***$$$-NT Sportsbook Thread vol.2- Props props props props props props... EVERYBODY!

RoOk said:
Romo the God :pimp:

Still eerie how Vegas knows the perfect number for O/U's man
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It seems like it but then when you tease some o/u's some off the wall ish happens. I had a teaser taking the under in the Seahawks game, i thought it was going to be a tight/low scoring game :smh:
 
Super T1ght said:
Wow Rook :wow: :lol:
Had the over too but not a parlay waiting on it lol

Nice job
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Thanks man! Hit on a 5 play:

Dolphins -3
Bills - ML
Carolina -3
Cardinals -2
DAL/NYG - O/U 51

And I have that exact same parlay with the Vikings -2 tomorrow on a different bet.
 
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Not that eerie, they just have figured out a formula combining certain team stats and it's better than anything else available. Obviously an incentive to not make it available. For how often O/U's are - fairly frequently - a point or two off, there's something else entirely they are privy to.

Same concerns are starting to bubble up with Catapault and the way teams are able to monitor the stress level on the body of their players better than they ever have before (and what it means in terms of when a player should ideally return from an injury, exact pinpointed data on the risk of another injury elsewhere due to compensation, etc.). And it's all in big data-form, task at hand right now is how to get the best use out of all the readings and not misreading data and then acting on it). Bit of hoarding going on because people realize the usability, but in the case of the Vegas bookmakers and what they have that we don't? They moved past usability to monetization. :lol:
 
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I feel just unlucky about that SNF game. Cowboys were better, but kept giving it away...Oh well. It was entertaining for sure though. :lol:
 
I hit a $285 five-team parlay if the Seahawks had beaten the Rams for the ML.

1200


Won $28 today, if Seattle wins it's $313 :lol:
 
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Hit on 4 out of 5 games, not bad at all. Hit on Miami, GB, Jets, Chiefs. Seattle lost for me.

Someone please explain what I'm missing on this Eagles/Falcons line. Eagles -3. I don't get it. I know oddsmakers are smart but I'm confused. Feel like Philly is gonna smoke them. Thinking about putting decent cash in philly. Thoughts anyone???
 
tripleplusone said:
Hit on 4 out of 5 games, not bad at all. Hit on Miami, GB, Jets, Chiefs. Seattle lost for me.

Someone please explain what I'm missing on this Eagles/Falcons line. Eagles -3. I don't get it. I know oddsmakers are smart but I'm confused. Feel like Philly is gonna smoke them. Thinking about putting decent cash in philly. Thoughts anyone???
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First, just look at yesterday and all the home dogs that were actually good teams or teams more evenly matched. Buffalo and the Rams, specifically. If the line looks fishy for a team that you feel should roll and their a road favorite, that tells you something is up. As I mentioned yesterday, Vegas knows this and they know the heavy action they can get with a team like the Eagles. It also needs to be taken into consideration that Monday Night lines can be skewed a bit too as it's the most heaviest bet game of the week. Public will chase for a win if they got hit hard during the weekend. Vegas knows its stuff on most games, but if any that they need to get right, it's Monday Night games.

To the actual game itself -- These teams are fairly similar. Falcons looked bad last year, but their offense was still a high producing unit. They can score points and they have a great deal of talent to do it against any team. They're at home. Crowd will be rocking. First game of the season, at home, on MNF. I got both of these teams in the playoffs, but one of them has to lose and since I see these teams as being closer to equal right now than anything, I do not want to touch this game. The team who wins could do so by 7 or by 3, but regardless, it could come down to who has the ball last and that's not a promising bet if the spread is sitting at low number like 3.


I have a few thoughts on the other game tonight and I'll post that a bit later.
 
651akathePaul said:
First, just look at yesterday and all the home dogs that were actually good teams or teams more evenly matched. Buffalo and the Rams, specifically. If the line looks fishy for a team that you feel should roll and their a road favorite, that tells you something is up. As I mentioned yesterday, Vegas knows this and they know the heavy action they can get with a team like the Eagles. It also needs to be taken into consideration that Monday Night lines can be skewed a bit too as it's the most heaviest bet game of the week. Public will chase for a win if they got hit hard during the weekend. Vegas knows its stuff on most games, but if any that they need to get right, it's Monday Night games.

