2014 NBA Draft Thread

Rondo, Bradley, Green & Love is a top 4 team in the east easily. Add a few more shooters through FA and that team could be a serious threat.
 
Dante Exum is an X factor from Australia

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Dante Exum has been dubbed this year’s international man of mystery, an Australian guard who is known to many by his online highlights and little else.

Yet NBA fans will know his name soon enough; Exum is expected by some to be a top-five pick in the June 26 draft.

The son of Cecil Exum, a reserve guard at North Carolina in the 1980s, Dante Exum grew up in Australia after his father moved there to play professionally.

Exum attended the highly regarded Australian Institute of Sport and then started traveling to compete in international tournaments, where word soon spread about his talents. But instead of opting for college, the 6-foot-6-inch Exum set his sights on the NBA.

When he attended the Chicago combine in May, the 18-year-old Exum elected only to speak to reporters, avoiding the on-court drills, which only deepened the mystery surrounding his game.

“He’s a little bit of a wild card,” said a Western Conference executive. “He definitely looked great last year at the Hoops Summit and he’s played well in international events. He’s going to be a really good player, but I don’t have the familiarity with him as a comfort level of what he can become as compared to some of the other guys.”

The biggest question about Exum is what position he’ll play in the NBA.

“He’s intriguing in that he’s kind of like the new-wave point guard, a guy that can play both guard positions,” said one Eastern Conference executive. “He’s got great size — enough to play both guard positions — speed and athleticism and ballhandling to play the point and then shooting, size, and strength to play the [shooting] guard position.

“He’s kind of the optimal point guard guy. I think that’s what’s intriguing about him.

“You’re talking about the kid who, [at] the under-19 World Championships, was the best kid in the tournament, hands down. It’s just a matter of how many people saw him there and how many people are comfortable with that to make a decision on him.

“At the Hoops Summit, he was good, but he wasn’t stellar. He was the youngest guy in the game. He’s another kid that was a year younger than everyone else. He’s a talent. I think teams might be sleeping on him as far as what he potentially could be.”

But one Eastern Conference scout said the issue of what position Exum plays is the “million-dollar question.”

“What is he going to be?” asked the scout. “Are you going to turn him into Russell Westbrook? Or is he going to be Thabo Sefolosha?”

Another Eastern Conference scout said Exum might have to play point guard even if it’s not the best position for him.

“As a point guard, I like him, but I don’t know if he’s a natural point guard,” the scout said. “I think that you kind of have to play him there — this is only based off me seeing him at Nike Hoops Summit last year — but the thing about him when he wasn’t playing point, because he was paired up with Dennis Schroder, was Exum had no clue how to cut or move without the ball. He just literally stood in the corner.

“I think he always has to have the ball in his hands to be effective.”

A Western Conference scout recalled watching Exum face Schroder, a German point guard who was drafted by the Atlanta Hawks last year.

“Let me tell you, Dennis Schroder kicked the [expletive] out of him in every one-on-one drill,” the scout said. “It was sad, because here was this young, gangly kid, and Schroder was tying him into knots.”

The Western Conference scout called Exum a “very good prospect” but stopped short of saying he was anything more.

“Again, is he not a tremendous prospect? I’m not going to say that,” the scout said. “Is he a potential All-Star? I don’t know. Is he someone who if I was drafting, and I haven’t seen him play other than a one-on-zero workout, would I consider drafting him top five? No [expletive] way.

“I saw him play every conceivable level of basketball. He’s not a point guard. Just because you can dribble in a straight line and dunk doesn’t make you a point guard.”

Exum hasn’t been playing on a competitive team since leading Lake Ginninderra Secondary College to the Australian National High School Basketball Championships title in January.

Before that, he competed in the FIBA Under-19 World Championships, where he averaged 18.2 points, 3.6 rebounds, and 3.8 assists.

“The thing that brings me a little bit of concern is the level of competition that he’s played against,” said one Eastern Conference executive. “He played against our young guys, USA guys last year, and he looked good. But playing in Australia . . . I just mean, the everyday competition against guys that are as quick, as fast, as good? He hasn’t done that.”

An Eastern Conference scout said that Exum comes from the “same cloth as all the Australian players that have played in the NBA — he has a grit, toughness, nasty. Has a ton of pride. Wears the Australian flag strong.”

But another Eastern Conference executive who watched Exum compete overseas said Exum reminded him of an Argentine player, San Antonio Spurs guard Manu Ginobili.

“Just like Manu is extremely left-hand dominant, Dante is extremely right-hand dominant,” the executive said. “He really has no left hand right now. That will have to come as he gets older and stronger and just better as a player. That was kind of a name that came to mind.

“I think it’s kind of an interesting type of player. I don’t think Manu gets enough credit for as good of a 2-guard as he actually is. If you can find another one of him, I think that’s a pretty good get.

“I think Exum has that ability to where he could be a slasher but a good enough shooter to draw defenses out and then have the ability to drive and create out of that, because like Manu, he’s an incredible passer for being a big player.”

More than with any other lottery-caliber players, there are questions about Exum’s game, if only because of where he’s from.

“He’s long, athletic, he knows how to play,” an Eastern Conference scout said. “I think his biggest thing will be getting stronger and shooting. I think he’s athletic, but it’s interesting, because he covered [Andrew] Wiggins a couple times at that [Hoops Summit] event, and he did OK.

“And it’s like, ‘OK, this guy can cover Wiggins.’ But then there are plays, and it’s like, as athletic as Exum is, he’s not an elite athlete. Wiggins can do this to a lot of people, but there was a very large difference between the two when it came to the level of athleticism.

“I think he’s probably more athletic than [Michael] Carter-Williams, but I don’t know if he has Carter-Williams’s feel as a point guard. But he’s definitely a player. He’s one of those guys — just draft his talent and let the coach figure it out.”
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http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/2...m-australia/SDbZWLe7UNggTNCfzGS2iK/story.html
 
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Ford:
Top 25 draft prospects since 2000

I've spent the past year ranking the top prospects in the 2014 NBA draft. The anticipation and hype around this class is truly remarkable. Joel Embiid, Andrew Wiggins and Jabari Parker have become household names. The expectations surrounding their future NBA careers are off the charts.

