Chad Ford's Final Big Board
With the 2014 NBA draft just a little more than 24 hours away, we give you our final Big Board.
Andrew Wiggins began the season as the No. 1 prospect on our Big Board and ends the season in the same place. Jabari Parker, Dante Exum, Joel Embiid, Marcus Smart, Aaron Gordon, Julius Randle and Dario Saric were all in the top 10 of Big Board 1.0 as well. They're still there too -- and so the complexion of the top of the board has remained pretty much the same all year long.
A few players, however, have seen their stock rise over the course of the season -- particularly Noah Vonleh, Nik Stauskas and Elfrid Payton.
A reminder: These rankings are not based on where a player will go in the draft. Rather, they are a composite ranking of who, in five years, will be the best NBA players, based on talking with NBA GMs and scouts and consulting various analytics models.
1. Andrew Wiggins
Wiggins has had an interesting career arc. He was overhyped in the beginning of the season, unfairly bashed during the season (it actually started in practices before the season) to the point he was almost underrated and has now climbed back into the mix for the No. 1 pick. Wiggins has participated in special workouts in Cleveland, Milwaukee and Philadelphia, reminding GMs why scouts fell in love with him in the first place. While Wiggins lacks the offensive polish, toughness and aggressiveness of Jabari Parker, his superior athletic skills, physical size for his position and ability to be a lockdown defender from day one will allow him to make an immediate impact. If he continues to polish his offensive game, Wiggins will be a superstar someday. He'll either go No. 1 to the Cavs or No. 2 to the Bucks.
2. Jabari Parker
Parker, ironically, has had a similar arc to Wiggins. As a junior in high school he was heralded as the best prospect since LeBron James. Then a foot injury slowed his progress and Wiggins passed him on most boards. A stellar freshman season at Duke reminded people just what a special player Parker is. He has a tremendous feel for the game, is an aggressive scorer and a leader on the court. His lack of elite athleticism and conditioning issues are the only things holding him back. He's considered the most sure thing in the draft, though he lacks the upside of Wiggins, Exum and Embiid. He'll either go No. 1 to the Cavs (that's where they're leaning right now) or No. 2 to the Bucks.
3. Dante Exum
Exum has held steady on the Big Board all year. He began the year at No. 3 and has never dropped below No. 4. The fact that he hasn't played in any real meaningful games all year probably has helped his cause in that regard. Still, now that teams like the Bucks, Sixers and Magic are getting close looks at him, the enthusiasm has definitely not waned. If anything, teams are more bullish on him than ever. Exum possesses elite size for his position, is an incredibly quick player and gets to the basket with ease. If he develops a jump shot and turns into a pure point guard, he has the chance to be as good as Wiggins, Parker or Embiid. He's got a small chance of going No. 2 to the Bucks, a strong chance of going No. 3 to the Sixers and it's highly unlikely he gets past the Magic at No. 4.
4. Joel Embiid
Embiid would have topped our final Big Board had he not broken his foot last week. However, a stress fracture alone shouldn't be enough to knock him down this far. But when you factor it in with a back stress fracture and several other medical issues that have yet to be publicly released (according to sources), there are just too many questions. Yes, based on pure talent, Embiid has the chance to be the best player in the draft. Those comparisons to Hakeem Olajuwon are spot on. But he's likely going to miss a year of basketball at a critical stage of his development. He'll spend the next year trying to shake off rust and make the huge leap from college to the NBA. It's going to be a while and the longer it takes, the more unlikely it is that he reaches his full potential. I wouldn't let him slide too far in the draft, but I think it would be hard to pass on Wiggins, Parker or Exum for him given the uncertainty. His range looks to be between Nos. 3 and 10 right now. The Sixers, Magic, Celtics and Kings are all doing their due diligence to assess Embiid's value and risks.
5. Noah Vonleh
Vonleh was not ranked in our top 30 at the start of the season. While he had lottery potential, most scouts expected that it would be at least two years before we saw it. A very solid freshman season moved him up the board dramatically. But it's been workouts and the combine that have given Vonleh his big push. He's got freakish physical characteristics -- incredibly long arms, huge hands, a thick core and the ability to run and move like a guard -- that are very, very tough to pass on. While he's one of the most raw prospects in our top 10, his improvement this season along with his high analytical scores and versatility (he can play down low or step out and shoot the 3) make him one of the highest upside picks in the draft. Vonleh's range appears to be between Nos. 3 and 6 with the Sixers, Magic, Jazz and Celtics all giving him serious consideration.
