OKLAHOMA CITY -- Desperate times call for desperate measures, and in Chicago and Oklahoma City, times are starting to get a bit desperate.
Each team enters Game 4 down 2-1 in games and knowing darn well that a 3-1 deficit is pretty much a death sentence in the NBA. Only eight teams have come back from that far down in NBA history; fully 200 have tried. If either of these teams loses Game 4, there's a 96 percent chance it loses the series, too.
As a result, this is usually the time in a series we see coaches try things they wouldn't have done previously. Two weeks ago, for instance, the Thunder were in a similar situation and went to a rarely used small-ball lineup in a furious rally from 18 points down. We didn't see much of OKC's small look the rest of the series, but that Game 4 rally effectively won it a spot in the conference finals. (We've also seen a lot more of that look against Dallas.)
Or take its opponent in the last round. After the Grizzlies rallied to win Game 3 in equally desperate fashion, partly because they started O.J. Mayo in the second half, I noted that Memphis needed to consider starting Mayo for the ineffective Sam Young. The Grizzlies didn't do it then, but once they were down 3-2 and in even more desperate straits they changed their tune. Mayo started Games 6 and 7.
It's sometimes frustrating for fans that coaches don't make these adjustments sooner, but there are some practical reasons for it. Coaches crave stability and predictability and, in most cases, they feel as if it makes the job easier for their players. That is doubly true for teams at this stage of the season; their being here indicates they've had a hugely successful season, so it's tough to argue for a shake-up without massive supporting evidence.
Additionally, there is a bigger picture to consider, one that is especially important for Chicago and Oklahoma City. Both teams are likely to be making deep playoff runs for several years to come, so I'm sure the coaches want to communicate their confidence in their group of players. Abruptly yanking one of them from the rotation is at cross purposes with that goal, obviously.
Oddly enough, such change is probably easier for a team such as Miami, for which there are three limelight players and everybody else is abundantly aware of how disposable they are. True to form, the Heat have juggled the rotation on an almost game-to-game basis this postseason. Dallas, meanwhile, is in a different spot entirely -- after a regular season in which they tried just about everything, the Mavs are so giddy with their current nine-man rotation that it's tough to imagine them changing much.
Of course, those teams don't need to change anything -- they're ahead. It's the Bulls and Thunder, who are scratching their collective heads this morning.
Whatever changes they decide upon, they may not be dramatic. I don't know what Tom Thibodeau plans on doing in Chicago, but after talking to Scott Brooks at yesterday's Thunder practice I can guarantee Oklahoma City won't be making any dramatic lineup revisions. We may see some different things in second and fourth quarters, particularly with the small look, but the Thunder's main focus yesterday was on all the bricks they shot in the first half.
Nonetheless, I have a few suggestions for both clubs:
• Oklahoma City: Dramatically reduce Kendrick Perkins' role. This is the shooting-fish-in-a-barrel lead-in to my other bullet points, as it seems beyond obvious that Perk is absolutely killing the Thunder in this series and has no business playing 30 minutes a game. (To avoid belaboring the point, here's what I wrote after Game 3.)
I could stomach OKC keeping Perkins in the starting lineup for the sheer sake of continuity (especially if the Thunder follow through with my next suggestion), but Serge Ibaka and Nick Collison need to get the lion's share of the frontcourt minutes.
Perkins is only really useful when Brendan Haywood is on the court for Dallas. He's only played 13 of his 83 minutes against Haywood so far, but in that time his 36-minute plus-minus is a defensible minus-2.8, compared to a ridiculous minus-15.9 in his other minutes. (All numbers from NBA.com's Statscube tool.)
This takes us to an ongoing theme in this series so far: A lot of the Thunder players' minutes right now are timed for moments in which they will be least effective. That's why I think moving Perk to the bench and starting Nazr Mohammed until Collison checks in makes some sense, jarring though that would be. Perkins could play nearly all his minutes against Haywood rather than getting run off the floor by Tyson Chandler.
In fact, here's one other suggestion under this heading that would really help -- subbing out Perkins first instead of Ibaka. The Thunder normally bring in Collison for Ibaka around the four- or five-minute mark of the first and third quarters. What sometimes happens, however, is that the Thunder will decide to go small in the second or fourth quarter with Collison as the lone big.
That last part makes sense -- the four smalls with Collison have been a devastatingly effective lineup -- but Ibaka ends up staying on the bench the rest of the half, or close to it. As a result, Perkins ends up playing more ... even though Ibaka is clearly the better player. Subbing out Perk first would shift the minutes balance; it also may make it more possible for him to play against Haywood by subbing him back in during those minutes.
