Official Stock Market & Economy Thread

[finnns2003]

Originally Posted by Dey Know Yayo

oh and everyone keep following wawaweewa's posts. he knows his stuff.

finns- japan's economy is contracting huge bc its exports are getting killed. the yen carry trade held it up for a while but as the deleveraging and unwinding finally comes to a close (maybe this fall), the yen could get hit hard bc of the low interest rates and quantitative easing in japan. i think the dollar may overtake the yen as the best of the worst (fiat currencies) soon.

got it, thanks. i might want to get rid of it as time progresses...

 

[truth 15]

Is DKY's link not working for anyone else? It doesnt work for me.

DKY your info has been much appreciated

 

[theone2401]

Oh so DKY Gold double topped?
I told you so

I know your bullish on gold (so am i) but dont let your emotions dictate what you see on the charts. I am not the best trader in the world but it was clear asday.


It has actually fallen farther then I thought it would, I thought it would consolidate around 920, it just keeps on rolling 890's is my next target.

 

[dey know yayo]

i always said gold needed a pullback from $1000/oz... double top is usually a short trigger signaling the end of a rally. i didn't mean the technicaldefinition "double top"-- i'm just saying a pullback for a few weeks for it to base to continue its ascent is necessary from 1000/oz.

double top = stock is going to tank. gold is not goin to tank, it's goin to base out for its next price rise. i al.ways said this.

link still not working?

 

[nicefro]

what should the low from the double top be?

 

[theone2401]

Originally Posted by nicefro

what should the low from the double top be?

Well 720 is the bottom of the double top so you dont want to see it go below that. Its seemed to slow its decline at 900 (50 day moving average) or so. Ireally dont know it is hard for me to look at gold objectively.(I am a tin foil hat wearing gold bug) But if you are buying gold for its true purpose I wouldbuy it in 4ths on every dip. I only trade the ETF I buy gold coins for the end of the dollar.

double top is usually a short trigger signaling the end of a rally.


You are correct. Double top was an exaggeration in what I meant. I was trying to imply the pull back would be severe. You gave me the impression that youthought it would break the highs right then and there but then you clarified. But knowing what I know is going on in the world its just so hard for me tobelieve its going to go below the 50day MA. I dont remember if you said how much it would correct but do you think it will go down to 720 or does it stay upwhere it is. I am really torn on this because of the "fundamentals"

Bair Says Insurance Fund Could Be Insolvent This Year (Update1)

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By Alison Vekshin

March 4 (Bloomberg) -- Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Chairman Sheila Bair said the fund it uses to protect customer deposits at U.S. banks could dry up amid a surge in bank failures, as she responded to an industry outcry against new fees approved by the agency.

"Without these assessments, the deposit insurance fund could become insolvent this year," Bair wrote in a March 2 letter to the industry. U.S. community banks plan to flood the FDIC with about 5,000 letters in protest of the fees, according to a trade group.

"A large number" of bank failures may occur through 2010 because of "rapidly deteriorating economic conditions," Bair said in the letter. "Without substantial amounts of additional assessment revenue in the near future, current projections indicate that the fund balance will approach zero or even become negative."

The FDIC last week approved a one-time "emergency" fee and other assessment increases on the industry to rebuild a fund to repay customers for deposits of as much as $250,000 when a bank fails. The fees, opposed by the industry, may generate $27 billion this year after the fund fell to $18.9 billion in the fourth quarter from $34.6 billion in the previous period, the FDIC said.

The fund, which lost $33.5 billion in 2008, was drained by 25 bank failures last year. Sixteen banks have failed so far this year, further straining the fund.

Angry Bankers

Smaller banks are outraged over the one-time fee, which could wipe out 50 percent to 100 percent of a bank's 2009 earnings, Camden Fine, president of the Independent Community Bankers of America, said yesterday in a telephone interview.

"I've never seen emotions like this," said Fine, adding that he's received more than 1,000 e-mails and telephone messages from angry bankers.

"The FDIC realizes that these assessments are a significant expense, particularly during a financial crisis and recession when bank earnings are under pressure," Bair wrote. "We did not want to impose large assessments when the industry and economy are struggling. We searched for alternatives but found none better."

The agency, which has released the change for 30 days of public comment, could modify the assessment to shift the burden to the large banks "that caused this train wreck," Fine said. "Community bankers are feeling like they are paying for the incompetence and greed of Wall Street," he said.

Legal Constraints

Bair dismissed that suggestion.

"For risk-based assessments, our statute restricts us from discriminating against an institution because of size," Bair wrote.

The deposit insurance fund won't dry up because the government can get funds from the industry and congressional appropriations, and borrow from the Treasury, Chip MacDonald, a partner specializing in financial services at law firm Jones Day, said today in a telephone interview.

"As a depositor, I am not worried in the least," MacDonald said. "No one is going to let the FDIC go without any money."

