and Avery Bradley. That's not a strong fleet of youth.
The Celtics organization will arrive at a crossroads in the summer of 2012, when the contracts of Garnett (who's 34) and Allen (35) expire. Will they be able to retool around Rondo and a 35-year-old Pierce to maintain their championship aspirations?
[h3]Team: San Antonio Spurs
Player: Tim Duncan[/h3]Without the luxury of lottery picks, the Spurs have somehow managed to restock their shelves through the draft year after year. In the process, they've built around Duncan, who's 34, and solidified a promising core that will extend beyond him as well.
DeJuan Blair, whom the Spurs plucked in the second round of the 2009 draft, is already a full-time starter and, at 21 years old, currently owns the ninth-best rebound rate among NBA regulars. While he may never develop into an All-Star, the Spurs will gladly take a daily double-double from someone they're paying a grand total of $3 million through 2012-13.
Between Blair and the 26-year-old Tiago Splitter -- another one of the Spurs' diamonds in the rough -- San Antonio is well-equipped to withstand Duncan's final years with the team. Neither Blair nor Splitter will come close to providing the same production as Duncan, but with their price tags, they're only expected to be placeholders for the next big-time post player.
Most people forget that Tony Parker -- yet another Spurs find late in the draft -- is just 28 years old. Enjoying a bounceback season, Parker should provide good value for the Spurs going forward, as they're paying him $12.5 million annually through 2014-15. He and Manu Ginobili should be able to lead the Spurs into a post-Duncan era if he decides to bolt (or retire) when his contract expires after next season.
Knowing the Spurs, they'll probably nab North Carolina's Harrison Barnes with a late first-round pick and watch him turn into the top prospect many envisioned. That's just what they do.
[h3]Team: Dallas Mavericks
Player: Dirk Nowitzki[/h3]Right now, Dallas' only players under contract past Nowitzki are 31-year-old Brendan Haywood and rookie Dominique Jones. That's not a good sign.
But it also means that the Mavericks have a way to go before they have to deal with life after their franchise player. The perennial All-Star re-upped with the Mavs over the summer, keeping him in Dallas through his age-35 season in 2014. And he's shown no sign of slowing down.
Still, with nearly 40,000 minutes of NBA ball on Nowitzki's 7-foot frame -- never mind the miles logged in international play -- he will erode at some point, and the Mavericks have to be prepared in the event that it occurs sooner rather than later.
Roddy Beaubois could make that transition a little smoother. The 22-year-old hasn't played this season because of a fractured left foot, but he's one of the best-kept secrets in the NBA. That won't last long if he picks up where he left off last season. The Frenchman averaged 20.4 points every 36 minutes in 2009-10 and became the first rookie ever to shoot 50 percent from the floor, 40 percent from downtown (minimum 30 attempts) and 80 percent from the line. The Mavericks hope Beaubois will make his season debut Wednesday night against the Kings and helps fill the scoring void left by Caron Butler's season-ending injury.
After Beaubois, the Mavericks don't have much in the way of bankable long-term pieces. As it stands now, the Dallas core of Tyson Chandler, Caron Butler, Jason Kidd and Jason Terry will all reach free agency before 2012-13, which leaves just four players alongside Nowitzki thereafter.
Mavs owner Mark Cuban will spend at all costs to win Nowitzki a ring, so don't expect his team to have a quiet trade deadline or offseason. Right now, though, the Mavericks' long-term future is pretty uncertain.
Teams don't want to talk about it, but they should always prepare for the twilight years of their franchise stars. Sure, everyone knows the good times won't last forever, but savvy organizations have a plan in place for when their cornerstones ride into the sunset.
If you look at the rosters for this season's All-Star Game, you'll notice that several players are either on the downside of their careers or just about to turn that corner.
With that in mind, which team is best equipped to handle its elder All-Star's inevitable decline?
Let's break it down.
[h3]Team: Houston Rockets
Player: Yao Ming[/h3]
The bones supporting a 7-foot-6, 310-pound athlete have the shelf life of an opened bag of lettuce, and the Rockets have wisely begun collecting assets for Life After Yao. And Houston can actually use its All-Star center to jump-start the process. The 30-year-old is in the final year of the five-year, $75 million extension he signed in 2005, which means the Rockets can tout him as an expiring contract in trade talks.