That got us thinking about other drafts. I've been covering the NBA draft for more than 15 years, and some players came in with even higher expectations than Wiggins, Parker and Embiid. Of all the prospects to enter the draft from 2000 to 2014, how did they rank coming into the draft?

Note that this ranking has nothing to do with how a player has -- or has not -- performed in the NBA. Rather, it's solely based on each prospect's perceived potential coming into the draft.

Here are the top 25 prospects from the past 15 years to enter the NBA draft.

1. LeBron James, SF, St. Vincent-St. Mary HS (Akron, Ohio)
Drafted: No. 1 in 2003 by the Cleveland Cavaliers

Has there ever been a player, in any professional sport, who came into a professional league with more expectations and fanfare? LeBron was anointed a superstar while still in high school. At 18, he was a supreme athlete, played like a point guard with the body of a power forward and could do just about everything. "If God were to design a perfect basketball player," I wrote in 2003, "it would look exactly like LeBron James."

Impossibly, James has lived up to the hype. He's a two-time NBA champion and Finals MVP. He has won Most Valuable Player four times. Has played in 10 All-Star Games. In his 11-year career he has been to the NBA Finals five times. While he might never live up to the legacy of Michael Jordan, he recently has been dubbed by many as the best small forward to ever play the game.

2. Greg Oden, C, Ohio State
Drafted: No. 1 in 2007 by the Portland Trail Blazers

Oden was supposed to rekindle the legacy of a bygone NBA era when giants ruled the paint. He was an old-school, freakishly big, freakishly athletic back-to-the-basket center who drew comparisons to Tim Duncan, Patrick Ewing and David Robinson. He was supposed to win multiple Defensive Player of the Year awards. He was a lock to average 25 points, 12 rebounds and 4 blocks per game.

Then Oden fell apart. He had microfracture surgery on his right knee before his rookie season. Then, at the start of the 2009 season, he fractured his left patella. Before he ever stepped back on the court, he had another microfracture surgery, this time on his left knee. In 2012 he went through a third microfracture surgery. The Blazers waived him in March 2012. He played a total of 82 games for them. While he showed enormous potential when he played, his career was a disaster by virtually every standard. Oden was signed by the Heat this season and played sparingly, averaging 9.2 MPG in 2013-14.


3. Yao Ming, C, Shanghai Sharks (China)
Drafted: No. 1 in 2002 by the Houston Rockets

Before there was Oden, there was Yao -- the first international player to be drafted No. 1. Yao was a freak of nature. At 7-foot-6, he was the tallest active player in the NBA. While there had been one other player from China before him to play in the NBA (Wang Zhi-Zhi), Yao was the first potential superstar to come out of Asia. When he showed up for a workout before the NBA draft, it was aired on live television -- another first. No one knew exactly what Yao's career would be like. He averaged 39 points and 20 rebounds for the Sharks, but the NBA was a whole different matter. He had many skeptics (myself included), but the Rockets weren't one of them. They went as far as to change their logos and uniform to appear more like the brushstroke of Chinese characters.

Yao's career, though cut short due to foot and ankle injuries, was a success. He made the All-Star team eight times; was an All-NBA second-teamer twice and an All-NBA third-teamer three times. While he wasn't as dominant as his size and hype portended, Yao ended up being worth all of the fuss.

4. Kevin Durant, F, Texas
Drafted: No. 2 in 2007 by the Seattle Supersonics

In virtually any normal year, Kevin Durant would've been a unanimous choice for the No. 1 pick. He absolutely torched college teams as a freshman, averaging 25.8 points per game while shooting more than 40 percent from 3-point range. It's very rare to find such an elite scorer at his size. His highlight reel at Texas screamed "NBA Superstar." There wasn't anywhere on the floor from which Durant couldn't score. Unfortunately for Durant, another freshman, Oden, had also declared for the draft. GMs, NBA scouts, draft experts and fans all debated loudly who should go No. 1, which was a remarkable thing considering the hype surrounding Oden.

The Blazers took Oden No. 1 and the Sonics took Durant No. 2 in a decision that forever changed the trajectory of both franchises. While Oden has played just 105 NBA games, Durant is widely regarded as the second-best player in the NBA behind James. He's coming off his first MVP award this season. He's a five-time NBA All-Star, five-time All-NBA first team selection and four-time NBA scoring champ. Of the players drafted in the last 15 years, only James has had a better career.

5. Anthony Davis, PF, Kentucky
Drafted: No. 1 in 2012 by the New Orleans Hornets

Davis never received the hype publicly, but virtually every GM in the NBA was drooling over Davis when he entered the league in 2012. Coming off an NCAA title run as a freshman at Kentucky, Davis' upside seemed limitless. He was long, athletic, ran the floor like a guard and while he didn't always show it at Kentucky, he was a versatile offensive player as well. To top it off, Davis had (and still has) a terrific reputation in the locker room and off the court. He was a hard worker, a leader and humble (thanks in part to a late growth spurt in high school that helped him escape much of the enabling culture of AAU).

All 30 teams would've drafted Davis No. 1 in 2012. In fact, I polled a number of GMs that year who said they thought he was the best prospect to enter the draft since Oden in 2007 and LeBron in 2003. So far, so good. He made the All-Star team in his second year in the league, averaging 20.8 ppg, 10 rpg and 2.8 bpg as a 20-year-old. If he can stay healthy, he has a chance to win an NBA MVP award.

6. Darko Milicic, C, Hemofarm (Serbia)
Drafted: No. 2 in 2003 by the Detroit Pistons

With a number of international players like Dirk Nowitzki, Pau Gasol and Yao Ming taking the NBA by storm, scouts began looking for the next great big man and thought they had found him in the 17-year-old Milicic. Just about every scout who made the trip to Serbia came back raving about the 7-1 big man who was quick, explosive and could score from everywhere on the floor. On top of it, he had an attitude, an edge/toughness that scouts loved. Compared to everyone from Kevin Garnett to Wilt Chamberlain, Darko was supposed to be a dominant NBA force. Longtime Pistons scout Will Robinson said the following before the 2003 draft. "He's going to own the game. Own the game. We're going to have to build a new arena."

