***Official Political Discussion Thread***



Too good for cabinet posts……..

His delivery isn’t the typical scolding and shaming they love to do which rubs people the wrong way.

Ive been convinced, Biden should drop out in favor of a a Harris-Buttigieg ticket. I think it can thread the needle between not alienating the Democratic base on the one hand. But it can also appeal to the ideologically non aligned, vibes based swing voter who probably would be swayed by a narrative of a generational shift. Personally, I think that this age discourse is foolish but swing voters think it’s important.

Basically, Harris and Buttigieg combined is the closest substitute for Barack Obama. Between the two of them, they are youngish, articulate, composed, cosmopolitan but also Middle American, well educated but down to earth. They aren’t as inspiring but they do have law enforcement and private sector and military experience which I think appeals to those lumpen, suburban, swing voters out there.

I am also starting to buy into the argument that the personal identities of Harris and Buttigieg will throw the GOP off their messaging game. Right now, the GOP can talk about inflation and Biden’s age. That is favorable terrain for them.

Dangle a black/tamil women and a gay man in front of them and Republicans won’t be able to help themselves. They’ll start talking non stop about issues that swing voters don’t care about, e.g. the candidates’ Marxist parents; and the GOP will also actively alienate swing voters by being much more openly racist and sexist in their messaging. Swing voters don’t care about systemic injustice but they don’t like the optics of racist and misogynistic rhetoric.



Also, the VP debate would be like if Thanksgiving in a white family came early. Two millennials arguing would be great. If it breaks down into personal attacks, they won’t argue over who is better at golf, they’ll argue over who is better at Golden Eye 64.

“My opponent throws proximity mines on spawn points”

“I know you always pick Odd Job despite the house rules preventing it”

“Of the two people at this table, I’m the only one who does screen peak”

And so on.
 


French leftists to Nazis:

“They not like, they not like us”


Which reminds me.

Dems better cap off their convention by playing Kendrick’s banger. Better yet, getting him to make a remix about Trump and his crew.
 


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With this news Tim was better off not getting engaged.
 
Doesn’t history do that?

I just mean I don't think that's some larger democratic motivation or trend. Dude just wants to plug his model. If one of the major parties goes against it and still wins, that guy looks bad and likely loses money.

I'm sure some small but significant portion of it is him thinking he's Dr Dre and has The Formula, and he doesn't want chaos and authoritarian rule, but mostly from what I've seen of him, he's come up with his somewhat evidence-based but tenuous model, and thinks that guarantees the win and he wants to keep a major party adherent to it.

I get it. But at the same time, to me it's like that stat about winning Ohio, and that kept being true, until it wasn't. Can't be so laser focused in on your model that you act like it's the only path forward.
 
I just mean I don't think that's some larger democratic motivation or trend. Dude just wants to plug his model. If one of the major parties goes against it and still wins, that guy looks bad and likely loses money.

I'm sure some small but significant portion of it is him thinking he's Dr Dre and has The Formula, and he doesn't want chaos and authoritarian rule, but mostly from what I've seen of him, he's come up with his somewhat evidence-based but tenuous model, and thinks that guarantees the win and he wants to keep a major party adherent to it.

I get it. But at the same time, to me it's like that stat about winning Ohio, and that kept being true, until it wasn't. Can't be so laser focused in on your model that you act like it's the only path forward.

It’s information, like anyone else

But if the only time he has been wrong is 2000 and considering the controversies involved with that election, maybe should hear him out

Doesn’t make it the gospel
 


Getting spicy out there 🍿

Silver and 538 did not see Hillary losing… I don’t have much history with him other than his book that came out in like 2011, where he had a statement about Trump running that I’ll post in here if I can find it.
 
Ive been convinced, Biden should drop out in favor of a a Harris-Buttigieg ticket. I think it can thread the needle between not alienating the Democratic base on the one hand. But it can also appeal to the ideologically non aligned, vibes based swing voter who probably would be swayed by a narrative of a generational shift. Personally, I think that this age discourse is foolish but swing voters think it’s important.

Basically, Harris and Buttigieg combined is the closest substitute for Barack Obama. Between the two of them, they are youngish, articulate, composed, cosmopolitan but also Middle American, well educated but down to earth. They aren’t as inspiring but they do have law enforcement and private sector and military experience which I think appeals to those lumpen, suburban, swing voters out there.

I am also starting to buy into the argument that the personal identities of Harris and Buttigieg will throw the GOP off their messaging game. Right now, the GOP can talk about inflation and Biden’s age. That is favorable terrain for them.

Dangle a black/tamil women and a gay man in front of them and Republicans won’t be able to help themselves. They’ll start talking non stop about issues that swing voters don’t care about, e.g. the candidates’ Marxist parents; and the GOP will also actively alienate swing voters by being much more openly racist and sexist in their messaging. Swing voters don’t care about systemic injustice but they don’t like the optics of racist and misogynistic rhetoric.



Also, the VP debate would be like if Thanksgiving in a white family came early. Two millennials arguing would be great. If it breaks down into personal attacks, they won’t argue over who is better at golf, they’ll argue over who is better at Golden Eye 64.

“My opponent throws proximity mines on spawn points”

“I know you always pick Odd Job despite the house rules preventing it”

“Of the two people at this table, I’m the only one who does screen peak”

And so on.
Delegates have to vote for a democrat primary, it doesn't just defer to Harris. Many have already said a vote for biden is not a vote for harris.
 
Silver and 538 did not see Hillary losing… I don’t have much history with him other than his book that came out in like 2011, where he had a statement about Trump running that I’ll post in here if I can find it.

Yes he did.

I keep having to repeat this.

Nate Silver gave Donald Trump a better chance winning than any other election forecaster,

Nate in the final model run had Trump with like 33% chance. Far more than anyone else.

And broke down on tv how Trump could win and told everyone there's is lots of uncertainty in the election.
 
It’s information, like anyone else

But if the only time he has been wrong is 2000 and considering the controversies involved with that election, maybe should hear him out

Doesn’t make it the gospel
That’s not the only time he’s been wrong 🤣
 
Yes he did.

I keep having to repeat this.

Nate Silver gave Donald Trump a better chance winning than any other election forecaster,

Nate in the final model run had Trump with like 33% chance. Far more than anyone else.

And broke down on tv how Trump could win and told everyone there's is lots of uncertainty in the election.
Saying someone has a two-thirds chance of losing (Trump), even if you’re the best, doesn’t separate you as a forecaster. Especially when we got close to the election.
 
Saying someone has a two-thirds chance of losing (Trump), even if you’re the best, doesn’t separate you as a forecaster. Especially when we got close to the election.
You seem to have a fundamental misunderstanding of forecasts
 
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