To the actual game itself -- These teams are fairly similar. Falcons looked bad last year, but their offense was still a high producing unit. They can score points and they have a great deal of talent to do it against any team. They're at home. Crowd will be rocking. First game of the season, at home, on MNF. I got both of these teams in the playoffs, but one of them has to lose and since I see these teams as being closer to equal right now than anything, I do not want to touch this game. The team who wins could do so by 7 or by 3, but regardless, it could come down to who has the ball last and that's not a promising bet if the spread is sitting at low number like 3.


I have a few thoughts on the other game tonight and I'll post that a bit later.
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My thoughts exactly on the PHI/ATL game. I was thinking over may be the play, but this is Week 1 and offenses may not be moving as well. That Cowboys/Giants game had no business going over last night :lol: , but I am happy for the W Rook. :pimp:
 
651akathePaul said:
First, just look at yesterday and all the home dogs that were actually good teams or teams more evenly matched. Buffalo and the Rams, specifically. If the line looks fishy for a team that you feel should roll and their a road favorite, that tells you something is up. As I mentioned yesterday, Vegas knows this and they know the heavy action they can get with a team like the Eagles. It also needs to be taken into consideration that Monday Night lines can be skewed a bit too as it's the most heaviest bet game of the week. Public will chase for a win if they got hit hard during the weekend. Vegas knows its stuff on most games, but if any that they need to get right, it's Monday Night games.

To the actual game itself -- These teams are fairly similar. Falcons looked bad last year, but their offense was still a high producing unit. They can score points and they have a great deal of talent to do it against any team. They're at home. Crowd will be rocking. First game of the season, at home, on MNF. I got both of these teams in the playoffs, but one of them has to lose and since I see these teams as being closer to equal right now than anything, I do not want to touch this game. The team who wins could do so by 7 or by 3, but regardless, it could come down to who has the ball last and that's not a promising bet if the spread is sitting at low number like 3.


I have a few thoughts on the other game tonight and I'll post that a bit later.
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Thanks for the input and i agree with everything u said.  I still think philly got it.  I think i will still bet philly….Fingers crossed.

Interested about your thoughts about the Vikings/49ers.  I will stay far away from that since I'm a Die hard niners fan, and by your avi i see your a vikes fan.  I am hoping for a decent season but not sure thats gonna happen.  Plus i can never bet on my team.
 
Im also thinking a split with 2 soft lines and pub action on both road favs. No major leans for nfl....will concentrate on mlb today.
 
On Atlanta tonight for the Vegas perspective that @651akathePaul  gave plus in my eyes if there is a week to bet against Philly it'd be week 1.

In my eyes expectations for the Eagles are a bit too high. New qb and skill players under a quirky Chip Kelly offense playing in Atlanta (typically a tough place to play) against a team looking to revitalize some defensive toughness under Dan Quinn. Quinn's had over a month to prepare for Kelly's offense and I'm not quite sold on Philly to come out clicking on all cylinders offensively week 1. Yes this group is talented but it'll take a week or 2 until this unit gels and produces the way everyone thinks they will.

Ill take the team looking for a culture change under a brilliant defensive minded coach at home against a hyped up Philly team who's offense features a quarterback who hasn't played a full season since 2012.
 
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Let me get this in here right quick before the day gets away from me...

I'll preface this by saying I'm looking at this in the most objective way I can, being that I'm a Vikings fan. What I would say is that I do know this team pretty well, so that can be looked at as an advantage. My roommate is also a Niners fan, so...we talk.


