The Republican Party is the most powerful political Party in the World. They pull off electoral wins all the time, when they don’t win they hamstring the winners of the election, they have disciplined strategy which includes using political capital to change the rules and secure more political capital. That’s the only reason I don’t consider this election as good as over.
That said, COVID is making a wipe out for Trump and other Republicans look inevitable. Trump really could have spun this to his advantage. He could have sent out large and recurring stimulus checks. Paid for PPE and testing, told his followers to wear a mask. He could then make himself into a wartime president the way Bush did. Trump could have been the sort of right populist that we all worry about, an unbeatable combination of harrenvolk socialist and culture warrior.
For Trump and other aspiring right populist, they are so constrained by capital they cannot do that strategy. Moreover, those who divide up the world in worthy and unworthy, along racial or national or gender lines, have trouble not seeing the poor and working class as undeserving of material assistance no matter how great the current crisis may be.
So Trump will keep muddling along with austerity for the masses and he’s going to bank on culture war issues and if that doesn’t work, he’ll declare any loss in any swing state to be fraudulent and hope enough governors and Federal Judges back him up.