6. Marcus Smart
Smart is the first non-freshman on the board. He would've gone No. 2 in the draft last year and still makes a strong case as the top point guard prospect in the draft. Scouts picked him apart this season, but at the end of the day his size, toughness, defensive ability, basketball IQ and versatility make up for the lack of a jump shot and tendency to try to do too much. Smart is also consistently ranked as one of the top three or four players in the draft by every analytical model we consulted. He's also one of the two or three most NBA-ready players in the draft. Look for him to go as high as the Sixers at No. 3, the Magic at No. 4, the Celtics at No. 6, the Lakers at No, 7 or the Kings at No. 8.
7. Aaron Gordon
Gordon is one of the two or three best athletes in the draft, has the potential to be an elite defender and has the versatility to play multiple positions in the NBA. As I've previously said, he's the guy most likely to put up 12 points, 8 rebounds, 3 steals, 2 blocks and 4 assists on any given night. His lack of a jump shot and his unique personality have scared off some teams, but he offers tantalizing upside if he can ever learn to shoot. The Jazz at No. 5 are probably his ceiling. The Celtics are very intrigued at No. 6 and might be the best bet to draft him. I doubt he slides by the Sixers at No. 10.
8. Julius Randle
Randle was ranked No. 2 on our Big Board at the beginning of the season. Blessed with an NBA body and toughness, his willingness to bang in the paint and play his heart out are strong points. However, a shaky jumper, some problems playing against length and concerns that he might need foot surgery as a preventive measure this summer have lowered his stock a bit. I think his range starts at the Celtics at No. 6. The Lakers at No. 7 are a very strong possibility if they keep the pick. Randle had a strong workout in L.A. and afterward declined a second workout in Boston. I would be really surprised if he slid past the Sixers at No. 10.
9. Dario Saric
Saric's decision to stay in Turkey and play for Efes for a minimum of two years certainly will affect his draft stock. A team in the top 10 will be unlikely to take a flier on him knowing he won't be in the NBA for a couple of seasons. But based on talent, Saric is one of the top-10 prospects in this draft. He has one of the highest basketball IQs in the 2014 draft class, can pass the ball, scores in multiple ways, is a good rebounder and is a fierce competitor. If he continues to improve in Turkey, he'll be ready to make an instant impact in the NBA in a couple of seasons.
10. Gary Harris
Harris isn't the sexiest player in the draft. He's slightly undersized, is a good but not elite athlete, a good but not elite shooter and a good but not elite ball handler. However, he has very few weaknesses in his game, is one of the draft's only real two-way players and comes with high marks in intelligence, maturity and in various analytics reports. Because he lacks the appeal of other prospects, his draft projection is pretty wide right now. It starts with the Hornets at No. 9 and includes the Sixers (No. 10), Nuggets (No. 11), Wolves (No. 13), Suns (No. 14) and Bulls (No. 16). I don't think there's any way he slides past the Celtics at No. 17.
11. Nik Stauskas
Stauskas continues to carry the label as the best pure shooter in the draft. He's not only lethal with his feet set, but is a terrific shooter off the bounce. He's a very good ball handler for his size and can be explosive vertically. Laterally, he may struggle to guard 2s in the NBA and he needs to get stronger, but his cockiness on the court often helps mask his shortcomings. The Kings are looking at him as high as No. 8. Additionally, the Hornets at No. 9 are taking a long look, the Sixers at No. 10 are a very strong possibility and both the Nuggets at No. 11 and the Magic at No. 12 are good fits. It looks like his floor will be the Wolves at No. 13.
12. Elfrid Payton
Payton continues to be this year's high riser. In every pre-draft workout he's held his own against the other elite point guard prospects in the 2014 class. His length, quickness, ability to get to the rim, floor vision and defensive toughness are all well above the norm. His jump shot is his weakness right now and he needs to get stronger. Before the season began he looked like a sleeper to go in the late first or early second round. Now his range starts with the Lakers at No. 7. He's also in play with the Kings at No. 8, the Hornets at No. 9, the Magic at No. 12, the Hawks at No. 15 and the Bulls at No. 16. I doubt he slides past the Raptors at No. 20.