As it turns out, two years of getting clean-up minutes at the end of the game, injuries, a rough transition from Serbia to America, too much too fast, led to Darko's demise. While he showed promise in Orlando after getting traded there midway through his third season and again once after he landed in Minnesota, Darko, for the most part, was a punch line. With Dwyane Wade, Carmelo Anthony and Chris Bosh all going after Darko in the 2003 draft, the decision to draft him haunts the Pistons to this day.

7. Carmelo Anthony, F, Syracuse
Drafted: No. 3 in 2003 by the Denver Nuggets

How great was the 2003 NBA draft? There was the most-hyped high school phenom ever, the most hyped international youngster ever and then there was Melo. Of the three, Melo was the most proven. Ranked as the top high school player in the class of 2002, Melo dominated as a freshman at Syracuse, leading the Orange to an NCAA title. His infectious smile and ability to score from anywhere earned him legions of fans. While LeBron was the unanimous choice of NBA GMs and scouts -- and Darko was second on almost every board -- fans of the game wanted to know, sometimes in obscenity-filled rants, why the Cavs and Pistons were gambling on unknowns when Melo was a proven commodity. Many predicted Melo would be the Rookie of the Year and ultimately become the best player in the class.

While the fans' predictions turned out not to be true -- LeBron, from day one, was clearly the best player in the draft -- they weren't far off. Wade ended up being the second-best player in the class followed by either Melo or Bosh. Melo has been a seven-time All-Star, made an All-NBA second or third team six times and was the NBA scoring champ in 2013. The fact that he's never won an NBA title and is sometimes pegged as more of a gunner than a winner affects his legacy somewhat, but he has lived up to his talent, if not the hype.

8. Jay Williams, PG, Duke
Drafted: No. 2 in 2002 by the Chicago Bulls

Williams was a two-time NABC Player of the Year at Duke. He won a National Championship in 2001 and won virtually every single college basketball award there was in 2002. He was a heady, athletic point guard who could shoot and see the floor. The only real question for him centered on his lack of size. Had someone of the stature of Yao not been in the draft, he would have been the consensus No. 1 pick.

Unfortunately for Williams, a motorcycle accident after his rookie year severed a nerve in his leg, fractured his pelvis and tore ligaments in his knee. The Bulls eventually waived him and, despite a number of rehab attempts, he could never return to form.

9. Joel Embiid, C, Kansas
Drafted: TBD in 2014

Whenever you get compared to a young Hakeem Olajuwon, people pay attention. A little over a year ago, Embiid was a largely obscure prospect that ranked No. 50 in ESPN's Top 100 high school rankings. But dominant performances in practice at the Nike Hoop Summit got scouts excited. And after a slow start to his college career, by mid-season he established himself as the most exciting true center to come along since Oden.

Embiid moved to No. 1 on our Big Board in mid-February before a stress fracture in his back forced him to miss the last month of the season. But with eight weeks of rest, Embiid looks healthy again. And after wowing scouts at a May workout in Santa Monica, Calif., he impressed the Cavs in a private workout in Cleveland prompting several sources -- connected to both the Cavs and to his camp -- to claim that he's the heavy favorite to go No. 1 on draft night.

10. Andrew Wiggins, G/F, Kansas
Drafted: TBD in 2014

If Wiggins had left for the NBA straight after high school, he would've been four or five spots higher on this list. Blessed with elite athletic ability and size for his position, he came out of high school ranked as one of the best prospects ever. The less informed started calling him the next LeBron James or Kobe Bryant. While his comp was really closer to a Tracy McGrady or a Paul George, the hype surrounding Wiggins was enormous.

His performance at Kansas dinged his reputation. While he was dominant at times (especially toward the end of the season), too often he looked passive and didn't display the killer instinct that NBA teams covet in a prospect. Regardless, many scouts believe he is an elite prospect who could be a transcendent player once he refines his offensive game.

11. Derrick Rose, PG, Memphis
Drafted: No. 1 in 2008 by the Chicago Bulls

Rose was an elite player coming out of high school, but a slow start at Memphis created some doubt about how he'd translate to the NBA. His elite athletic abilities were apparent, but questions about his position (was he really a point guard?) and his jump shot (he struggled from beyond the arc) swirled around him until he put Memphis on his back and led them to the National Championship game. When the hometown Bulls got the No. 1 pick, the illusion of a consensus No. 1 emerged.

Rose became the first guard to go No. 1 since Allen Iverson in 1996. Obviously Rose proved worthy of the pick based on pure talent. He was the youngest player to win the NBA's MVP award (he was 22 at the time) and was a three-time All-Star before a series of knee injuries (an ACL tear in his left knee and a torn meniscus in his right knee) scuttled the last two years of his career.

12. Jabari Parker, F, Duke
Drafted: TBD in 2014

If Jabari had been able to declare for the draft after his junior season of high school, he might have been No. 2 or 3 on this list after LeBron and Oden. Parker's mug graced the cover of Sports Illustrated with the caption "The best high school basketball player since LeBron James is Jabari Parker." A foot fracture his senior year slowed down his progress and by the end of that year, Wiggins had passed him on most NBA boards.

However, a very strong freshman campaign started to win back scouts and now he's in the mix for the No. 1 pick. While Parker lacks the upside of most of the players on this list, he's one of the most fundamentally sound freshmen we've seen. He knows how to play and if he can get in great shape and find a position to guard, he could end up with one of the best careers of anyone on this list.

13. Blake Griffin, PF, Oklahoma
Drafted: No. 1 in 2009 by the Los Angeles Clippers

Griffin was ranked by ESPN as the 18th best player in his high school class, but by the end of his sophomore year in college was the consensus No. 1 pick in the draft. Blessed with incredible, explosive dunking ability and an NBA body, Griffin was a human highlight reel.

While scouts worried about a lack of perimeter skills and Griffin suffered a stress fracture that forced him to miss his rookie season, he's gone on to have a terrific career with the Clippers. He's a four-time All-Star and has been named to the All-NBA second team three times. He's really polished his offensive game.

14. Ricky Rubio, PG, FC Barcelona (Spain)
Drafted: No. 5 in 2009 by the Minnesota Timberwolves

While a number of international big men had caught the eye of NBA scouts leading up to 2009, Rubio was the first international guard to really generate buzz as a potential No. 1 pick in the draft. He turned pro at 14, was playing in the Olympics with and against NBA players at 17 and was drawing comparisons to a young Pete Maravich. Concerns about a buyout with his Spanish club and Rubio's inability to shoot caused his draft stock to slide a bit on draft night, but many in the league expected him to be a superstar once he got here. While Rubio has proved to be a wizard with the ball, his shaky jumper has held him back from superstar status.

