A month is a long time in the NBA. Guys such as Dion Waiters have already had time not only to explode up the charts but also to fall back down. Anthony Davis has been able to tease us as a "Tim Duncan 2.0," then disappear because of injury. And others, such as Kyle Singler, Andre Drummond and Damian Lillard, have provided a steady stream of strong play.
If the 2012-13 rookie class members can learn anything from their play in November, it's how quickly the NBA landscape, and their personal slice of it, can change for better or for worse. Take a good look at November's top 10 because it's likely to look far different by season's end.
Lillard
1. Damian Lillard, Trail Blazers | Rookie card
He's been the best rookie who has played full time since Day 1. Sure, he was awful in a recent outing in Detroit in which he missed his first 11 shots. But those 11 attempts were mostly good or great looks that he just didn't finish.
Blazers fans and execs have to be smiling after watching him respond to such a poor start in that game. Lillard, who is making 56 percent of his driving shots when he ends up in the paint, kept attacking.
He also poured in a relatively quick seven points in the fourth quarter when the game was still in question. He did not let the bad start affect his future decisions, which is a very veteran thing to do.
Through 14 games, Lillard also has made 53 percent of his shots from 16-23 feet, making him one of the top midrange shooters this season. For comparison's sake, look at what some other point guards who were top-five draft picks did from that distance in their rookie seasons:
Derrick Rose made 43 percent, Russell Westbrook 38 percent, Tyreke Evans 32 percent and John Wall 30 percent. And, for good measure, here's what Portland's last All-Star guard, Brandon Roy, shot from this range in his best season, 2008-09: 43 percent.
Lillard is proving to be a very good drive-and-finish guy and an excellent mid- to long-range shooter. A bad game here and there is only par for the course, not something to be alarmed about.
Kidd-
Gilchrist
2. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Bobcats | Rookie card
Going into the season, there were concerns that MKG could not shoot and therefore his upside was minimal. This November, Kidd-Gilchrist has proved his critics right -- it's true, he can't shoot. But he's also proving that it does not matter, at least not when you have his amazingly unique set of skills in a perfect body for today's NBA.
Ask Thabo Sefolosha about defending MKG in the post. The rookie attacked middle, then curled away from help for an easy 2. Kidd-Gilchrist is very comfortable down in the paint, which is why it is so great to see him grab a rebound and start his own fast break. Unlike a more traditional big such as Al Horford, who can start the break with a hard ball push, MKG can maneuver through traffic and find the perfect angle for a layup, dunk or foul.
Speaking of Horford, one of the league's top defenders, ask him about defending MKG in space at the top of the key. He'll tell you how he was flat whipped off the dribble by Kidd-Gilchrist for an impressive lay-in.
Kidd-Gilchrist can't shoot, but he sure can face-cut; he slashes by his defenders down the lane to draw fouls or get buckets. Even if he never learns to correct his shot, Kidd-Gilchrist will still be a borderline star for the Bobcats. But if his range grows out to 18 feet -- shooting is the one skill almost all players improve on in their careers -- he clearly will be ranked with Lillard and Anthony Davis as the cream of this rookie crop.
Valanciunas
3. Jonas Valanciunas, Raptors | Rookie card
As November closes, the Raptors have to be pleased with their young big man. Averaging 10 points, 6 rebounds and 1 block in just 24 minutes per game is a good start, to say the least. And he's been even better than that lately.
Valanciunas showed an excellent offensive arsenal against Tim Duncan on Sunday, pouring in nine made shots in 13 attempts. He displayed baseline hooks with the left hand, baseline counters using a high-release jumper and beautifully soft touch shots from inside 12 feet. He is going to be a solid offensive player for many years, with the potential to be even better than that. Now, if he can just get to work on the backboards, he would be a cinch to be a long-term starter.
Davis
4. Anthony Davis, Hornets | Rookie card
At least when Blake Griffin got hurt, he had not played a real game yet, so fans didn't really know what they were missing. Davis, however, has been a revelation in the few games he has played, making NBA fans anxious to see whether he can keep it up.