13. Doug McDermott
McDermott may be the best scorer in the draft behind Parker. Blessed with a deadly outside jumper and high basketball IQ, he proved at Creighton that he can get his points despite being double- and triple-teamed. Concerns about his ability to defend his position hold back his stock. But when he gets his feet set, he's money. His range starts with the Lakers at No. 7. The Kings at No. 8, Hornets at No. 9, Wolves at No. 13 and the Suns at No. 14 are all very interested as well. It's hard to see McDermott slipping past the Bulls at No. 16.
14. Zach LaVine
LaVine's upside is surpassed by only a handful of prospects in this draft. Blessed with elite size for his position, explosive leaping ability, quickness and deep range on his jumper, he's got tools that could make him a star. However, he's also one of the biggest projects in the draft. He needs to add strength, his shot selection can be poor and he needs to hone his point guard skills. Next to Embiid, he's the biggest high-risk, high-reward player in the draft. I think his range starts with the Sixers at No. 10. Teams drafting from Nos. 11 to 19 have all shown interest.
15. James Young
Young has great size for his position. His shooting stroke shows great potential and the fact he's one of three players left in our Top 100 who is still just 18 years old means that scouts have hope that he wasn't close to realizing his full potential at Kentucky. He's not an elite athlete and was one-dimensional in college, but overall he's a very promising young prospect. I think his range starts with the Sixers at No. 10. Teams drafting from Nos. 12 to 19 have all shown interest in Young.
16. Tyler Ennis
Ennis was one of the steadiest players in the country this season. He rarely makes mistakes and has a great feel for the game. And though he may lack the flash or upside of other point guards on the Big Board, but might be the most NBA-ready from day one. His draft stock has sunk a bit as he's struggled to differentiate himself in workouts. But he's not a workout type of player. It's in five-on-five play that Ennis shines. His range begins with the Magic at No. 12, with his floor being the Jazz at No. 23.
17. Jusuf Nurkic
Nurkic is all over draft boards. He's one of the few true big men in this draft, which really helps him. Some teams have him as the third best international prospect after Exum and Saric. Others have him as low as the sixth or seventh best international prospect. His size and soft touch are the things teams are interested in. But his lack of athleticism and rebounding issues keep him from being an elite prospect among some scouts. He could go as high as No. 11 to the Nuggets and his range probably ends at No. 21 to the Thunder.
18. P.J. Hairston
Hairston averaged 21.8 PPG, 45.3 percent from the field and 35.8 percent from 3 in the D-League. Hairston hasn't been great in workouts, but he has so much to offer that it might not matter. He's a terrific shooter, has a NBA body and has the mentality of a scorer. He can get lazy on defense and may spend too much time spotting up instead of attacking the rim, but he's one of the most NBA-ready prospects in the draft. Hairston's range starts at No. 13 to the Timberwolves and likely ends at No. 25 to the Rockets.
19. Kyle Anderson
Anderson is the most unique prospect in the draft who remains an acquired taste. He has incredible basketball IQ, is a good rebounder, a much improved shooter and has a ridiculous wingspan for a point guard. But he also is one of the two or three worst athletes in the draft, doesn't play a lick of defense and is only special when the ball is in his hands. In other words, he's got to be plugged into the right system. I think his draft range starts at No. 15 to the Hawks (who see him as a young Boris Diaw), with the Celtics at No. 17 and Thunder at No. 21 also showing strong interest. The Rockets at No. 25 are his floor.
20. T.J. Warren
Next to Parker and McDermott, Warren is the best scorer in the draft. He's not a great shooter or athlete, but he has a solid midrange game and is lethal at the rim. He's been putting for great workouts wherever he's gone and has dramatically improved his stock over the past month. The Suns at No. 14 or No. 18 are a real possibility. Additionally, the Hawks (No. 15), Bulls (No. 16 or No. 19), Celtics (No. 17) and Grizzlies (No. 22) are all in the mix.