15. Chris Paul, PG, Wake Forest
Drafted: No. 4 in 2005 by the New Orleans Hornets

How Paul fell to fourth in the 2005 NBA draft is still a mystery we are all trying to figure out. He was widely regarded as the best point guard prospect to enter the league since Jason Kidd. The Bucks had the first pick and wanted to go big, taking Andrew Bogut. The Hawks desperately needed a point guard, but decided to gamble on the upside of Marvin Williams at No. 2. The Jazz traded up to No. 3 and shocked everyone by taking Deron Williams ahead of Paul. But both before and after the draft, the refrain was the same: Paul will be the best player and point guard in the 2005 NBA draft. As it rurns out, he might end up being the best point guard of all-time if he can just get a few rings on those fingers.

16. John Wall, PG, Kentucky
Drafted: No. 1 in 2010 by the Washington Wizards

Wall was ranked as the No. 1 prospect coming out of high school and held onto that position throughout his freshman season at Kentucky. Blessed with blazing end-to-end speed, he was easily one of the fastest, most athletic point guard prospects of the last decade. Questions about Wall's floor vision and jump shot coming out of college keep him a bit lower on this list. Injuries held him back a little early in his career, but he really came on in his fourth year, averaging career high in points, assists and 3-point percentage while making his first appearance in an All-Star game.

17. Michael Beasley, F, Kansas State
Drafted: No. 2 in 2008 by the Miami Heat

Before Rose made a push in March and Rose's hometown Bulls secured the No. 1 pick, many regarded Beasley as the best prospect in the draft after a dominant freshman season at Kansas State where he averaged 26.2 PPG and 12.4 RPG. Beasley also was considered an elite prospect in high school, and had the ability to play both inside and outside. Concerns about Beasley's off-court issues and potential "tweener" status arose before the draft, and both ended up being well-founded as he went into rehab after his rookie year, struggled to replicate his dominant college season and has bounced around between the Heat, Wolves, Suns and then back to the Heat.

18. Dwight Howard, C, Southwest Atlanta Christian Academy (Atlanta)
Drafted: No. 1 in 2004 by the Orlando Magic

Howard might have turned into the NBA's version of Superman in his career, but it didn't start that way. In what was considered a weak 2004 NBA draft, he battled veteran UConn big man Emeka Okafor for the No. 1 pick. He didn't have the body he has now and, with almost no offensive skills (I watched him workout once where he was shooting jump shots and missed almost all of them), there were legitimate questions about whether Howard was worthy of the No. 1 pick. But with that said, everyone saw his raw abilities and knew that if he bulked up, he'd be tough to stop. No one was screaming superstar with Howard in 2004 but it didn't take long after to change their tune.

19. O.J. Mayo, SG, USC
Drafted: No. 3 in 2008 by the Minnesota Timberwolves (traded to Memphis on draft night)

Before Parker was the best high school player since LeBron, Mayo was that guy. Hailed as the next LeBron while he was in (gulp) eighth grade by Sports Illustrated, the hype around him never quite matched up to the player he was. He was good as a freshman at USC (he averaged 20.7 PPG and shot 41 percent from 3), but by the time the season was over, scouts had downgraded his status from potential NBA superstar to potential NBA starter. The fact that he was taken ahead of both Russell Westbrook and Kevin Love explains just how much hype still clung to him. Mayo's career has been largely disappointing. He averaged 18.5 PPG as a rookie but his numbers have significantly declined since then.

20. Marvin Williams, SF, North Carolina
Drafted: No. 2 in 2005 by the Atlanta Hawks

Williams was an elite prospect in high school, but found himself as the sixth man on North Carolina as a freshman. However, a couple of breakout games during the NCAA tournament convinced everyone (including me) that he was going to be a star someday, as someone who could thrive at both the 3 and the 4. Williams never lived up to hype and has been a marginal starter for his career, averaging 10.8 PPG and 5.1 RPG in nine years.

21. Adam Morrison, SF, Gonzaga
Drafted: No. 3 in 2006 by the Charlotte Bobcats

Morrison was an exciting, mustached scoring machine who averaged 28.1 PPG during his junior season. The inevitable Larry Bird comparisons and a "draft the 'stache" campaign by fans raised his profile to the point that he moved from the mid-first-round material up to the No. 3 pick in the draft. Unfortunately for Morrison, injuries, a shaky 3-point shot and diabetes destroyed his career. He averaged just 7.5 PPG in three NBA seasons.

22. Nikoloz Tskitishvili, SF, Benetton (Italy)
Drafted: No. 5 in 2002 by the Denver Nuggets

The fall after Hawks rookie Pau Gasol won Rookie of the Year, NBA scouts descended upon Europe in force looking for the next great thing. They found Tskitishvili, shooting jump shots in an empty gym in Treviso, Italy, where an exiled Mike D'Antoni convinced his friends in the NBA to come up and work out "Skita." Forgetting that D'Antoni was barely playing him, scouts were mesmerized with Skita's ability to shoot, handle the ball and move in workouts. Nuggets GM Kiki Vandeweghe drafted Skita without ever seeing him play in person. His greatest accomplishment was winning a Summer League MVP award. He averaged just 2.9 PPG for his career and couldn't even end up sticking in Europe. His last three seasons were played in Iran, Lebanon and United Arab Emirates.

23. Kwame Brown, F/C, Glynn Academy HS (Georgia)
Drafted: No. 1 in 2001 by the Washington Wizards

Brown might have single-handedly destroyed the dreams of hundreds of kids who wanted to make the jump from high school to the NBA. After several years of struggling in the NBA, the league moved to ban high school players from the NBA draft. Brown was one of four high school seniors taken in the top six picks in 2001. He reportedly outplayed Tyson Chandler in a one-on-one game in front of Michael Jordan to claim the No. 1 pick in 2001. No one really knew how much Kwame's game would translate to the NBA. The size and athleticism were there, but he had small hands, lacked skills and the Wizards did a horrible job acclimating him to the NBA. Brown, who was a journeyman in the NBA, averaged just 6.6 PPG and 5.5 RPG in 13 seasons.

