NT: Sportsbook Thread

[supersaiyan415]

dammit bama. smh at me for rinding on what they did the game before. shouldve bet against the public.

 

[maxelite]

Boise St needs style points. I don't think there's anyway they dont beat Toledo by less than 35.

 

[nikepennyiv]

I lost on Bama today but I hit the Msu ML and Arkansas -5.5. I'm on Oregon right now so it looks like I'll be 2-2 for the day, I'm adding FSU +6 later to try for over .500 today.

I'm gonna add Red Wings +125 @ Blackhawks as well, I think theyre going to be the team to beat this year and I don't trust Turco at all.

 

[ThaxbyChamblis]

Originally Posted by 651akathePaul

Originally Posted by 651akathePaul

Originally Posted by fraij da 5 11

89% of the public is on Oregon right now.

You guys need to stay away from that game. Despite what you see on the ticker, Washington State has been playing much better of late and their QB is getting into somewhat of a rhythm.

Tack on Oregon coming off of that high versus Stanford, you might be surprised when WSU covers. Oregon will win, but I'd stay away.

I'm just sayin...
  

Since I'm on fire right now, I'll go ahead and reiterate that you heard it here first.

I didn't see your post until after I made my pick .

 

[ValarMorghulis]

Hit with Mich st and arkansas just waiting on Cam to get these Tigers in gear and I win...

Considering taking Florida st... We'll see

 

[4wrestling]

Originally Posted by 651akathePaul

Originally Posted by 651akathePaul

This afternoon:

Michigan St. (+4.5) vs. Michigan
Arkansas (-5) vs. Texas A&M
Clemson vs. UNC (-2.5)



Michigan St (+4.5) vs. Michigan:

I don't see any reason to roll with Michigan today other than Denard Robinson, but that's not enough for me. Their defense is horrendous and Michigan State is solid on both sides of the ball. They can get the few key stops that Indiana could not last week, but the selling point is that Michigan St. can control the clock on the ground and if it comes down to it, can throw the ball to keep the pace with Denard. MSU straight up.

Arkansas (-6) vs. Texas A&M:

Interesting stat I've heard. BCS teams coming off of a bye week only cover 50% of their games the following week. Texas A&M can be tough, but I would go against Arkansas only if it were actually being played at Texas A&M's place. This game is on a nuetral field and A&M's secondary is a bit suspect. Mallett will take advantage of both and get Arkansas back on track

6-0 so far today boys. My picks have been on point and going much the way I anticipated. At this point, I'm just hoping to let the good times roll.

This evening:

Oregon State (+8.5) vs. Arizona
Florida State (+6) vs. Miami
Northwestern (-8.5) vs. Purdue
Arizona State vs. Washington (Pick 'em)
USC vs. Stanford (-10)
Auburn (-6) vs. Kentucky


  

Great day.  Good luck on everything except Auburn

 

[651akathepaul]

If anyone was thinking of betting Arizona St/Washington keep this in mind.

It's raining here in Seattle and the boys from Arizona might not like that. It could also force Locker NOT to throw, which only helps out Washington, because then he'll rely on his instincts, which Sark has taken away in trying to get this dude ready for the NFL. He's not a pocket passer.

That is all.

 

[4wrestling]

Originally Posted by 4wrestling

Originally Posted by Mojodmonky1

damn.... i sat this thread out for a week and it sure took an ugly turn.

not sure if any of yall bet MMA, but for those who have taken an interest in my analysis and picks in the past, here is my unsolicited pick/analysis for this weeks event

BET NICK DIAZ

In my opinion, Diaz v. Noons 1 is not relevant. While Diaz has decent to good cardio, that weight cut to 160 was just a bit too much for him. Fighting as a legit WW, I dont think the cut is going to have as much an effect (if any) this time around. As much as I hate Diaz, I respect his fighting abilities. Even though he may act like a knucklehead in interviews, press conferences, etc... etc.. I honestly believe that he is not a "dumb" fighter. Both Diaz brothers have a knack for getting their opponent to fight their fight, not the other way around. I will admit that I have not seen a ton of KJ Noons before, but what I have seen has not been that impressive.

