The 2014-2015 NBA Season Thread. Lock It Up Please: The Golden State Warriors Are The Champions

Status
Not open for further replies.
here is the statistical again curve the decline starts at 30 and gets worse every year


Player performance with age.
AGE CHANGE EXPECTED PERFORMANCE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS SEASON
23 to 24 +2%
24 to 25 no change
25 to 26 -2%
26 to 27 -4%
27 to 28 -6%
28 to 29 -9%
29 to 30 -11%
30 to 31 -17%
31 to 32 -22%
32 to 33 -35%
33 to 34 -57%
34 to 35 -146%

Stats like this have so many variables that it makes no sense posting them.

1) I'm assuming this poll is a showcase of ALL players... superstar players don't have that drastic of fallofs in their 30's as compared to a marginal role player
2) This doesn't give a answer as to what expected Performance even means (What is the criteria, points, Per, Percentages ?)
3) This drastic dropoff if based off stats is stupid because it doesn't account for guys who may be playing less minutes, guys who may be on a better team therefore sacrificing numbers.

This is just a bunch of numbers that are vaguely presented when speaking on star players in the League.
 
What's your take on the Knicks rebuild around Phil/Melo? Where do you see it going?

Time is against the knicks.

Melo has realistically only 2 or maybe 3 years of elite performance left in him, the chances of the knicks assembling a good enough team to compete for a championship before he declines below elite status is unlikely. Once he falls below elite status the cap works against the knicki; paying melo more than he's worth means you wont be able to use free agency to get enough depth talent to win chip.

They have a high draft pick but even if they get #1 that player wont be good enough to compete for a ring for at least 3 years.

winning in 3 years would involve heavy morgatging of future, do the knicks really want to make the same mistakes they have been makig for the past 50 years?

The Cap going up might help, but tough to convince free agents to come to new york with the sorry state of the franchise.

The knicks are facing another 5+ years of irrelevance.
 
Im not the biggest melo fam but i think his game is gonna age extremely well. There won't be a sudden drop off. He will have that fat old man game.
 
Wow this picturei s hilarious to me.
laugh.gif
 
Stats like this have so many variables that it makes no sense posting them.

1) I'm assuming this poll is a showcase of ALL players... superstar players don't have that drastic of fallofs in their 30's as compared to a marginal role player
2) This doesn't give a answer as to what expected Performance even means (What is the criteria, points, Per, Percentages ?)
3) This drastic dropoff if based off stats is stupid because it doesn't account for guys who may be playing less minutes, guys who may be on a better team therefore sacrificing numbers.

This is just a bunch of numbers that are vaguely presented when speaking on star players in the League.

1. thats the point of averages with a big enough sample they weed out exceptional cases. obviously there are exceptions but you don't assume someone will be the exception.
2. every statsitcal system, PER, WS, Adjusted +/- is in agreement, players generally start decline at 30.




and you are right star players are different hence this chart.

insider_agingcurves1_mh_576x324.jpg



they make up for it with improved skills or position changes, but still not as good.
 
Im not the biggest melo fam but i think his game is gonna age extremely well. There won't be a sudden drop off. He will have that fat old man game.
I wanna agree but when I think about it....even guys who had their games age like fine wine already had the necessary pieces next to them develop at a level that was high enough to contribute. By the time Pierce was 30 he was blessed with KG and Ray Allen next to him, them being older was offset by being able to combine their still respectable skill levels. TD, Parker and Manu been together since 03. Kobe was given Gasol and Bynum had finally came into his own. We are starting from a further behind point. We have to hit a home run during the 14-15 offseason.
 
Im not the biggest melo fam but i think his game is gonna age extremely well. There won't be a sudden drop off. He will have that fat old man game.

i think melo will definitely age better than kd. at least when melo slows down he can slide to the 4 and still score in the post and rebound. idk what kd is gonna do at 32+
 
Im not the biggest melo fam but i think his game is gonna age extremely well. There won't be a sudden drop off. He will have that fat old man game.

i think melo will definitely age better than kd. at least when melo slows down he can slide to the 4 and still score in the post and rebound. idk what kd is gonna do at 32+
He's still gonna be 6'11. Can pull-up over 99.999% of defenders and should naturally be heavier by then. You can slide him over to the 4 and he'll still beat people off the dribble also.
 
Also let's get a definition of what a successfull rebuild is, because if it's simply getting a ring... in the past 20 years only the Lakers, Heat, Mavericks, Spurs, Celtics & Pistons have had a successful rebuild.

You just said Melo has about 3-4 Elite years left, his contract runs for 4 after this year. They have the opportunity to bring in another AS this year & draft someone in the top 5. so theoretically lets say, that rookie doesn't blossom until his fourth year.... You still have him under a rookie Deal, Whatever AS they pick up this year and Tons of Cap room to bring in players at that point.

After next year i think the Knicks will be a consistent playoff team in the East and that is a successful rebuild, coming from a team that had two winning seasons in 15 years, and were in a position to make a big acquisition via FA once.

As far as Championship, all of that comes by good fortune and building.
 
As expected, for those that are apparently very into this sort of thing, Josh Smith will wear No. 5, his number with the Hawks.
— Jonathan Feigen (@Jonathan_Feigen) December 26, 2014
Rockets with an extra long shootaround today. It's almost as if they have a new guy to get up to speed quickly.
— Jonathan Feigen (@Jonathan_Feigen) December 26, 2014
McHale admitted Rockets secret goal is to have "an all lefty team." Up to 6, Jones, Smith, Harden, Papanikolaou, Motiejunas, sort of Dwight.
— Jonathan Feigen (@Jonathan_Feigen) December 26, 2014
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top Bottom