OFFICIAL STOCK MARKET AND ECONOMY THREAD VOL. A NEW CHAPTER

tkthafm · Apr 30, 2019

xbiker47 said:
So much for hoping for Apple to dip any time soon

Very disappointing :lol:

I’m about 60% invested right now so I’m still profiting on this rise and making money, but i’m looking at that 40% cash in my account and just waiting for stocks to go on sale (I am holding treasuries so at least I'm still beating inflation while I wait).

I did expect a pullback by now but my overall view has not changed so I am in no rush to buy at these levels and chase. Maybe a nice summer clearance sale coming up? That would be great

tkthafm · May 1, 2019

Finally a red day

southernhospita · May 1, 2019

tkthafm said:
Finally a red day

Are you shorting anything or are you just waiting to grab some shares with a discount

tay1 · May 2, 2019

Errthang red

suavamente · May 2, 2019

not buying this beyond meat hype

goldenchild9 · May 2, 2019

suavamente said:
not buying this beyond meat hype

I like the company but.....$1.2 billion valuation and -$30 million yearly net revenue ain't adding up

southernhospita · May 2, 2019

tkthafm · May 3, 2019

southernhospita said:
Are you shorting anything or are you just waiting to grab some shares with a discount

Not short, as the saying goes "market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent" - and I don't think we are absurdly overbought yet, just due for a pullback. Let's see what happens with this china deal, probably the next major catalyst in either direction.

Considering a starter position on ATVI here @ ~48 through holiday season.

アミーゴ · May 3, 2019

I like ATVI here a lot at 48, been watching very carefully.

xbiker47 · May 3, 2019

Market already bounce back strong

southernhospita · May 3, 2019

tkthafm said:
Not short, as the saying goes "market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent" - and I don't think we are absurdly overbought yet, just due for a pullback. Let's see what happens with this china deal, probably the next major catalyst in either direction.

Considering a starter position on ATVI here @ ~48 through holiday season.

It’s been do for a pullback as long as FAANG stay solid and performing like its been doing
I have no problem with SPY falling back a bit
Because when it does the bear ETF’s skyrocket and that when I short them
Easy money I tell ya easy money

As far as investments everything I wouldn’t mind buying and holding is expensive to me
So for now I just **** with REITS and monthly dividend stocks so it can turn into compound interest by next year

Chopper · May 3, 2019

Only way the stock market is easy money is going LONG for the long haul. You aint shorting the S&P500 and making any significant money trying to time the downturns. Just go long and forget about timing it.

This market is going nowhere but up over the next couple years. We might see a quick correction but our economy is too strong for a prolonged bear market right now.

Cats been sitting on too much cash and missing big returns over the last couple years.

tkthafm · May 3, 2019

Chopper said:
Only way the stock market is easy money is going LONG for the long haul. You aint shorting the S&P500 and making any significant money trying to time the downturns. Just go long and forget about timing it.

This market is going nowhere but up over the next couple years. We might see a quick correction but our economy is too strong for a prolonged bear market right now.

Cats been sitting on too much cash and missing big returns over the last couple years.

I always hold long SPY, only problem I have is with how artificial everything is, everything is being manufactured specifically to push prices higher (manipulation by fed, white house, buybacks etc), you have trump and co calling for QE and rate cuts on a daily basis while the economy is supposed to be "strong" (despite the fact that growth and earnings are slowing both here and worldwide), and the last time the fed did raise rates markets crashed by 20% swiftly. It's a zombie market, blindly marching higher, and it's not healthy at all. Recessions, declines, volatility are normal and needed. Constantly pumping the market with stimulus and cheap cash is a recipe for disaster. It's probably futile to try to fight this trend, at least until elections, but let's see. I know I sound like one of those paranoid perma-bears who have been shorting and buying gold since 2011 calling for recession every single year, but I just don't like when things are too easy, and now things are damn easy.

