Stock Watch: International players
Tuesday, February 9, 2010 |
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Posted by Chad Ford
The international revolution that started in 1997 is fizzling.Although international basketball players continue to find some successcoming up through the college ranks, the leap from international ballstraight to the NBA has been a rocky one of late.
In 1997,a record 12 international players with no NCAA experience were taken inthe NBA draft, the first time that number cracked double digits. In1998,
Dirk Nowitzki became the first international player to be drafted in the top 10.
TheNBA hit another milestone in 2000 when a record seven internationalplayers went in the first round and a total of 14 were drafted. 2001was another highlight when
Pau Gasol became the first international player to be taken in the top five. In 2002,
Yao Mingdid him one better by becoming the first international player to go No.1 without having played in college. In 2003, a record 21 internationalplayers (more than one-third of the draft) were selected, including awhopping nine in the first round. 2004 delivered another 20international players in the draft.
However, after anumber of the players in the 2003 and 2004 drafts struggled, the trendbegan to reverse in 2005. Only 14 international players were draftedthat year, and only four of them cracked the first round.
In 2006, the number rebounded to 16, and
Andrea Bargnanibecame the second player to go straight from the international ranks tothe No. 1 overall pick. In 2007, the number dipped to 12 internationalplayers, the lowest since 2001. 2008 was even lower with just 11players drafted and only four in the first round -- on par with the1999 draft. And for the first time in a while, the U.S. cleaned upagainst international teams in summer competitions.
In2009, things stayed about the same. Eleven international players weredrafted in the first round. Just two of the five international playerstaken in the first round --
Omri Casspi and
Rodrigue Beaubois-- actually made the trip straight to the NBA. Casspi has been arevelation, while Beaubois is still a work in progress. Onesecond-rounder, Sweden's
Jonas Jerebko, also is making an impact.
Thisyear, things aren't looking any more hopeful. In fact, our initialsurvey of scouts uncovered just three international players withfirst-round potential. Now, that's not totally atypical for February.During the next few months, NBA scouts and GMs will be combing Europe,and surely a few more names will emerge. But for now, here's who's hotand who's not in the draft.
Also, be sure to check out our
updated Top 100 and our
Lottery Mock Draft Machine.
[h3]Stock up[/h3]
Donatas Motiejunas, F, Lithuania
Everyyear since 2001, at least one international player has been selected inthe lottery. Some of them have been great. Others not so much. Thisyear it looks as though the streak will continue. Lithuanian forwardDonatas Motiejunas had his coming-out party last season. He averagednearly 20 points per game for his team in Lithuania, impressed scoutsat the Nike Hoop Summit in Portland in April and followed with a solidsummer, averaging 17.3 points and eight rebounds for Lithuania in theunder-19 world championships.
Motiejunas' current seasonhas been a mixed bag. On the one hand, his numbers have not beenspectacular. Motiejunas moved from a team in Lithuania to BenettonTreviso in Italy. It was a major upgrade in competition but also lefthim without a starting job, and his numbers inevitably declined. Forthe season, he's averaging 8.3 ppg and 3.3 rpg and is shooting 51percent from the field in about 20 minutes per game in Eurocup play.
However,there is good news. Motiejunas seems to be finding his stride a bit,and more recently he's started putting up better numbers. He now cracksthe starting lineup on occasion and has put in some impressiveperformances of late. In a recent game versus Bizkaia Bilbao,Motiejunas had 17 points, 5 rebounds, 4 assists and 3 steals in aseason-high 30 minutes.
Motiejunas continues to showoffensive potential. His strength is putting the ball on the floor andgetting to the basket. He also is improving as a low-post presence,although his lack of strength clearly inhibits him from dominating downthere. Motiejunas is still a streaky shooter with questionable 3-pointrange. His free throw shooting has been horrendous. But scouts love hismotor, aggressiveness and feel. With time, they believe he could be astar.