• Chicago: Play Gibson for Noah. Joakim Noah is the Bulls' Kendrick Perkins in this series. While he hasn't struggled nearly as much as Perkins has, the fact is he's playing starter's minutes even though the players off the bench are outperforming him.
Last night was another glaring example. Taj Gibson scored 11 points in 12 minutes; Noah scored one in 29. For a Bulls team desperate for scoring, his inability to provide it is a problem. So is his defense. Chris Bosh scored most of his points at Noah's expense and has been dramatically less effective anytime Gibson is on the floor. When Gibson plays, Bosh averages 11.7 points per 36 minutes; when Noah plays it zooms up to 24.7 points.
I understand why Chicago normally plays Noah and not Gibson -- Gibson is only 6-foot-9, 225 pounds, and against most teams you can't get away with somebody of that size at center. But against Miami? With the offensively inept Joel Anthony and 6-8 Udonis Haslem as the opposing center combo? Playing Gibson makes all kinds of sense. His superior ability to defend Bosh allows Carlos Boozer to focus on scoring, and his ability to hit midrange J's should provide more breathing room for a suffocated Derrick Rose.
Chicago rarely uses the Boozer-Gibson combo in the frontcourt but finished the game with it last night; given Omer Asik's calf strain and questionable availability for Game 4, we ought to see it much more often going forward. As I tweeted last night during the game, I think this duo gives the Bulls their best chance to win against Miami.
• Oklahoma City: Start Daequan Cook for Thabo Sefolosha. Here's the other Perkins-related issue for the Thunder that isn't getting any play: They start three nonscorers with Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant. In a related story, they've lost 11 of 15 first quarters in the playoffs and have constantly been playing from behind.
It's not just Perkins; my Swiss brother Sefolosha is part of that problem, too. Normally, the idea is that Sefolosha can set the tone by guarding the opponent's best perimeter scorer. But the Mavs' best perimeter scorer, Jason Terry, comes off the bench; he and Sefolosha have shared the court for only 16 of the 57 minutes that Sefolosha has played in this series. This, again, gets back to the story line above -- the poor alignment between the Thunder's usual rotation and the spots in which they'd be most effective against Dallas.
A better way to match up their minutes would be to bring Thabo off the bench so he can check Terry. The first instinct is to say, "Start James Harden!" but I can see the logic for bringing him of the pine -- he's the go-to guy with the second unit, and besides he turns into a shrinking violet sometimes when he shares the pine with Durant and Westbrook. (Twice in Game 3 he wasn't even looking for the ball when Westbrook passed it to him.)
Starting Cook, on the other hand, is a nice way to occupy the six minutes of each half until Harden checks in. Cook will space the floor for Durant and Westbrook, making it easier for both, and nonscorer DeShawn Stevenson isn't going to take advantage of him defensively. Then Sefolosha, in turn, can enter the game in Cook's role -- playing with the small-ball unit, checking Dirk Nowitzki if the big men have fouls and subbing in for Kevin Durant when that is needed.
• Chicago: Play small when Boozer is out of the game. The Bulls go small as a rarely as any team in the league, but they should consider changing that tactic in Game 4 for a few reasons.
For starters, their hand may be forced: With Chef Linguini questionable for Game 4, the Bulls would either be down to a three-man frontcourt rotation or leaning on 97-year-old Kurt Thomas to give them minutes off the pine. Playing Luol Deng at the 4 with Kyle Korver and Ronnie Brewer on the wings would help ease that strain.
Second, Chicago's small lineup was really effective in limited opportunities this season. It's a small sample (248 minutes), but when the Bulls went Deng-Korver-Brewer at the 4, 3 and 2 spots, respectively, they outscored opponents by 16 points per 48 minutes.
It's about the only way to get Korver back in the series and generate enough offense to win some games. At the moment they can hardly play Korver because of the defensive matchups; in their standard alignment with two big men, he has to guard either Dwyane Wade or LeBron James and is hopelessly overmatched against both. That, along with a recent shooting slump, is why he only played 11 minutes in Game 3.
With Deng and Brewer flanking him, Korver can find a more suitable matchup, even if Miami's two star wings are on the floor -- against Anthony, for example, or Mike Miller.
And if Korver plays with Deng and Brewer, they might actually score once in a while. Chicago's defend-at-all-costs system has served it very well in an overachieving regular season, but we've seen its limitations in the playoffs, even before the conference finals. The Bulls' current M.O. of having the second unit play for a scoreless tie in the middle six minutes of each half isn't going to cut it against Miami; a smaller, more floor-spacing look is the elixir.