L.A. Lakers: 2013-14 Forecast
Sociologists have developed multiple theories to explain the phenomenon of rubbernecking -- why humans are drawn to observing catastrophes as they happen. There may be a form of morbid curiosity at play or the base desire to feel better about our own lives by feeling sympathetic to those in need. Whatever the reasoning, we can't look away. Such was the case with the 2012-13 Los Angeles Lakers.
Surely, never before in the history of the NBA had so many words -- and sound bites -- been expended on such an average team. Of course, that was precisely the issue. After trading for surefire Hall of Famers Steve Nash and Dwight Howard to go with Kobe Bryant and Pau Gasol, the Lakers were supposed to be an elite team. This wasn't just a matter of media hype; SCHOENE pegged the Lakers second in the West (third overall) while John Hollinger's projections had them third.
We've seen teams that looked like contenders unexpectedly collapse before, but never to this extent. Just five games into the season, the Lakers had lost Nash to injury and fired coach Mike Brown, the fastest an NBA coach has gotten the axe since 1971.
The poor start set the tone for a season filled with drama fit for headlines. The ongoing transfer of power to the children of longtime owner Jerry Buss, who passed away in February, added to the chaos.
Under Brown's replacement, Mike D'Antoni, the Lakers didn't climb above .500 for good until March 8 and had to win on the final night of the regular season just to make the playoffs. By that point, Bryant had succumbed to a ruptured Achilles tendon that ended his season. Without him, the Lakers suffered a four-game sweep at the hands of the San Antonio Spurs that was never competitive.
Hanging over everything was Howard's looming free agency and the question of whether a superstar could possibly choose to leave the Lakers in his prime. Turns out the answer is yes. Howard chose the Houston Rockets, leaving the Lakers to pick up the pieces of their shattered championship hopes.
Help isn't on the way until the summer of 2014, when the Lakers have set themselves up for potentially tens of millions in cap space.
In the interim, the hope in L.A. is that less will be more. With Gasol moving back to his natural center position, the Lakers are better suited for D'Antoni's system. But they remain dependent on aging, fragile players, depth is still a problem, and their star is coming back from one of the most devastating injuries possible for an NBA player. Temper expectations accordingly.
2012-13 Recap
Even when expectations for the Lakers were at their peak -- 25 of ESPN.com's 35 prognosticators picked them to win the Western Conference before the season -- there were always questions about how the star-studded group would fit together. Nash and Bryant were both used to dominating the ball, while Howard was coming off back surgery and there was limited depth on the perimeter.
All those issues would bedevil the Lakers from the beginning of the season. An 0-8 preseason suggested how overmatched the reserves might be, and while Howard was in the lineup on opening night, he was clearly less than 100 percent. So too was Gasol, whose ongoing battle with plantar fasciitis made it difficult for him to defend on the perimeter when playing power forward. The Lakers added Nash to their injury list when he suffered a nondisplaced fracture of his left fibula during the season's second game, a loss at Portland.
With players struggling to adapt as Brown attempted to install Princeton offense concepts, the Lakers quickly made the decision to change coaches after a 1-4 start. Assistant Bernie Bickerstaff coached the team to four wins in five games against an easy schedule while GM Mitch Kupchak and executive vice president of basketball operations Jim Buss searched for Brown's replacement. The obvious choice, favored by fans chanting his name at the Staples Center, was bringing back Phil Jackson a little more than a year into his third retirement.
Instead, the Lakers went the opposite direction, hiring D'Antoni in the hopes he and Nash could recreate their high-powered Phoenix offense at a slower pace. D'Antoni's system didn't fit the talent any better than the Princeton. Howard chafed at running pick-and-rolls rather than posting up, Gasol was wasted away from the basket, and Bryant too frequently freelanced to call his own number. With Nash still sidelined, the Lakers started 4-9 under D'Antoni.
