***Official Political Discussion Thread***

[Wargames]

We’ve reached the stage where the narrative is every Dem in congress is brainwashed by money. They knew it was just a stutter but those damn money guys!

In Push to Change Biden’s Mind, Donor Writes His Withdrawal Speech

Joe Biden has been hit with calls from multiple high-ranking Democrats urging him to drop out of the presidential race.

newrepublic.com

A donor wrote a speech for Biden to give if he drops out.

That’s perfectly normal…. This is lobbying to a whole other degree.

 

[osh kosh bosh]

You responding with the nonsense above shows who keeps ignoring ALL the facts.

im not ignoring anything, i've adressed all these fake problems 1000 times.

- 4 months to the elections.

all the more reason for biden to step down. the only person stretching this out is biden.

- Biden is the sole decider of whether he should stay or retire (unless the 25th amendment is invoked).

hence the pressure campaign.

- " WHERE HE CONCEALED HIS COGNITIVE DECLINE FROM THE ELECTORATE." How the campaign presented him is irrelevant.

if you conceal an incredibly important fact from the electorate, you can't appeal to those results as the authentic will of the people. The primary means nothing. no one cares.

- The Democratic party insiders should have been proactive if they suspected that Biden wouldn't perform - to their satisfaction - on the campaign trail

Bidens team worked to conceal this from everyone.
you're argument is "why didn't you see through my lies earlier?" and also "trust me i can win"
the Party trusted Biden, he lied. and now he's lost the confidence of the party,
he's got no one to blame but himself.

The continued, public pressure campaign is sabotaging the perception of the Democratic party as a weak, disorganized structure. That can also impact turnout.

its about winning the election.

some people like the lose slowly, some people like to try and win. you are in the lose more slowly camp.

You overvalue the new candidate's age factor: the undecided crowd should already be swayed by Trump's record and the more drastic direction of his 2nd term agenda. They are not, so there's no reason to assume they will ignore the policies championed by this new candidate. In addition, more time spent bickering among themselves means less time is spent challenging the Trump platform (which is something the surrogates should be helping with too).

The voters care about age, and they decide who wins, i don't make the rules.
Biden can't challenge the trump platform BECAUSE HE'S IN COGNITIVE DECLINE.

The age problem is both perception and performance, voters think he's too old. and he's too old to run an underdog campaign.

Anyone on top of the ticket not named Kamala Harris will have to fundraise from scratch. Less than 4 months from election day. LOL!

fake problem. the existing funds will go to a super pac. and they will raise insane amounts of money whenever they are nominated.

Large donors putting their finger on the scale after legitimate primaries is undemocratic as ****. This will be used against the new candidate too, especially if Kamala isn't the replacement, considering that it's supposed to be her role as VP anyway (and it appears Kamala is not their favorite).

if a primary was held today Joe Biden would lose. The only reason he's in it is because of democratic elites creating a glide path for the incumbent.

Rank and file democrats want him gone. stop appealing to democracy. nobody cares.

 

[osh kosh bosh]

i refuse to believe Deray is this stupid.

Republicans are desperate to keep Joe on the ticket, and are making increasingly absurd arguments to justify this position.


no one should listen to them.

 

[trappedintime]

In Push to Change Biden’s Mind, Donor Writes His Withdrawal Speech

Joe Biden has been hit with calls from multiple high-ranking Democrats urging him to drop out of the presidential race.

newrepublic.com

A donor wrote a speech for Biden to give if he drops out.

That’s perfectly normal….

So wait, do you have me on ignore or not?

im not ignoring anything, i've adressed all these fake problems 1000 times.


all the more reason for biden to step down. the only person stretching this out is biden.


hence the pressure campaign.


if you conceal an incredibly important fact from the electorate, you can't appeal to those results as the authentic will of the people. The primary means nothing. no one cares.



Bidens team worked to conceal this from everyone.
you're argument is "why didn't you see through my lies earlier?" and also "trust me i can win"
the Party trusted Biden, he lied. and now he's lost the confidence of the party,
he's got no one to blame but himself.



its about winning the election.

some people like the lose slowly, some people like to try and win. you are in the lose more slowly camp.





The voters care about age, and they decide who wins, i don't make the rules.
Biden can't challenge the trump platform BECAUSE HE'S IN COGNITIVE DECLINE.

The age problem is both perception and performance, voters think he's too old. and he's too old to run an underdog campaign.


fake problem. the existing funds will go to a super pac. and they will raise insane amounts of money whenever they are nominated.



if a primary was held today Joe Biden would lose. The only reason he's in it is because of democratic elites creating a glide path for the incumbent.