Consumers should watch this issue closely, said Edmund Mierzwinski, consumer program director at U.S. PIRG, a Boston- based consumer-watchdog group.

"I wouldn't take their money out of the bank yet," Mierzwinski said. "If the FDIC is saying that there is this serious problem, then we should all be concerned. I think there is a chance the FDIC is going to have to ask taxpayers for money in the future."

No Taxpayer Funds

Bair rejected arguments that the agency should use government aid to rebuild the fund. The FDIC has authority to tap a $30 billion line of credit at the Treasury Department and legislation pending in Congress would boost the amount to $100 billion.

"Banks, not taxpayers, are expected to fund the system," Bair said. Asking for taxpayer support "could paint all banks with the 'bailout' brush."
The FDIC "will revise the interim rule, if appropriate, in light of the comments received," the agency said in a Federal Register notice

Guess who is going to bail the FDIC out? You

 

[vnsddnn]

Real Talk ... The companies that are losing money only because prices are going up are being effect by the oil, credit and housing crisis/situation. Theinvestment companies are failing because of greed. Common investors put money into stock companies believing that they will make a profit to offset inflationor putting money into something that will grow at a higher IR compared to the bank rates. Stock companies have to realize that they aren't growing, theyare established, R&D is not coming up with any new products. NO PRODUCT = NO PROFIT. My solution would've been to suspend payouts of stocks (maybe puta hold on dividend payments and cut all these crazy bonuses CEO's were receiving) and carefully manage the companies assets until profits were morevisible. Once a recession was realized, most companies should've gotten into bank mode, by hedging and making very safe investments with low returns. IMOthe bailout is the easy way out of a problem that has many different and difficult layers. Either way someone is going to get paid; I just hope it's theeveryday men and women living in America. This post is pretty good keep up the intellectual responses.

 

[truth 15]

link works thanks

 

[nicefro]

truth, still holding that srs position?

 

[banks2pierce]

Anyone catch that story on fake gold coming out of China? The amount of gold could now be far less than known and this could send the value up higher. Love mesome mining co's too.

 

[theone2401]

Originally Posted by Banks2Pierce

Anyone catch that story on fake gold coming out of China? The amount of gold could now be far less than known and this could send the value up higher. Love me some mining co's too.

I was reading about them. They will fake anything.

I dunno how much fake gold from China has been considered real but I can tell you there are a bunch of other places people think they have gold and they dontand if they were ever audited the price of gold would sky rocket.

 

[finnns2003]

i saw that tidbit on the fdic increasing the limit to 250k. i still wouldn't trust the fdic.

 

[truth 15]

what up nicefro

No i sold my srs position and im kicking myself for it. I have been getting slaughtered these last four weeks. Financials have killed me same with FAS.

The only decent moves I've made were buying FCX at 25 and USO at 23.7. I have a lot of ground to make up now.

I want to buy gld, eem, and x/schn. Funds are dried up though

What are you holding and how is your portfolio?

 

[nicefro]

holding fas from $10.88 getting raped. and cash.

 

[tsman]

Financials hammmered. Cant believe you are still holding FAS. These levered ETF's are not to be held overnight, especially for that long. SKF and FAZ uphuge. Out of the money puts on these last night are big for me today. Just put 5k in the market a week ago, and this is my first big day.

 

[nicefro]

Wow.

 

[foodgoeshere]

nicefro, it looks like you're going to ride this one out. you might have some hope with FAS if the feds rule against mark to market accounting on march12.

i've been looking and missing entry points for FAZ all week because i kept telling myself it's too high.

 

[curiousgeorg3]

im gonna go out on a limb and say we bottom short term tomorrow. unemplyment report + chance of hitting downtrending line + oversold indicators = bounce

similar scenarios to the oct and nov bottoms

 

[tsman]

You may be right. Wowow SKF sky high today, unreal. SKF will probably tank soon, I just exited all FAZ and SKF positions, would love to get in on some puts.Just to scared to do that today, maybe tomorrow morn. See how after hours look, and what news may come out.

 

[nicefro]

Generally, SKF is a beautiful short once it hits $200, but it's passed that, so I'd say it's pretty risky for you to write a put.

 

[tsman]

Write a put? I would be buying puts. But yes that is my thinking, I just dont have the balls to try and ride skf down soon. I think it may play up tomorrow andmonday, but be know it will sell off soon.

 

[dey know yayo]

another day, another six figures...

i'm betting 400-500k against the euro tomorrow heading into the weekend. something is brewing in europe, might go down this weekend.

 

[tsman]

Are you looking to get in right away against the euro, or more at market close and watch it throughout the day?

 

[dey know yayo]

whoever shorted SPG in early January like I vehemently suggested is up 50% in the same period the market is down 20%.

 

[dey know yayo]

we might get some bounce at dow 6500. the big move down i'm looking for hasn't happened yet, looking at the VIX. that may happen late next week. if wecontinue to sell off big on monday, we could bottom (for a few months) by mid next week.