When I first looked at this game for capping, I figured I needed to address the unknown. There are more than one. The biggest, of course, being the transformation of the 49ers roster. There is so much we do not know about how this bunch of guys really play together. Specifically, on defense. We can guess or assume, but we don't know. The assumption by most is they won't be nearly as good. I agree to a point, as you're not going to lose all those guys and get better or anything, but I'm also not going to sit here and say they're incapable of playing great football. The thing I'm coupling my idea of how this game goes is the fact that Minnesota is significantly better at the skill positions on offense. There's no question. I won't spend time on the additions and what not, you know that, but I'm bringing it up, because I think the edge goes to Minnesota for sure. My pause for caution is that the Vikings have lost two starting lineman, one of which was recent, and it levels out to some degree the full potential of what this Vikings offense can really do. Do they give up a key 3rd down sack? Less running room for AP? You have to factor it in as happening, you just don't know when it will. To sum up: I think Minnesota can and will score, but how much they score all depends on the balancing of those lineman being out with how the Niner defense plays collectively for the first real time after losing so many key contributors.

If you want an AP-factor mentioned, I would say it helps a lot, but by help I don't mean he's running for 200 yards or anything. Maybe, but there's a rust factor to consider and his first and only game last season after not playing one down in preseason, he looked...Ok. It was against a tough Lions D, but it's something to consider as not only did he miss just about all of last year, but he didn't see any time in the preseason once again. He will be running angry, but running really hard and getting back that "feel" can be two different things. Give AP the benefit of the doubt on that one if you want, but just make sure you consider it.


Other side of the ball: Minnesota's defense greatly improved last year and they should continue to excel this year. Honestly, I think they can smother SF's offense. My concern is Kaepernick. If they restrict him to the pocket, it's a wrap. Easier said than done though and if he gets a running lane, he will hurt the Vikings. I'm factoring in that he will slip through the cracks a few times, which keeps them in the game. I also think Hyde can have a good game. I won't say great, but he can do enough to move the chains. He won't be able to do it all though, which is where Kaepernick comes into play. If you think he gets loose more often than not, then maybe you should roll with SF. I'm trusting Zimmer's defensive mind and the speed and talent Minnesota has that can limit Kaep's ability to dominate on the ground. I think Rhodes locks up whomever he's on. LOCKS UP! Since about the midway point of last year, he has looked like a top cover corner in the NFL. Harrison Smith is an underrated safety due to lack of publicity, but he's one of the best in the NFL as well. Anthony Barr is more than athletic enough to cover a TE, so I wouldn't bank on that either.

Be aware that Cordarelle Patterson can take one to the house on any given return and it could be a difference. Sherels had one of the better YPR on punt returns as well.

My pick: Minnesota...But not against the spread. Here's why I'm going ML. I haven't looked today, but when I locked in last night the number was Minnesota -2. Weird number and as I mentioned up top about Vegas really paying attention for these MNF games to win back their action, it looks like they did their homework. Blair Walsh has struggled, to say the least. He missed some FG's, but more concerning, he missed PAT's. If there's a theme from this write-up it's that I'm leveraging my idea that Minnesota could dominate this game with detailed factors that could change a landscape of a game. This is one thing to consider. I'll gladly take reduced juice at -130 for Minny to win straight up, as I think they do win, but also because I can see Blair missing a PAT that sets what I think will be a close game and that sees the Vikings winning by exactly 2. Can't say that definitively, but yes...It's something to think about.

The rest is up to what your own ideas and instincts are when you address the unkowns I mentioned and how much weight you give your opinion on it. Good luck all...


Vikings -130

Book it!
 
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bhzmafia14 said:
What do you think about the Rays against CC? I'm leaning towards TB.
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With cc..hes a wild card...i do like thr semi suspect line kinda beggin for yanks action but it is cc and most bettors are cool on him. Erasmo is usually solid..i just dont trust tampas offense and theyre kinda out of the race...so id lean tampa but im passing. GL.
 
651akathePaul said:
Let me get this in here right quick before the day gets away from me...

I'll preface this by saying I'm looking at this in the most objective way I can, being that I'm a Vikings fan. What I would say is that I do know this team pretty well, so that can be looked at as an advantage. My roommate is also a Niners fan, so...we talk.