Looking at KJ's last fights, he was able to out-strike Huen and Gurgel. But neither fighter made a concerted effort to take this fight to the mat. No one is doubting Noons abilities as a boxer/striker. While Nick's unorthodox striking style can be difficult to counter, I would still give the edge to Noons on the feet. The problem is, any advantage that Noons has standing, he more than gives up on the ground. While Diaz doesnt have overwhelming takedowns, Noons (as far as I can tell) does not have a great sprawl or takedown defense of his own. Eventually, Diaz will be able to take this fight to the mat with his guile and size/strength advantage. On the ground, Noons is in dangerous territory. If Diaz can get into top control, it could make for a short night. My only concern is that Diaz tries to get too cute, and passes up the freebie submission just so he can batter Noons a bit. Hopefully his arrogance does not give Noons an extra opportunity to get back to his feet and pull off some sort of KO.

I booked Diaz at -210. Line appears to be in the -230 to -240 range. Personally I think there is still value up to -250. Anything above that I might stay away.

SWAGTISTA IS IN DIAZ'S CORNER.  HE'S NOT LOSING.

Line has dropped to -215.  I'm going to wait and hope it drops a little more before locking in.

 

[fraij da 5 11]

I put a little on it when it was at -250... Probably see what the line is near fight time to see if i wanna put in more.

 

[ValarMorghulis]

Auburn's D looks like trash!

What are our NFL leans this week?

 

[4wrestling]

Originally Posted by fraij da 5 11

I put a little on it when it was at -250... Probably see what the line is near fight time to see if i wanna put in more.

Line is back up to -240 on Bookmaker.  I decided to lay off and just enjoy the fight.

 

[4wrestling]

I was 2 last minute backdoor covers and 1 point in the NBA from having a sweep and absolutely monster day

  Still, nothing to complain about

 

[venom lyrix]

today was a really weird day, the teams that were suppose to win LOST - Bama...

Defense really was non existent today...lots of team gave up way too many pts.

biggest disappointment was Bama...not even close.

I hit a bunch of games today

FSU
Minnesota
Ohio St
Oregon St
MSU
Arkansas

lost
Auburn
Bama
Oregon
Florida

my big winner was the Yankees ML

on to the NFL

 

[goofy08]

went 4-3 today. picks for tmrw

Phils/Reds over 7.5
Braves moneyline
Rays moneyline
Broncos Ravens under 39.5
Jaguars +1
Titans +7

and two small tennis bets

Djokovic/Ferrer under 22 games
Woz/Zvonereva over 21.5 games

 

[nikepennyiv]

I'm on the Lions and Bills tomorrow; the Lions should be able to beat the Rams at home, and I don't think Jacksonville is that good of a team. I'm expecting them to slip up after their big win last week on Scobee's 59 yarder

 

[fraij da 5 11]

K couple lines vs public observations...

10/10/2010 01:00 PM

425 - Green Bay Packers 426 - Washington ********

52261

-1 -112 +1 104

-2.5 -106 +2.5 -102

Line started at GBP -1 and has moved to GBP -2.5 with 83% of people still on GB.

10/10/2010 04:05 PM

429 - New Orleans Saints 430 - Arizona Cardinals

40393

-6.5 -104 +6.5 -104

-6.5 -107 +6.5 -101

Different story here, 82% of the Pub is on NO in this game but the line has not moved an inch.

10/10/2010 04:15 PM

431 - San Diego Chargers 432 - Oakland Raiders

38751

-5.5 -104 +5.5 -104

-6 -110 +6 102

Half point movement here from SD -5.5 to SD -6.

10/10/2010 01:00 PM

419 - Atlanta Falcons 420 - Cleveland Browns

42219

-3 -110 +3 102

-3 -102 +3 -106

No movement in this line with 80% going with ATL on the road.

 

[fraij da 5 11]

10/10/2010 01:00 PM

427 - New York Giants 428 - Houston Texans

41612

+3.5 -120 -3.5 111

+3 104 -3 -113

70% are on HOU but the line moved the other way?