24. Shaun Livingston, PG, Peoria HS (Illinois)
Drafted: No. 4 in 2004 by the Los Angeles Clippers

Livingston, at 6-7, stoked the NBA's love affair with tall point guards. He had an incredible handle for a player his size and saw the floor as well as any top point guard to come out in a while. He was rail thin and couldn't shoot, but every time he stepped on the floor special things happened. A horrific knee injury in 2007 that tore his ACL, PCL and sprained his MCL derailed his career for a time. He came back the past few years as a valuable role player, playing especially well this season for the Nets, but Livingston's promise was never fully realized.

25. Emeka Okafor, F/C, Connecticut
Drafted: No. 2 in 2004 by the Charlotte Bobcats

Okafor didn't have a lot of sizzle, but he was seriously in the mix to be the No. 1 pick in 2004 ahead of Dwight Howard. Concerns about Okafor's back and age ultimately led to Howard getting the nod, but at the time many thought Okafor was a sure thing in the NBA. He averaged 12.3 PPG, 9.9 RPG and 1.7 BPG in nine NBA seasons.
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I think the top three since 2000 is LeBron, Oden and Yao in that order. After that is probably a toss up of guys like Darko, Durant, Davis, etc.
 
“I think he’s probably more athletic than [Michael] Carter-Williams, but I don’t know if he has Carter-Williams’s feel as a point guard. But he’s definitely a player. He’s one of those guys — just draft his talent and let the coach figure it out.”
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Just not enough info out there on Exum, though. Scouts are throwing **** up against the wall too it seems. 
 
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Can someone find out which NBA analyst said that Exum reminds him of Michael Jordan? I think it was Jonathan Givony
 
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No Love trade will be made if he doesn't agree to extend with the team that trades for him.

Kings are the only team that doesn't care about that.
 
Love not signing an extension, there is no financial incentive to. If anything, he'll pull a Chris Paul; pass on the opt out and play for two years with whatever team trades for him.
 
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Projecting top 30 NBA prospects

When it comes to the 2014 NBA draft, the numbers tell a clear story: Don't believe the hype. For all the excitement this year's crop of freshmen has generated, none of them rate as well in my projections as last year's top prospect, former Kentucky center Nerlens Noel.

To project how college and international players will perform in the NBA, I start by translating their performance in 14 core statistics along the lines of 2-point percentage and rebound percentage to their NBA equivalents. Then I factor in past seasons, which, given how success for college prospects has carried over in the past, are weighted more heavily than the most recent one. Finally, I regress the stats toward the average for rookies at the same position, thereby generating a complete projected stat line for each player's rookie year.

For a long-term outlook, I project the wins above replacement player (WARP) the player will average over their first five seasons in the NBA, adjusted so that immediate contributions are weighted more heavily than those of future seasons. I come to this figure by combining the player's projected rookie win percentage (the per-minute version of WARP, akin to PER) with his age (as of the end of the NCAA season). Naturally, the younger the player, the more opportunity for improvement down the road. During their first NBA seasons, younger players display more development than their older counterparts, making age a crucial part of any prospect analysis.

This year, the top prospect overall in my rankings isn't any of the guys you've heard about atop Big Boards. Rather, it's a sophomore: Oklahoma State guard Marcus Smart.

Now, let's get to Chad Ford's top 30 prospects, ranked by their WARP projections, followed by a ranking of the top 10 second-round steals and full list of the top 100 prospects ranked by projected WARP.

1. Marcus Smart, PG, Oklahoma State Cowboys
Win%: .512 | Age: 20.1 | WARP projection: 3.6

Several factors propelled Smart to the top of the WARP projections. He's young for a sophomore, just 10 days older than Joel Embiid. Smart's projected steal rate is tops for any projected first-round pick, which is important because steal rate has been a strong indicator of NBA success. He's also an excellent rebounder and has been surprisingly good playing against star point guards. Players similar to Smart tend to perform better in the NBA as the professional floor typically is more open, allowing them to create off the dribble.

2. Clint Capela, PF, Switzerland
Win%: .497 | Age: 19.9 | WARP projection: 3.4

As I noted in last week's analysis of the top international prospects in the draft, Capela performed well both in the French Pro A league and in his team's brief stint in the EuroCup against more challenging competition. He's an excellent shot-blocker for a power forward, and is arguably the best finisher in this year's draft, as reflected by his projected 54.4 percent 2-point accuracy.


3. Jusuf Nurkic, C, Bosnia
Win%: .490 | Age: 19.7 | WARP projection: 3.3

Nurkic is more of a gamble than Capela because he struggled against tougher EuroCup competition. But he dominated in the Adriatic League, rating as the best player in the league on a per-minute basis (ahead of Adriatic MVP Dario Saric). Nurkic projects as an elite offensive center, and if he can defend at all, he's got All-Star potential.

4. Dante Exum, PG, Australia
Win%: .468 | Age: 18.8 | WARP projection: 3.3

Exum is the most difficult elite prospect in this year's draft to evaluate statistically. His profile is based on nine games in the FIBA U-19 World Championship last summer, using other competitors who played in the NCAA (including Smart and Tyler Ennis) as the basis for the comparison. As a result, his projection is less reliable than anyone else in the draft. That gives him some bust potential, but also suggests there's a chance he might be the best talent available.


5. Jordan Adams, SG, UCLA Bruins
Win%: .480 | Age: 19.8 | WARP projection: 3.0

The clearest example of the disconnect between scouting and performance analysis in this year's draft, Adams is considered a late first-round pick (he's 29th in Ford's top 100) but rates as an elite talent statistically. A high steal rate works in Adams' favor, as does his efficiency as a scorer. He's the only player in the draft who doesn't rank in the bottom 25 percent at his position in any skill statistic in my database.


6. Joel Embiid, C, Kansas Jayhawks
Win%: .480 | Age: 20.1 | WARP projection: 2.9

Embiid drops a bit because his statistics are regressed more than other top NCAA prospects, as he played relatively few minutes due to his back injury and foul trouble. Those factors are concerns, but Embiid's projected true shooting percentage ranks fourth among players in Ford's top 30, and he projects in the top 25 percent of past center prospects in rebound, steal and block rate, highlighting his defensive potential.