Do-it-all performers at his age and size are rare. They capture the imagination of a fan base and let them dream of titles.
Drummond
5. Andre Drummond, Pistons | Rookie card
Drummond continues to impress. The key, though, is for him to understand why he has been able to do what he is doing, with a PER just shy of 20, one of the best offensive rebound rates in the league and a high field goal percentage thanks to his getting so many paint touches.
So how is he getting those touches? Just look at his play late in the third quarter against the Blazers on Monday. As Rodney Stuckey worked in the midpost, Drummond was running down the baseline when Stuckey suddenly settled for a step-back jumper (and answered the question "Why is Stuckey's PER south of 10?). Drummond was literally out of bounds as the shot was taken.
With Drummond matched with much stronger LaMarcus Aldridge and his team up by nine points, Lawrence Frank would have understood if Drummond had simply ignored the bad shot and run back on defense. That's what most players would have done. Instead, Drummond quickly used his feet to jump back into the paint and his arms to gain a space advantage against Aldridge.
As a rebounder, the goal is to put yourself in the best position possible for the ball -- if the ball bounces the wrong way, you still have done your job. In this case, the ball caromed high and agile and long Drummond was able to come down with it. It does not matter that he went right back up (also the right play) and Aldridge stripped him. Drummond is going to get stronger and craftier with the ball, that much we know. If he continues to make the high-motor plays he is making now, his ceiling is going to be very high.
Singler
6. Kyle Singler, Pistons | Rookie card
Yes, Detroit is bad. Consider that Rodney Stuckey, who has played 57 percent of the minutes available for the Pistons, was a combined minus-80 points in raw plus/minus entering the week. Meanwhile, the team's other core guys -- Greg Monroe, Brandon Knight and Tayshaun Prince -- all played more than 65 percent of the time and were minus-37 to minus-41.
Singler, who has played in a little more than half of the overall minutes on his team, was minus-1 for the season. It's early, and adjusted plus/minus over time will tell us more than just the raw numbers, but it is not a stat to be ignored. He is quickly becoming recognized as a sweet-shooting glue guy.
Roberts
7. Brian Roberts, Hornets | Rookie card
Roberts continues to impress despite his team's struggles. He was by far the Hornets' best guard in their blowout loss in Denver on Sunday. The Nuggets force guards to match their pace, but Roberts refused to run his team off its rails. Instead, he smartly probed the defense and took what was there at the right times. His teammate Austin Rivers, a fellow rookie, was not as adept at reading this game.
You can tell Roberts had a good deal of strong coaching overseas, and, as with Singler, the experience in Europe has eased his transition into the NBA. He's reading the game instead of merely playing it.
Henson
8. John Henson, Bucks | Rookie card
Being tall, long and coordinated is obviously a great place to start for an NBA player. Basketball IQ, though, is what carries a player with good physical measurements into becoming a strong rotation player. Henson is that and possibly more.
Henson flows into the game with ease and very often is in the right place at the right time. His upper body is clearly weak, but so is his lower body. And when he strengthens that area, his game is going to improve rapidly, as he'll be able to hold the space he's flowing to much better.
Harkless
9. Moe Harkless, Magic | Rookie card
The season is just a month old, but we shouldn't be surprised if Harkless ends up being the top wing defender of this class by year's end. He's already effective for an underrated defensive team that is rebuilding its identity on that side of the floor sans Dwight Howard.
Harkless extends his long arms fully when contesting jumpers. He leaves a hand in the passing lane to the rim when helping dribble drives up the floor. And he's been sharp so far in understanding his responsibilities in the Magic's full pick-and-roll defensive schemes, sagging on the post diver before recovering quickly to his man on the perimeter. This alertness, in terms of executing their schemes and when he occasionally has to scramble and find someone to check, is not often found in young players.