21. Rodney Hood
Hood is another player who is a bit difficult to place. He has great size for his position, shoots it with range and has shown versatility. In terms of minuses, he's skinny, a little bit old for his class at 21 and doesn't have the upside of several other players in the draft at his position. But with that said, some teams like him better than Young or Hairston. Hood's range is between No. 13 to the Timberwolves and No. 25 to the Rockets.
22. Adriean Payne
Payne is another unique prospect because he's poised to help a team right now, but many scouts believe he still has upside because he's been late bloomer. He can play both the 4 and the 5, and he can shoot it and score down low. Plus, he's long and has athleticism. Why isn't he a top-10 pick? He's relatively old (23), and old is a bad thing when it comes to the draft. He's getting looks as high as the Wolves at No. 13. The Bulls at Nos. 16 and 19 and the Thunder at No. 21 also look like really good options.
23. Shabazz Napier
Napier wasn't in our top 30 at the start of the season. But a great NCAA tournament run where he led UConn to the title gave him loads of credibility. He has a lot of fans and lots of skeptics. The fans point to him being the most NBA-ready point guard in the draft, a fearless player who can both shoot and defend. The skeptics point to his lack of size and age (22), and question whether he has the physical attributes it takes to play in the NBA. His range starts at No. 12 to the Magic and likely ends at No. 25 to the Rockets.
24. K.J. McDaniels
McDaniels slowly climbed the board throughout the season after a terrific junior campaign at Clemson. His main calling card is as a great athlete, but teams want to see him shoot the ball better as well. He appears to start being in play with Chicago at No. 19. Other teams in the mix include the Thunder (No. 21), Jazz (No. 23), Rockets (No. 25), Heat (No. 26), Suns (No. 27) and Clippers (No. 2
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25. Mitch McGary
A back injury after a stellar run in the NCAA tournament killed McGary's quest to be a lottery pick. He plays with great energy, rebounds and can score around the basket. He's mysteriously worked out for only one team (the Bucks). Some in the league believe he has a first-round promise. Others believe his agent is strategically hoping he falls into the second round, where he can control the contract terms. With that said the Hornets at No. 24, the Heat at No. 26 and the Spurs at No. 30 will all give him a look. I doubt he slides past the Bucks at No. 31.
26. Jarnell Stokes
Stokes is one of the best rebounding big men in the country -- especially on the offensive glass. By virtually every metric he had a season almost identical to Julius Randle. He even has similar physical proportions. So why is Stokes at No. 25 and Randle at No. 8? Stokes is considered less athletic and more of a center than a power forward. However, all the analytics point to Stokes being one of the better values in the draft at this point. His range starts with the Thunder at No. 21.
27. Clint Capela
Capela has all of the raw tools to succeed in the NBA: size, length and athleticism. But he's very, very raw. His workouts have been disasters and teams have moved his status from project to ultra-project. But someone will select him in the 20s if for nothing else as a stash-and-draft prospect. So start him at the Raptors at No. 20 and expect him to be off the board by the time the Spurs draft at No. 30.
28. Jordan Adams
Adams might be the most unathletic 2 guard to ever to grace the first round. He's 6-foot-5 and he can barely dunk a basketball. But man can he score -- and he can do so from just about anywhere. Plus, the analytics absolute love him. He's getting looks as high as the Grizzlies at No. 22. He could slip out of the first round, but there seems to be a growing interest with teams in the first round, including the Heat at No. 26, Clippers at No. 28 and Thunder at No. 29.
29. Jordan Clarkson
Clarkson was impressive at both the Draft Combine and in recent workouts in New York. His length and athletic ability for his position weren't in doubt, but he's been shooting the ball much better while reminding scouts why they loved him early in the season. He's been slowly moving back up a number of draft boards, with his draft range starting at the Rockets at No. 25 and ending in the early second round.
30. Damien Inglis
Inglis sure looks the part. He has great size, length and athleticism for his position. And he's already blessed with a NBA body at age 19. But he's raw. He's still learning the game. There is tons of upside here, but whatever team drafts him is going to have to be patient. Inglis' range starts at No. 27 to the Suns and ends in the early second round.
Next five: Nikola Jokic, PF, Serbia; Cleanthony Early, F, Wichita State; Glenn Robinson III, F, Michigan; Jerami Grant, F, Syracuse; C.J. Wilcox, SG, Washington
