2014 NBA Draft Thread

Drones said:
Elfrid Payton...I really like this guy. He's like an athletic Rondo.
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Rondo ain't athletic? 
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And I can almost guarantee that Bennett will be a pretty good player in this league. The kids only 19-20 and can board, rebound, knock down mid range and treyball jumpers and once he gets his confidence/conditioning, you will see a whole new animal. Mark my words. Im rooting for the boy
 
MacNcheeese said:
And I can almost guarantee that Bennett will be a pretty good player in this league. The kids only 19-20 and can board, rebound, knock down mid range and treyball jumpers and once he gets his confidence/conditioning, you will see a whole new animal. Mark my words. Im rooting for the boy
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I hope you are right. Cleveland is getting so much hate, it would be awesome to see them turn things around.
 
mizzoe33 said:
I hope you are right. Cleveland is getting so much hate, it would be awesome to see them turn things around.
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As I mentioned, Im rooting for Bennett. He got sooooo much flack for a KID that was injured played on a team with a logjam at his position. I have a great feeling that he will do well!
 
MacNcheeese said:
And I can almost guarantee that Bennett will be a pretty good player in this league. The kids only 19-20 and can board, rebound, knock down mid range and treyball jumpers and once he gets his confidence/conditioning, you will see a whole new animal. Mark my words. Im rooting for the boy
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i don't think he can mentally comeback from all the hate the media and fans have given him and will continue to give him unless he comes out averaging 20 points and 10 boards a game. his jumper looked awful his rookie season, he had no confidence in it at all.
 
The Bucks need Parker.

I'm sure you guys are aware this team has been **** for 14 years. After 14 years the worst thing they can do is try their luck on an international teenager. Too many teams have gone down that road before including the bucks and have failed. More often than not they fail. I don't care what anyone's evaluation is on the guy. Too many times someone's evaluation on an international player failed. More often than not the evaluation fails. After 14 years you take the guy who has proven himself as NBA ready. Giannis will be an elite defender. Parker who is expected to be an elite scorer would compliment him perfectly.
 
BOStoIAH said:
Rondo ain't athletic? :lol:
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He is, but kind of in a different way. It's hard to explain, Elfrid seems like he has more breakaway speed and a quicker first step. I feel like he's more prone to just torching people off the bounce and throwing down on fools than Rondo is. Not to say that he can't.

It's a premature comparison tbh, he might be closer to Gary Payton than he is to Rajon.
 
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Jay02 said:
The Bucks need Parker.

I'm sure you guys are aware this team has been **** for 14 years. After 14 years the worst thing they can do is try their luck on an international teenager. Too many teams have gone down that road before including the bucks and have failed. More often than not they fail. I don't care what anyone's evaluation is on the guy. Too many times someone's evaluation on an international player failed. More often than not the evaluation fails. After 14 years you take the guy who has proven himself as NBA ready. Giannis will be an elite defender. Parker who is expected to be an elite scorer would compliment him perfectly.
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bucks already went after a bust that was from overseas, i'm sure they're better at it now. plus drafting exum will get everyone talking about them
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Jay02 said:
The Bucks need Parker.

I'm sure you guys are aware this team has been **** for 14 years. After 14 years the worst thing they can do is try their luck on an international teenager. Too many teams have gone down that road before including the bucks and have failed. More often than not they fail. I don't care what anyone's evaluation is on the guy. Too many times someone's evaluation on an international player failed. More often than not the evaluation fails. After 14 years you take the guy who has proven himself as NBA ready. Giannis will be an elite defender. Parker who is expected to be an elite scorer would compliment him perfectly.
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International players selected in the lottery have a lower bust rate than American players.
 
http://sportsnstats.com/nba-draft-euro-bust/
 [h2]THE NUMBERS[/h2]
To define “riskiness” I will refer to my work on the biggest NBA Draft busts. There I used the statistic called Win Shares  that attempts to quantify how much a player contributes to his team winning. I used data from NBA Drafts 1979-2009 in order to determine what a draft “bust” meant numerically. Having the data, I calculated each overall pick’s average Win Share production per 82 games (AKA per season). I then compared each individual player’s output to the average to see if that player was above or below average.

Please refer to the other post or the Win Shares link for a little bit more explanation. One main difference for this analysis, however, is that I used the top 60 draft picks in each draft rather than just top 30. The hope was that using 60 draft picks per year would increase the sample size and therefore increase the validity of the numbers.

Since I am comparing statistics to the pick average, there is potential for numbers to be skewed by a few outstanding picks at low numbers. Even though we have around 30 samples for each pick (older drafts only had 58 overall selections), there is still room for the numbers to be abnormally high or low due to certain players. Most notably, Michael Jordan has skewed the 3rd overall pick because of his record setting career. On the other end of the spectrum, Darko Milicic AKA “The Human Victory Cigar” has marred the #2 overall pick forever. To account for this, I calculated the “average” as a 5 pick weighted average.I set the “bust” barrier as a player having at least a Win Share per season 50% worse than the average. For example, in the 2006 NBA Draft, Shelden Williams was drafted 5th overall by the Atlanta Hawks. He currently sports a 1.71 win shares per season. To compare, the average win shares per season for all number 5 picks from 1979-2009 was 4.5 win shares per season. Therefore Shelden Williams is considered a bust because his win shares number is 61.9% less than average.

For example, when calculating the #8 overall pick, I gave the #8 pick a weight of 0.4, then weighted the #7 and #9 picks 0.2 each, and then weighted the #6 and #10 picks 0.1 each.

After reviewing the sample sizes, I decided to throw out high school NBA players because there have only been 37 high schoolers to jump to the NBA from 1979-2009. College and international players have sample sizes of 1,576, and 168, respectively. Therefore I decided to compare these two groups as they have the samples big enough to make a real conclusion.

First, let’s take a look at the numbers:

[table][tr][th=""]TYPE[/th][th=""]# OF BUSTS[/th][th=""]# OF PLAYERS[/th][th=""]BUST %[/th][/tr][tr][td]International[/td][td]99[/td][td]168[/td][td]58.93%[/td][/tr][tr][td]College[/td][td]780[/td][td]1576[/td][td]49.49%[/td][/tr][tr][td]High School[/td][td]12[/td][td]37[/td][td]32.43%[/td][/tr][/table]

As you can see, it appears that international players flop more often than college players. But is this difference significant?
[h2]VERIFYING THE NUMBERS[/h2]
I performed a difference between two population proportions hypothesis test for you stats nerds out there to verify that this difference is significant. After running the test, we can conclude that, on average, international players “bust” at a higher proportion than college players do.

If you want more of the numbers that went into the calculations, just ask and I can edit the post to include more.
[h2]CONCLUSION[/h2]
So there you have it. Proof that, on average, international players have a tough time living up to their draft position expectations.

Combining the analysis with the numerical proof, there is sound reasoning that college players are the safest picks in the draft. I guess fans do have a reason to boo emphatically at the draft when their team drafts a Kostas Papanikolaou.
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Has anybody seen this DanteExum play?
I never heard of him until the Draft got here so I can't speculate on him vs any other PG,
But @ 6'6 PG though I'm liking him a lot
 
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