***Official Political Discussion Thread***

[trappedintime]

With that said even removing his poll from the equation the polls in general are bleak

You do realize Nate Silver doesn’t have a poll, right? He aggregates all (validly weighted) data across polls and runs simulations of outcomes based on that data at an electoral level. But yes, the polls are very weak.

 

[Wargames]

You do realize Nate Silver doesn’t have a poll, right? He aggregates all (validly weighted) data across polls and runs simulations of outcomes based on that data at an electoral level. But yes, the polls are very weak.

But, but that proves my point. He still acts like a pollster but is a personality. I don’t trust him, and I trust him even less the more I hear about him.

 

[trappedintime]

But, but that proves my point. He still acts like a pollster but is a personality. I don’t trust him, and I trust him even less the more I hear about him.

He’s a statistician. He’s just calling out what even someone who took 100 level stats could piece together. It’s a low probability outcome of Biden winning. Democrats have their own polling on a county level which is supposedly even more grim in battleground states.

All the polling does is tell people who are awake what they already know.

 

[Wargames]

He’s a statistician. He’s just calling out what even someone who took 100 level stats could piece together. It’s a low probability outcome of Biden winning. Democrats have their own polling on a county level which is supposedly even more grim in battleground states.

All the polling does is tell people who are awake what they already know.

He’s not a unbiased actor, and the more he tweets nonsense like his opinions of debates or making bets the less he seems like he knows anything special. Also the more you’re like “well anyone can do it” the more his opinion seems less important and he is just a personality livignoff of his reputation.

Now you can continue to push this and I can go back to ignoring you.

 

[trappedintime]

He’s not a unbiased actor, and the more he tweets and the more you’re like “well anyone can do it” the more his opinion seems less important and he is just a personality.

Now you can continue to push this and I can go back to ignoring you.

You’re trying to insinuate Silver wants a Trump win. It’s hilarious how far you dig your head in the sand to justify your dead ender position.

 

[Wargames]

You’re trying to insinuate Silver wants a Trump win. It’s hilarious how far you dig your head in the sand to justify your dead ender position.

No what’s hilarious is that I took you off ignore to respond to you again.

 

[trappedintime]

No what’s hilarious is that I took you off ignore to respond to you again

Reality is hard to look at, but we both know you’ll be running with “they did him dirty” (already are) to keep the bubble intact

 

[Wargames]

Reality is hard to look at, but we both know you’ll be running with “they did him dirty” (already are) to keep the bubble intact

They did do him dirty but politics is a dirty game.

I get it you feel justified to say “I was right” because he’s gonna have to step down, just like I still feel justified when I questioned your intelligence and showed your a conservative.

Like clearly we don’t get along brother, so this back and forth is pointless.

 

[trappedintime]

They did do him dirty but politics is a dirty game.

I get it you feel justified to say “I was right” because he’s gonna have to step down, just like I still feel justified when I questioned your intelligence and showed your a conservative.

Like clearly we don’t get along brother, so this back and forth is pointless.

It’s not that you’re wrong, it’s that you’ll ignore the evidence and blame the pool guy for the giant turd in it. It’s as infuriating as MAGA dolts rationalizing their own loser candidate’s make believe world.

Blaming everyone but the 81 year old who has put his cognitive inabilities on display for the world to see isn’t thoughtful, it isn’t helpful, it isn’t realistic. No one did Joe dirty. In fact I’d say with all the accommodations and hiding he agreed to, he did us dirty putting the country in this mess this late in the game. One day you’ll come to grips that he was never fit to serve another term and had no business running like he could.

 

[jpzx]

Trump said “he owed his life to immigration”, because he’d turned his head to the right toward a chart about border crossings fractionally before the bullet whizzed past his head, grazing his ear.

Trump attacks Biden and Harris in first rally since assassination attempt

In first rally with running mate JD Vance, ex-president jibes at leadership chaos within Democratic party

www.theguardian.com

 

[jpzx]

And

“At the Michigan arena, the former US president went on to predict a landslide election, asking the crowd whether they preferred he run against Vice-President Kamala Harris, to loud boos, or Biden, to cheers. But he said he would also also be happy to run against Michigan governor Gretchen Whitmer who, he said, has done “a terrible job”.”

It’s gonna be Kamala if Joe rolls down the stubborn mountain, and there’ll never be a President named Gretchen even as she has a good case.

 

[jpzx]

This might be the only thing I’ve heard Trump say as a politician I liked

“But Trump also pushed back on accusations that a second Trump presidency would be influenced by the extremist manifesto Project 2025 from the conservative Heritage Foundation and including scores of people close to Trump and his campaign.

The document, he said, had been produced by the “severe right – very, very conservative and the opposite of the radical left. I don’t know anything about it, and I don’t want to know anything about it.”

 

[jpzx]

Yet he did say earlier this week the Project 2025 author will have a position and deserves more. So he’s a fraud as always. Alright I’m done on a Saturday night.

 

[dmbrhs]

This might be the only thing I’ve heard Trump say as a politician I liked

“But Trump also pushed back on accusations that a second Trump presidency would be influenced by the extremist manifesto Project 2025 from the conservative Heritage Foundation and including scores of people close to Trump and his campaign.

The document, he said, had been produced by the “severe right – very, very conservative and the opposite of the radical left. I don’t know anything about it, and I don’t want to know anything about it.”

His own people wrote it. He knows exactly what it is. He has to back away from for any chance of winning. Plain and simple. Also, good luck with that whole "banning porn" part of it. That's how ridiculous it is.

 

[gry60]

The "you have no choice", "shut up and get in line" approach is going to work wonders!

