Here is some more fuel to the fire.
Knicks' hope rests with Amare.
Knicks' hope rests with Amare.
Spoiler [+]
The real key to the New York Knicks' success the rest of the season has little to do with the reported rift between Carmelo Anthony and coach Mike D'Antoni, or the performance of young point guard Jeremy Lin. No, the Knicks' 2011-12 fate rests with how much the team can get out of Amare Stoudemire.
Let me explain. I was sitting just a few rows about the court at Madison Square Garden on Sunday for the Knicks' game against the Philadelphia 76ers, and was surprised when I twice heard Lin tell Stoudemire to "Roll!" after a Lin drive.
First, I wondered if Steve Nash had ever needed to ask Stoudemire to roll so he could get a dunk or free throws when the two played together for the Phoenix Suns. But later, after studying the tape and the metrics, I realized that Lin's request for Stoudemire to roll is a symbol for what is plaguing the big man this season. In fact, the operative word going forward for Stoudemire has to be "Move!", as in "cut, dive, attack, jump, slide, show, race." And if he can't do any of those things, the Knicks must do their best to "move" him somewhere else.
When Stoudemire dominates, he does so by combining elite-level athleticism with power, balance, and force of will, plus perhaps the most underrated pair of hands in the league. We've seen big men who have great post moves (Al Jefferson, Tim Duncan, Pau Gasol) but are not special athletes, and big men who move and jump like Stoudemire with similar power (Blake Griffin), or with great quickness and a steady jumpshot (Chris Bosh), making them tough to guard in one-on-one plays in space. But Stoudemire possesses all of those abilities, and even today he still does. Sometimes. That, of course, is the problem.
Here is some of the more concerning evidence. Stoudemire is making 68 percent of his shots near the rim, an improvement over last season and consistent with his career. What these numbers suggest is that he still has bounce in his legs, quickness overall, and as I've seen this season, an improved "crafty" element where he scores by using his length and feel rather than just his vertical jumping skills.
If Stoudemire is still out-maneuvering people with his mind and body, and he is, it means his physical skills are not deteriorating to the point where his whole game has to change. And if his physical skills aren't the problem, then his issues must have more to do with intangibles.
This theory is supported by his awful shooting numbers from everywhere beyond the rim this season. In the last five seasons he's never made less than 45 percent of his shots from 3-9 feet, and this season he's made 29 percent of them. The numbers are not prettier as we get farther from the hoop -- areas that he's been excellent at throughout his career. He's making less than 33 percent from 10 feet out to the 3-point line, and taking more long 2s than he did in his last five seasons before he got to the Knicks.
We also have to look at what he is doing on the defensive end of the court. I see him watching the game an awful lot, certainly more than I expect from a star. And while yes, he has a far better reputation as an offensive player than he does as a defender, he can still create all kinds of chaos on defense when he uses his quickness and length as a helper. He's at a career low in blocked shots and close to one in steals, yet his basketball IQ and quick feet suggest he should be making a bigger impact on defense overall, as so much of playing defense in the NBA has to do with knowing your opponents.
So, what's wrong with Stoudemire? I'll suggest two possibilities: 1.) He's playing through painful legs (knees) as best as he can, or 2.) He's lost his spirit to dominate. I'll let the medical experts focus on the first possibility, although I will add that the evidence is there that for at least large chunks of the game, he's still a dominating physical talent, blowing by defenders and then rising above them. Considering the compacted schedule, his knee issue should not be as relevant next season -- if it's even relevant at all.
The bigger issue is the lack of spirit. I've always questioned why he would ever want to leave Nash's side. They were the best and most symbiotically connected point guard-big man duo since John Stockton and Karl Malone. When he chose to leave, that was a red flag to me.
He seemed to thrive last season in New York, especially when he was the only star in town, but that changed with Anthony's arrival. Using "Game Score" as a metric, 21 of Stoudemire's best 28 games last season came before the Anthony trade, including his top eight. He had nine of his worst 17 games after the trade. It'd be silly to blame Anthony for all of Stoudemire's struggles, but for whatever reason Stoudemire hasn't played his best basketball with Anthony joining him on the court.
