OFFICIAL STOCK MARKET & ECONOMY THREAD VOL. SCHOOL'S OUT

[kicksfiend]

Originally Posted by theconditioner

Haven't been in here for a minute.

Originally Posted by wawaweewa

theconditioner wrote:

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kicksfiend wrote:

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theconditioner wrote:

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Guys, where are the fundamental analyses? I see a lot of technicals, but that is it.

Most of the people in here are short term traders, not long term investors.

Yeah, I know. But even traders need to consider the fundamentals.






When 70%+ of trading is done by algorithms fundamentals don't mean *++*.


Fundamentals are mostly a crock anyway except for connecting the dots
when it relates to what secondary and tertiary corp's benefit from
specific deals.


Fundamental's are good until you get enron'd or tyco'd.

You're better of sticking to TA and Macro analysis of sectors/market direction as a whole.



Seriously? So you're saying that simply looking at price graph will better prevent someone from "getting Enron'd", as opposed to performing due diligence on the company itself? Not really, unless of course you don't know how to properly analyze a company.


I'm not saying that people shouldn't consider the technicals. They do provide insight to the market's psychology. I'm saying that technicals shouldn't be the primary thing considered. IMO, estimate the value of the company and consider the macroeconomic environment first. If not, you're just gambling with your money.




At the end of the day, you're both right and wrong at the same time. It doesn't matter though. The good thing about the stock market is winners andlosers are clearly defined. It don't matter how you do your research, just how much money you make.

 

[theconditioner]

kicksfiend wrote:

At the end of the day, you're both right and wrong at the same time. It doesn't matter though. The good thing about the stock market is winners and losers are clearly defined. It don't matter how you do your research, just how much money you make.

We can agree on that one man.

 

[wawaweewa]

Originally Posted by theconditioner

Haven't been in here for a minute.

Originally Posted by wawaweewa

Originally Posted by theconditioner

Originally Posted by kicksfiend

Originally Posted by theconditioner

Guys, where are the fundamental analyses? I see a lot of technicals, but that is it.

Most of the people in here are short term traders, not long term investors.

Yeah, I know. But even traders need to consider the fundamentals.

When 70%+ of trading is done by algorithms fundamentals don't mean *++*.
Fundamentals are mostly a crock anyway except for connecting the dots when it relates to what secondary and tertiary corp's benefit from specific deals.
Fundamental's are good until you get enron'd or tyco'd.

You're better of sticking to TA and Macro analysis of sectors/market direction as a whole.

Seriously? So you're saying that simply looking at price graph will better prevent someone from "getting Enron'd", as opposed to performing due diligence on the company itself? Not really, unless of course you don't know how to properly analyze a company.

I'm not saying that people shouldn't consider the technicals. They do provide insight to the market's psychology. I'm saying that technicals shouldn't be the primary thing considered. IMO, estimate the value of the company and consider the macroeconomic environment first. If not, you're just gambling with your money.

The simple, unassailable fact is that unless you're an insider at a Corp. you cannot know whether everything is on the up and up. You cannot know if theyare or aren't cooking their numbers.
Even assuming that you know (from studying their numbers) they are cooking their figures that's not a reason notto trade their equity. In fact, it's a great reason to to get into that equity.

The hard part is getting out in time and that is one thing a non insider can never precisely timeespecially with the corrupt nature of the Feds and the SEC.

There are sources out there (IBD, Barrons, IB analyst reports etc) where you can obtain fundamental analysis on a Corp. with very little work. Their analysisis multitudes better than any layman can come up with even putting in 100's of hours of work.

There's no need to waste time on fundamental analysis of specific companies imo. Just log into IBD ,Barrons, or read a few analyst reports (take intoaccount their biases) and save some time.
It's not as if you can forsee when the Fed and SEC will come after a corp. which cooks its numbers.

The general macro environment is way different than fundamental analysis of a certain equity. I prefer macro analysis of specific markets and the overalleconomic state plus TA.
Unless you're investing 10's of millions in single equities (where you'll encounter problems if you need to unload your entire position quickly ifsomething out of the ordinary does happen) I don't really see the need for extensive personal fundamental analysis of a Corp.

 

[andycrazn]

Originally Posted by wawaweewa

Originally Posted by theconditioner

Haven't been in here for a minute.

Originally Posted by wawaweewa

Originally Posted by theconditioner

Originally Posted by kicksfiend

Originally Posted by theconditioner

Guys, where are the fundamental analyses? I see a lot of technicals, but that is it.

Most of the people in here are short term traders, not long term investors.

Yeah, I know. But even traders need to consider the fundamentals.

When 70%+ of trading is done by algorithms fundamentals don't mean *++*.
Fundamentals are mostly a crock anyway except for connecting the dots when it relates to what secondary and tertiary corp's benefit from specific deals.
Fundamental's are good until you get enron'd or tyco'd.

You're better of sticking to TA and Macro analysis of sectors/market direction as a whole.

