OFFICIAL STOCK MARKET AND ECONOMY THREAD VOL. A NEW CHAPTER

[Majorbread]

Yup been stacking cash in my roth IRA and 401k for the last two years waiting to get in on some great buying opportunities

 

[coolcool]

Isn’t it too obvious that it’s a buying opportunity? Can it be as easy as buying in the near future and hold? Man I sure hope so. Rigged game

What if the stock market just dies.

 

[Betonblck]

Isn’t it too obvious that it’s a buying opportunity? Can it be as easy as buying in the near future and hold? Man I sure hope so. Rigged game

What if the stock market just dies.

I don't think it is obvious at all? Think about all the people that are in tech stocks that are down 30-50%.

The media has been comparing the drop to 2008. This is a buying opportunity but not a buy and hold opportunity. We are in a period of high volatility, with lower highs and lower lows going forward. It will continue to be a traders market.

 

[johnnyredstorm]

I’d be buying and selling the rips. 1600 inevitable in the long run.

 

[southernhospita]

I definetly think it has turned into a traders market




But I’m looking into adding in some money to buy
REIT’s next year for the monthly dividend

 

[xbiker47]

Recommend some good dividend stocks

 

[Olympus]

My Portfolio is up 10% today. Feels like a trick though. Like the universe is giving me one last chance to get out before another plunge deeper

 

[tkthafm]

Algo's gone wild

EDIT: Holy....

This is why you don't panic sell on the lows especially when market is already ridiculously oversold. Insane rally today.

 

[Olympus]

Wow, nearly a 900 point rally from the lows today. ****

 

[tkthafm]

Wow, nearly a 900 point rally from the lows today. ****

Crazy

Things were looking awful then out of nowhere we went up in an almost straight vertical line.

 

[Olympus]

Crazy

Things were looking awful then out of nowhere we went up in an almost straight vertical line.

Tomorrow’s gonna be a blast

 

[noskey]

Cant wait. Combine that with rapidly slowing home buying and we're about primed for a bear market. But for the next 2 months, wild market swings both ways should be expected.

Posted this a month ago. Let's see how January goes?
Still stacking cash until a bear market takes solid hold.

 

[PRIME]

 

[Betonblck]

This is going to be a bear market more similar to 2001-2003 and not 2008-2009. Too many people are talking financial crisis and it never goes as expected.

It'll be a hard market to make money in. You can hold some solid dividend stocks and maybe you come out at break even or a little ahead with the dividends. If you are holding something like Apple that you bought at $230, we probably will never see Apple with a $1 trillion market cap again.

If the Fed pauses rate hikes early next year, or maybe does not hike rates at all next year, we could easily see a 10% return in stocks next year.

 

[Chopper]

This is going to be a bear market more similar to 2001-2003 and not 2008-2009. Too many people are talking financial crisis and it never goes as expected.

It'll be a hard market to make money in. You can hold some solid dividend stocks and maybe you come out at break even or a little ahead with the dividends. If you are holding something like Apple that you bought at $230, we probably will never see Apple with a $1 trillion market cap again.

If the Fed pauses rate hikes early next year, or maybe does not hike rates at all next year, we could easily see a 10% return in stocks next year.

I hope you're talking in 2019, cause we'll surely see AAPL at $1T market cap again in the next few years.

 

[Betonblck]

I hope you're talking in 2019, cause we'll surely see AAPL at $1T market cap again in the next few years.

I'm talking about for good. You think they will sell more iPhones at a higher price in a few years? That's what it would take. I would take that bet anyday.

People are not going to continue to upgrade to basically the same phone with 1 new feature for $1300 every 2 years. We have the lowest unemployment rate since the 1960s, that also needs to go even lower for Apple to sell more phones. If the rate goes to even 5% unemployment, Apple will be selling less phones.

Actually, it'll be years before we see another 1 trillion corporation, period, because money is coming out of stocks and risk assets as the Federal Reserve is winding down their balance sheet, which will cause interest rates to rise and investors will shift to more bonds.

 

[ASE]

Why not? Its been going on for over a decade. Why are you so certain it will stop?

 

[Betonblck]

Why not? Its been going on for over a decade. Why are you so certain it will stop?

It'll take more than that to move it past $1 Trillion. Money is coming out of stocks and will continue to come out of stocks over the next few years and PE multiples will continue to drop lower and lower.

We are past the period of stock prices going straight up like Amazon, Netflix, and Tesla due to multiple expansion from just more and more money going into stocks.

Cliff Notes: The stock market is like a ponzi scheme and you need more and more money to go into the market for the stock prices to go higher. Earning, valuations, and all the nonsense they teach you in a book isn't why stock prices go higher, more money going into stocks is what makes them go higher.

 

[johnnyredstorm]

If the market doesn’t tank because of the Fed Apple will continue to rise. It’s a dividend stock with a monster cash hall innovation and positive earnings.

 

[Betonblck]

China's economy is contracting, based upon the PMI. In a couple of weeks, we will find out in Apple's earnings report if they can sell $1200 iPhones to people in China that don't have jobs.

Apple is on its way down towards $100/share.

 

[johnnyredstorm]

They don’t need to cell phones to make money though. The bulk of their profit comes from services.

 

[turbospartan]

They don’t need to cell phones to make money though. The bulk of their profit comes from services.

I thought the bulk of their money was directly from iPhones?

Their computers dont have a huge market share. Is apple music that popular when you have spotify and other competition?

 

[Chopper]

I'm talking about for good. You think they will sell more iPhones at a higher price in a few years? That's what it would take. I would take that bet anyday.

People are not going to continue to upgrade to basically the same phone with 1 new feature for $1300 every 2 years. We have the lowest unemployment rate since the 1960s, that also needs to go even lower for Apple to sell more phones. If the rate goes to even 5% unemployment, Apple will be selling less phones.

Actually, it'll be years before we see another 1 trillion corporation, period, because money is coming out of stocks and risk assets as the Federal Reserve is winding down their balance sheet, which will cause interest rates to rise and investors will shift to more bonds.

I do think AAPL can sell more iPhones than they currently do. That, in addition to services and stock buybacks will drive up revenue and profit per share. Their PE is sitting at 13 TTM. I’d be shocked to see $100 per share before $200 per share.

 

[johnnyredstorm]

I thought the bulk of their money was directly from iPhones?

Their computers dont have a huge market share. Is apple music that popular when you have spotify and other competition?

It is but for them to be a $100 stock they need to sell like 50% less phones. Services provides them a nice cushion.

 

[tkthafm]

$BRZU performing really well, still optimistic about Brazil in 2019