 

[venom lyrix]

MLB

Rays
Giants
Phillies

 

[aztec06jr]

Anyone use 5dimes? If not, what other sites accept debit cards to fund an account? Trying to place some bets for today's games, thanks guys.

 

[the sauna]

I use 5dimes... they accept my debit card...

 

[supersaiyan415]

1st pitch being a strike by the home team is money in the playoffs

 

[4wrestling]

Plays for today:

ATL -3.0 -105 ***
BUF ML -130 ***
JAX u 20.0 -115 ** (team total)
GBP -2.5 -110 **

ML Parlay
CIN -300, SDC -265 **

Tonight:
PHI +3.0 +110 *


Other games I like but am not betting....
Det -3.0, Car -3.0, Nyg +3.0, Oak +6.5 (think SD wins but close game)

Good luck to everyone today!!!

 

[4wrestling]

Originally Posted by fraij da 5 11

K couple lines vs public observations...

10/10/2010 01:00 PM

425 - Green Bay Packers 426 - Washington ********

52261

-1 -112 +1 104

-2.5 -106 +2.5 -102

Line started at GBP -1 and has moved to GBP -2.5 with 83% of people still on GB.

10/10/2010 04:05 PM

429 - New Orleans Saints 430 - Arizona Cardinals

40393

-6.5 -104 +6.5 -104

-6.5 -107 +6.5 -101

Different story here, 82% of the Pub is on NO in this game but the line has not moved an inch.

10/10/2010 04:15 PM

431 - San Diego Chargers 432 - Oakland Raiders

38751

-5.5 -104 +5.5 -104

-6 -110 +6 102

Half point movement here from SD -5.5 to SD -6.

10/10/2010 01:00 PM

419 - Atlanta Falcons 420 - Cleveland Browns

42219

-3 -110 +3 102

-3 -102 +3 -106

No movement in this line with 80% going with ATL on the road.

I love looking at these numbers and take them into account.  However, one thing I've learned from other forums... These %'s show the # of bets.  They don't NOT tell you the volume of $$$.  So just because a team has a large % of bets, the minority may be pounding them with lots of $$$ which can account for some of the strange line moves.  Just another thing to take into account

 

[venom lyrix]

Packers -3
Falcons -3
Bengals ML
Colts ML
Cowboys ML
Rams +3
Ravens ML
Chargers -6.5

 

[nikepennyiv]

Originally Posted by 4wrestling

Originally Posted by fraij da 5 11

K couple lines vs public observations...

10/10/2010 01:00 PM

425 - Green Bay Packers 426 - Washington ********

52261

-1 -112 +1 104

-2.5 -106 +2.5 -102

Line started at GBP -1 and has moved to GBP -2.5 with 83% of people still on GB.

10/10/2010 04:05 PM

429 - New Orleans Saints 430 - Arizona Cardinals

40393

-6.5 -104 +6.5 -104

-6.5 -107 +6.5 -101

Different story here, 82% of the Pub is on NO in this game but the line has not moved an inch.

10/10/2010 04:15 PM

431 - San Diego Chargers 432 - Oakland Raiders

38751

-5.5 -104 +5.5 -104

-6 -110 +6 102

Half point movement here from SD -5.5 to SD -6.

10/10/2010 01:00 PM

419 - Atlanta Falcons 420 - Cleveland Browns

42219

-3 -110 +3 102

-3 -102 +3 -106

No movement in this line with 80% going with ATL on the road.

I love looking at these numbers and take them into account.  However, one thing I've learned from other forums... These %'s show the # of bets.  They don't NOT tell you the volume of $$$.  So just because a team has a large % of bets, the minority may be pounding them with lots of $$$ which can account for some of the strange line moves.  Just another thing to take into account

Yup you have to take into account the $$$ amounts as well. Usually if you see a team has a high % of the bets on it but the line isn't moving at all (or is moving the other way) that means the "smart money" (large individual wagers) are being made on the other team.

Also I am wondering why I bet Buffalo again after that fiasco against the Jets. I'm honestly wondering if they could go 0-16, they are absolutely terrible and don't have any easy games left other than Cleveland at home