Rank and file democrats want him gone. stop appealing to democracy. nobody cares.

just remember you’re engaging with someone who said how Joe Biden presents “doesn’t matter”. That’s all I needed to read to see the delusion.

 

[Nike Jordan]

 

[osh kosh bosh]

So Democrats want Biden to drop out and then let a handful of rich donors select the nominee?

Is that the plan?

the delegates will vote, as per the rules.

The DNC can pick a candidate in whatever manner it chooses.

Kamala will likely be the heavy heavy favorite tho.

 

[mplsdunk]

Joe Biden was supposed to be a one term anyone but trump guy.

His ego and entitlement is blowing up in everyone’s face now.

Dude is Mitch McConnell level of walking dead still running.

 

[Nike Jordan]

Joe Biden was supposed to be a one term anyone but trump guy.

If Trump didn't run again, Biden would not have sought a second term.

 

[trappedintime]

If Trump didn't run again, Biden would not have sought a second term.

Well that justifies it. I’m sold now! Keep him in. Those battlegrounds looking 10 pts worse than 4 years ago today will turn around any moment.

 

[mplsdunk]

If Trump didn't run again, Biden would not have sought a second term.

Of course trump was going to run again.

Biden has been the most unpopular president in recent times consistently and they had four years to find someone better.

Now the strategy of forcing unpopular upon us is backfiring horribly.

Who could have ever seen this coming???

The sad thing is they won’t learn from this, they will scold the voters and blame Russia and continue to prop up unpopular people.

 

[Wargames]

So wait, do you have me on ignore or not?

just remember you’re engaging with someone who said how Joe Biden presents “doesn’t matter”. That’s all I needed to read to see the delusion.

I do have you ignore, but there is a button that says “show ignore” and everytime I press it, I see your troll *** talking trash.

Anyhow after the primary I was told to just shut up and not to continue to express what I thought was a mistake Biden ran again because it was all decided. The party leaders knew what they were doing. This time I’m not going to stop because of a tool like you. I’m not going to just pretend like we haven't witnessed a **** show for the ages that shows the party leaders don't know what they are doing.

I spend most my time in hear calling out Eric Adams another politician with a habit of bad decisions and questionable fundraising habits. It would be dishonest to say I am not concerned about the leadership on this for those same reasons.

Anyhow this whole back and forth on this is moot. It looks like thr poison dagger letters have stopped. There is no better indicator that it not if Biden will step down, its when.

 

[HIM]

Regarding Nate Silver. Can someone explain this to me, because I feel like I’m for sure missing something.

I know he gets a lot of credit for his model giving trump a 30% probability in 2016 while others had him at around 2-5%. My question is, if an event only happens once (2016 election), how does that “prove” that one poll was better than the other, when both polls had trump losing. Maybe it was that 1% chance out of 100 simulations

I’m genuinely asking. Also, if 538 had Trump at 30%, why is Biden such a lock to lose when 538 had him st 49%, (unless I’m looking at the wrong chart on his website).

Genuinely asking, I changed my major in college because Statistics whooped my ***

 

[trappedintime]

I do have you ignore, but there is a button that says “show ignore” and everytime I press it, I see your troll *** talking trash.

You’ve got a funny idea of what makes someone a troll or “talking trash”. It’s just unfortunate your tether to reality is broken.

 

[gry60]

I really wonder how some of y’all have any accountability in your own lives when you can so easily blame all the wrong people to convince yourselves this was something done to you by bad people who want Trump to win.

Talking about yourself?

I'm not the one claiming to have been lied to by Biden in order to justify going through primaries again.

All I've read from you and osh kosh bosh are thinly veiled insults, talks of polls, and zero strategy. But apparently, I'm a dead-ender (who comes up with that ****?) with zero accountability.

Loading…

thehill.com

Clyburn said in a CNN “State of the Union” interview with Jake Tapper on Sunday that he still backs Biden “until he changes his mind” about being the party’s candidate.


“If you go to the convention, have an open process in the convention, It will come out the same way it came out in 1968, 1972 and 1980,” Clyburn said.

“When we had a contested process on the floor of the convention in 1980, we lost an incumbent president and in 1972, we carried one state, Massachusetts, and the District of Columbia,” he continued. “And all of us know what happened in 1968 when we ran Lyndon Johnson out of the race, with a great record Lyndon Johnson had, got rid of him over one issue, the Vietnam War. Here, we are now using one issue to get rid of a president, the result would be the same.”

Despite acknowledging the rising concerns fellow Democrats have about Biden’s candidacy, the long-time Biden ally said he is still standing by the president.

“I support Joe Biden. He is still in this race. He will be the nominee if he stays in the race,” Clyburn said. “And I think all of us should look for ways to coalesce around that candidate.”