As the Rockets look to find their next Yao at the trade deadline, the most enticing package they can put together for a rebuilding team would include the expiring contracts of Yao ($13 million) and Jared Jeffries ($7 million), along with youngster Jordan Hill and reigning most improved player Aaron Brooks. That alone likely won't be enough to haul in a big-time player, so the Rockets will have to get creative with multiple teams -- if that's the route they decide to take.
The Rockets find themselves in a precarious position because, although they have considerable trade assets, they don't have a bona fide young star in the fold to build around. Kevin Martin is an elite scorer and one of the more underappreciated players in the game, but his defensive liabilities will always compromise his overall impact. And as outstanding as Luis Scola has been, he's older than Yao. Even with those two players, they're a below-.500 team.
The long-term prospects of the Rockets franchise hinges on the February trade deadline. As it stands, they will free up roughly $20 million worth of cap space, but that assumes the salary cap remains where it is now -- which it almost undoubtedly won't.
[h3]Team: Los Angeles Lakers
Player: Kobe Bryant[/h3]
Yes, believe it or not, there will be a post-Kobe era. At 32, the only area where Bryant has shown signs of slipping is on the defensive end (check out his atrocious defensive on-court/off-court numbers). But even though Bryant works as hard as anyone to maintain form, the mid-30s typically are the kiss of death for elite shooting guards. Nonetheless, the Lakers are on the hook for approximately $84 million through 2013-14, including a whopping $30.5 million in the season when Bryant will turn 35.
It's painfully obvious that the health of the franchise largely rides on the health of Bryant. Should his career head south quickly in his twilight years, the Lakers won't have much spending power to press the reset button. For perspective, the Lakers already have $53 million committed for the 2013-14 season.
With Pau Gasol and 23-year-old Andrew Bynum under team control at least through 2012-13, the Lakers have a strong foundation to bridge the gap between Bryant and the Lakers' next big fish. The franchise is engaged in win-now mode, as its top six players in minutes are north of 30 years old. The Lakers' age won't be a concern in the short term, but they'll need some backcourt help to boost their chances in the long term. Aside from Bynum, Shannon Brown is the organization's only promising young player, and he can bolt after this season.
[h3]Team: Boston Celtics
Players: Ray Allen, Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett[/h3]Thanks to the ascension of Rajon Rondo, the Celtics' Big Three moniker has become a misnomer. The 24-year-old is putting up eye-popping numbers in the assist column (second in assist percentage only to Steve Nash) on the offensive end, and defensively he's causing chaos with his freakishly long arms (he ranks second in steal percentage behind Chris Paul).
Rondo not only brightens the Celtics' horizon; his incredible playmaking abilities will also help to extend the life of his aging counterparts. The five-year extension Celtics GM Danny Ainge inked for Rondo in November 2009 should go down as one of the most underappreciated moves in recent history. It will keep Rondo in green through 2014-15 at an incredible discount -- the Hawks will shell out about twice the dollar amount for Joe Johnson over the same period.
Not unlike the rival Lakers, the Celtics' roster is stocked with 30-somethings well past their primes. Boston will have an interesting summer, as its young guns, Glen Davis and Kendrick Perkins, will both be free agents after this season. And as it stands now, the only other players committed past this season under the age of 30 are Rondo, Nate Robinson, Semih Erden, Luke Harangody and Avery Bradley. That's not a strong fleet of youth.
The Celtics organization will arrive at a crossroads in the summer of 2012, when the contracts of Garnett (who's 34) and Allen (35) expire. Will they be able to retool around Rondo and a 35-year-old Pierce to maintain their championship aspirations?
[h3]Team: San Antonio Spurs
Player: Tim Duncan[/h3]Without the luxury of lottery picks, the Spurs have somehow managed to restock their shelves through the draft year after year. In the process, they've built around Duncan, who's 34, and solidified a promising core that will extend beyond him as well.