One major question with Motiejunas is whether he'llactually declare for the draft this year. He has one year left on hiscontract with Benetton, and sources say he's considering staying theextra year to continue to build strength and experience.
Ifhe does declare, every GM we spoke with has him ranked somewhere in thelottery. A few have him in the top eight. Others have him in the latelottery. We've split the difference and have him ranked at No. 9 on ourlatest Big Board.
Jan Vesely, PF, Czech Republic
MostEuropean big men get stereotyped as fundamentally sound players withgreat basketball IQ -- code for "unathletic stiff." Vesely breaks themold. He's an athletic big man who relies on hustle, not fundamentals,to do his damage. A big game against the
Phoenix Suns during the preseason got NBA scouts excited about his potential.
Buthe couldn't possibly live up to the hype that one game generated.Instead of having a breakout season, he's been solid in Euroleague playthis year for his team, KK Partizan. He's averaging 7.5 ppg and 4.4 rpgin 22 mpg. Those numbers won't wow anyone, but they are solid for aplayer his age in Europe.
Vesely is versatile. He can playthree positions and excels at running the floor in transition. He willcrash the offensive glass and is one of those players who rarely takesoff a play. He doesn't have any one particular skill that stands out.He's a solid shooter but needs to improve his 3-point range. He can goinside on occasion but needs to improve his footwork. Now that Partizanhas advanced to top-16 play in the Euroleague, his numbers haveimproved to 13 ppg and 10.5 rpg in 37 mpg.
Vesely is stillpopular with a number of NBA scouts and GMs who feel that on anup-tempo team, he could be a real contributor. Right now we have himranked as a late first-round pick. But if he can continue to put up thenumbers he's posted in top-16 play, he still has a chance of crackingthe lottery.
Robin Benzing, SF, Germany
Benzingmade his presence known at the European under-20 championships thispast summer in Greece. He averaged 22 ppg, 5 rpg and 2 apg, shot 53percent from the field and 41 percent from 3 for the tournament. Notimpressed yet? Consider this: His teammate on Team Germany wasGonzaga's
Elias Harris.Harris, considered a late lottery to mid-first-round pick by manyscouts, was solid, averaging 14 ppg and 6.4 rpg. But most of the NBAscouts in attendance thought Benzing might actually be a betterprospect.
Benzing is a classic small forward who excelson offense. He can score from just about anywhere. He has NBA 3-pointrange on his jumper and uses his quickness to take guys off thedribble. He needs to add a lot of strength and isn't an elite athlete,but for what he does well, he should be able to crack the first roundif he declares for the draft.
Tomas Satoransky, G, Czech Republic
Satoranskywas the best player at the Reebok Eurocamp last season. He's just 18years old but plays as if he's 5 years older. He's skinny and stilllooks like a teenager, but when he's on the floor, he makes thingshappen. He has a way of getting his hands on just about everything.
Satoranskyis playing in Spain this season for Seville and isn't getting realminutes for his club. But a number of NBA GMs and scouts I spoke withstill think very highly of him. "If he were to declare," oneinternational NBA scout told me, "I'm not sure how you could justifypassing on him after the lottery. The kid is just a terrific player. Heknows how to play."
Right now we have Satoransky ranked inthe second round, but as we get closer to the draft, internationalplayers tend to rise. I definitely could see a team taking a flier onhim late in the first round and then stashing him over in Europe fordevelopment for a few more years.
Mario Delas, F, Croatia
Delasis far from a household name, but a number of NBA scouts insist hewould be a first-round pick if the draft were held today. He was theMVP of the under-19 championships this past summer and is now playingon a big stage with Zalgiris in the Euroleague. Although Delas doesn'tget the same publicity that Motiejunas and Vesely do, he's had a solidseason of his own in Croatia. Delas got off to a hot start forZalgiris, scoring 14 points in 20 minutes in his first game.