The process of building chemistry was undermined by repeated injuries to key players. Gasol missed extended stretches twice before tearing his plantar fascia in early February, costing him more than a month. Howard twice missed games after tearing his shoulder labrum. At one point, Gasol, Howard and backup Jordan Hill (who missed the final 49 games of the regular season with a torn hip labrum) were all injured, leaving the Lakers with only one player on the roster (rookie second-round pick Robert Sacre) taller than 6-foot-10.
Per NBA.com, the Lakers' starting five was intact for just 19 games, playing a grand total of 189 minutes. Some teams could survive those injuries. The Lakers, already perilously thin to begin with, never had a chance. D'Antoni had to start journeyman Earl Clark when Gasol was sidelined, leaving a three-man bench of Steve Blake, Antawn Jamison and Jodie Meeks. The rest of the roster rated worse than replacement level, exposing years of neglect by the Lakers in the draft.
Despite all the injuries and turmoil, by midseason the Lakers started to find an uneasy stride. Howard, no longer a question mark from game to game because of his back, began to anchor the middle. After the All-Star break, the Lakers allowed 101.2 points per 100 possessions with him on the floor, which would have ranked eighth in the league according to NBA.com/Stats. Bryant enjoyed a bounce-back season at age 34, posting his highest true shooting percentage since 2007-08. Nash was dangerous as a spot-up threat when Bryant handled the basketball, and even Gasol found his place in the offense after returning from his injury refreshed and looking spry.
There was also some old-fashioned regression to the mean at play. Part of the Lakers' terrible start was due to their inability to win close games. Through Jan. 11, they had outscored their opponents by 37 points but stood six games below .500 because of a 5-17 record in games decided by 10 points or fewer. Predictably, that evened out the rest of the way -- and then some, as the Lakers went 22-8 the rest of the season in games decided by 10 points or fewer. By early March, the Lakers had crawled back above .500. Still, they went into the final night of the season needing to beat the Rockets to assure a playoff spot.
The Lakers completed their playoff comeback without Bryant, who was injured in the process. In part because the Lakers were thin at guard after Nash strained his hamstring, Bryant played at least 47 minutes throughout a four-game stretch. He completed it by playing the full 48 in the second game of a back-to-back at Portland, scoring 47 points. In the Lakers' following game, Bryant ruptured his left Achilles tendon in the fourth quarter, ending his season.
Nash returned for the Lakers' series against the Spurs, whom they beat without Bryant in the final weekend of the regular season. But he could manage just two ineffective games before heading back to the sideline. With Blake also injured, the Lakers started Darius Morris and Andrew Goudelock at guard in Games 3 and 4. Their season ended with back-to-back blowout losses to complete the San Antonio sweep.
Offseason Moves
The Lakers entered the summer with one task and one task only: re-sign Howard. They made the final pitch to the star free agent, hoping to persuade him to stay in Los Angeles and smooth over his troubled relationships with D'Antoni -- Howard later admitted he wanted the Lakers to hire Jackson -- and Bryant. Instead, Howard opted to join a Houston team on the rise.
Since the Rockets were able to sign Howard outright, there was no sign-and-trade as a consolation prize. The Lakers simply turned their focus to the summer of 2014, when virtually everyone on the roster will become a free agent. Only Nash is under contract for the 2014-15 season for more than the minimum salary, giving the Lakers the opportunity to clear as much as about $44 million under the projected $62.1 million salary cap used by ESPN's Larry ****. That figure could jump to nearly $50 million if the Lakers waive Nash using the stretch provision of the new collective bargaining agreement and slightly higher depending on where the draft pick falls and a handful of player options.
Of course, there are several catches before Lakers fans start envisioning LeBron James and Carmelo Anthony in purple and gold. Those figures don't include Bryant, who can sign for up to $33.6 million (105 percent of his 2013-14 salary) and told LakersNation.com over the summer "I'm going to try to get as much as I possibly can."
