So what do the Jets have to do to come off the canvas and make the playoff grid in the last two weeks? First and foremost, they must merely defeat the Colts, undefeated, coming off a 10-day layoff since their last win, on the fast track of Lucas Oil Stadium.
Tall order.
If that gets done, the Jets must close out the regular season with a home win over Cincinnati. Those are Jobs 1 and 1-A.
So what else has to happen should the Jets get to 9-7? Let's assume the Baltimore Ravens (8-6) hold onto their first wild card position. Then for the Jets to get the second wild card, all three of these things must happen:
■ Miami (7-7) must lose one of its last two, home games against Houston (7-7) and Pittsburgh (7-7). The Jets still must get a game ahead of the Dolphins to get out of the AFC East for their "match of cards" against other interdivisional wild-card opponents.
■ Jacksonville (7-7) must lose one of its last two, road games at New England (9-5) and Cleveland (3-11). The Jaguars are still poison to the Jets but only if Baltimore maintains that top WC spot. More on that later.
■ Denver (8-6) must lose one of its last two, at Philadelphia (10-4) and home vs. Kansas City (3-11). Reasons for this are below.
If the Jets finish 9-7 and finally pass by the Dolphins at 8-8, they will likely enter the three-or-more-clubs wild card tiebreaker for clubs from different divisions. In order the tiebreaking criteria are:
■ Head-to-head sweep, which applies only if one team has defeated each of the other clubs or lost to each of the others.
■ Conference record.
■ Record in common games, minimum of four.
■ Strength of victory.
■ Strength of schedule.
The permutations are still many. But let's set up this scenario to show one possibility that even allows Jacksonville into the mix.
Let's say the Jets put it all together the final two games to finish 9-7. The Jags also win two to finish 9-7. The Dolphins fall to 8-8. Pittsburgh and Baltimore come in at 9-7 (with the Steelers getting the home win over the Ravens this Sunday). And Denver (loss at Philly, win over KC) comes in at 9-7.
First Pittsburgh is eliminated from the equation due to a worse AFC North record than Baltimore. Skip head-to-head sweep (Jets didn't play BAL or DEN). The Jaguars would have the best conference record at 8-4 and so would be the first wild card.
Back to first tiebreaker for the Jets, Baltimore and Denver. All have the same conference record at 7-5.
It comes down to winning percentage in games against common opponents, minimum of four. In fact, the Jets, Ravens and Broncos will have played four common opponents: Cincinnati, Indianapolis, New England and Oakland. The Ravens' record in games against those four would be 1-4. The Broncos' record would be 2-2.
The Jets' record would be 4-1. Second wild card to the Jets.
Give J-ville a loss and an 8-8 record and in the above scenario the Jets could then be playing for the first wild card. But let's not get ahead of ourselves.
The above is unofficial. Let me know if you think something's missing or you want to add to the discussion.
Jets head coach Rex Ryan will be speaking with reporters around 4:30 p.m. today. We'll stream his news conference live as usual and I'll have one more blog on Rex's remarks later today.
Good luck with all that.
I would say let's tank the last 2 games, but we've been doing that for most of the season