7. Jabari Parker, F, Duke Blue Devils
Win%: .444 | Age: 19.1 | WARP projection: 2.5

Among likely NCAA first-round picks, only Doug McDermott has a higher projected usage rate than Parker, who should be able to create his own shot immediately. In time, he should also become an efficient scorer, and he's a good enough rebounder to handle either forward spot. The questions about Parker almost entirely center around his defense.


8. Noah Vonleh, PF, Indiana Hoosiers
Win%: .430 | Age: 18.7 | WARP projection: 2.4

Vonleh's skill set is raw, particularly on offense, where his projected usage rate is the lowest of any likely lottery pick. However, his solid rebounding and smooth shooting stroke project a quality role player.

9. P.J. Hairston, SG, Texas Legends (NBA D-League)
Win%: .469 | Age: 21.3 | WARP projection: 2.0

The season Hairston spent playing in the D-League did little to change his projection, which also includes his final two seasons at North Carolina. He can supply instant offense from the bench with reasonable efficiency.


10. Tyler Ennis, PG, Syracuse Orange
Win%: .432 | Age: 19.7 | WARP projection: 2.0

For a freshman point guard, Ennis was remarkably sure-handed. Outside of Exum, his projected assist rate is the best of any likely first-round pick. But Ennis' elite steal rate, compiled as part of Syracuse's 2-3 zone, should be treated with some skepticism.


11. Gary Harris, SG, Michigan State Spartans
Win%: .428 | Age: 19.6 | WARP projection: 1.9

A well-rounded shooting guard who is young for a sophomore, Harris could develop into a quality starter if he shoots 3-pointers more like he did as a freshman (41.1 percent) than he did as a sophomore (35.2 percent).


12. Jarnell Stokes, PF, Tennessee Volunteers
Win%: .441 | Age: 20.3 | WARP projection: 1.9

Stokes is this year's foremost example of an undersized power forward who the scouts have largely ignored but the numbers really like. He's young for a junior, a terror on the offensive glass and a skilled scorer.


13. Doug McDermott, F, Creighton Bluejays
Win%: .480 | Age: 22.3 | WARP projection: 1.8

McDermott's projected win percentage for next season ranks sixth in the draft, but his age pushes down his WARP projection. Perhaps not far down enough: While McDermott is likely to be a good scorer right away, his defensive statistics are appalling. In four years, he totaled 34 steals and 14 blocks -- 152 NCAA players had that many last season alone, per Sports-Reference.com. So he'll surely have to be hidden on defense.


14. Aaron Gordon, PF, Arizona Wildcats
Win%: .396 | Age: 18.6 | WARP projection: 1.7

Statistically, Gordon would have been better off sitting out last season. If all we had to go on was his U-19 performance, when he won MVP, he'd be near the top of this last. But Gordon's steal rate didn't translate in Arizona's more conservative defensive scheme, and his sub-50 percent free throw shooting tanked his efficiency. If Gordon can lick his shooting wounds, the rest of his game is star-caliber.


15. Julius Randle, PF, Kentucky Wildcats
Win%: .412 | Age: 19.4 | WARP projection: 1.6

Over the course of the season, Randle improved his much-maligned steal rate. But both his steal and block rates remained poor for a power forward. And as good as he was on the glass, Randle's 2-point percentage ranks below average, as his shot tends to get blocked frequently by longer defenders.


16. Kyle Anderson, SF, UCLA Bruins
Win%: .442 | Age: 21.0 | WARP projection: 1.5

A unique figure statistically, Anderson rebounds like a power forward and dishes assists like a point guard. He's not a major threat without the ball in his hands, so whatever team drafts Anderson may need to make him the focal point of its offense, a role justified by his quality decision-making ability.


17. K.J. McDaniels, SF, Clemson Tigers
Win%: .445 | Age: 21.2 | WARP projection: 1.5

Of all the athletic wings in the draft, McDaniels comes out on top largely due to his block rate, which is the best of any non-center likely to be picked in the first round. However, his poor 3-point shooting (31.3 percent career from the NCAA line) may make it difficult for him to help space the floor.

18. Dario Saric, F, Croatia
Win%: .415 | Age: 20.0 | WARP projection: 1.4

As Adriatic League MVP this year, Saric played more than well enough to merit a spot in the lottery. However, in other scenarios where he hasn't had the ball in his hands so frequently, his numbers have been more pedestrian. That, along with inefficient scoring, drags down his projection.


19. Andrew Wiggins, SF, Kansas Jayhawks
Win%: .392 | Age: 19.2 | WARP projection: 1.3

A possible No. 1 pick, Wiggins didn't perform like one during his lone NCAA season. Wiggins is better than his projection because of his potential as an on-ball defender, but nothing in his stat line suggests likely superstardom. In particular, his projected usage rate (18.8 percent) is unspectacular for an NBA-bound wing, highlighting the improvement Wiggins needs to make handling the basketball.


20. Nik Stauskas, SG, Michigan Wolverines
Win%: .419 | Age: 20.5 | WARP projection: 1.2

Among first-round picks, only McDermott projects as a better shooter from 3-point range than Stauskas (38.0 percent), who should be a rotation player from day one. Whether Stauskas can grow into a larger role will depend primarily on his defense. Just two players (McDermott and Rodney Hood) have worse projected steal rates among first-round picks.


21. Shabazz Napier, PG, Connecticut Huskies
Win%: .460 | Age: 22.8 | WARP projection: 1.1

The Final Four Most Outstanding Player rates as a quality reserve right away. At nearly 23, Napier's upside is limited, but his ability to score and help teammates should keep him in the league for a decade or more.


22. Zach LaVine, G, UCLA Bruins
Win%: .376 | Age: 19.1 | WARP projection: 0.9

LaVine flashed star potential early in the season, but his numbers dropped severely in conference play. His impressive athleticism didn't translate to a high 2-point percentage, and he'll have to improve as a 3-point shooter to score efficiently. LaVine's assist rate was also below average for a combo guard. But he did do a good job of taking care of the ball.


23. James Young, W, Kentucky Wildcats
Win%: .362 | Age: 18.7 | WARP projection: 0.8

Young didn't make much of an impression in the box score defensively, with a poor rebound rate for a wing and a steal rate marginally better than Stauskas'. To provide value, he'll have to shoot the 3 well; he finished at just 34.9 percent even after an NCAA tournament hot streak.