When I first looked at this game for capping, I figured I needed to address the unknown. There are more than one. The biggest, of course, being the transformation of the 49ers roster. There is so much we do not know about how this bunch of guys really play together. Specifically, on defense. We can guess or assume, but we don't know. The assumption by most is they won't be nearly as good. I agree to a point, as you're not going to lose all those guys and get better or anything, but I'm also not going to sit here and say they're incapable of playing great football. The thing I'm coupling my idea of how this game goes is the fact that Minnesota is significantly better at the skill positions on offense. There's no question. I won't spend time on the additions and what not, you know that, but I'm bringing it up, because I think the edge goes to Minnesota for sure. My pause for caution is that the Vikings have lost two starting lineman, one of which was recent, and it levels out to some degree the full potential of what this Vikings offense can really do. Do they give up a key 3rd down sack? Less running room for AP? You have to factor it in as happening, you just don't know when it will. To sum up: I think Minnesota can and will score, but how much they score all depends on the balancing of those lineman being out with how the Niner defense plays collectively for the first real time after losing so many key contributors.

If you want an AP-factor mentioned, I would say it helps a lot, but by help I don't mean he's running for 200 yards or anything. Maybe, but there's a rust factor to consider and his first and only game last season after not playing one down in preseason, he looked...Ok. It was against a tough Lions D, but it's something to consider as not only did he miss just about all of last year, but he didn't see any time in the preseason once again. He will be running angry, but running really hard and getting back that "feel" can be two different things. Give AP the benefit of the doubt on that one if you want, but just make sure you consider it.


Other side of the ball: Minnesota's defense greatly improved last year and they should continue to excel this year. Honestly, I think they can smother SF's offense. My concern is Kaepernick. If they restrict him to the pocket, it's a wrap. Easier said than done though and if he gets a running lane, he will hurt the Vikings. I'm factoring in that he will slip through the cracks a few times, which keeps them in the game. I also think Hyde can have a good game. I won't say great, but he can do enough to move the chains. He won't be able to do it all though, which is where Kaepernick comes into play. If you think he gets loose more often than not, then maybe you should roll with SF. I'm trusting Zimmer's defensive mind and the speed and talent Minnesota has that can limit Kaep's ability to dominate on the ground. I think Rhodes locks up whomever he's on. LOCKS UP! Since about the midway point of last year, he has looked like a top cover corner in the NFL. Harrison Smith is an underrated safety due to lack of publicity, but he's one of the best in the NFL as well. Anthony Barr is more than athletic enough to cover a TE, so I wouldn't bank on that either.

Be aware that Cordarelle Patterson can take one to the house on any given return and it could be a difference. Sherels had one of the better YPR on punt returns as well.

My pick: Minnesota...But not against the spread. Here's why I'm going ML. I haven't looked today, but when I locked in last night the number was Minnesota -2. Weird number and as I mentioned up top about Vegas really paying attention for these MNF games to win back their action, it looks like they did their homework. Blair Walsh has struggled, to say the least. He missed some FG's, but more concerning, he missed PAT's. If there's a theme from this write-up it's that I'm leveraging my idea that Minnesota could dominate this game with detailed factors that could change a landscape of a game. This is one thing to consider. I'll gladly take reduced juice at -130 for Minny to win straight up, as I think they do win, but also because I can see Blair missing a PAT that sets what I think will be a close game and that sees the Vikings winning by exactly 2. Can't say that definitively, but yes...It's something to think about.

The rest is up to what your own ideas and instincts are when you address the unkowns I mentioned and how much weight you give your opinion on it. Good luck all...


Vikings -130

Book it!
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Man...this is an excellent write up and although id lean vikes....that early action kinda concerns me...either way...i do like 2 soft lines tonight and excellent value on both road fav MLs...if anything..i may employ a light road fav ml chase system...maybe.
 
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Damn hope the Niners offense does stuff. Loaded up on Props with Niners. Seems too easy to not hit but I didn't know the Vikings got it like that :lol:
 
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