Seriously? So you're saying that simply looking at price graph will better prevent someone from "getting Enron'd", as opposed to performing due diligence on the company itself? Not really, unless of course you don't know how to properly analyze a company.

I'm not saying that people shouldn't consider the technicals. They do provide insight to the market's psychology. I'm saying that technicals shouldn't be the primary thing considered. IMO, estimate the value of the company and consider the macroeconomic environment first. If not, you're just gambling with your money.

The simple, unassailable fact is that unless you're an insider at a Corp. you cannot know whether everything is on the up and up. You cannot know if they are or aren't cooking their numbers.
Even assuming that you know (from studying their numbers) they are cooking their figures that's not a reason not to trade their equity. In fact, it's a great reason to to get into that equity.

The hard part is getting out in time and that is one thing a non insider can never precisely time especially with the corrupt nature of the Feds and the SEC.

There are sources out there (IBD, Barrons, IB analyst reports etc) where you can obtain fundamental analysis on a Corp. with very little work. Their analysis is multitudes better than any layman can come up with even putting in 100's of hours of work.

There's no need to waste time on fundamental analysis of specific companies imo. Just log into IBD ,Barrons, or read a few analyst reports (take into account their biases) and save some time.
It's not as if you can forsee when the Fed and SEC will come after a corp. which cooks its numbers.

The general macro environment is way different than fundamental analysis of a certain equity. I prefer macro analysis of specific markets and the overall economic state plus TA.
Unless you're investing 10's of millions in single equities I don't really see the need for extensive personal fundamental analysis of a Corp.

bought a barrons once for class. freaking expensive and i didnt understand anything when i read the indicators. having a horrible macreconomicsprof. ftl

 

[theconditioner]

Originally Posted by wawaweewa


The simple, unassailable fact is that unless you're an insider at a Corp. you cannot know whether everything is on the up and up. You cannot know if they are or aren't cooking their numbers.
Even assuming that you know (from studying their numbers) they are cooking their figures that's not a reason not to trade their equity. In fact, it's a great reason to to get into that equity.

The hard part is getting out in time and that is one thing a non insider can never precisely time especially with the corrupt nature of the Feds and the SEC.

I can agree with that for the most part.

There are sources out there (IBD, Barrons, IB analyst reports etc) where you can obtain fundamental analysis on a Corp. with very little work. Their analysis is multitudes better than any layman can come up with even putting in 100's of hours of work.


Too bad they're not going to give you their true analyses, though. Most of these analysts provide overly-optimistic evaluations of companies they study(due to the nature of their relationships with the companies), so the information isn't very reilable.

 

[wawaweewa]

Originally Posted by theconditioner

There are sources out there (IBD, Barrons, IB analyst reports etc) where you can obtain fundamental analysis on a Corp. with very little work. Their analysis is multitudes better than any layman can come up with even putting in 100's of hours of work.

Too bad they're not going to give you their true analyses, though. Most of these analysts provide overly-optimistic evaluations of companies they study (due to the nature of their relationships with the companies), so the information isn't very reilable.




Well, of course. That's why the reader has to take their biases into account.

 

[scarface2k1]

any idea of when Dole is going public?

 

[theconditioner]

Originally Posted by wawaweewa

Originally Posted by theconditioner

There are sources out there (IBD, Barrons, IB analyst reports etc) where you can obtain fundamental analysis on a Corp. with very little work. Their analysis is multitudes better than any layman can come up with even putting in 100's of hours of work.

Too bad they're not going to give you their true analyses, though. Most of these analysts provide overly-optimistic evaluations of companies they study (due to the nature of their relationships with the companies), so the information isn't very reilable.

Well, of course. That's why the reader has to take their biases into account.
Exactly. And how do you know the extent to which their biases effect their conclusions? You don't, unless you put in work and make your ownestimates.

 

[lilchico4life]

Goldman Sachs bought 47 million Citigroup shares on Friday.

http://www.mffais.com/mffais-history-125469-c


They definitely know something we don't.

 

[finnns2003]

Originally Posted by LiLcHiCo4LiFe

Goldman Sachs bought 47 million Citigroup shares on Friday.

http://www.mffais.com/mffais-history-125469-c


They definitely know something we don't.

hmmm....

and when does DOLE go public? i remember when visa went public, i made a killing on that IPO

 

[bijald0331]

^That is as of 6/30/09. C has gained 22% since then.

 

[wawaweewa]

Originally Posted by theconditioner

Originally Posted by wawaweewa

Originally Posted by theconditioner

There are sources out there (IBD, Barrons, IB analyst reports etc) where you can obtain fundamental analysis on a Corp. with very little work. Their analysis is multitudes better than any layman can come up with even putting in 100's of hours of work.

Too bad they're not going to give you their true analyses, though. Most of these analysts provide overly-optimistic evaluations of companies they study (due to the nature of their relationships with the companies), so the information isn't very reilable.

Well, of course. That's why the reader has to take their biases into account.

Exactly. And how do you know the extent to which their biases effect their conclusions? You don't, unless you put in work and make your own estimates.