As Jamelle Bouie put it on Chris Hayes's podcast, Biden is the pitcher and manager. Only him, as the current leader of the Democratic party, gets to decide when to take himself out of the race.

People can claim that the primaries weren't real, but unless the DNC illegally prevented folks from running (they didn't, there were two other Dem primary candidates), nobody really has a ground to stand on to invoke a redo of the primaries. Those insiders who are saying they had doubts about his health condition "a long time ago" could have tried mounting a primary challenge on that basis. Even then, the polls were already showing that most Americans think Biden is too old.

If he stays, the only way to get him out is to 25th'd him. Care to think about the fallout from doing that?

Also, how many of the names - that are not Kamala Harris - being thrown around have indicated that they might be willing to take over and mount a campaign from scratch with the election being in about 4 months?

 

[Wargames]

It’s not that you’re wrong, it’s that you’ll ignore the evidence and blame the pool guy for the giant turd in it. It’s as infuriating as MAGA dolts rationalizing their own loser candidate’s make believe world.

Blaming everyone but the 81 year old who has put his cognitive inabilities on display for the world to see isn’t thoughtful, it isn’t helpful, it isn’t realistic. No one did Joe dirty. In fact I’d say with all the accommodations and hiding he agreed to, he did us dirty putting the country in this mess this late in the game. One day you’ll come to grips that he was never fit to serve another term and had no business running like he could.

Bro what are you talking about? I was one of the biggest advocates for him not running again and complained that the primary was a formality.

So now you want to call me MAGA because with 4 months left I been worried about the chaos that would come from him stepping down and you’re saying I am blaming everyone but Biden?

The party until literally yesterday was split on if he should stay or go and they had to poison Biden campaign to get him out. Not to mention the public is aware of just how influential donors are, or like I said how much Citizen United gives them power.

The entire democratic leadership looks bad from this from Biden, Obama, Pelosi, and Schumer, but once again no one should complain and just accept everything like this was a formality.

Hopefully they can just get their **** together and get behind Kamala but you can’t assume that with this group.

 

[gry60]

The country’s most conservative court just reinstated a Jim Crow-era voter suppression law

Mississippi’s felon disenfranchisement law was specifically intended to preserve white supremacy.

www.motherjones.com

The full Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals, which covers Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas and has become infamous for its fiercely right-wing opinions, upheld a state law dating back to 1890 that permanently prevents Mississippians from voting if they have been convicted of a list of 22 criminal categories, encompassing about 100 specific crimes, that include timber larceny, bigamy, and writing a bad check. The opinion overturns the ruling of a three-judge panel on the Fifth Circuit from August 2023 which invalidated Mississippi’s law, saying that it violated the 8th Amendment’s prohibition on cruel and unusual punishment.


Writing for the 13-member majority, Judge Edith Jones, an appointee of Ronald Reagan, said that the earlier court decision “would thwart the ability of the State’s legislature and citizens to determine their voting qualifications, and would require federal courts overtly to make legislative choices that, in our federal system, belong at the State level.” (All but one of the judges that signed on to the opinion were appointed by Republican presidents.)

 

[rexanglorum]

The ultimate goal is land, bread, roses, and peace but for now, I’ll settle for MAGA CHUD tears.

 

[osh kosh bosh]

I don’t trust Nate Silver. Between referring to himself as a blogger when arguing online, commenting on speeches, and getting checks from Thiel he’s more a personality than a pollster. Now he is making “bets” to stunt for his readers about hat Thiel salary. The guys a joke.

You don't need to trust his hot takes or his blogging, you just need to trust the model.


He's been the best political forecaster and it's not close.

Ignoring the best political model because you don't like his blog seems dumb.

 

[IATT]

This might be the only thing I’ve heard Trump say as a politician I liked

“But Trump also pushed back on accusations that a second Trump presidency would be influenced by the extremist manifesto Project 2025 from the conservative Heritage Foundation and including scores of people close to Trump and his campaign.

The document, he said, had been produced by the “severe right – very, very conservative and the opposite of the radical left. I don’t know anything about it, and I don’t want to know anything about it.”

 

[osh kosh bosh]

People can claim that the primaries weren't real, but unless the DNC illegally prevented folks from running (they didn't, there were two other Dem primary candidates), nobody really has a ground to stand on to invoke a redo of the primaries. Those insiders who are saying they had doubts about his health condition "a long time ago" could have tried mounting a primary challenge on that basis. Even then, the polls were already showing that most Americans think Biden is too old.

You can keep saying this but it literally means nothing to anyone.

Nobody cares.

If you think Biden's brain is broken and he's going to lose the election and must be replaced.

Not a single person who believes this is going to be cowed by Biden beating Dean Phillips in a campaign WHERE HE CONCEALED HIS COGNITIVE DECLINE FROM THE ELECTORATE.

Nobody gives a single ****.

Cry about it if you want to. That's not going to stop anyone from trying to avert disaster and save the republic by replacing Biden.

 

[atlsfinest]

If Joe stays it's over and even if Joe leaves it's probably still over at this point. Democrats have been outspending Trump 5-to-1 and Joe is still losing ground, imagine what will happen now that all these billionaires are in Trump's corner and the money starts flowing.

From what we've read it seems like Joe and his camp still believes it is a close race and within the margin of error. Obviously this is untrue and Joe needs to accept that he is an underdog and he needs to run his campaign as if he's an underdog.

The only chance the Dems (and at this point it's a slight chance) is to Hit the campaign trail at a breakneck pace over the next hundred days. I'm talking appearances in two to three states a day and as many interviews as possible (and looking strong and energetic in every interviews). This is something Joe is physically incapable of doing. I'm not trying to hear the "every single poll is wrong" cope.

 

[IATT]

 

[osh kosh bosh]

 

[IATT]

Support the troops….