The College Basketball Post

[ThaxbyChamblis]

Ok, so its not just me.....I try to explain it to my dudes, but I can't really put into words whats wrong....But I know something is not right....

And yeah...Eddie Sutton is Win-Chasing like GP was Ring Chasing...I hope Bouldin, Pargo and Heytvelt give them the business...

Austin Daye is small as %#** (pause)

 

[craftsy21]

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January 21, 2008
[font=times new roman, times, serif]Ken's Mailbag[/font]
Addressing Some Pressing Issues

by Ken Pomeroy
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With college football season in the past and the pros winding down, my inbox is starting to fill. Let's address a couple of the more pressing issues over the past week...

Ken, I was wondering if you could tell me what North Carolina's defensive ratings looked like going through the '05 season. Roy Williams commented in an interview today that the '05 team did not start playing defense until midway through the ACC season and I was wondering how this team compares to that team at similar points.
Thanks,
Brian


Interesting question, Brian. Being that 2005 was my first season tracking possession data in real time throughout the season, I remember it well. At this time three years ago, we knew that UNC was dominant, yet there were a handful of critics of their defense. In fact, it's my recollection that the concerns about their defense were bigger then than they are today. The only reason this is so clear to me because I recall that it was the best case of possession stats contradicting public perception that season. UNC's ultra-fast pace (there were just two teams that averaged more possessions per game) led many mainstream analysts down the wrong path.

At this time in 2005, UNC had the eighth-best adjusted defensive efficiency in the country. They would finish the season ranked sixth. The Heels defense was solid to this point; maybe it improved slightly as the season continued, but certainly not in a statistically significant way. That's not to say that this season's defense can't improve as much as it needs to in order to make Carolina's title hopes legitimate. In fact, they're just two good defensive games or so from putting their defense back in the acceptable range. It should be noted that "acceptable" used here is relative to a team trying to win a title.

That's why UNC's ranking hovering the 30s and 40s over the last two weeks is noteworthy. Since I've been tracking adjusted defensive efficiency over the last four seasons, the worst defense to make it to the Final Four was George Mason's in 2006. The Patriots' D entering that season's tournament ranked 23rd in the country. That's why I don't yet buy that UNC is part of a Fantastic Four that has separated itself from the rest of the country. They may get there, but until the defense improves, UNC is part of the rest.

I mentioned earlier that I thought there was more criticism of the Carolina D in 2005 than this season. I can never prove that this is true, but one reason it may be is because of the quality of the offenses UNC has faced.

      Opponents' Adj. OE    Rank        (through 1/20)2005        104.7             372008        102.5            104

The Tar Heels have played a schedule that had featured some impressive defenses, but a bunch of ordinary or worse offenses (with the exception of Clemson). This will continue through early March because the ACC as a group is much better on the defensive end. There are currently just four teams in the conference with an adjusted offensive efficiency in the top 50 nationally. One is the Tar Heels themselves and one is Georgia Tech, who they don't play again.

Ken, I read your article with interest and am curious as to why you said that the Memphis non-conference schedule was not terribly impressive. As of this date it ranks 31st, using your statistics. Just three teams in your top 30 have better schedules, one of which (Arizona) the Tigers have already beaten. The other two (Gonzaga and Tennessee) are also on their schedule.
Thanks in advance for your time,
Roy


Ah, the old strength of schedule debate. It's almost like a dig on a team's schedule is like a dig on the team itself, but the two can be totally independent.

This is one of those age-old issues that has always been difficult to handle. There's a problem with describing schedule strength using one number in that some information gets left out. Take, for instance, the situation where one team plays the best and worst team in Division I, and another plays games against two teams whose ability is slightly above the Division I average. If you're a top-ten team, you're more likely to go 2-0 against the latter schedule. In an average SOS calculation, the latter schedule would also look more difficult. This gets back to the issue of context. I'll take as much data as I can get my hands on to evaluate a team, but in the end, that data needs context. In the case of Memphis schedule, the decision to play Arizona as opposed to Wisconsin-Green Bay is worth about the same in terms of SOS impact as the decision to play Pepperdine instead of New Jersey Tech. Yet the latter decision (which is purely hypothetical, by the way) has no impact on how difficult Memphis' schedule really is. Then there's the additional information that Arizona's Jerryd Bayless was a game-time scratch against Memphis. This, of course, is not included in any SOS calculations. Thus, blindly using one SOS number--especially if it's the RPI which doesn't account for venue--can be misleading.