Of course you know. If they're playing it up, it means they bought into an equity not too long ago and if they're talking it down it means that theywan to buy it at a cheaper price.

Even if you can't pin down the exact extent of their biases, they have more access to critical data that is necessary in fundamental analysis that thelayman simply cannot acquire.
This holds true when it comes to analyst reports. Most analyst reports are 90% junk and 10% worthwhile. You're just trying to find the stuff that'sworthwhile.


IBD rates corp's based on fundamental analysis (among other things) and I'd say they're pretty good at it. They're certainly more objectivethan analyst reports but it's just a letter grade.

 

[kicksfiend]

Futures are falling fast. It just dropped below one of my key support lines. Chart coming as soon as I finish smoking this j.

 

[andycrazn]

Originally Posted by kicksfiend

Futures are falling fast. It just dropped below one of my key support lines. Chart coming as soon as I finish smoking this j.

same with gold, hk market took a huge hit today. guess the dollar is having a rally.

 

[kicksfiend]

Originally Posted by andycrazn

Originally Posted by kicksfiend

Futures are falling fast. It just dropped below one of my key support lines. Chart coming as soon as I finish smoking this j.

same with gold, hk market took a huge hit today. guess the dollar is having a rally.

Box shows futures movement since Fridays close. Hit that support and traded through it. Then dipped below and tried to come up and test it as resistance butfailed to do that. All good signs.

Conflicting currency data. GBP/USD up, EUR/USD up but USD/JPY down. Leads me to believe it's not so much the dollar rising as it is weakness with othercurrencies. EUR and GBP is weak off poor economic data but the Yen is rallying off greater demand.

Everything is falling in line with a lot of our predictions. I feel like many NTers are on the same page with bearish outlooks for the end of the year. I'mcurrently holding onto a huge amount of October/December puts. I'm looking to double/triple my trading account if the market moves to the downside. Themarket is going to open around that bubble drawn on the chart above. That puts it below a key horizontal price support as well as a trendline support. Shouldbe an interesting open this morning.

 

[lilchico4life]

Thanks for the chart kicksfiend.

S&P futures vs fair value: -16.30.
Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -25.00.
As of 6:23 ET

 

[reigndrop]

Market's toast, have fun shorting this market in the next few months boys.

 

[kicksfiend]

Originally Posted by reigndrop

Market's toast, have fun shorting this market in the next few months boys.

Shorting's great but people need to look into options. You can make more than 100% return on a downward movement with options (not possible with shorting).I have orders in for 100s of puts waiting to be filled this morning. I've been slowly piling all my capital into them. I'm trying to triple my tradingaccount this fall.

 

[throwedindagame]

FAZ on deck.
Looking into some puts.

 

[nicefro]

Originally Posted by kicksfiend

Originally Posted by reigndrop

Market's toast, have fun shorting this market in the next few months boys.

Shorting's great but people need to look into options. You can make more than 100% return on a downward movement with options (not possible with shorting). I have orders in for 100s of puts waiting to be filled this morning. I've been slowly piling all my capital into them. I'm trying to triple my trading account this fall.

You can definitely make more than 100% return shorting on downward movements. If you short 650,000 C shares at $3.96 for a $2,574,000 gain,covering your short at $1.39 at a cost of $903,500 would net you a profit of $1,670,500 which is 184.89% profit on your initial investment of $903,500.

 

[nicefro]

For those of you who can swing trade, look at ARIA.

 

[wawaweewa]

Commodities being hit hard. USD up. China's market is going to shed big seeing as it's been up around 85% and the Chinese are cooking their numbers.

I don't think this is the move down (historically those come in the fall- late Sept/Oct) but it should ride downas low as around 945 which is the 50 dma. 50% retracement from current highs to mid July lows is also around the mid o low 940's.
It really depends on how the USD moves. Much of the run up in the market has been due to USD weakness.

 

[lilchico4life]

982 has been acting as resistance almost all day. Hoping to see around 945-950 on S&P eventually, which is near 50dma.

 

[andycrazn]

Originally Posted by wawaweewa

Commodities being hit hard. USD up. China's market is going to shed big seeing as it's been up around 85% and the Chinese are cooking their numbers.

I don't think this is the move down (historically those come in the fall- late Sept/Oct) but it should ride down as low as around 945 which is the 50 dma. 50% retracement from current highs to mid July lows is also around the mid o low 940's.
It really depends on how the USD moves. Much of the run up in the market has been due to USD weakness.

yup the market loves a weak dollar

 

[andycrazn]

Originally Posted by kicksfiend

Originally Posted by reigndrop

Market's toast, have fun shorting this market in the next few months boys.

Shorting's great but people need to look into options. You can make more than 100% return on a downward movement with options (not possible with shorting). I have orders in for 100s of puts waiting to be filled this morning. I've been slowly piling all my capital into them. I'm trying to triple my trading account this fall.

gonna try it out then. getting puts on fas and calls on faz