- Jan 25, 2014
- 1,787
- 1,747
i swear this thread gon give me hypertension
Let me just drop the facts right quick
Whips argument really has no basis for a multitude of reasons aside from being riddled with bias
1) His prediction of DLo failing to be a valuable player is already trash because his prediction does not include a time frame and any probability of a certain outcome (since any outcome is theoretically possible). A blanket statement, i.e. DLo will not be a star, completely reduces any reasonable ability to evaluate his prediction in the future since he avoided any specifics.
2) I dont even think Whip is asking the right question. Honestly, whether or not DLo is a star doesnt really get at the real issue. A better question may be, will DLo progress enough within the next 3 years to be an asset that contributes greatly to our teams success (5+ win player if you use VORP for example) . With this you can assign a probability that has a specific value and timeframe which you can judge accordingly.
3) Related to number 2. Whip clearly has NO idea about the worth of a draft pick. Ideally, yes, you would like a star with a pick in the top 3. However, thats not to say a first division player would be a failed pick. Take Kemba Walker for example. Or Kyle Lowry. Not really regarded as stars. But if you get that output especially on a rookie contract at any point in the draft, that is a major win and extremely valuable.
4) Whips failure to embrace statistics when forecasting DLos future. How are you going to use his alleged (lack of) effort/hustle/desire/want/whatever word you choose, basically something not quantifiable, as your main unit of analysis? I mean, unless you have some well built model to run statistical forecasts on that we dont know about you cant operationalize that question.
Essential simply is showing a comparison of players similar to DLo at the same stage of their careers (Y1/Y2 and/or
Let me just drop the facts right quick
Whips argument really has no basis for a multitude of reasons aside from being riddled with bias
1) His prediction of DLo failing to be a valuable player is already trash because his prediction does not include a time frame and any probability of a certain outcome (since any outcome is theoretically possible). A blanket statement, i.e. DLo will not be a star, completely reduces any reasonable ability to evaluate his prediction in the future since he avoided any specifics.
2) I dont even think Whip is asking the right question. Honestly, whether or not DLo is a star doesnt really get at the real issue. A better question may be, will DLo progress enough within the next 3 years to be an asset that contributes greatly to our teams success (5+ win player if you use VORP for example) . With this you can assign a probability that has a specific value and timeframe which you can judge accordingly.
3) Related to number 2. Whip clearly has NO idea about the worth of a draft pick. Ideally, yes, you would like a star with a pick in the top 3. However, thats not to say a first division player would be a failed pick. Take Kemba Walker for example. Or Kyle Lowry. Not really regarded as stars. But if you get that output especially on a rookie contract at any point in the draft, that is a major win and extremely valuable.
4) Whips failure to embrace statistics when forecasting DLos future. How are you going to use his alleged (lack of) effort/hustle/desire/want/whatever word you choose, basically something not quantifiable, as your main unit of analysis? I mean, unless you have some well built model to run statistical forecasts on that we dont know about you cant operationalize that question.
Essential simply is showing a comparison of players similar to DLo at the same stage of their careers (Y1/Y2 and/or