That's not to say Memphis' schedule has been weak. Not by any means. But it's lacked the marquee matchups against potential Final Four teams (with the possible exception of Georgetown) that I'd like to see to get a better idea of how good they are. That's not unique to Memphis. None of the top teams have had a game like that, which strikes me as unusual. Just think, last season we had UNC/Ohio State, Florida/Kansas, Ohio State/Florida and UCLA/Texas A&M. That's four matchups among teams that were thought to be Final Four teams. Memphis/Georgetown is the closest thing to a game like that this season.

Ken Pomeroy is an author of Basketball Prospectus. You can contact Ken by clicking here or click here to see Ken's other articles.

 

[jrellcuse10]

Originally Posted by MBen32

Just lookin at things

and I hate to say it...Coach K is COY of the year so far

They're not the #3 team in the country but still, he's got them playin to their strengths and doin a great job of it

but don't jinx us

Was more of a balanced effort for G-Town, you know how they do....

Buy for 'Cuse....Lil Johnny Flynn was KILLIN out there....He almost his the game winner.....!%%# was halfway down then it rimmed out...

yo flynn is that dude, everytime i watched him, he plays very well, dude gets no love like other freshman out there...would i be crazy to say flynn is up there with gordon/rose/mayo?? as far as freshman guards??

Dajuan played like crap, took a bad shot and fouled on a 3 late in the game.
Damn. come on Dajuan, you one of the few dudes other than dukies, that i show love too..maryland native so i gotta gas em

he cant look bad on nat'l tv cause i know my boys is watching and they probably gonnab calling me first thing in the morning

Jonny gets no love because of our record. All of those freshman have done a lot to help their respective teams win. Flynn gives a huge amount but there aregames where we don't get the W.

 

[craftsy21]

Man - watching OSU lose to Texas tonight really makes me worry about whether this group of guys will ever get it together down there.

Think of everyone this team could have right now... 5 five-star guys and about 5 4-star recruits... including a mr. Gerald Green.

okay so he was nevergonna still be there even if he had gone for a year.. But seriously, even now, they still have 3 5-star recruits and a plethora of other very solid talent. Youcan see that's not just misreads in talent either, when they're playing well, they are tough as hell. I just can't figure out what's goingwrong down there - i have to blame coaching i guess, there's too much down there to not be getting more out of. Eaton and Anderson alone should be goodenough to get them dancing this year, and it's just not going to happen.. not even close. They're just so damn inconsistent... ugh, frustrating.

Next year's the year.. if Anderson doesn't try his hand in the pro's, (by the way, he's a great player if you guys haven't seen him yet...)they'll have almost the same lineup next year with a little more experience.

Anybody seeing anything out of them as to why they're so inconsistent?

 

[ThaxbyChamblis]

Originally Posted by Craftsy21

Man - watching OSU lose to Texas tonight really makes me worry about whether this group of guys will ever get it together down there.

Think of everyone this team could have right now... 5 five-star guys and about 5 4-star recruits... including a mr. Gerald Green.

okay so he was never gonna still be there even if he had gone for a year.. But seriously, even now, they still have 3 5-star recruits and a plethora of other very solid talent. You can see that's not just misreads in talent either, when they're playing well, they are tough as hell. I just can't figure out what's going wrong down there - i have to blame coaching i guess, there's too much down there to not be getting more out of. Eaton and Anderson alone should be good enough to get them dancing this year, and it's just not going to happen.. not even close. They're just so damn inconsistent... ugh, frustrating.

Next year's the year.. if Anderson doesn't try his hand in the pro's, (by the way, he's a great player if you guys haven't seen him yet...) they'll have almost the same lineup next year with a little more experience.

Anybody seeing anything out of them as to why they're so inconsistent?