24. Elfrid Payton, PG, Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns
Win%: .393 | Age: 20.2 | WARP projection: 0.8

Payton filled up the defensive box score, with an excellent rebound rate and above-average steal and block rates. The question is whether he can be efficient on the offensive end. He projects to shoot below-average rates from both inside (43.2 percent) and outside (29.5 percent) the arc, and only Saric has a higher projected turnover percentage.


25. T.J. Warren, SF, North Carolina State Wolfpack
Win%: .395 | Age: 20.6 | WARP projection: 0.6

A 2-point specialist in an era where 2s are out of vogue, Warren is a throwback. To score efficiently while generating so few 3-pointers and trips to the free throw line, Warren will have to prove even more accurate than his projected 50.7 percent 2-point shooting.


26. Cleanthony Early, SF, Wichita State Shockers
Win%: .419 | Age: 23.0 | WARP projection: 0.0

Early is considered the top 3-and-D role player in this year's draft. That's contingent on him shooting more like last season (37.3 percent) than his first year at Wichita State (31.8 percent). At 23, Early is a relatively finished product, so he'll need to contribute immediately to justify a first-round pick.


27. Adreian Payne, PF, Michigan State Spartans
Win%: .418 | Age: 23.2 | WARP projection: -0.1

As with Early, Payne's age pushes down his WARP projection -- all the way into the negatives. That may be too pessimistic, though, as Payne could develop into the rare stretch 4 who is an asset, and not a liability, on the defensive end.


28. Rodney Hood, SF, Duke Blue Devils
Win%: .379 | Age: 21.5 | WARP projection: -0.2

Hood isn't much of a presence on the glass for a wing and has a poor steal rate. His scoring efficiency during his season at Duke was predicated on 42.0 percent 3-point shooting. If Hood can't keep that up in the NBA, he won't have much value.


29. Jerami Grant, SF, Syracuse Orange
Win%: .340 | Age: 20.1 | WARP projection: -0.4

Grant's middling rebound, steal and block rates in Jim Boeheim's zone may sell his athleticism short. But Grant will have to be excellent defensively to get run in the NBA, since his lack of shooting ability (six 3-pointers in two college seasons) will make him a liability on the perimeter.


30. Jordan Clarkson, PG, Missouri Tigers
Win%: .374 | Age: 21.9 | WARP projection: -0.5

A big point guard, Clarkson played his way into the first round during workouts, a valuation his numbers don't support. Clarkson's assist rate was poor for a point guard, and he's a below-average finisher. Because of a transfer year, Clarkson is already 22, limiting his upside.




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



Second-round steals


1. Nikola Jokic, C, Serbia
Win%: .468 | Age: 19.2 | WARP projection: 3.1

Reports originally indicated Jokic would pull his name out of the draft before Monday's deadline. But he stayed in, ostensibly after getting a draft promise. Whoever takes Jokic in the second round will be getting a top-five value, statistically.


2. Javon McCrea, PF, Buffalo Bulls
Win%: .482 | Age: 21.5 | WARP projection: 2.2

Along with Stokes, McCrea is carrying the torch for undersized power forwards. He actually isn't much of a rebounder, but used his athleticism to post impressive steal and block rates while playing a key role in the Bulls' offense.


3. Khem Birch, P, UNLV Rebels
Win%: .451 | Age: 21.6 | WARP projection: 1.5

The Pittsburgh transfer quietly had a nice junior season at UNLV, averaging 13.0 rebounds and 4.8 blocks per 40 minutes. Also a quality finisher, Birch should be able to carve out a career as a backup center.

4. Damien Inglis, SF, France
Win%: .381 | Age: 18.9 | WARP projection: 1.2

With the international pool depleted by withdrawals, the athletic Inglis has emerged as one of the top draft-and-stash prospects available.

5. Spencer Dinwiddie, PG, Colorado Buffaloes
Win%: .423 | Age: 21.0 | WARP projection: 1.1

A torn ACL ended Dinwiddie's junior season, but he entered the draft anyway. Any team willing to endure a couple of months of rust as Dinwiddie works his way back will be rewarded with a combo guard big enough to defend both guard spots, and a solid outside shooter as well.

6. Walter Tavares, C, Spain
Win%: .443 | Age: 22.1 | WARP projection: 1.0

Though 22, the 7-foot-3 center from the island nation of Cape Verde is a project because of his limited high-level experience. In his first full ACB season, Tavares excelled on the defensive glass, though his height hasn't yet translated into elite shot-blocking.


7. Scottie Wilbekin, PG, Florida Gators
Win%: .419 | Age: 21.0 | WARP projection: 1.0

Though he played four years, the point guard from the nation's No. 1 team entering last year's NCAA tournament is just barely 21, suggesting some untapped potential if he can avoid the disciplinary issues that plagued him in college.


8. Langston Galloway, G, Saint Joseph's Hawks
Win%: .444 | Age: 22.4 | WARP projection: 0.9

A 6-2 off guard, Galloway rates as a quality second-round pick entirely on the strength of his shooting. He shot 42.6 percent in his college career, including 44.3 percent as a senior. Consider him the most likely equivalent to Troy Daniels in this year's draft.


9. Lamar Patterson, W, Pittsburgh Panthers
Win%: .449 | Age: 22.7 | WARP projection: 0.9

A well-rounded wing, Patterson ranked second in the ACC in assist rate, per Sports-Reference.com. He can score too, and developed into a 38.8 percent shooter from 3-point range. Patterson's versatile skill set could make him an immediate contributor off the bench.


10. Bryce Cotton, PG, Providence Friars
Win%: .428 | Age: 21.7 | WARP projection: 0.9

The NCAA's iron man, Cotton played 1,398 of a possible 1,450 minutes for the Friars last season while nearly doubling his assist rate. That was an important development because at 6-1, the high-scoring Cotton will have to play the point in the NBA.

