Originally Posted by Mojodmonky1
damn.... i sat this thread out for a week and it sure took an ugly turn.
not sure if any of yall bet MMA, but for those who have taken an interest in my analysis and picks in the past, here is my unsolicited pick/analysis for this weeks event
BET NICK DIAZ
In my opinion, Diaz v. Noons 1 is not relevant. While Diaz has decent to good cardio, that weight cut to 160 was just a bit too much for him. Fighting as a legit WW, I dont think the cut is going to have as much an effect (if any) this time around. As much as I hate Diaz, I respect his fighting abilities. Even though he may act like a knucklehead in interviews, press conferences, etc... etc.. I honestly believe that he is not a "dumb" fighter. Both Diaz brothers have a knack for getting their opponent to fight their fight, not the other way around. I will admit that I have not seen a ton of KJ Noons before, but what I have seen has not been that impressive.
Looking at KJ's last fights, he was able to out-strike Huen and Gurgel. But neither fighter made a concerted effort to take this fight to the mat. No one is doubting Noons abilities as a boxer/striker. While Nick's unorthodox striking style can be difficult to counter, I would still give the edge to Noons on the feet. The problem is, any advantage that Noons has standing, he more than gives up on the ground. While Diaz doesnt have overwhelming takedowns, Noons (as far as I can tell) does not have a great sprawl or takedown defense of his own. Eventually, Diaz will be able to take this fight to the mat with his guile and size/strength advantage. On the ground, Noons is in dangerous territory. If Diaz can get into top control, it could make for a short night. My only concern is that Diaz tries to get too cute, and passes up the freebie submission just so he can batter Noons a bit. Hopefully his arrogance does not give Noons an extra opportunity to get back to his feet and pull off some sort of KO.
I booked Diaz at -210. Line appears to be in the -230 to -240 range. Personally I think there is still value up to -250. Anything above that I might stay away.