Without Bryant taking at least a slight pay cut, the Lakers can't afford to add a single max-level player, let alone two. James' maximum salary for 2014-15 will be $21.7 million (35 percent of the salary cap), while Anthony can make up to $23.5 million (105 percent of his 2013-14 salary).
Beyond that, Howard's departure suggests the Lakers may no longer have the same cachet with free agents. Howard and other max-level players have generally sought the best opportunity to win, and teaming with an aging Bryant doesn't qualify because the Lakers' cupboard is otherwise so bare. With top restricted free agents likely to sign extensions or have any contract offers matched, the Lakers are realistically looking at second-tier options like Rudy Gay or using their cap space in trades.
Even if the cap space doesn't yield a superstar, after Howard's departure, there was little alternative but to save it. The Lakers' real choice was whether to add veterans to try to compete for a playoff spot in 2013-14 or start a rebuilding process with an eye toward the loaded 2014 draft. They pursued a bit of a mixed strategy. Their taxpayer midlevel exception went to center Chris Kaman, who signed for one year and $3.2 million. Kaman will play alongside Gasol at times and handle center duties when he's off the floor, giving the team some legitimate size.
Having signed Kaman, the Lakers had nothing but the minimum to offer and a hole on the wing after using the amnesty provision to waive Metta World Peace, a move that saved them approximately $14 million. L.A. native Nick Young, who got a two-year deal with a 2014-15 player option, will compete with Meeks and former No. 4 overall pick Wesley Johnson to replace World Peace in the starting lineup. Another reclamation project, Xavier Henry, has made a strong bid for playing time during the preseason.
The Lakers also welcomed back Jordan Farmar, who spent last year playing in Turkey but bought his way out of his contract to return stateside. He spent the first four years of his career in L.A., winning a pair of championships, and offers a younger, more athletic alternative to Blake and Nash at point guard.
Besides Kaman, the Lakers added youth up front. Hill figures to step into a larger role next to Gasol, and the Lakers will fill out their rotation with the likes of Sacre (who signed a new two-year contract), second-round pick Ryan Kelly (a stretch 4 from Duke), former D'Antoni favorite Shawne Williams and undrafted rookie Elias Harris (who earned a guaranteed contract with his performance in the NBA Summer League).
2013-14 Outlook
When ESPN's Summer Forecast placed the Lakers 12th in the West, Bryant took notice. "12th I see ...," he tweeted. Alas, SCHOENE comes to the same conclusion, and it's difficult for outside observers to see the Lakers anywhere but between the pack of teams chasing the final handful of playoff spots in the conference and the young, rebuilding teams.
There is a scenario in which the Lakers could make the playoffs. If the stars all stay healthy, this group seems to fit together better without Howard. Gasol will spend more time at center, where he's historically been much more effective, and Hill can complement him with athleticism on defense.
With so many other teams in playoff contention, however, there's virtually no margin for error -- and a lot that can go wrong, starting with Bryant's recovery. The typical rehabilitation period for an Achilles rupture is about seven and a half months, which would have him back in early December.
Bryant is anything but typical, of course, and a return for opening night -- still a possibility -- would not be entirely unprecedented. Voshon Lenard, playing for the Denver Nuggets, ruptured his Achilles in the season opener and returned for the final two games of the season, five and a half months later. But playing is not the same as starring, and even if he were healthy, Bryant would be hard-pressed to maintain last season's level of play in his mid-30s.
Beyond their three stars, the Lakers aren't much deeper than last season, and small forward is a gaping hole. Putting a gunner (Young) next to Bryant makes little sense, and Johnson is a replacement-level talent. Going small with Meeks as the starter might be the Lakers' best option.
Most likely, this will be the worst Lakers team of the Bryant era, and they will make their first trip to the lottery since 2005. The Lakers could use the infusion of young talent as they look ahead to starting over next summer.
SCHOENE Projection: 35-47, 3rd in Pacific, 12th in Western Conference