 

[wildkycat]

%#*% Eddie and Sean Sutton.



from Doug Gottlieb:

Thank goodness that Kentucky vs. Florida went OT on Saturday night since referee Mike Kitts made one of the all-time phantom calls to put Jai Lucas at the line and potentially ice the game. Kitts, even though Florida appeared to be stuck between calling a timeout and getting a five-second call, ran in and called a non-existent foul on Jodie Meeks (he fouled out on the play) with 17 seconds left. Lucas missed the first of two free throws, made the second, Kentucky made a 3 to send it to OT and Florida won the game on its own merits.
told you we got screwed.

 

[duke4005]

Originally Posted by dreClark



Speaking of Gerald....Is it me....Or is something just not right about his game....Like he has a low B-Ball IQ or something..

I dunno, something just strikes me as odd about the way that he plays...

And lets not even bring up the end of regulation in the Pitt game..

I agree, reminds me of Ricky Price. You know if he put in work he could be a Grant Hill-sort, but he looks like he just started playing last year. I thinkit was Bilas Saturday who said it; he was a great golfer in High School as well as basketball, so he probably never focused on basketball, just got by onability.

 

[allen3xis]

wildcat, that was some phantom call

..just awful

 

[wildkycat]

man, i'm not usually one to blame the refs or anything, but that was ridiculous. with everything going as it is this season, it really stings when youget jobbed like that.

 

[scuse7]

I know you guys did get screwed. The win could have really helped you too.

 

[blazinjkid]

and I hate to say it...Coach K is COY of the year so far

They're not the #3 team in the country but still, he's got them playin to their strengths and doin a great job of it
eh, if you mean talent-wise, maybe not, but they way they have played, you could easily make the argument that they are. i'm a UNC/MD fan tilthe wheels fall off, but Duke is damn good this year. they tend to get overlooked somewhat because they don't have the Battier's or the household nameslike in years past, but as a unit, they're extremely strong. i think they'll split the series with the Heels and they could easily win the ACC thisyear.

and i know everyone is talking about Indiana, but MSU is the best team in the Big 10 this year. i can see them going DEEP in the tourney.

 

[seymore cake]

Originally Posted by dreClark

Was more of a balanced effort for G-Town, you know how they do.... J-Wallace had a nice game...Summers didnt really do much...

But for 'Cuse....Lil Johnny Flynn was KILLIN out there....He almost his the game winner.....*@*! was halfway down then it rimmed out...

I told y'all back around the Mickey D's game that he was officially that bidness... _'s didn't want to acknowledge it at 1st caught upwith Love OJ Gordon Beasley and Pooh (all of their attention is well deserved) Even tho they taking L's My Lil Man Gets It In!!!

 

[mben32]

Originally Posted by blazinjkid

and I hate to say it...Coach K is COY of the year so far

They're not the #3 team in the country but still, he's got them playin to their strengths and doin a great job of it

eh, if you mean talent-wise, maybe not, but they way they have played, you could easily make the argument that they are. i'm a UNC/MD fan til the wheels fall off, but Duke is damn good this year. they tend to get overlooked somewhat because they don't have the Battier's or the household names like in years past, but as a unit, they're extremely strong. i think they'll split the series with the Heels and they could easily win the ACC this year.

and i know everyone is talking about Indiana, but MSU is the best team in the Big 10 this year. i can see them going DEEP in the tourney.


When does Indiana and Michigan State play???

 

[mr subliminals]

NO WAY IS COACH K COY!

 

[scuse7]

Yea Johnny is that dude. He is top 10 freshman IMO.

He is a better scorer then i had anticipated. I thought he was more of the dribble and dump. But now i think he has realized that with the loss of Devo andScoop just not doing it. He has to score and shoot. Right now i like it.

 

[worldbeefreeg]

As an Indiana fan it hurts to say this but...the big 10 is turrible. I just dont understand why the teams are doing so poorly. Indiana is the only team I couldsee getting to the Elite 8 or final 4 out of the whole conference unless Neitzel really steps up his play. And to any Illinois head in her, Why CAN YOU GUYSNOT LAND ANY LOCAL TALENT? Sharron Collins, Julian Wright, Scheyer in past years all coming out of Illinois and you guys can recrutit one. I know Weber is agood coachb ut you need to get someone in there who can actually recruit worth a damn.