Delasis a combo forward who can play both the 3 and the 4. He's an emergingjump shooter who looks as though he might have deep range. When he'splaying the 4, he uses quickness and craftiness to outmaneuver bigger,stronger players.
What Delas lacks right now is strength.Some scouts consider him a little soft. Others feel he'll be fine oncehe hits the weight room. He's also not an off-the-charts athlete, whichhurts his draft ceiling. I think his range is somewhere between 20 and40 right now. We have him closer to 40, but international players tendto rise as we get closer to the draft, so we'll be keeping an eye onhim.
[h3]Stock down[/h3]
Vladimir Dasic, F, Serbia
Dasicalways has looked the part of an NBA player. He's athletic, has NBAstrength and great size for his position. But his production has neverlived up to his promise. That holds true again this year. Dasicsurprisingly pulled out of last year's draft, after a solid performancein the Reebok Euroleague camp, to sign a contract with Real Madrid.
Theupside is Dasic is now playing against the best competition in Europe.The downside, and it's a big downside, is that he doesn't play much ofa role. He's averaging just 3.5 ppg in Euroleague play.
Althoughit's not impossible for Dasic to be drafted somewhere in the secondround this year, I think the days of his being considered a first-roundpick are now over.
Tomislav Zubcic, F, Croatia
Zubcicwas the other player alongside Motiejunas who impressed NBA scouts atthe Nike Hoop Summit in April. Zubcic, despite standing 6-foot-11, wasthe primary ball handler for the international team and was a keycatalyst in an upset win for the World team.
Zubcicreturned to Croatia this season with enormous expectations, but theresults have been pretty underwhelming. He's averaging just 2 ppg inEuroleague play for Cibona and still needs to add strength. But mostimportantly, he just isn't getting minutes against great competition.Although NBA scouts are still very intrigued, it looks like he's goingto need at least one more season in Europe before you can start talkingabout him as a legit first-round pick.
[h3]The midrange game[/h3]
[*] This year's international crop looks weak, but there are a couple of names worth remembering for 2011.
Thefirst is 17-year-old Jonas Valanciunas. Valanciunas is a 6-11 big manwho plays primarily in the post. He needs to add strength andexperience, but few players have been as impressive as he's been atsuch a young age.
The other player to keep an eye on isSwiss big man Enes Kanter, who despite being just 17 is getting minutesin Euroleague play a la Ricky Rubio. Kanter is a rebounding machine whois wowing scouts with his maturity. It doesn't sound as though Kanteris a high-lottery prospect, but he's one of the few young players inEurope with any real productivity at the moment.
[*]As we foreshadowed the past two weeks, two college big men are making big strides up our Big Board.
Kentucky big man
DeMarcus Cousinsjust put up his sixth straight double-double on Saturday. Hisconsistency on the floor is quickly overshadowing concerns about himoff the floor. More and more GMs are telling me that they'd likelyoverlook some of the concerns about his work ethic and temper on draftnight.
There just aren't many NBA-ready big men who canscore and rebound like Cousins can. The fact that many NBA guys believeCousins can be a full-time center in the NBA is also helping his cause.With other big man prospects such as
Derrick Favors and
Ed Davisfailing to live up to the high expectations they had coming into theseason, Cousins is now looking like he's passing them on the board.It's no longer inconceivable that he could end up as the No. 2 pick.The only player (from a production standpoint) who has an argument togo ahead of him is Ohio State's
Evan Turner. However, Cousins plays a more coveted position. We currently have him at No. 3 on our Big Board.
The other big man regaining favor with NBA GMs and scouts is Georgetown's
Greg Monroe.I wrote last week about why I felt Monroe might end up getting draftedhigher than people thought. Apparently many GMs agree with me. I spokewith a number of people drafting in the mid-to-late lottery, and theytold me they would seriously consider Monroe. Although his motor is aquestion mark, he has too many skills in the post to ignore. He hasmoved all the way up to No. 10 on our Big Board.
[*]
That's the funniest gif I've seen in a while.