DeJuan Blair, whom the Spurs plucked in the second round of the 2009 draft, is already a full-time starter and, at 21 years old, currently owns the ninth-best rebound rate among NBA regulars. While he may never develop into an All-Star, the Spurs will gladly take a daily double-double from someone they're paying a grand total of $3 million through 2012-13.
Between Blair and the 26-year-old Tiago Splitter -- another one of the Spurs' diamonds in the rough -- San Antonio is well-equipped to withstand Duncan's final years with the team. Neither Blair nor Splitter will come close to providing the same production as Duncan, but with their price tags, they're only expected to be placeholders for the next big-time post player.
Most people forget that Tony Parker -- yet another Spurs find late in the draft -- is just 28 years old. Enjoying a bounceback season, Parker should provide good value for the Spurs going forward, as they're paying him $12.5 million annually through 2014-15. He and Manu Ginobili should be able to lead the Spurs into a post-Duncan era if he decides to bolt (or retire) when his contract expires after next season.
Knowing the Spurs, they'll probably nab North Carolina's Harrison Barnes with a late first-round pick and watch him turn into the top prospect many envisioned. That's just what they do.
[h3]Team: Dallas Mavericks
Player: Dirk Nowitzki[/h3]Right now, Dallas' only players under contract past Nowitzki are 31-year-old Brendan Haywood and rookie Dominique Jones. That's not a good sign.
But it also means that the Mavericks have a way to go before they have to deal with life after their franchise player. The perennial All-Star re-upped with the Mavs over the summer, keeping him in Dallas through his age-35 season in 2014. And he's shown no sign of slowing down.
Still, with nearly 40,000 minutes of NBA ball on Nowitzki's 7-foot frame -- never mind the miles logged in international play -- he will erode at some point, and the Mavericks have to be prepared in the event that it occurs sooner rather than later.
Roddy Beaubois could make that transition a little smoother. The 22-year-old hasn't played this season because of a fractured left foot, but he's one of the best-kept secrets in the NBA. That won't last long if he picks up where he left off last season. The Frenchman averaged 20.4 points every 36 minutes in 2009-10 and became the first rookie ever to shoot 50 percent from the floor, 40 percent from downtown (minimum 30 attempts) and 80 percent from the line. The Mavericks hope Beaubois will make his season debut Wednesday night against the Kings and helps fill the scoring void left by Caron Butler's season-ending injury.
After Beaubois, the Mavericks don't have much in the way of bankable long-term pieces. As it stands now, the Dallas core of Tyson Chandler, Caron Butler, Jason Kidd and Jason Terry will all reach free agency before 2012-13, which leaves just four players alongside Nowitzki thereafter.
Mavs owner Mark Cuban will spend at all costs to win Nowitzki a ring, so don't expect his team to have a quiet trade deadline or offseason. Right now, though, the Mavericks' long-term future is pretty uncertain.
Originally Posted by 651akathePaul
Cracks me up how some posts about basketball are sprinkled in between the movie buff posts...In the NBA season thread no less.
Is this unique to NT so I can say..."Only on NT?"
Originally Posted by 651akathePaul
Cracks me up how some posts about basketball are sprinkled in between the movie buff posts...In the NBA season thread no less.
Is this unique to NT so I can say..."Only on NT?"
Originally Posted by Im Not You
Wall @ 9? Really?
Originally Posted by Im Not You
Wall @ 9? Really?
Originally Posted by CP1708
Originally Posted by 651akathePaul
Cracks me up how some posts about basketball are sprinkled in between the movie buff posts...In the NBA season thread no less.
Is this unique to NT so I can say..."Only on NT?"
I'm workin on it.........
I'm trying to see if I can get ONE single thread to be allowed, within S&T that would be a general thread for people to post in. Movies, TV, Books, Cars, whatever. As you can imagine, there could be issues with that, so I have not been given the all clear signal yet. But I am asking around, trying to see what I can do. That would eliminate us having to talk in the NBA thread about it. But frankly, General sucks, and I hate navigating back and forth, and the threads in there are a mess. There's no such thing as just Movies thread, it's dozens and dozens of threads for each movie or whatever. But just a general thread about movies, or TV does not exsist.
If I can get an approval, I'll get a thread up as soon as allowed, and then we could move all this discussion in there, but still be in S&T.