 

[allen3xis]

they aren't #3 imo, because they have beat who??

but Coach K does have a case for COY as much as anyone

My Lil Man Gets It In!!!

0-8.
Shooting by Jonny Flynn in the last 13:59 of game.




Don't get me wrong, dude is going to be a pain to deal with for 4 years

to go along with that, even if he only plays 20 minutes a game and is off the bench, you can't name 5 better perimeter defenders than Rivers


and I hate to say so, but Syracuse will be real good if some of those kids learn how to play and they come back.

And why does Mr. Magoo gota treat Paul Harris like crap every time I watch a game.

Flynn and Greene never get yelled at, while Paul and earlier this season Devo get chewed out constantly

 

[allen3xis]

Yo I know Brent Musberger be bettin on games now

dude just droppin info on the super bowl line and how much Vegas expects, before he dropped Phil Steele's name durin CFB, always brings up thelines

 

[craftsy21]

they aren't #3 imo, because they have beat who??

C'mon allen, you're better than that one... they're 4-1 vs the top 50 -- marquette and wisconsin are both great wins..

I think Duke is very underrated this year - 6th in offense, 4th in defense.. and somehow people are still kinda questioning them. I think they are a toughmatchup for anybody without a solid bench, because they'll wear you down with their defense.. and they'll put up points in a hurry on offense, from awhole crew of guys - they have about 5 guys who can go off for 20 points any given night. They may not look like memphis or kansas, but these guys provide adifferent sort of matchup problem than either of those two, imo.. And they're far more disciplined than either of those squads.

Don't get me wrong - i consider duke more of a 2/3 seed than a 1, come march.. but don't be surprised if nobody overtakes them for a 1 seed whenit's all said and done. I don't know who else besides Carolina really has the balls to take it from them.. right now tennessee has the last 1 seed onlock, in case anyone was wondering.

 

[allen3xis]

I don't consider Wisconsin or Marquette elite, I'll wait to see what they do against UNC

 

[mben32]

Originally Posted by Craftsy21

they aren't #3 imo, because they have beat who??

C'mon allen, you're better than that one... they're 4-1 vs the top 50 -- marquette and wisconsin are both great wins..

I think Duke is very underrated this year - 6th in offense, 4th in defense.. and somehow people are still kinda questioning them. I think they are a tough matchup for anybody without a solid bench, because they'll wear you down with their defense.. and they'll put up points in a hurry on offense, from a whole crew of guys - they have about 5 guys who can go off for 20 points any given night. They may not look like memphis or kansas, but these guys provide a different sort of matchup problem than either of those two, imo.. And they're far more disciplined than either of those squads.

Don't get me wrong - i consider duke more of a 2/3 seed than a 1, come march.. but don't be surprised if nobody overtakes them for a 1 seed when it's all said and done. I don't know who else besides Carolina really has the balls to take it from them.. right now tennessee has the last 1 seed on lock, in case anyone was wondering.


this man speaks the truth. preach brother

 

[seymore cake]

You're a Right Foul Trollip Allen

But that boi does get his locksmith on

 

[craftsy21]

Originally Posted by allen3xis

I don't consider Wisconsin or Marquette elite, I'll wait to see what they do against UNC

i can't tell you who you should think is elite or not, i can only present the facts... they're both legit top 20 teams and Duke beat them both.. asi've said and many have agreed, there's really only two elite teams this year, and outside of them everybody else is pretty similar until you get downto about the 35-40 range.


btw - the best game being played tonight is Drake vs Creigton.. anybody got it on TV somewhere?

 

[allen3xis]

I've always said Duke will beat teams they are supposed to beat, and their talent level is as good or greater than everyone they've faced

I can't see them being a top team at the end of the year

 

[blazinjkid]

"When does Indiana and Michigan State play???"
February 16th. besides UNC/Dook (and Memphis/Tenn), that's my most anticipated game of the season

and allen, i think you'll be surprised. i can see Dook winning the ACC and snatching that 1 seed away from UNC. the Heels seem disorganized and a littleunmotivated at times, and they've only really played 100% when they're in dire situations (i.e. Georgia Tech game, Clemson) and they won't beatDook unless they play 40 minutes.