Ford's top 100 ranked by WARP projections

Full WARP Projections
Rank Name Pos From Win% WARP
6 Marcus Smart PG Oklahoma State .512 3.6
27 Clint Capela PF Switzerland .497 3.4
19 Jusuf Nurkic C Bosnia .490 3.3
4 Dante Exum PG Australia .468 3.3
42 Nikola Jokic C Serbia .468 3.1
29 Jordan Adams SG UCLA .480 3.0
2 Joel Embiid C Kansas .480 2.9
3 Jabari Parker F Duke .444 2.5
5 Noah Vonleh PF Indiana .430 2.4
76 Javon McCrea PF Buffalo .482 2.2
25 P.J. Hairston SG North Carolina .469 2.0
16 Tyler Ennis PG Syracuse .432 2.0
10 Gary Harris SG Michigan State .428 1.9
21 Jarnell Stokes PF Tennessee .441 1.9
12 Doug McDermott F Creighton .480 1.8
7 Aaron Gordon PF Arizona .396 1.7
8 Julius Randle PF Kentucky .412 1.6
26 Kyle Anderson SF UCLA .442 1.5
24 K.J. McDaniels SF Clemson .445 1.5
55 Khem Birch P UNLV .451 1.5
9 Dario Saric F Croatia .415 1.4
1 Andrew Wiggins SF Kansas .392 1.3
11 Nik Stauskas SG Michigan .419 1.2
37 Damien Inglis SF France .381 1.2
22 Shabazz Napier PG Connecticut .460 1.1
38 Spencer Dinwiddie PG Colorado .423 1.1
39 Walter Tavares C Spain .443 1.0
74 Scottie Wilbekin PG Florida .419 1.0
14 Zach LaVine G UCLA .376 0.9
93 Langston Galloway PG St. Joseph's .444 0.9
67 Lamar Patterson W Pittsburgh .449 0.9
58 Bryce Cotton PG Providence .428 0.9
31 Mitch McGary PF Michigan .440 0.8
15 James Young W Kentucky .362 0.8
13 Elfrid Payton PG Louisiana Lafayette .393 0.8
18 T.J. Warren SF North Carolina State .395 0.6
72 Roy Devyn Marble SF Iowa .414 0.6
66 Eric Moreland PF Oregon State .430 0.6
40 Vasilije Micic PG Serbia .385 0.6
45 Thanasis Antetokounmpo SF NBDL .399 0.6
65 Isaiah Austin PF Baylor .389 0.6
33 Glenn Robinson III SF Michigan .385 0.6
99 Chane Behanan PF Louisville .411 0.5
89 Fuquan Edwin SG Seton Hall .432 0.5
73 Mike Moser F Oregon .450 0.5
92 Juvonte Reddic PF Virginia Commonwealth .416 0.5
98 Langston Hall PG Mercer .427 0.4
91 Taylor Braun SF North Dakota St .424 0.2
43 Bogdan Bogdanovic SG Serbia .399 0.2
88 Ioannis Papapetrou SF Greece .361 0.1
80 Devon Collier PF Oregon State .430 0.1
64 Aaron Craft PG Ohio State .426 0.1
96 George Beamon SG Manhattan .420 0.0
28 Cleanthony Early SF Wichita State .419 0.0
87 Alec Brown C Wisconsin Green Bay .391 0.0
48 Nick Johnson SG Arizona .381 0.0
90 Josh Huestis F Stanford .401 -0.1
17 Adreian Payne PF Michigan State .418 -0.1
20 Rodney Hood SF Duke .379 -0.2
70 Melvin Ejim SF Iowa State .415 -0.2
50 Deonte Burton PG Nevada .408 -0.2
97 Daniel Miller C Georgia Tech .406 -0.2
46 Russ Smith SG Louisville .407 -0.3
94 Richard Solomon PF California .381 -0.3
34 Patric Young C Florida .389 -0.3
85 Geron Johnson SG Memphis .378 -0.3
56 Johnny O'Bryant PF LSU .358 -0.4
61 Cory Jefferson PF Baylor .411 -0.4
30 Jerami Grant SF Syracuse .340 -0.4
86 Alex Kirk C New Mexico .390 -0.4
81 Keith Appling PG Michigan State .384 -0.4
79 Sean Kilpatrick SG Cincinnati .428 -0.5
23 Jordan Clarkson PG Missouri .374 -0.5
82 Travis Bader SG Oakland .393 -0.5
32 C.J. Wilcox SG Washington .404 -0.5
84 Philipp Neumann PF Germany .377 -0.6
59 Markel Brown SG Oklahoma State .377 -0.6
35 Joe Harris SG Virginia .385 -0.6
68 LaQuinton Ross SF Ohio State .353 -0.8
63 Jabari Brown SG Missouri .351 -0.8
47 DeAndre Daniels SF Connecticut .359 -0.9
49 Alessandro Gentile SF Italy .344 -0.9
75 Tarik Black P Kansas .365 -1.0
52 James Michael McAdoo PF North Carolina .334 -1.1
57 Nemanja Dangubic SG Serbia .328 -1.2
53 Dwight Powell PF Stanford .360 -1.3
54 C.J. Fair SF Syracuse .356 -1.3
51 Jahii Carson PG Arizona State .333 -1.3
44 Jordan McRae SG Tennessee .362 -1.4
41 Semaj Christon PG Xavier .322 -1.5
95 Casey Prather SF Florida .346 -1.7
83 Jakarr Sampson PF St. John's .305 -1.7
77 Xavier Thames PG San Diego State .348 -1.8
60 DeAndre Kane PG Iowa State .372 -2.1
78 Roscoe Smith SF UNLV .322 -2.3
71 Jordan Bachynski C Arizona State .357 -2.3
Click to expand...
 
tyisny said:
Rondo, Bradley, Green & Love is a top 4 team in the east easily. Add a few more shooters through FA and that team could be a serious threat.
Click to expand...

Green and Bradley gotta get moved or benched. Both suck.

I hope we get Randle if we don't get love.
 
Sixers had Wiggins in for a private workout and dinner yesterday. Had him sneak out the backdoor of the practice stadium and immediately hop into a black SUV to the airport without any Philly writers being able to track him down.
 
Buc Em said:
Sixers had Wiggins in for a private workout and dinner yesterday. Had him sneak out the backdoor of the practice stadium and immediately hop into a black SUV to the airport without any Philly writers being able to track him down.
Click to expand...


Your man crush is in the Land right now.. Working out for the team that controls his sack if they want to.
 
Theres always at least one big bust. Who do you think is the Adam Morrisson/Darko of this draft?
 
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