How's what I'm saying different from what Clyburn is saying? The decision rests with Biden, and public bickering will negatively impact the election for Democrats.

And let's be real: if Biden stays in, we have deeper problems as a country if, come November, swing state voters choose to go with a candidate who will sell them down the river for a pat on the back and a few dollars.

 

[moonman818]

we (barely) lived through four years of the orange guy and the Dems continue to shoot themselves in the foot

 

[moonman818]

No one is gonna replace Biden and get even remotely close to defeating Trump. They need to cut the **** like yesterday

 

[dwalk31]

If Biden drops out of the race, would he also have to resign the presidency? If so, VP Harris will be the next president either way.

 

[moonman818]

Yall, racist Delk is back?

You know election season here

 

[Wargames]

Talking about yourself?

I'm not the one claiming to have been lied to by Biden in order to justify going through primaries again.

All I've read from you and osh kosh bosh are thinly veiled insults, talks of polls, and zero strategy. But apparently, I'm a dead-ender (who comes up with that ****?) with zero accountability.

Loading…

thehill.com

How's what I'm saying different from what Clyburn is saying? The decision rests with Biden, and public bickering will negatively impact the election for Democrats.

And let's be real: if Biden stays in, we have deeper problems as a country if, come November, swing state voters choose to go with a candidate who will sell them down the river for a pat on the back and a few dollars.

I think Biden is dropping. Its too much, between the voter polls, donors ending fundraising, and the letter campaign. He doesn't have a leg to stand on.

Honestly the only hope is the party quickly gets behind Kamala AND at the same time Biden doesn't hold any sort of grudge and goes out strong both in support of her and in winding down his presidency.

Everyone is acting like LBJ didn't stop his campaign and then nixon a multi-election loser didn't finally beat mondale to win. This is a unprecedented situation and all the same people who got us here have to get us out.

 

[trappedintime]

Regarding Nate Silver. Can someone explain this to me, because I feel like I’m for sure missing something.

I know he gets a lot of credit for his model giving trump a 30% probability in 2016 while others had him at around 2-5%. My question is, if an event only happens once (2016 election), how does that “prove” that one poll was better than the other, when both polls had trump losing. Maybe it was that 1% chance out of 100 simulations

I’m genuinely asking. Also, if 538 had Trump at 30%, why is Biden such a lock to lose when 538 had him st 49%, (unless I’m looking at the wrong chart on his website).

Genuinely asking, I changed my major in college because Statistics whooped my ***

I broke this down yesterday. First off, Silver doesn’t poll and isn’t associated with a poll. He has a statistical model. It’s been run for over a decade and his predictive models have come closer than any single poll or any other forecaster in that time period.

I also explained the 30% chance Trump was given is not the same as Biden having a 20-30% chance. Biden isn’t going to win the popular vote, whereas Clinton did and lost by a minute number of votes in 3 states, which is the part of the model that gave Trump such good odds. He threaded the needle while still losing most of the states the model expected him to lose. We also saw about a 6-7pt difference in the polling averages vs outcome. Trump overperformed, in part because many people were hesitant to admit supporting Trump, partly because many polls undersurveyed R-leaning voters.

Trump was also not underperforming his party’s candidates in 2016 polling by 8pts. And the most important part is that there was no ”broken leg” problem the model can’t account for. Biden is permanently (brain) damaged by such wide margins across parties that there isn’t a way to “fix” it. His message is poor to begin with and now it’s obfuscated by his near daily unfinished sentences, forgotten names of cabinet members, etc.

Then there’s the fact that he’s outspent Trump 3x on advertising and the polls have continued to slide toward Trump. The money advantage with Trump not having run ads yet and now having hundreds of millions for the last 90 days while Biden’s working with 1/4 or less of expected funds for this month and presumably the rest of the campaign.

Finally, you have the battleground map expanding against Biden. NH, VA, MN, NM have all entered battleground territory while his lead in the 2020 battlegrounds is now swung 10 pts toward Trump. NV is probably a lost cause, MI, WI and PA are looking strong for Trump.

So I tend to agree with Silver that Biden’s broken leg problem caps his ceiling while all momentum has further moved toward Trump. You’re in a position where Dems messaging will be desperation and double down on the tired “anyone but Trump” campaign that appears much less successful, perhaps due to Biden’s historically low approval ratings. No one had ever held office, had these numbers and won re-election. And that’s with functional brain activity, holding cabinet meetings and doing the job.

 

[IATT]

 

[Benny Hinn]

 

[dwalk31]

Wow

 

[essential1]

Alright. Now to run a campaign like Inspektah Deck on Triumph

 

[lovehateself]