The bottom line is this: With Tyson Chandler, Anthony and now Lin on board, the Knicks could at the very least compete with Philadelphia for the division title if Stoudemire played to his talent level. But if not, the Knicks are left to wonder if they will even be a playoff team this season -- and if there's a team out there willing to trade for Stoudemire.
Let me explain. I was sitting just a few rows about the court at Madison Square Garden on Sunday for the Knicks' game against the Philadelphia 76ers, and was surprised when I twice heard Lin tell Stoudemire to "Roll!" after a Lin drive.
First, I wondered if Steve Nash had ever needed to ask Stoudemire to roll so he could get a dunk or free throws when the two played together for the Phoenix Suns. But later, after studying the tape and the metrics, I realized that Lin's request for Stoudemire to roll is a symbol for what is plaguing the big man this season. In fact, the operative word going forward for Stoudemire has to be "Move!", as in "cut, dive, attack, jump, slide, show, race." And if he can't do any of those things, the Knicks must do their best to "move" him somewhere else.
When Stoudemire dominates, he does so by combining elite-level athleticism with power, balance, and force of will, plus perhaps the most underrated pair of hands in the league. We've seen big men who have great post moves (Al Jefferson, Tim Duncan, Pau Gasol) but are not special athletes, and big men who move and jump like Stoudemire with similar power (Blake Griffin), or with great quickness and a steady jumpshot (Chris Bosh), making them tough to guard in one-on-one plays in space. But Stoudemire possesses all of those abilities, and even today he still does. Sometimes. That, of course, is the problem.
Here is some of the more concerning evidence. Stoudemire is making 68 percent of his shots near the rim, an improvement over last season and consistent with his career. What these numbers suggest is that he still has bounce in his legs, quickness overall, and as I've seen this season, an improved "crafty" element where he scores by using his length and feel rather than just his vertical jumping skills.
If Stoudemire is still out-maneuvering people with his mind and body, and he is, it means his physical skills are not deteriorating to the point where his whole game has to change. And if his physical skills aren't the problem, then his issues must have more to do with intangibles.
This theory is supported by his awful shooting numbers from everywhere beyond the rim this season. In the last five seasons he's never made less than 45 percent of his shots from 3-9 feet, and this season he's made 29 percent of them. The numbers are not prettier as we get farther from the hoop -- areas that he's been excellent at throughout his career. He's making less than 33 percent from 10 feet out to the 3-point line, and taking more long 2s than he did in his last five seasons before he got to the Knicks.
We also have to look at what he is doing on the defensive end of the court. I see him watching the game an awful lot, certainly more than I expect from a star. And while yes, he has a far better reputation as an offensive player than he does as a defender, he can still create all kinds of chaos on defense when he uses his quickness and length as a helper. He's at a career low in blocked shots and close to one in steals, yet his basketball IQ and quick feet suggest he should be making a bigger impact on defense overall, as so much of playing defense in the NBA has to do with knowing your opponents.
So, what's wrong with Stoudemire? I'll suggest two possibilities: 1.) He's playing through painful legs (knees) as best as he can, or 2.) He's lost his spirit to dominate. I'll let the medical experts focus on the first possibility, although I will add that the evidence is there that for at least large chunks of the game, he's still a dominating physical talent, blowing by defenders and then rising above them. Considering the compacted schedule, his knee issue should not be as relevant next season -- if it's even relevant at all.
The bigger issue is the lack of spirit. I've always questioned why he would ever want to leave Nash's side. They were the best and most symbiotically connected point guard-big man duo since John Stockton and Karl Malone. When he chose to leave, that was a red flag to me.
He seemed to thrive last season in New York, especially when he was the only star in town, but that changed with Anthony's arrival. Using "Game Score" as a metric, 21 of Stoudemire's best 28 games last season came before the Anthony trade, including his top eight. He had nine of his worst 17 games after the trade. It'd be silly to blame Anthony for all of Stoudemire's struggles, but for whatever reason Stoudemire hasn't played his best basketball with Anthony joining him on the court.
The bottom line is this: With Tyson Chandler, Anthony and now Lin on board, the Knicks could at the very least compete with Philadelphia for the division title if Stoudemire played to his talent level. But if not, the Knicks are left to wonder if they will even be a playoff team this season -- and if there's a team out there willing to trade for Stoudemire.