Shved
10. Alexey Shved, Timberwolves | Rookie card
Shved has managed his team well when he has had the chance and, now that Roy is out with knee problems, will have a strong chance to make himself a permanent part of the rotation. To do that, though, he'll need to be able to knock down shots. Or better yet, not take them from the perimeter until he can make more of them. He has been dynamite in the paint and solid from midrange, but woeful beyond 16 feet.
Using his 6-6 frame to score over smaller guards off drives or cuts in Minnesota's offense is preferable to clanging long jumpers. However, if he puts a lot of time into shooting better each day now, he won't be the first guy to see his shooting percentages improve during the season.
Click here for Thorpe's complete rookie rankings »
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Other rookie observations from this week
Jeremy Lamb, Thunder -- Nov. 26: OKC's record blowout of Charlotte meant a good amount of playing time for Lamb, but he still looked as lost as he did the last time he got minutes. Forget about his 0-for-5 from the field, it was his look of genuine shock that he did not earn a whistle when he got touched. It's as if he had no idea that his team was up 40-plus points and nothing short of blood was likely to draw a call. On the plus side, making mistakes in games gives his coaches plenty of content to cover in practice, so they will be hard at work on those issues in the coming days.
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Perry Jones, Thunder -- Nov. 26: Jones did not look as lost as Lamb in the Charlotte game, but he also got a chance to play with some rotation players who provided better structure around him. He looks like someone who can help this team in the spring if he can start earning minutes now. As OKC's team evolves, I'd expect this to happen more often. His energy and skills will be helpful against aging teams such as San Antonio and the Lakers.
Meyers Leonard, Blazers -- Nov. 26: Leonard gave us a glimpse of what he can do for Portland, at minimum, in the first quarter of Monday's game at Detroit. His first play was very nice, setting a downscreen then a cross-screen for his wings before settling in the block area. He then got a horribly high lob pass from Damian Lillard that he could not catch for the dunk, but he got a hand on it and ultimately came up with the ball and used a left-handed reverse to finish against Greg Monroe. It was the kind of play young guys mess up frequently, because they rush the finish. Leonard stayed composed.
Then he caught a pick and pop at the left-center area of the key and patiently looked off the helping wing, who was unsure he should leave an open shooter to contest Leonard. The defender retreated and Leonard calmly swished the jumper.
Playing with composure is such a big part of being effective in this game. But Leonard needs to bring energy, too, which he did on another possession late in that quarter. He kept alive a missed free throw by leaping over Monroe and using his long arms to knock the ball out to the perimeter. If Leonard can make these kinds of plays all season, he does not have to score in the post to prove real value going forward.
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Austin Rivers, Hornets -- Nov. 25: There's good and bad news regarding Rivers from the Hornets' game against the Nuggets. The good news is that he continually got inside and earned excellent paint shots, using big-time change of speed moves and his strong body to blow by defenders. The bad news is his inability to finish shots, which has been a problem for him all year thus far. It was his third game with eight missed shots out of 12 or fewer attempts. The game is just way too fast for him now, but it won't get any slower if he stops trying to attack. These are his growing pains. If the Hornets were trying to win a ring, then he should be more conservative. But they are not, nor should they be, so the best way for Rivers to figure the game out is to consistently play the way he is playing.
Dion Waiters, Cavaliers -- Nov. 23: Waiters still looks like a more dribble-happy version of Marcus Thornton with a bigger upside. His raw numbers looked good against the Magic -- he scored 25 points and dished out 5 assists with no turnovers. But I counted him shooting 3-for-10 on bad shots, meaning he missed seven times when he had far better options than what he chose: step-back 3s with time on the clock, a one-on-three transition drive and "hope" shot, and forced long jumpers.
During Cleveland's recent five-game stretch, he made five shots per game and missed 12 per game, which is tough to swallow when Cleveland lost four of those games by close margins. If Waiters learns the value of good shot selection, he'll see his shooting percentages go up while his team wins more games.