I always laugh when I see articles like this, I picture them being archived in museums as signs of the excess optimism and exuberance right before a massive crash:

shibadekobe · May 3, 2019

tkthafm said:
I always hold long SPY, only problem I have is with how artificial everything is, everything is being manufactured specifically to push prices higher (manipulation by fed, white house, buybacks etc), you have trump and co calling for QE and rate cuts on a daily basis while the economy is supposed to be "strong" (despite the fact that growth and earnings are slowing both here and worldwide), and the last time the fed did raise rates markets crashed by 20% swiftly. It's a zombie market, blindly marching higher, and it's not healthy at all. Recessions, declines, volatility are normal and needed. Constantly pumping the market with stimulus and cheap cash is a recipe for disaster. It's probably futile to try to fight this trend, at least until elections, but let's see. I know I sound like one of those paranoid perma-bears who have been shorting and buying gold since 2011 calling for recession every single year, but I just don't like when things are too easy, and now things are damn easy.

I always laugh when I see articles like this, I picture them being archived in museums as signs of the excess optimism and exuberance right before a massive crash:

Dat you Mike Wilson?? :lol:

Spot on.

"Transitory" took down market 200pts. That's one word. Imagine a 50bp raise.

southernhospita · May 3, 2019

tkthafm said:
I always hold long SPY, only problem I have is with how artificial everything is, everything is being manufactured specifically to push prices higher (manipulation by fed, white house, buybacks etc), you have trump and co calling for QE and rate cuts on a daily basis while the economy is supposed to be "strong" (despite the fact that growth and earnings are slowing both here and worldwide), and the last time the fed did raise rates markets crashed by 20% swiftly. It's a zombie market, blindly marching higher, and it's not healthy at all. Recessions, declines, volatility are normal and needed. Constantly pumping the market with stimulus and cheap cash is a recipe for disaster. It's probably futile to try to fight this trend, at least until elections, but let's see. I know I sound like one of those paranoid perma-bears who have been shorting and buying gold since 2011 calling for recession every single year, but I just don't like when things are too easy, and now things are damn easy.

I always laugh when I see articles like this, I picture them being archived in museums as signs of the excess optimism and exuberance right before a massive crash:

No you don’t and a pullback in the market is perfectly healthy especially for us traders out here

If SPY is down for the day UVXY is up with no problem the **** literally happened yesterday after the FED meeting SPY went down a good 1 percent which set up for me to short UVXY the following day

They literally move opposite of each other
It’s just that UVXY has waaaaayyyy more volatility

UVXY was $98 a share back in November when shut was getting sold off now it’s $38 so like I said easy money shorting every pop easily

southernhospita · May 3, 2019

Any way any thoughts on Uber IPO it’s cheaper than LYFT. But I still feel it might fall definitely not going to trade it

It was fun shorting LYFT from $78 to $52
But I think $52 is the bottom for right now at least until their first ER report
LYFT has been squeezing shorts at the end of the week for a while now
Those lawsuits from early investors aren’t looking good especially for the bank employees that sold it to them for $72 a share

tkthafm · May 3, 2019

Shorting vol can be very profitable, I did it throughout 2017, just make sure you have enough liquidity or use stops because something like uvxy could double or triple on you very quickly, sometimes overnight.

One of the more interesting reads on vol from around the time XIV blew up last year:

https://static1.squarespace.com/sta...s_Volatility+and+the+Alchemy+of+Risk_2017.pdf

southernhospita · May 3, 2019

tkthafm said:
Shorting vol can be very profitable, I did it throughout 2017, just make sure you have enough liquidity or use stops because something like uvxy could double or triple on you very quickly, sometimes overnight.

One of the more interesting reads on vol from around the time XIV blew up last year:

https://static1.squarespace.com/sta...s_Volatility+and+the+Alchemy+of+Risk_2017.pdf

I usually don’t set up for overnight holds but yesterday’s action made me just off the fact that it was falling a bit after the spike up it definitely payed off the contracts were cheap since the week was ending so buying multiple contracts wasn’t a problem with good delta as well

I’m always careful though it’s fallen quite a bit so when the opportunity does come to short it I make sure that my other options are closed to have cash on hand

tay1 · May 4, 2019

suavamente said:
not buying this beyond meat hype

I feel as if they will be bought out. I know some company wants to mass produce that **** like crazy

shibadekobe · May 5, 2019

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/05/tru...ods-will-increase-to-25percent-on-friday.html

Ruh Roh...Gap Down tomorrow am?!?
*Vix at record lows...too cheap

tkthafm · May 5, 2019

shibadekobe said:
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/05/tru...ods-will-increase-to-25percent-on-friday.html

Ruh Roh...Gap Down tomorrow am?!?
*Vix at record lows...too cheap

Wow.

Tomorrow will be fun.